Random Rumor and General Offseason Discussion Thread

Post #1401 » by **loserX** » Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:52 am

No surprise here, but the Warriors have waived Shaun Livingston (needing the space his unguaranteed money creates under the hard cap). Livingston wants to keep playing so he will surely have suitors needing a backup PG with championship cred.

Post #1402 » by **MoneyTalks41890** » Wed Jul 10, 2019 2:01 am

loserX wrote:No surprise here, but the Warriors have waived Shaun Livingston (needing the space his unguaranteed money creates under the hard cap). Livingston wants to keep playing so he will surely have suitors needing a backup PG with championship cred.

Back to the Clips

Post #1403 » by **HartfordWhalers** » Wed Jul 10, 2019 2:14 am

loserX wrote:No surprise here, but the Warriors have waived Shaun Livingston (needing the space his unguaranteed money creates under the hard cap). Livingston wants to keep playing so he will surely have suitors needing a backup PG with championship cred.

I am a little surprised they couldn’t find a taker and acceptable compensation

Post #1404 » by **loserX** » Wed Jul 10, 2019 2:53 am

Woj says Khem Birch is back in ORL, 2/$6M.

Post #1405 » by **Mamba4Goat** » Wed Jul 10, 2019 4:05 am

Read on Twitter

Post #1406 » by **Scoot McGroot** » Wed Jul 10, 2019 3:26 pm

HartfordWhalers wrote:
loserX wrote:No surprise here, but the Warriors have waived Shaun Livingston (needing the space his unguaranteed money creates under the hard cap). Livingston wants to keep playing so he will surely have suitors needing a backup PG with championship cred.

I am a little surprised they couldn’t find a taker and acceptable compensation

Yup. Still had their 2022 and 2025 2nds and could pay some cash. I know they stretched him to minimize the hit this year, but his $2m dead cap was so small it seems like $2.5m and a 2nd could have pawned that hit off elsewhere. Unless there’s a chance he signs back at the minimum versus trades elsewhere and waived and being ineligible to sign back with GS?

Eskobar13 · Post #1407 » by **Eskobar13** » Wed Jul 10, 2019 4:10 pm

loserX wrote:Woj says Khem Birch is back in ORL, 2/$6M.

I mean I get why they'd do it for this cheap but man sure seems like they're not too confident on Bamba...

Post #1408 » by **pacers33granger** » Wed Jul 10, 2019 7:48 pm

Maybe deserves its own thread, but 538 has been doing some interesting calculations. Here's their top 10 bargains and overpays of the summer.

Post #1409 » by **loserX** » Wed Jul 10, 2019 8:03 pm

Another report on Kawhi:

https://www.tsn.ca/talent/raptors-focused-on-future-after-losing-kawhi-1.1335424

Upshot:
- Ujiri asserted that Kawhi was very up front with the Raptors...but implied by omission that Uncle Dennis wasn't
- Kawhi and Dennis made a list of requests to the Raptors which one source called "unreasonable" to the point of wondering whether they were even serious about having Kawhi stay
- Kawhi did ask the Raptors to go after Paul George, but the deal was not particularly close to happening and did *not* include Russell Westbrook as other sources have reported
- the Raptors have signed Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Stanley Johnson (I had no idea about the latter until just now! must have missed it)

Post #1410 » by **Slava** » Wed Jul 10, 2019 8:18 pm

pacers33granger wrote:Maybe deserves its own thread, but 538 has been doing some interesting calculations. Here's their top 10 bargains and overpays of the summer.

I had to laugh at the Rondo numbers. :lol:

orlando_joe · Post #1411 » by **orlando_joe** » Wed Jul 10, 2019 8:20 pm

Eskobar13 wrote:
loserX wrote:Woj says Khem Birch is back in ORL, 2/$6M.

I mean I get why they'd do it for this cheap but man sure seems like they're not too confident on Bamba...

with 15 man thats 3 guys per pos..if vuc or mo get hurt need a 3rd guy? don't see it as anything to do with mo

kobe_vs_jordan · Post #1412 » by **kobe_vs_jordan** » Wed Jul 10, 2019 8:21 pm

Slava wrote:
pacers33granger wrote:Maybe deserves its own thread, but 538 has been doing some interesting calculations. Here's their top 10 bargains and overpays of the summer.

I had to laugh at the Rondo numbers.

