Shams: Fox gets max extension.

[Special_Puppy]

He's entering his prime, it was a no brainer at the time to trade for him, and the extension was agreed upon then.
Winning the lottery and getting Harper wasn't expected.

Getting Harper should have encouraged them to not extend Fox for this much

[tmorgan]

This reminds me alot of the Rashard Lewis or OG deals, where fans have sticker shock and seem to not understand what it takes to get premium players.

There’s the disconnect, the actual point of contention, then.

You think Fox is a premium player. I do not.

[One_and_Done]

This reminds me alot of the Rashard Lewis or OG deals, where fans have sticker shock and seem to not understand what it takes to get premium players.

There’s the disconnect, the actual point of contention, then.

You think Fox is a premium player. I do not.

Uhuh. Is he better than Rashard Lewis & OG?

[tmorgan]

This reminds me alot of the Rashard Lewis or OG deals, where fans have sticker shock and seem to not understand what it takes to get premium players.

There’s the disconnect, the actual point of contention, then.

You think Fox is a premium player. I do not.

Uhuh. Is he better than Rashard Lewis & OG?

Explain how your question is the slightest bit pertinent and I’ll answer.

[One_and_Done]

There’s the disconnect, the actual point of contention, then.

You think Fox is a premium player. I do not.

Uhuh. Is he better than Rashard Lewis & OG?

Explain how your question is the slightest bit pertinent and I’ll answer.

I just compared their situation. Do you think those max deals were bad?

[Mavrelous]

He's entering his prime, it was a no brainer at the time to trade for him, and the extension was agreed upon then.
Winning the lottery and getting Harper wasn't expected.

Getting Harper should have encouraged them to not extend Fox for this much

The assumption is they promised him that before the trade, they would have to go back on theirnword.

[tmorgan]

Ok, I’ll do it anyway.

Rashard Lewis had an elite skill, particularly for his era. He had a TS+ over 100 eleven years in a row as a perimeter big or oversized wing. In fact, often well over 100, career TS+ of 106 counting his end-of-career fade. He was known as one of the best, if not THE best, big shooter of his era. His defense was just OK and he wasn’t much of a rebounder, but for his time, yes, he was a premium player, but not an elite one.

OG Anunoby has an elite skill, he’s one of the best perimeter defenders in league with enough versatility to competently switch onto quick guards and even some bigs down low. He’s an efficient scorer (career TS+ 102) but not a prolific one, and doesn’t create much. I’d say he’s a premium player when healthy, which is the biggest knock on him — he doesn’t stay healthy. He’s worth his deal on a team with serious playoff potential, but doesn’t provide enough to justify his salary in the regular season because he misses too many games.

Fox has no elite skill. He has an elite trait, his speed, but in terms of actual results, nothing is elite. His career TS+ is 98, which I hypothesize is probably barely above average for a PG. So, again, average efficiency volume scorer, weak from outside, average playmaker for a PG, below average defense for the position. He’s made himself a better free throw shooter, which is admirable, but his draw rate has dropped at the same time, so it isn’t helping much. He’s a good player. In his best year, he was an All-Star. That was a while ago. That’s not a premium player to me.

[One_and_Done]

Ok, I’ll do it anyway.

Rashard Lewis had an elite skill, particularly for his era. He had a TS+ over 100 eleven years in a row as a perimeter big or oversized wing. In fact, often well over 100, career TS+ of 106 counting his end-of-career fade. He was known as one of the best, if not THE best, big shooter of his era. His defense was just OK and he wasn’t much of a rebounder, but for his time, yes, he was a premium player, but not an elite one.

OG Anunoby has an elite skill, he’s one of the best perimeter defenders in league with enough versatility to competently switch onto quick guards and even some bigs down low. He’s an efficient scorer (career TS+ 102) but not a prolific one, and doesn’t create much. I’d say he’s a premium player when healthy, which is the biggest knock on him — he doesn’t stay healthy. He’s worth his deal on a team with serious playoff potential, but doesn’t provide enough to justify his salary in the regular season because he misses too many games.

Fox has no elite skill. He has an elite trait, his speed, but in terms of actual results, nothing is elite. His career TS+ is 98, which I hypothesize is probably barely above average for a PG. So, again, average efficiency volume scorer, weak from outside, average playmaker for a PG, below average defense for the position. He’s made himself a better free throw shooter, which is admirable, but his draw rate has dropped at the same time, so it isn’t helping much. He’s a good player. In his best year, he was an All-Star. That was a while ago. That’s not a premium player to me.

