Foshan wrote:shrink wrote:WhatsaTDot wrote:I'd like to see him end up in Minnesota and re-signed. I dont think he'd have much impact this year but I like him in years moving forward.
If you don't believe he wil have much impact this year, then why would you pay to have him on your team this year?
If you don't need the potential production, let someone else carry the downside risk of injury or character this year. Surely a "closer look" is not worth a pick, unless you have no faith in your scouting department. If Noel suddenly becomes so amazing that you want to have him, overpay with cap space. Even if someone outbids your price point, you lost out on player that was more than you would pay, and kept your pick.
It's not just about fit. It's about handling your risk, and it's about how an expiring RFA contract works. If he had two years left on a rookie deal, then he might be worth more to a lottery team. With one year, your most interested buyers would be teams who can get value from him this season, like playoff contenders willing to rent him. But since he's not likely a max player, you are paying for the RFA rights to match the highest bidder.
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Not sure how you would argue he wouldn't have much impact now. When playing at C for Philly, he took us from being a team rated late 20s to 6ish, and that was a team full of scrubs. Put that on an offensively gifted team and i can't imagine a team that is not immediately impacted.
What impact has he had in PHI for three years? Now that he's on the trade block, is it unreasonable for WhatsaTDot to question his impact now, after his years of injuries and unprofessionalism?
Foshan wrote:- while I agree it is a question of managing risk, I think it is much more likely that Noel doesn't even consider MIN as a destination. Considering it is pretty clear MIN needs defensive help, and Noel is arguably the best available now 9and this summer), I would think MIN would want to be in that conversation, and i think trading for noel is the only way that happens. imo
First, i should point out that the optimal free agent for MIN is a big bodied, rim-protecting PF, which would allow Towns to develop as a stretch-center. Noel's offensive limitations further limit Towns growth.
Let's list the benefits vs costs of trading decent assets for Noel, and compare it to waiting.
1. One season of his production, whatever that is
2. An up close look at how he fits with the team, on the court and off the court, and chance to talk him into staying
3. Bird Rights to match the highest offer he gets, if he doesn't like your offer.
Costs:
1. Your ASSET
2. Injury risk
3. Character risk, that might infect your other young talent
4. Losing him for nothing if you don't want to match the highest offer next summer
VERSUS waiting until Summer:
1. You don't carry the injury risk, the character risk, or infection
2. You don't get production (and what would 0-6 more wins really mean to MIN in the longterm?)
3. the top price is the top price - whether you offer it of match it with rfa rights.
4. You don't give up ANY assets in trade!
One last question, for anyone who is better at researching this than me. What was the trade return for other non-max guys, mid-season, in the final year of their rookie scale? I believe the rental process alone limits their value, and Noel magnifies this, but maybe the evidence demonstrates I'm mistaken.
So I wanted to focus on this:
