Oklahoma City early offseason in review (HW/bondom34/dbrandon/Slava)

[bondom34]

There is no right or wrong way to grade a team's off-season as long as you are clear how you are looking at it IMO.

That said, if you want to look at what OKC management had in their control since their season ended, one could argue they had a good off-season. at the same time if you think their trade of Ibaka influenced Duran't decision or impacted the team negatively overall, maybe you did not think they did. Or perhaps you think there where other moves they could have made to keep Durant.

Also, some may say what they had control over is not based on a single point in time, rather a culmination of moves and efforts. The fact that a top 3 player left a contender is a rather harsh reality and can be viewed as something that they did have plenty of influence over leading up to the actual decision by KD. Or perhaps you think they had no influence over the matter and KD was going to leave no matter what.

Overall, I for one do have to have to penalize them for losing one of their own FAs. Most top FAs stay with their teams (especially contenders) if for no other reason than money and familiarity and I do wonder if there were moves they could have made or moves they shouldn't have made. As good as the value of the Ibaka trade was, Ibaka was still part of their core and fit a very important role for that team. I think his demise was over-stated and their breaking up of the starting 5 by not only moving him but adding a ball dominant, non-shooter in Oladipo and and inferior PF to the mix was understated.

Do KD's statements about the team going younger as opposed to targeting vets change anyone's feelings about that trade or their off-season?

Of course it probably comes down to whether you believe KD actually meant that when he said it or if it was simply a future justification. He's seemingly been rather open (not sure about honest) about his motivations, but I even thought that trade might have influenced his decision and did not like it as much as most.

He came out right after the trade saying he liked it. So either:
1. He's lying the first time.
2. He's lying the second time.
3. It didn't matter.

Given that Ibaka's fit was awful and Oladipo made so much more sense on the roster, and he's been lying throughout the entire process, no. I'm at the point after another 2 months where I'm glad Durant is gone.

[MoneyTalks41890]

So what's the hit for the Price deal? 2.5/2.5 gtd?

I guess I appreciate them not doubling down on the mistake by cutting Semaj and keeping Price, but I'm with HW that it looks dumb now to have signed Price and it's going to look a lot worse if they are trying to fit anyone under the cap next summer and have to worry about that hit, even if it's stretched.

[Trader_Joe]

There is no right or wrong way to grade a team's off-season as long as you are clear how you are looking at it IMO.

That said, if you want to look at what OKC management had in their control since their season ended, one could argue they had a good off-season. at the same time if you think their trade of Ibaka influenced Duran't decision or impacted the team negatively overall, maybe you did not think they did. Or perhaps you think there where other moves they could have made to keep Durant.

Also, some may say what they had control over is not based on a single point in time, rather a culmination of moves and efforts. The fact that a top 3 player left a contender is a rather harsh reality and can be viewed as something that they did have plenty of influence over leading up to the actual decision by KD. Or perhaps you think they had no influence over the matter and KD was going to leave no matter what.

Overall, I for one do have to have to penalize them for losing one of their own FAs. Most top FAs stay with their teams (especially contenders) if for no other reason than money and familiarity and I do wonder if there were moves they could have made or moves they shouldn't have made. As good as the value of the Ibaka trade was, Ibaka was still part of their core and fit a very important role for that team. I think his demise was over-stated and their breaking up of the starting 5 by not only moving him but adding a ball dominant, non-shooter in Oladipo and and inferior PF to the mix was understated.

Do KD's statements about the team going younger as opposed to targeting vets change anyone's feelings about that trade or their off-season?

Of course it probably comes down to whether you believe KD actually meant that when he said it or if it was simply a future justification. He's seemingly been rather open (not sure about honest) about his motivations, but I even thought that trade might have influenced his decision and did not like it as much as most.

He came out right after the trade saying he liked it. So either:
1. He's lying the first time.
2. He's lying the second time.
3. It didn't matter.

Given that Ibaka's fit was awful and Oladipo made so much more sense on the roster, and he's been lying throughout the entire process, no. I'm at the point after another 2 months where I'm glad Durant is gone.

I think the first time around he would have claimed he would have liked it no matter what. He was still under contract and wasn't going to bad mouth potential new teammates or given an indication he was unhappy. And I'm sure he even said some kind words towards Ibaka about how he will be missed. He had to be diplomatic then.

I don't get the Ibaka's fit was awful, it seems rewriting the narrative about his defense and stretch ability being vital, even if he had a down year. Meanwhile, a ball dominant player without a reliable 3 point shot like Oladipo makes more sense? I get not wanting to potentially lose an UFA like Ibaka and getting assets you can control though.