I guess this is where we disagree, because it seems like you’re trying to create an artificial distinction here by referring to something called an “elite skill”. I don’t think that’s a holistic or helpful way to analyse a players value. Kyle Korver has “an elite skill” too, but it doesn’t mean I’d give him the max.

A more helpful starting point is to ask; “did Rashard Lewis or OG ever have a season as good as Fox did in 2023?” I’d say the answer to that is a decisive no. Not just because Fox was an all-star and all-nba player that year, but because he was simply more valuable and more impactful than those guys.

The next question I’d ask is “is there something about the way Fox plays that has a major weakness or hole in it, which offsets his value in some way?” Again, I think the answer is clearly no. He is an excellent offensive player, while also being above average for his position on D (even if you don’t agree with that, thanks to his size he doesn’t kill you there at the very least). He isn’t an elite 3pt shooter or anything, but he’s fine from there, especially as a primary ballhandler.

So the attempt to distinguish Fox from Lewis and OG doesn’t really work. He is better than those guys. More importantly though, he was exactly what the Spurs needed when they traded for him (much like Lewis and OG were for the Magic and Knicks respectively). The biggest need for the Spurs last season, and it wasn’t even close, was an star pick and roll creator to pair with Wemby. Not only is Fox what the Spurs needed, but the Spurs are what Fox needed. In SacTown he was paired with a 5 who can’t shoot 3s, and is a liability on D. Now Fox gets to play with a 3pt shooting 5 who is the biggest lob threat in the NBA, and the best defender in the NBA. Yeh, yeh, it didn’t look great last year, but I handwave that. It’s a small sample where Fox hasn’t had a training camp to learn how to play with his team mates, has a broken shooting finger, and is forced to play next to an elderly Chris Paul (due to a promise made to start him). Next year should look completely different, and if it doesn’t then they’ll look to move Fox… but you have to give it a try, given the position you’re in.

SVG had a comment about the Rashard Lewis trade which I think is useful to cite here. He said pundits ripping that deal weren’t looking at what a small market has to pay to get a player. The Spurs aren’t LA or NY, and even NY needed to max out OG, they’re going to need to pay guys to keep them. Fox is the biggest addition of a new player who wanted to go there, excepting perhaps LMA. Those are literally the only 2 guys of note to ever choose the Spurs. It’s just not smart business to try and lowball the stars who do want to pick your team. I honestly wonder if we’d still be hearing this if the Spurs had traded for KD and given him his max.

[tmorgan]

I guess this is where we disagree, because it seems like you’re trying to create an artificial distinction here by referring to something called an “elite skill”. I don’t think that’s a holistic or helpful way to analyse a players value. Kyle Korver has “an elite skill” too, but it doesn’t mean I’d give him the max.

A more helpful starting point is to ask; “did Rashard Lewis or OG ever have a season as good as Fox did in 2023?” I’d say the answer to that is a decisive no. Not just because Fox was an all-star and all-nba player that year, but because he was simply more valuable and more impactful than those guys.

The next question I’d ask is “is there something about the way Fox plays that has a major weakness or hole in it, which offsets his value in some way?” Again, I think the answer is clearly no. He is an excellent offensive player, while also being above average for his position on D (even if you don’t agree with that, thanks to his size he doesn’t kill you there at the very least). He isn’t an elite 3pt shooter or anything, but he’s fine from there, especially as a primary ballhandler.

So the attempt to distinguish Fox from Lewis and OG doesn’t really work. He is better than those guys. More importantly though, he was exactly what the Spurs needed when they traded for him (much like Lewis and OG were for the Magic and Knicks respectively). The biggest need for the Spurs last season, and it wasn’t even close, was an star pick and roll creator to pair with Wemby. Not only is Fox what the Spurs needed, but the Spurs are what Fox needed. In SacTown he was paired with a 5 who can’t shoot 3s, and is a liability on D. Now Fox gets to play with a 3pt shooting 5 who is the biggest lob threat in the NBA, and the best defender in the NBA. Yeh, yeh, it didn’t look great last year, but I handwave that. It’s a small sample where Fox hasn’t had a training camp to learn how to play with his team mates, has a broken shooting finger, and is forced to play next to an elderly Chris Paul (due to a promise made to start him). Next year should look completely different, and if it doesn’t then they’ll look to move Fox… but you have to give it a try, given the position you’re in.

