Shams: Jrue for Simons

[Magic_Johnny12]

Holiday is the current better player
Holiday fits better
Holiday raises Portlands floor
Holiday is the better longterm asset
Holiday brings sooo much more than on-court production.

I’m really confused about the outcry.

“Overpay” is such a subjective word, it means nothing really.

Both teams seem like they got what they wanted and both will benefit from it, nothing more.

[djFan71]

Break it down for the next 3 seasons for Portland.

25-26. Salary is basically equivalent for POR. Jrue will be a better player, mentor, etc.

26-27. Jrue will still be a really good player. 27 trade deadline, Jrue will be available as a playoff run / then expiring piece for trades.
Summer 27, he's available as an expiring salary for trades.

27-28, if they still have him, he's an overpaid mentor one last year then off the books. Could even be a buyout candidate at the deadline to save some of that $.

[BlazersBroncos]

Holiday is the current better player
Holiday fits better
Holiday raises Portlands floor
Holiday is the better longterm asset
Holiday brings sooo much more than on-court production.

I’m really confused about the outcry.

“Overpay” is such a subjective word, it means nothing really.

Both teams seem like they got what they wanted and both will benefit from it, nothing more.

This is where I am.

Holiday at 3/104 > a resigned Simons at 3/85-90.

Usage is a factor here as well. Holiday has pedestrian raw stats but posted a wildly low 15.8% usage. Give Holiday the usage and shots of Simons and he post about the same PPG w/ far better defense. But thats not the plan - Holiday will be a 6th man who can play off ball w/ Scoot or on ball w/ Sharpe. He has shown the acceptance to do what is best for the team - notable in his usage dropping from 25% in MIL to 15/16% in BOS. He is a consumate pro and as PDX isnt tanking, isnt a FA destination and wants to lean into developing their backcourt of former Top-10 guys - Jrue is a great addition.

Overpaid by about 7M per year? Yes. I think PDX should have gotten 28 or 32 from BOS - but its not some horribly lopsided trade. Simons is empty calories. He is a generationally bad defender (Worse DRTg and DBPM by a good margin vs Jordan Poole). He plays soft and is pushed around quite easily. He wont be able to play much in the postseason as he will be targeted on defense and run off the floor. Good person, not the type of guy that is conducive to winning NBA basketball.

[jbk1234]

We see this kind of linear thinking all the time. Yet we see teams add old PG's to great success all the time. I remember when Dallas traded young Devin Harris plus multiple firsts for old Jason Kidd. Harris is immediately an all-star with the Nets and everyone laughed at Dallas. Then Kidd at age 38 was still a huge part of a title team.

Everyone on this board but me said Chris Paul was a bad contract. I said Phoenix should bring him in to help with their young talent and they went to the Finals.

I don't think Portland has the talent to be in the Finals in the next couple years, but do I think Jrue helps them be competitive and grow their young talent? Of course I do.

Not every player in your rotation needs to be within 18 months of each other lol.

The big reason people said PG was a bad contract is he spent half a decade plagued by injuries and routinely missed playoff games. The fact that he was finally able to stay healthy for a complete run for the Suns was great for them, but that was lightning in a bottle. Objectively, he was on a bad contract as his availability wasn't priced into it.

The problem the Blazers are now facing is that Grant and Jrue will carry them through the entirety of all there cheap deals and while that opportunity cost is presently unknown, it could be really high as exploiting that window is how most great teams are built. Moreover, Cornin made that move with team up for sale!

In regard to the bolded, is that really true? Probably applies to OKC this year but definitely not BOS the year before. Definitely not DEN the year before that. Definitely not GSW the year before that. Definitely not MIL the year before that. Definitely not LAL the year before that. Definitely not TOR the year before that.