I'm at the point after another 2 months where I'm glad Durant is gone.

I can tell!

[bondom34]

I think the first time around he would have claimed he would have liked it no matter what. He was still under contract and wasn't going to bad mouth potential new teammates or given an indication he was unhappy. And I'm sure he even said some kind words towards Ibaka about how he will be missed. He had to be diplomatic then.

I don't get the Ibaka's fit was awful, it seems rewriting the narrative about his defense and stretch ability being vital, even if he had a down year. Meanwhile, a ball dominant player without a reliable 3 point shot like Oladipo makes more sense? I get not wanting to potentially lose an UFA like Ibaka and getting assets you can control though.

This sentence is false though, entirely. The last season the defense hinged on Adams, not Ibaka. Donovan's system wasn't helping that, nor was Ibaka's health. This was something said since well before the trade. Even moving on from the free agency idea, given he was not performing and a bad fit outside literally a few playoff games I'm not seeing how you could say he was "vital" at all. Adams had been better the entirety of last season, and paying Ibaka that money to be a 4th guy didn't make sense.

And again, if he didn't like it then, say something. Don't piss and moan later. He didn't have to do anything, Lebron doesn't and gets what he wants. Durant would have had the same but he decided to just lie at some point.

[Trader_Joe]

I think the first time around he would have claimed he would have liked it no matter what. He was still under contract and wasn't going to bad mouth potential new teammates or given an indication he was unhappy. And I'm sure he even said some kind words towards Ibaka about how he will be missed. He had to be diplomatic then.

I don't get the Ibaka's fit was awful, it seems rewriting the narrative about his defense and stretch ability being vital, even if he had a down year. Meanwhile, a ball dominant player without a reliable 3 point shot like Oladipo makes more sense? I get not wanting to potentially lose an UFA like Ibaka and getting assets you can control though.

This sentence is false though, entirely. The last season the defense hinged on Adams, not Ibaka. Donovan's system wasn't helping that, nor was Ibaka's health. This was something said since well before the trade. Even moving on from the free agency idea, given he was not performing and a bad fit outside literally a few playoff games I'm not seeing how you could say he was "vital" at all. Adams had been better the entirety of last season, and paying Ibaka that money to be a 4th guy didn't make sense.

And again, if he didn't like it then, say something. Don't piss and moan later. He didn't have to do anything, Lebron doesn't and gets what he wants. Durant would have had the same but he decided to just lie at some point.

What was he gonna say?
I don't like this trade, I'm outta here? He's not LBJ either. It wasn't a one man show. It was him and RW so I don't think he would have said anything or could have said anything.

As for the fit, I am seeing it some now in a thread around March but

a. My statement about Dipo was echoed by dbrandon -"It's the same problem I referred to in the OP. Magic have assets but not fit, so any trade has to be a 3-teamer"

b. regardless of what you or others felt about Ibaka, it doesn't mean KD felt the same way and it didn't influence his decision. And why I said.. "As good as the value of the Ibaka trade was, Ibaka was still part of their core.. (my opinion about fit taken out since it is seemingly irrelevant as a. we don't agree and b. we don't know KD's true feelings) ..and their breaking up of the starting 5 by not only moving him but adding a ball dominant, non-shooter in Oladipo and and inferior PF to the mix was understated"

Anyway I'll stop since I know this will go on for some time and it's not worth revisiting. Just saw this thread and wanted to point out what I saw before KD said it.

[bondom34]

What was he gonna say?
I don't like this trade, I'm outta here? He's not LBJ either. It wasn't a one man show. It was him and RW so I don't think he would have said anything or could have said anything.

As for the fit, I am seeing it some now in a thread around March but

a. My statement about Dipo was echoed by dbrandon -"It's the same problem I referred to in the OP. Magic have assets but not fit, so any trade has to be a 3-teamer"

b. regardless of what you or others felt about Ibaka, it doesn't mean KD felt the same way and it didn't influence his decision. And why I said.. "As good as the value of the Ibaka trade was, Ibaka was still part of their core.. (my opinion about fit taken out since it is seemingly irrelevant as a. we don't agree and b. we don't know KD's true feelings) ..and their breaking up of the starting 5 by not only moving him but adding a ball dominant, non-shooter in Oladipo and and inferior PF to the mix was understated"

Anyway I'll stop since I know this will go on for some time and it's not worth revisiting. Just saw this thread and wanted to point out what I saw before KD said it.

The fit w/ VO isn't ideal, but its still massively better than Serge, and if Durant wants to do roster choices he was wrong there, flat out.

