San Antonio early offseason in review (HW/bondom34/dbrandon)

[Gus Fring]

But then you don't find a taker for Pau until after the good free agents are gone and there are teams like Denver with unused space.

Pau has first crack at SAS's cap space next season. If we are talking about a soft rebuild, that doesn't make me comfortable versus being set up to have 20m and see if you can do better than a 37 year old Pau.

I don't see how it doesn't potentially infringe on their flexibility considerably.

Not necessarily. If the Spurs knew they were going to trade Pau after he opted in they'd more than likely have a deal in place by the first day of free agency just like they did with Splitter. It won't be that hard to find one team with capspace after the cap rises again next year who wouldn't want Pau plus an asset literally for free.

Well, immensely fewer teams will have cap space next summer than the number of teams that had cap space this summer. It will still be around, but not many teams project to have $16m in cap space, let alone are willing to give it up on the 1st day of free agency for Pau Gasol.

There will be teams next year who will take on a contract for assets. A 15 million dollar expiring deal really is not that much space when we're talking about a bottom tier team who knows they won't have big free agent acquisitions. The spurs only need to find one of those teams. Not as many teams will have cap space as this year but there will still be a ton more space out there than a normal year and it's not like the bottom tier teams will be using theres up immediately.

[Chinook]

So don't talk unless we agree, check.

But I'm not going to lament people talking to me if I started talking to them in the first place.

And you got that I don't want to be talked do unless I'm agreed with? Seriously? I'm saying that it doesn't make sense to paint people as talking to you against your will if you start the conversation with them.

What's HW's beef in this thread anyway? That people are being "irrational" in their disagreements? No one's insulting him or spamming him. No one is telling him he doesn't have a right to think what he thinks. People need to take a step back and look at this again if they feel like that there's been anything other than debate going on here. We haven't come to a neat consensus, but that doesn't have to be a big deal.

I don't think he has a beef. You seem to disagree with a ton of really basic logic which has been presented by literally every other person itt. A blind belief in something doesn't make it true.

It's not "literally everyone else itt" and it certainly isn't everyone else in general. And there isn't any logic here. There is evidence in RAPM and PnR Roll-Man defensive numbers along with anecdotal evidence weighed against RPM and other defensive stats. You can disagree with me on which side has the most merit, but you don't get to act like it's not debatable simply because you don't like it.

[franktony]

Appreciate the time and the work from all the mods

Just a few thoughts as a Spur fan after reading everything :

1 - I think we're old @ the C position, but Pau is basically the same age that Duncan was when the Spurs won the title in 2014. I know that Pau is not Duncan, but he is still a damn good player. Can't think of a better name to replace Duncan.

I'm way more concerned about Parker and the PG position.

2 - I'm not sure how the Spurs could have done a better job getting Pau and Dedmon @ the C position. We have to be realistic here : The most stacked team in the NBA with the reigning MVP got a top 3 player. Before thinking about matching up with GS, SA needs to think about the rest of the league. Last season the small front-court rotation was exposed by Adams/Kanter , especially after Duncan's good knee exploded.

3 - I don't agree about selling DG high. Not only the Spurs lack a replacement, but also because DG had the worst shooting season of his Spurs career. If anything, they would sell him low this offseason, not high. In a league that pays 8m/year to guys like Temple, 14m/year to 36 y/o Crawford and 12,5m to Arron Aflalo, I fail to see how 29 y/o DG in bargain 10m/year contract should have been sold because of his age. Even in a shooting slump, his impact on court was pretty high and 50% from deep in the playoffs give us hope that he bounces back next season. To me, trading DG would have been a stupid move by SA.

[bondom34]

And you got that I don't want to be talked do unless I'm agreed with? Seriously? I'm saying that it doesn't make sense to paint people as talking to you against your will if you start the conversation with them.

What's HW's beef in this thread anyway? That people are being "irrational" in their disagreements? No one's insulting him or spamming him. No one is telling him he doesn't have a right to think what he thinks. People need to take a step back and look at this again if they feel like that there's been anything other than debate going on here. We haven't come to a neat consensus, but that doesn't have to be a big deal.

I don't think he has a beef. You seem to disagree with a ton of really basic logic which has been presented by literally every other person itt. A blind belief in something doesn't make it true.