Free agency is pretty much dead in the NBA. Saving cap space for signing players before rookie extensions kick in is an outdated way of thinking. To land anyone worth a damn now, you need to trade for them and that requires outgoing salary. Not advocating for giving out bad deals just because, but the best way to build now is to be an over the cap team (but under the tax) with expendable salary that you can use in deals. Jrue and Grant right now with 3 years left aren't great filler (though we just saw there was enough of a market for Jrue to extract some small positive value) but as those deals wind down they'll be fine to use for that. POR can keep all their young guys they like and trade Jrue and/or Grant for the additive pieces they really want if they feel there's a "go for it" window available..

A contract like Deni's equates to early Lopez, Gordon, KCP, Curry, Livingston, OG, Siakam, FVV, etc. Camara is early Draymond. The Warriors had the space to add Iggy because of rookie deals. None of those teams had half their cap tied up in two overpaid vets as they started putting it together.

[hugepatsfan]

The big reason people said PG was a bad contract is he spent half a decade plagued by injuries and routinely missed playoff games. The fact that he was finally able to stay healthy for a complete run for the Suns was great for them, but that was lightning in a bottle. Objectively, he was on a bad contract as his availability wasn't priced into it.

The problem the Blazers are now facing is that Grant and Jrue will carry them through the entirety of all there cheap deals and while that opportunity cost is presently unknown, it could be really high as exploiting that window is how most great teams are built. Moreover, Cornin made that move with team up for sale!

In regard to the bolded, is that really true? Probably applies to OKC this year but definitely not BOS the year before. Definitely not DEN the year before that. Definitely not GSW the year before that. Definitely not MIL the year before that. Definitely not LAL the year before that. Definitely not TOR the year before that.

Free agency is pretty much dead in the NBA. Saving cap space for signing players before rookie extensions kick in is an outdated way of thinking. To land anyone worth a damn now, you need to trade for them and that requires outgoing salary. Not advocating for giving out bad deals just because, but the best way to build now is to be an over the cap team (but under the tax) with expendable salary that you can use in deals. Jrue and Grant right now with 3 years left aren't great filler (though we just saw there was enough of a market for Jrue to extract some small positive value) but as those deals wind down they'll be fine to use for that. POR can keep all their young guys they like and trade Jrue and/or Grant for the additive pieces they really want if they feel there's a "go for it" window available..

A contract like Deni's equates to early Lopez, Gordon, KCP, Curry, Livingston, OG, Siakam, FVV, etc. Camara is early Draymond. The Warriors had the space to add Iggy because of rookie deals. None of those teams had half their cap tied up in two overpaid vets as they started putting it together.

The three highest paid Warriors on their first title team were David Lee, Iggy and Bogut. That's two bench players and their 5th best starter. You talk about GSW being able to "add" Iggy and POR "tying cap up in Jrue"... both Iggy then and Jrue now are about 20% of the cap and while I get Jrue is older, he's still as good and probably even better than Iggy was when GSW got him.

[jbk1234]

In regard to the bolded, is that really true? Probably applies to OKC this year but definitely not BOS the year before. Definitely not DEN the year before that. Definitely not GSW the year before that. Definitely not MIL the year before that. Definitely not LAL the year before that. Definitely not TOR the year before that.

Free agency is pretty much dead in the NBA. Saving cap space for signing players before rookie extensions kick in is an outdated way of thinking. To land anyone worth a damn now, you need to trade for them and that requires outgoing salary. Not advocating for giving out bad deals just because, but the best way to build now is to be an over the cap team (but under the tax) with expendable salary that you can use in deals. Jrue and Grant right now with 3 years left aren't great filler (though we just saw there was enough of a market for Jrue to extract some small positive value) but as those deals wind down they'll be fine to use for that. POR can keep all their young guys they like and trade Jrue and/or Grant for the additive pieces they really want if they feel there's a "go for it" window available..

A contract like Deni's equates to early Lopez, Gordon, KCP, Curry, Livingston, OG, Siakam, FVV, etc. Camara is early Draymond. The Warriors had the space to add Iggy because of rookie deals. None of those teams had half their cap tied up in two overpaid vets as they started putting it together.