Here's a post I made months ago:

The problem is you're taking this to mean that Adams is a better defender than Serge, but let's act some context behind that. First of all, Adams only played 25 mpg this season. That isn't a minor role, but its easier to keep up that defensive intensity when you're resting on the bench for practically half the game. He played the vast majority of his minutes WITH Serge (21.5 of those minutes). So 3.5 MPG without him. Now, for those 3.5 MPG what was the competition like, we don't know. That's not a big sample size though. In comparison Ibaka had the pleasure of playing 7.7 MPG with Enes Kanter. Ibaka played 11 MPG without Adams. For the majority of his minutes he had to share the front court with Kanter. Adams very very rarely played with Kanter last season. So you can begin to see why the team might've suffered defensively without Adams. You can hopefully see now that we can't rely too much on these stats. Let's see what Adams does without Ibaka next season. He's going to have to play some minutes with Kanter too. If he gets 30 MPG like he probably will, that leaves 18 MPG for Kanter at back up center. I expect Kanter to see an increase in minutes next season, not a reduced role. At some point they have to start giving Kanter 25+ MPG to justify that huge contract. So Adams will probably find himself playing 7+ MPG with Kanter, especially because you can't lean on Illyasova for heavy minutes (he's older than listed and he just plays with a high motor all the time).
[color=#0000BF]To this, we've been over it a few times, and its not accurate. You can reverse roles as well, and it shows up in the data. FIrst, Ibaka off the court, Adams on the court, Kanter off the court (so you can't blame Kanter): 103.7 D Rating

http://nbawowy.com/xgtwm27aez

Next, the same, but flip Serge and Adams...113.0 D rating

http://nbawowy.com/rof3w43s1hmyxm6a3gw3cv7vi

Next, we can see that using any measure, DRPM, BPM, RAPM, on/off, etc that Adams was statistically a better defender than Ibaka last year.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/OKC/2016/on-off/

Again, 102 D Rating with Adams on court drops to 109 without him, the gap for Serge much smaller.

http://bkref.com/tiny/7Pxdv

And, Ibaka only played an extra 7 minutes over Adams. Can Adams play an extra 5ish mpg? Probably. Adams also rebounded about the same per game as Serge in fewer minutes, and posted a higher steal rate.

http://bkref.com/tiny/7Pxdv


Finally, after all of that, we have player tracking (which I'm not a huge fan of but can help). There we see Adams is a better defender in isolations
http://stats.nba.com/league/player/#!/playtype/isolation/?CF=TeamNameAbbreviation*E*okc&sort=Percentile&dir=1&Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PerMode=Totals&OD=defensive

Pick and Roll:
http://stats.nba.com/league/player/#!/playtype/roll-man/?CF=TeamNameAbbreviation*E*okc&Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PerMode=Totals&OD=defensive

And Post Ups:
http://stats.nba.com/league/player/#!/playtype/post-up/?CF=TeamNameAbbreviation*E*okc&Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PerMode=Totals&OD=defensive&sort=Percentile&dir=1

We also see Adams man shoots 5.2 percent worse when he's defending, vs. Ibaka's 0.9 percent worse.
http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/203500/tracking/defense/
http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/201586/tracking/defense/

So, through all of this we see a similar idea. Serge blocks shots (duh) but that isn't telling anything meaningful. Adams was a better defender overall. This is supported by not just something, but literally everything. I don't know what else you can see to prove it, but when everything other than "blocks" is saying he's better, there's something to it. Its like saying Kyle Korver is a better offensive player than James Harden because he's a better 3 point shooter. Its one small aspect but far from the only one.
The drop off from Ilyasova to Ibaka defensively is massive. Ilyasova draws charges, but he's not a true rim protector. He gets into foul trouble trying to draw charges. As far as switching onto quicker players, and protecting the rim the difference is massive. Not to say Ilyasova is a terrible defender, but you'll quickly see that at times he's so ineffective because of a lack of quickness that he needs to be subbed out. Ibaka ,IMO, is easily one of the best defenders at his position.
Never said Ersan was a good defender, but he's been passable everywhere other than Orlando. Given that he's playing next to a defender now instead of Vuc, I'm giving that time.