SVG had a comment about the Rashard Lewis trade which I think is useful to cite here. He said pundits ripping that deal weren’t looking at what a small market has to pay to get a player. The Spurs aren’t LA or NY, and even NY needed to max out OG, they’re going to need to pay guys to keep them. Fox is the biggest addition of a new player who wanted to go there, excepting perhaps LMA. Those are literally the only 2 guys of note to ever choose the Spurs. It’s just not smart business to try and lowball the stars who do want to pick your team. I honestly wonder if we’d still be hearing this if the Spurs had traded for KD and given him his max.

First off, the elite skill idea was to show why those guys got paid. Rashard was an elite shooter at 6’9” or 6’10” that was solid defensively. OG is an elite defender and efficient scorer with injury issues. Fox is an elite… finisher? Almost, but trending down. Shooter? No. Passer? No. Defender? No. He’s been a good clutch player, if you think that counts. There’s nothing in his game outside of a season three years ago that justifies this kind of contract.

As for the rest of the player eval you gave, all I can say is… WHAT?

Excellent offensive player? Obviously not. Average efficiency volume scorer with solid playmaking and ball control. Far from excellent.

Above average defense for his position? Absolutely not. Metrics nor eye test support this. And he IS somewhat small, claiming otherwise is silly.

He’s not “fine” from 3. At all. He’s had two solid years from three and the other five years have sucked. 33% career. Midrange is ok, good on floaters and lane pull ups.

I get the Spurs situation in terms of attracting free agents. It’s actually true for 75% or more of the league. Rarely do you see anyone clamoring to play outside of LA, New York, or Miami. Just the way it is. And yes, they needed a PG going forward for sure. But to agree to pay Fox as a max player is still a mistake because he isn’t going to produce like a max player. As I said before, lucking into Harper makes the choice even worse, but it was a bad choice anyway. They’ll be OK financially for now, I get that too, but he’s going to be hard to move if Harper shows out. On the extension, 55.5 mil AAV for a good-but-not-great player is too much.

[One_and_Done]

Yeh, we disagree; on both the facts, and how you analyse a player's value.

FYI, the shot diet you're taking makes a big difference when we assess what your percentage means. Fox is 33% for his career, but he's jacked up an absolute tonne of high degree o difficulty shots. Considering that, his shooting is fine.

[tmorgan]

Oh, and one more thing… it’s just one stat, but…

Fox’s All-Star and 3rd team All-NBA season was 7.4 win shares.
Rashard Lewis had EIGHT seasons with more than 7.4 win shares.
OG has zero, not that surprisingly. He had his career high in minutes this season and reached 6.5 (defense does tend to be under-represented, FWIW).

Shard was pretty impactful, it seems.

[tmorgan]

Yeh, we disagree; on both the facts, and how you analyse a player's value.

FYI, the shot diet you're taking makes a big difference when we assess what your percentage means. Fox is 33% for his career, but he's jacked up an absolute tonne of high degree o difficulty shots. Considering that, his shooting is fine.

Shot diet does matter, for sure. A player’s ability to get good shots is part of that. Fox is blazing fast and often a bricklayer. NBA defenders know this and play him for the drive, which often doesn’t work anyway. He gets plenty of open looks from three and often doesn’t take them because Fox knows his own strengths and weaknesses.

His shooting outside of 15 feet is not fine, good, above average, or any other word that means “good NBA skill”. He’s not horrible, if that helps.

[One_and_Done]

Oh, and one more thing… it’s just one stat, but…

Fox’s All-Star and 3rd team All-NBA season was 7.4 win shares.
Rashard Lewis had EIGHT seasons with more than 7.4 win shares.
OG has zero, not that surprisingly. He had his career high in minutes this season and reached 6.5 (defense does tend to be under-represented, FWIW).

Shard was pretty impactful, it seems.

I don't care about wins shares though.

[SkyHook]

A more helpful starting point is to ask; “did Rashard Lewis or OG ever have a season as good as Fox did in 2023?”