According to his Carmelo market value metric, you would have to pay a team 7 million dollars to take his vet min contract. That really made me laugh. They should of changed the metric to Rondo market value lol

kobe_vs_jordan · Post #1413 » by **kobe_vs_jordan** » Wed Jul 10, 2019 8:22 pm

pacers33granger wrote:Maybe deserves its own thread, but 538 has been doing some interesting calculations. Here's their top 10 bargains and overpays of the summer.

Replace Klay with Rozier on the overpay and the list aint too bad.

Post #1414 » by **pacers33granger** » Wed Jul 10, 2019 8:29 pm

Wasabi_Johnson wrote:Replace Klay with Rozier on the overpay and the list aint too bad.

I haven't looked much more into their projections so I'm not sure if they're factoring in Klay missing most of the season.

Post #1415 » by **loserX** » Wed Jul 10, 2019 8:33 pm

Saw this on the General Board and asked it there too: why is Kawhi so much lower than Butler and Kyrie? If next-season injuries are factored in, why is Durant so high? I need to do some digging into where their numbers come from.

Knosh · Post #1416 » by **Knosh** » Wed Jul 10, 2019 8:41 pm

loserX wrote:Saw this on the General Board and asked it there too: why is Kawhi so much lower than Butler and Kyrie? If next-season injuries are factored in, why is Durant so high? I need to do some digging into where their numbers come from.

Check out https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo.

Towards the bottom you see the projections for minutes played in future seasons. The model projects Durant to play more than Leonard next season. So probably just based on past minutes played without factoring in actual injuries and their timelines. Kawhi's projections is getting dragged down by his 17/18 season.

kobe_vs_jordan · Post #1417 » by **kobe_vs_jordan** » Wed Jul 10, 2019 8:42 pm

pacers33granger wrote:
Wasabi_Johnson wrote:Replace Klay with Rozier on the overpay and the list aint too bad.

I haven't looked much more into their projections so I'm not sure if they're factoring in Klay missing most of the season.

It's a fancy Elo rating system influenced by plus minus. So it inherits the same flaws of plus and minus like overstating role players like Looney. Good players that play with the second unit can potentially be dragged down if the second unit gets outscored.

Overall, list looks pretty good for a math model. Would been interesting to seeing a top 30 list of both sides.

mademan · Post #1418 » by **mademan** » Wed Jul 10, 2019 8:43 pm

Knosh wrote:
loserX wrote:Saw this on the General Board and asked it there too: why is Kawhi so much lower than Butler and Kyrie? If next-season injuries are factored in, why is Durant so high? I need to do some digging into where their numbers come from.

Check out https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo.

Towards the bottom you see the projections for minutes played in future seasons. The model projects Durant to play more than Leonard next season. So probably just based on past minutes played without factoring in actual injuries and their timelines. Kawhi's projections is getting dragged down by his 17/18 season.

Moreover, Kawhi didnt have that strong of a RS in terms of impact stats, which i think this rating draws on a lot. For reference, all 3 of Lowry/Siakim/Green scored higher than him in RPM. Gasol too, but he only played like 20 RS games with the Raps

Magic_Johnny12 · Post #1419 » by **Magic_Johnny12** » Wed Jul 10, 2019 8:44 pm

pacers33granger wrote:Maybe deserves its own thread, but 538 has been doing some interesting calculations. Here's their top 10 bargains and overpays of the summer.

Soooooo so glad Orlando isn't in the overpaid column for once.

I'm honestly quite shocked Rozier didn't make this list.

Knosh · Post #1420 » by **Knosh** » Wed Jul 10, 2019 8:56 pm

mademan wrote:
Knosh wrote:
loserX wrote:Saw this on the General Board and asked it there too: why is Kawhi so much lower than Butler and Kyrie? If next-season injuries are factored in, why is Durant so high? I need to do some digging into where their numbers come from.

Check out https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo.

Towards the bottom you see the projections for minutes played in future seasons. The model projects Durant to play more than Leonard next season. So probably just based on past minutes played without factoring in actual injuries and their timelines. Kawhi's projections is getting dragged down by his 17/18 season.

Moreover, Kawhi didnt have that strong of a RS in terms of impact stats, which i think this rating draws on a lot. For reference, all 3 of Lowry/Siakim/Green scored higher than him in RPM. Gasol too, but he only played like 20 RS games with the Raps

The impact stat this is based on is the CARMELO Wins above replacement. Kawhi did fine there for last season. Of the top 10 bargains his 10.8 WARP is second only to Butler with 10.9. Also significantly higher than Lowry/Siakim/Green.