The upgrade from Waiters to Oladipo is a good one, though Oladipo isn't a great defender. He's nowhere near as impactful as Ibaka. From what I saw, it seemed like Dion was much better defensively last season than usual. I definitely think Oladipo is an upgrade but nowhere near the downgrade from Ibaka to Ilyasova. Ibaka can anchor a defense and is a presence in the middle. Oladipo is sometimes a good defender, but far too inconsistent. He could improve, we'll see, but he's not going to be an elite defender any time soon IMO.
Well, again, using last years numbers, VO was a similar defender to Serge. To add, he is replacing Waiters who flat out is an awful defender. Like his numbers are comparable to Kanter's defensively. So that's a pretty massive upgrade


As for rim protection, I don't know how you can say its not a part of defense. what is it then? Rim protection is huge because those shots are the most effective and it generally helps makes everyone else's job easier. The stats say Ibaka is like a top 5 rim protector. I think Adams is a good rim protector, but not elite. Him and Ilyasova/Kanter will be much worse than him and Ibaka in that aspect IMO. Yes, Gasol has good rim protection stats. That's because he's not a bad rim protector, he has the length and contests shots. The reason he isn't a good defender (though not as bad people make him out to be) is because he doesn't box out and his pick n roll defense is bad. In fact his bad pick roll defense probably has a lot to do with why his rim protection stats look even better. He drops closer to the basket because he knows if he tries to prevent a jump shot the player will just blow by him.
Didn't say its not part of defense, it just isn't the same as defense. Al Horford for example is a fantastic defender, better than most C/PFs in the league. Doesn't protect the rim. Pau Gasol is a sieve, and does.

So, yeah going from Serge to Ersan is a downgrade. But VO from Waiters is huge the other way, Adams was more impactful, and he's 22 and improving. He's not at all a good rim protector but he is an elite defender.

So yeah, the trade made sense to improve the roster and if you want to say "well they traded for a young guy" big whoop. You know what, I'd take AD over Dwight too, but AD's younger. Age isn't relevant to ability and fit.

So if KD didn't like the trade, but it still mad ethe team better, you'd argue you should not do it and keep a worse team for the sole purpose of appeasing him even while he flat lied and tells you he likes it? That makes no sense, nor does his connection with Oladipo, which was a public thing from what I knew. He likes VO. So that trade should have no bearing and was a flat out win. I hope Durant's career rots for being a liar in the end, and flatly he's a coward and shouldn't even be considered among the top competitors in the league. He's a liar, so I have no reason to trust what he's said at any point.

[winter_mute_13]

And again, if he didn't like it then, say something. Don't piss and moan later. He didn't have to do anything, Lebron doesn't and gets what he wants. Durant would have had the same but he decided to just lie at some point.

I think that's a bit harsh. I do agree about the "don't piss and moan later" part, but Durant is clearly not LeBron in terms of aggressively demanding control of his team. Dealing with that sort of personality has its own disadvantages.

KD stuck with the company line, and everybody was happy, until in the end KD didn't want to stick with it anymore. I can't say who's fault it is really from the outside, but the usual answer would be "a bit of both".

[bondom34]

And again, if he didn't like it then, say something. Don't piss and moan later. He didn't have to do anything, Lebron doesn't and gets what he wants. Durant would have had the same but he decided to just lie at some point.

I think that's a bit harsh. I do agree about the "don't piss and moan later" part, but Durant is clearly not LeBron in terms of aggressively demanding control of his team. Dealing with that sort of personality has its own disadvantages.

KD stuck with the company line, and everybody was happy, until in the end KD didn't want to stick with it anymore. I can't say who's fault it is really from the outside, but the usual answer would be "a bit of both".

One thing my mom always taught me: If you want something, ask.

He didn't. That's on him.

[Trader_Joe]

And again, if he didn't like it then, say something. Don't piss and moan later. He didn't have to do anything, Lebron doesn't and gets what he wants. Durant would have had the same but he decided to just lie at some point.

I think that's a bit harsh. I do agree about the "don't piss and moan later" part, but Durant is clearly not LeBron in terms of aggressively demanding control of his team. Dealing with that sort of personality has its own disadvantages.

KD stuck with the company line, and everybody was happy, until in the end KD didn't want to stick with it anymore. I can't say who's fault it is really from the outside, but the usual answer would be "a bit of both".

One thing my mom always taught me: If you want something, ask.

He didn't. That's on him.

How do you know he didn't?
Doubt he would make it public at the time.

And are you saying he should have had say?
If so, you don't like his opinions apparently so that would have been detrimental to the team in your eyes.

If he shouldn't have had say, then he was right to not say anything.

It seems KD is damned if he did, damned if he didn't with you and a lot of others. Granted I think he should be keeping quiet period, but he certainly has a right to feel a certain way about things.

[bondom34]

How do you know he didn't? If he did, then he lied publicly. So either he lied privately or publicly.
Doubt he would make it public at the time.