It's not "literally everyone else itt" and it certainly isn't everyone else in general. And there isn't any logic here. There is evidence in RAPM and PnR Roll-Man defensive numbers along with anecdotal evidence weighed against RPM and other defensive stats. You can disagree with me on which side has the most merit, but you don't get to act like it's not debatable simply because you don't like it.

We've had myself, dbrandon, HW, Chuck, caliban, 3 Bulls fans, shangrila, and I think one or 2 more say Pau will struggle vs. Golden State. You've stood on that for 2 days now with a really nonsensical argument based on 2 metrics, one of which isn't terribly reliable and the other irrelevant. Yeah, I'd say its pretty much everyone.

[Chinook]

I don't think he has a beef. You seem to disagree with a ton of really basic logic which has been presented by literally every other person itt. A blind belief in something doesn't make it true.

It's not "literally everyone else itt" and it certainly isn't everyone else in general. And there isn't any logic here. There is evidence in RAPM and PnR Roll-Man defensive numbers along with anecdotal evidence weighed against RPM and other defensive stats. You can disagree with me on which side has the most merit, but you don't get to act like it's not debatable simply because you don't like it.

We've had myself, dbrandon, HW, Chuck, caliban, 3 Bulls fans, shangrila, and I think one or 2 more say Pau will struggle vs. Golden State. You've stood on that for 2 days now with a really nonsensical argument based on 2 metrics, one of which isn't terribly reliable and the other irrelevant. Yeah, I'd say its pretty much everyone.

Pretty much and literally are two different things. But anyway, no, I gave you nine different metrics: DRPM, DWS, DRtg, DBPM, PER allowed, on/off points, on/off FG%, FG% Allowed and FG% differential. Those all said Pau was either good or at least neutral defensively last season. Your retort was that none those are as good as DRAPM, but you haven't actually supported that point. It's fine for you to believe it anyway, but don't act like I came with nothing.

And I've never claimed Pau would not have defensive issues against the Warriors. I did claim that the combination of the Spurs' defense, the Warriors not wanting to deviate from their offense to target Gasol every play and Pau's offense would mitigate the impact of his deficiencies to the point where he was still playable.

[Scoot McGroot]

Not necessarily. If the Spurs knew they were going to trade Pau after he opted in they'd more than likely have a deal in place by the first day of free agency just like they did with Splitter. It won't be that hard to find one team with capspace after the cap rises again next year who wouldn't want Pau plus an asset literally for free.

Well, immensely fewer teams will have cap space next summer than the number of teams that had cap space this summer. It will still be around, but not many teams project to have $16m in cap space, let alone are willing to give it up on the 1st day of free agency for Pau Gasol.

There will be teams next year who will take on a contract for assets. A 15 million dollar expiring deal really is not that much space when we're talking about a bottom tier team who knows they won't have big free agent acquisitions. The spurs only need to find one of those teams. Not as many teams will have cap space as this year but there will still be a ton more space out there than a normal year and it's not like the bottom tier teams will be using theres up immediately.

Well, now you're singing a different tune. It's one thing to say that teams will gladly take on Gasol's last year of his deal for free, and another thing completely to say that teams will take him on for assets. Of course, there are always teams that will take on a contract for assets, but what are you willing to give to convince one of a very few number of teams to take on Gasol on the first day of free agency and give up any hopes of their own free agency? My Pacers will have anywhere from $16-30m in cap space (based on Miles/Stuckey opting out and declining Lavoy Allen), but we'd want a chance to convince Blake Griffin, Serge Ibaka, or Gordon Hayward to sign with us long-term before we even listen to offers to eat contracts that eliminate any such space.

But, for a $15m expiring deal to not "really [be] that much space" also requires a team to have $15m in cap space. There just don't project to be too many of those teams; even less so teams that are willing to give up that cap space on day 1.

[bondom34]

Pretty much and literally are two different things. But anyway, no, I gave you nine different metrics: DRPM, DWS, DRtg, DBPM, PER allowed, on/off points, on/off FG%, FG% Allowed and FG% differential. Those all said Pau was either good or at least neutral defensively last season. Your retort was that none those are as good as DRAPM, but you haven't actually supported that point. It's fine for you to believe it anyway, but don't act like I came with nothing.

And I've never claimed Pau would not have defensive issues against the Warriors. I did claim that the combination of the Spurs' defense, the Warriors not wanting to deviate from their offense to target Gasol every play and Pau's offense would mitigate the impact of his deficiencies to the point where he was still playable.

So....everything box score related to defense outside of pure on/off. Which is, by and large, greatly unreliable. Terribly so.