In 2022-23, Fox had a WS/40 of .146, a BPM of 2.5, and a VORP of 2.7. Lewis had seasons with as good or better WS/40 five times, BPM six times, and VORP six times.

[One_and_Done]

A more helpful starting point is to ask; “did Rashard Lewis or OG ever have a season as good as Fox did in 2023?”

In 2022-23, Fox had a WS/40 of .146, a BPM of 2.5, and a VORP of 2.7. Lewis had seasons with as good or better WS/40 five times, BPM six times, and VORP six times.

The thing is I don't really care about any of those stats. Nor do alot of people. Advanced stats can often be wrong, and many people don't find them to be a useful way to rate players.

[SkyHook]

A more helpful starting point is to ask; “did Rashard Lewis or OG ever have a season as good as Fox did in 2023?”

In 2022-23, Fox had a WS/40 of .146, a BPM of 2.5, and a VORP of 2.7. Lewis had seasons with as good or better WS/40 five times, BPM six times, and VORP six times.

The thing is I don't really care about any of those stats. Nor do alot of people. Advanced stats can often be wrong, and many people don't find them to be a useful way to rate players.

If you arbitrarily want to decide that Fox is elite based on your eye test and your own internal judgment then that's perfectly fine, just don't expect anyone else to subscribe to that view. My eye test and internal judgment says that there isn't much to distinguish his impact from that of Collin Sexton.

It's true that each advanced stat is an imperfect attempt to establish a level of objectivity, but when the major ones all have him ranked between the 75th and 134th best player in the league last season one can either let that inform their opinion or double down on their perceptions and biases. The AAV of his new extension places him at the 7th highest paid player in the league. That’s a massive disconnect to his value for me and, I suspect, for the vast majority here on RealGM and beyond. It would make for an interesting, yet lopsided, poll.

[One_and_Done]

You just compared Fox to Colin Sexton. I'm having alot of trouble taking that claim seriously.

[SkyHook]

You just compared Fox to Colin Sexton. I'm having alot of trouble taking that claim seriously.

My thoughts exactly when you said that Fox "is an excellent offensive player, while also being above average for his position on D." I'm comfortable in thinking that my assessment is far more accurate than yours.

[wemby]

I think it's very possible that the Kings were lukewarm or noncommital on a max extension, or at least noncommital on a max extension at the earliest possible opportunity, and Klutch immediately began exploring the trade market.

I think that goes against everything reported by credible sources at the time (Shams, Amick, etc), and it even goes against common sense for the reasons explained. Those things leak, and it would have been in Fox's best interest to do so rather than making himself to be the bad guy. Really makes no sense whatsoever as a theory, I'm stunned someone would even make that case.

The extension offer he turned down in the summer of 24 was only for $165M.

Yeah, that was the max extension he was eligible for at the time (3 years, 165 million)

If that was the strongest argument you could come up with, you might want to sit this one out.

[schaffy]

Uhuh. Is he better than Rashard Lewis & OG?

Explain how your question is the slightest bit pertinent and I’ll answer.

I just compared their situation. Do you think those max deals were bad?

OG didnt sign a full max though? And I dont have the time to look up what Lewis' deal would have been in that era. Maybe there is a disconnect there; I dont see anyone saying Fox is some sort of mid-level guy by any means. But certainly some are questioning giving him the full max given his career to date. Maybe he bounces back to have a 3 or 4 more years like he did in 23. But even if he does the contract feels like its at best a fair deal and not a good value one. And if he doesnt get back to that level, he'll be really overpaid. And given the new CBA environment everyone is still working through, I'm not as confident that in 2 or 3 years big contracts for players outside the top 25 are going to be as moveable as they have been in the past. So its basically no upside for the team and they take all the downside risk. Great deal for Fox though!!

I think most people recognize this was all agreed to prior to the trade. And that it would be hard to go back on your word now with Klutch. So even if circumstances might have changed given the lottery luck, they do need to move forward with it. But I think its still more than fair to question why, even at the time of the trade, the Spurs agreed to give him the full max. Maybe other teams were interested in him? We dont know to what extent other teams were willing to do the full max. The reporting at the time started with a handful of teams and then narrowed to 'he wants the Spurs' which leads me to speculate others maybe werent as willing to do the full max and his interest cooled on them. Similar to how Jimmy only wanted Phoenix because thats who was willing to pay him the max.