And are you saying he should have had say? Neither way, but if he wanted it so much he should have voiced it and been honest.
If so, you don't like his opinions apparently so that would have been detrimental to the team in your eyes.In this case, yep.

If he shouldn't have had say, then he was right to not say anything.

It seems KD is damned if he did, damned if he didn't with you and a lot of others. Granted I think he should be keeping quiet period, but he certainly has a right to feel a certain way about things.

So no, he could have voiced his opinion, been honest privately and publicly, and I'd have been all for it. You know who's done that? Lebron. You know who I'm fine with it? Lebron. You know who's won? Lebron.

If he liked it, great. If not say something or don't whine later. Seems easy enough.

[LoyalKing]

They lost a top 3 player in the NBA

That's an easy F

[spearsy23]

They lost a top 3 player in the NBA

That's an easy F

The top 3 player is still here.

[Texas Chuck]

They lost a top 3 player in the NBA

That's an easy F

That's way too simplistic. Dallas lost a guy who won the MVP the next 2 seasons in the summer of 2004 and that summer was absolutely a positive offseason for the team.

The question that has to be answered now is whether or not Russell Westbrook is good enough to build a contender around without KD. We don't know the answer to that yet, but I know about 27 other teams who would sure love to try.

I still think the Thunder are missing a piece or two, but if Dipo finally becomes the player he was projected to be and Adams continue to take steps forward like he has every year, they are going to be reasonably good.

[LoyalKing]

They lost a top 3 player in the NBA

That's an easy F

The top 3 player is still here.

Nah, he is playing with the best PG in the NBA right now. The guy that stayed is a top 3 PG and probably good enough to lead them to a bottom playoff spot though.

[LoyalKing]

They lost a top 3 player in the NBA

That's an easy F

That's way too simplistic. Dallas lost a guy who won the MVP the next 2 seasons in the summer of 2004 and that summer was absolutely a positive offseason for the team.

The question that has to be answered now is whether or not Russell Westbrook is good enough to build a contender around without KD. We don't know the answer to that yet, but I know about 27 other teams who would sure love to try.

I still think the Thunder are missing a piece or two, but if Dipo finally becomes the player he was projected to be and Adams continue to take steps forward like he has every year, they are going to be reasonably good.

Totally different. Nash wasn't a top 3 player in the league when he left Dallas. Not even close to that.

Losing KD to GS would be like Dirk joining the Spurs after 2003.

WB is fine player, but he isn't KD. OKC can probably get a playoff spot with some lucky but we have to face the reality here : they're done as contenders the moment KD chose GS over OKC. They aren't just missing a piece or two. Their ceiling is probably 2nd round exit if they're lucky.

[Texas Chuck]

They lost a top 3 player in the NBA

That's an easy F

That's way too simplistic. Dallas lost a guy who won the MVP the next 2 seasons in the summer of 2004 and that summer was absolutely a positive offseason for the team.

The question that has to be answered now is whether or not Russell Westbrook is good enough to build a contender around without KD. We don't know the answer to that yet, but I know about 27 other teams who would sure love to try.

I still think the Thunder are missing a piece or two, but if Dipo finally becomes the player he was projected to be and Adams continue to take steps forward like he has every year, they are going to be reasonably good.

Totally different. Nash wasn't a top 3 player in the league when he left Dallas. Not even close to that.

Losing KD to GS would be like Dirk joining the Spurs after 2003.

WB is fine player, but he isn't KD. OKC can probably get a playoff spot with some lucky but we have to face the reality here : they're done as contenders the moment KD chose GS over OKC. They aren't just missing a piece or two. Their ceiling is probably 2nd round exit if they're lucky.

Steve Nash wasn't a top 3 player. You are right. But he was clearly the 2nd best player on the team and clearly had the ability to be a multi-time MVP. And the Mavs lost even more talent that than with Walker and Jamison and then Finley the next year.

Bottom line winning isn't about fantasy basketball, its about team construction. Westbrook is good enough that they can win without another star around him imo. Maybe not. Maybe he isn't. But again, except for Cleveland and Golden State every other team in teh league would sure love to try.

Oh and 2nd round exit is pretty freaking good. For example the Sacramento Kings have gotten past that point exactly how many times? It's hard to be a top 4 team in the West. Just because the Spurs have managed to do it for 2 decades doesn't mean its easy. Heck my Mavs have been the 3rd best team in the conference over the last 15 years behind the Spurs and Lakers and we've only advanced to the WCF 3x.

[bondom34]

Top 3 guy is still there. They lost another player, very good, but that's way too simplistic. And it would take some remarkable lack of luck to miss the playoffs, not the other way.