And the way this doesn't matter is basically reliance on GSW being too stubborn to change their offense and run a simple set that Pau can't defend. Perfectly sensible.

[Chinook]

So....everything box score related to defense outside of pure on/off. Which is, by and large, greatly unreliable. Terribly so.

You need to actually support this in order for this to not be an "agree to disagree". There's a reason why RAPM isn't as big as it was several years ago, and it's not because we've become less amenable to analytics.

And the way this doesn't matter is basically reliance on GSW being too stubborn to change their offense and run a simple set that Pau can't defend. Perfectly sensible.

But that IS changing their offense, in the same way as the Spurs running PnRs against Gasol (if he were on another team) rather than having Leonard and LMA post up is changing their offense. I think the Spurs would gladly let GS pass the ball to a rolling Zaza and adjust from there. The degree to which he is the fifth option is higher than any other differential I think I've seen. Again, this isn't new for the Spurs to adjust to.

[bondom34]

So....everything box score related to defense outside of pure on/off. Which is, by and large, greatly unreliable. Terribly so.

You need to actually support this in order for this to not be an "agree to disagree". There's a reason why RAPM isn't as big as it was several years ago, and it's not because we've become less amenable to analytics.

And the way this doesn't matter is basically reliance on GSW being too stubborn to change their offense and run a simple set that Pau can't defend. Perfectly sensible.

But that IS changing their offense, in the same way as the Spurs running PnRs against Gasol (if he were on another team) rather than having Leonard and LMA post up is changing their offense. I think the Spurs would gladly let GS pass the ball to a rolling Zaza and adjust from there. The degree to which he is the fifth option is higher than any other differential I think I've seen. Again, this isn't new for the Spurs to adjust to.

Actually RAPM is bigger now than years ago. Apparently you've somehow ignored that.

And Golden State runs a ton of PnR. So running it against a bad defender isn't mind blowing.

[Chinook]

Actually RAPM is bigger now than years ago. Apparently you've somehow ignored that.

I mean, you gave it to me in a Google spreadsheet. And googling it, the second result was wondering why the results for 14-15 were so hard to find. Really doesn't seem like it's taken the league by storm, your love of it notwithstanding.

And Golden State runs a ton of PnR. So running it against a bad defender isn't mind blowing.

They do, but they run it with players who aren't their center quite often, and that wouldn't be the case if they target Gasol. If you aren't getting those other plays in there, the Warriors are a lot less dynamic.

[bondom34]

Actually RAPM is bigger now than years ago. Apparently you've somehow ignored that.

I mean, you gave it to me in a Google spreadsheet. And googling it, the second result was wondering why the results for 14-15 were so hard to find. Really doesn't seem like it's taken the league by storm, your love of it notwithstanding.

And Golden State runs a ton of PnR. So running it against a bad defender isn't mind blowing.

They do, but they run it with players who aren't their center quite often, and that wouldn't be the case if they target Gasol. If you aren't getting those other plays in there, the Warriors are a lot less dynamic.

As to 1, the entire reason RPM came out is for a plus/minus metric to be ready for ESPN, they dumbed it down. If you go to the PC board its incredibly active and popular, to the point that the author of the metric takes requests on it. You ignoring its use doesn't mean its not popular, it means you're not informed on it. And you realize it being in a google sheet means nothing right? I mean Smitty uses them for his cap calculations, and yet there are numerous places online where cap stuff is becoming more popular. Again, being uninformed isn't a lack of interest.

As for 2, Draymond Green is essentially their small ball center. Yes, he runs PnR. Yes, its very dynamic. No, Pau can't keep with him.

[Nolan]

I agree that they should have skipped on Pau. His offensive value won't offset the defensive issues, so I don't get how it helps them beat GS. But then maybe they don't care about that?

It's weird to say I know, but after watching them in the playoffs last season I'm not sure what else to think. Their Leonard and Aldridge ISO heavy offence was terrible and I don't get why Pop either implemented it or let it continue.

Because we didn't have any other offensive options aside from feeding those two the ball.

Overall I'm fine with what we did this summer. I'm not the biggest fan of Gasol but he is an upgrade offensively over what Duncan gave us last year and hopefully Dedmon will be able to pick up some of the slack on the other end.

Replacing Duncan isn't going to be our problem next year, getting something useful out of our guards is going to be our biggest issue.

[Chinook]

As to 1, the entire reason RPM came out is for a plus/minus metric to be ready for ESPN, they dumbed it down. If you go to the PC board its incredibly active and popular, to the point that the author of the metric takes requests on it. You ignoring its use doesn't mean its not popular, it means you're not informed on it.

I mean, since it's come out, there have been numerous other attempts to refine it. So to me that says that it's not popular. Like, PER (for some reason) keeps holding up. We don't see a ton of adjusted values for it. It make have an understated following, but it's hardly at the point that it's definitive.

As for 2, Draymond Green is essentially their small ball center. Yes, he runs PnR. Yes, its very dynamic. No, Pau can't keep with him.

So now that you've come up with an example of a center Pau can't guard, that means everything is broken? No. First, Gasol doesn't have to play against every lineup. The Warriors probably do want to run with this, but it's not sustainable. Second, they can just put Gasol on Iggy. While I think he'd score well, I doubt the Warriors would commit to AI playing big minutes as the sole player trying to score for their team. Just seems like a waste of their talent. Jump make him shoot.

[bondom34]

As to 1, the entire reason RPM came out is for a plus/minus metric to be ready for ESPN, they dumbed it down. If you go to the PC board its incredibly active and popular, to the point that the author of the metric takes requests on it. You ignoring its use doesn't mean its not popular, it means you're not informed on it.

I mean, since it's come out, there have been numerous other attempts to refine it. So to me that says that it's not popular. Like, PER (for some reason) keeps holding up. We don't see a ton of adjusted values for it. It make have an understated following, but it's hardly at the point that it's definitive.

As for 2, Draymond Green is essentially their small ball center. Yes, he runs PnR. Yes, its very dynamic. No, Pau can't keep with him.

So now that you've come up with an example of a center Pau can't guard, that means everything is broken? No. First, Gasol doesn't have to play against every lineup. The Warriors probably do want to run with this, but it's not sustainable. Second, they can just put Gasol on Iggy. While I think he'd score well, I doubt the Warriors would commit to AI playing big minutes as the sole player trying to score for their team. Just seems like a waste of their talent. Jump make him shoot.

Because people realized PER is crap a while ago. There are attempts to refine it because statisticians actually see merit in refining it. PER is known to have such massive flaws and can't be "adjusted". If it were adjusted it wouldn't be PER.

And I came up with a center Pau can't guard on the team you're saying Pau can guard. That's the whole point.

You know what, fine. We'll see when the season starts and Pau can't keep with them. Maybe this thread gets a bump then.

[Gus Fring]

Well, immensely fewer teams will have cap space next summer than the number of teams that had cap space this summer. It will still be around, but not many teams project to have $16m in cap space, let alone are willing to give it up on the 1st day of free agency for Pau Gasol.

There will be teams next year who will take on a contract for assets. A 15 million dollar expiring deal really is not that much space when we're talking about a bottom tier team who knows they won't have big free agent acquisitions. The spurs only need to find one of those teams. Not as many teams will have cap space as this year but there will still be a ton more space out there than a normal year and it's not like the bottom tier teams will be using theres up immediately.

Well, now you're singing a different tune. It's one thing to say that teams will gladly take on Gasol's last year of his deal for free, and another thing completely to say that teams will take him on for assets. Of course, there are always teams that will take on a contract for assets, but what are you willing to give to convince one of a very few number of teams to take on Gasol on the first day of free agency and give up any hopes of their own free agency? My Pacers will have anywhere from $16-30m in cap space (based on Miles/Stuckey opting out and declining Lavoy Allen), but we'd want a chance to convince Blake Griffin, Serge Ibaka, or Gordon Hayward to sign with us long-term before we even listen to offers to eat contracts that eliminate any such space.

But, for a $15m expiring deal to not "really [be] that much space" also requires a team to have $15m in cap space. There just don't project to be too many of those teams; even less so teams that are willing to give up that cap space on day 1.

There are teams sitting on 15 million in space right now and there are barely any players left to sign. You can't tell me there won't be teams, just from contracts expiring, retirements, player movement, and the cap jump that teams won't have 15 million in space next offseason. It really isn't that much, there's 30 teams in the league and 10 of them will have at least 15 mill right off the bat without doing anything.

And I said from the beginning that you would have to attach an asset to Gasol's contract in a trade. That's the only way these kinds of deals work, Its practically just an assumption. Obviously teams won't take on a 15 million dollar contract just to help the spurs out.

[Scoot McGroot]

There are teams sitting on 15 million in space right now and there are barely any players left to sign. You can't tell me there won't be teams, just from contracts expiring, retirements, player movement, and the cap jump that teams won't have 15 million in space next offseason. It really isn't that much, there's 30 teams in the league and 10 of them will have at least 15 mill right off the bat without doing anything.

And I said from the beginning that you would have to attach an asset to Gasol's contract in a trade. That's the only way these kinds of deals work, Its practically just an assumption. Obviously teams won't take on a 15 million dollar contract just to help the spurs out.

I guess I see a huge difference next offseason from this offseason. This offseason had the single largest cap jump in history ($24m jump). Next offseason has a big cap jump, but not nearly as big (only projected as $8m). As such, many fewer teams will have $15m in cap space on day one, and even less will be willing to use it day one. Gasol is owed $16.2m in cap, and now how much salary will be added to him as an "asset" to make a deal work? All of a sudden, you're looking for a team that has to have close to $20m. Even if 10 teams have $15m off the bat (which, with cap holds and teams looking to keep their own guys, I don't think there will be that many), how many of those are willing to use it on day one?

[Gus Fring]

There are teams sitting on 15 million in space right now and there are barely any players left to sign. You can't tell me there won't be teams, just from contracts expiring, retirements, player movement, and the cap jump that teams won't have 15 million in space next offseason. It really isn't that much, there's 30 teams in the league and 10 of them will have at least 15 mill right off the bat without doing anything.

And I said from the beginning that you would have to attach an asset to Gasol's contract in a trade. That's the only way these kinds of deals work, Its practically just an assumption. Obviously teams won't take on a 15 million dollar contract just to help the spurs out.

I guess I see a huge difference next offseason from this offseason. This offseason had the single largest cap jump in history ($24m jump). Next offseason has a big cap jump, but not nearly as big (only projected as $8m). As such, many fewer teams will have $15m in cap space on day one, and even less will be willing to use it day one. Gasol is owed $16.2m in cap, and now how much salary will be added to him as an "asset" to make a deal work? All of a sudden, you're looking for a team that has to have close to $20m. Even if 10 teams have $15m off the bat (which, with cap holds and teams looking to keep their own guys, I don't think there will be that many), how many of those are willing to use it on day one?

The asset will more than likely be a pick, which again is usually how these kind of deals go. Even if the cap didn't jump this year or next, there will still be teams with space simply just by the season ending. You say teams won't be willing to use there space, well some teams won't have much to use there space on, those are the teams the spurs would make a deal with. I'm not talking about teams that have a good chance at landing high priced free agents, I'm talking about small market teams who otherwise wouldn't have a good use for there space. Those are the type of teams that would take a pick to have Gasol's contract for a year. And it doesn't have to happen on day one, it can happen whenever. It doesn't even have to happen in the offseason.

[rosenthall]

To me the Gasol signing is a good way to keep the engine humming in a way that''ll allow the Spurs to keep racking up W's in the regular season and into the second round of the playoffs, but it doesn't give them a higher gear than they had last year against the best teams.

It seems like they've already committed to Turtle Ball anyway with Aldridge in the fold, so he might not be a bad fit taking turns with Kawhi and LA getting his own, but it's just hard to be a good defensive team with him on the court, especially if the other team is good at moving the ball side-to-side and can run a lot of pick n' roll.

Last year teams pretty much made their go-to offense in crunch-time the pic n' roll with whoever Rose and Gasol were guarding......and it worked. Neither one could defend it worth a damn and it created these lineup problems where we couldn't always play our best players to maximize our chances of winning in the toughest of moments.

As a team the Spurs are way better defensively than the Bulls so maybe there's enough mojo to cover up for his slow feet, but he definitely tied our hands somewhat despite his voluminous production.

[Texas Chuck]

I mean, since it's come out, there have been numerous other attempts to refine it. So to me that says that it's not popular. Like, PER (for some reason) keeps holding up. We don't see a ton of adjusted values for it. It make have an understated following, but it's hardly at the point that it's definitive.

Please refer to my signature.

[Dupp]

Gasol is s good signing and he'll be fine to play against the Warriors when they have ZaZa in. He won't he a huge plus or anything but serviceable.

I imagine crunch lineups of kawhi /lma as the pf/c combo. I think their gaurd play is far more concerning than their front court.


All this might not even matter they might fall short of the wcfs again. ( To the clips)