The three highest paid Warriors on their first title team were David Lee, Iggy and Bogut. That's two bench players and their 5th best starter. You talk about GSW being able to "add" Iggy and POR "tying cap up in Jrue"... both Iggy then and Jrue now are about 20% of the cap and while I get Jrue is older, he's still as good and probably even better than Iggy was when GSW got him.

Bout started for the Warriors until Game 4 of the Finals against the Cavs. Iggy was the Finals MVP in 2015 and was the primary defender on peak LBJ. The current version of Jrue is nowhere near as good as that version of Iggy. He was the add that got the Warriors out of the West.

[hugepatsfan]

A contract like Deni's equates to early Lopez, Gordon, KCP, Curry, Livingston, OG, Siakam, FVV, etc. Camara is early Draymond. The Warriors had the space to add Iggy because of rookie deals. None of those teams had half their cap tied up in two overpaid vets as they started putting it together.

The three highest paid Warriors on their first title team were David Lee, Iggy and Bogut. That's two bench players and their 5th best starter. You talk about GSW being able to "add" Iggy and POR "tying cap up in Jrue"... both Iggy then and Jrue now are about 20% of the cap and while I get Jrue is older, he's still as good and probably even better than Iggy was when GSW got him.

Bout started for the Warriors until Game 4 of the Finals against the Cavs. Iggy was the Finals MVP in 2015 and was the primary defender on peak LBJ. The current version of Jrue is nowhere near as good as that version of Iggy. He was the add that got the Warriors out of the West.

I said two bench players and their 5th best starter. Bogut was their 5th best starter, Iggy was bench player/6th man and Lee was a scraps minute player. They had each of those guys making 20% of the cap, just **** POR has Jrue and Grant in that range now.

Iggy got GSW over the hump in the West... Jrue did the same for BOS just one year ago. And despite this over the top narrative that's gotten drawn on him, he really only declined last year in corner 3 point % which isn't really a declining trend type of thing.

POR sitting here with Jrue/Grant/Ayton is actually extremely comparable to GSW with Iggy/Bogut/Lee. The POR trio is probably better. Their issue of course is the rest of the roster compared to GSW. Ain't no Curry/Klay/Dray on their roster. But to your comments on team building, I fundamentally disagree with you. POR is doing exactly what good teams do having still really good vets on their bigger deals at a reasonable % of the cap while the young guys on their rookie and lower cost extensions are the "core" of the team. From a team building standpoint, what they're doing is a tried and true formula. They're just kinda kidding themselves into thinking their young talent is really that good.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

From a team building standpoint, what they're doing is a tried and true formula. They're just kinda kidding themselves into thinking their young talent is really that good.

That's the rub. This would be a fine move if Scoot and Sharpe looked like future stars. Then it would make sense. But because they don't, this doesn't make sense. But people keep telling us this is how good teams are built when we don't have the right foundation for what they are describing. It's just wildly contradictory.

[ReggiesKnicks]

From a team building standpoint, what they're doing is a tried and true formula. They're just kinda kidding themselves into thinking their young talent is really that good.

That's the rub. This would be a fine move if Scoot and Sharpe looked like future stars. Then it would make sense. But because they don't, this doesn't make sense. But people keep telling us this is how good teams are built when we don't have the right foundation for what they are describing. It's just wildly contradictory.

How else was Portland going to get out of the 8-12 range in the lottery?

Did you want them to sell-off everything they had built over the past 24 months? Teams don't do that.

Owners want to win. Fan bases want to win. There is a path to Portland actually playing meaningful basketball in April and Portland did so without sacrificing long-term assets.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

From a team building standpoint, what they're doing is a tried and true formula. They're just kinda kidding themselves into thinking their young talent is really that good.

That's the rub. This would be a fine move if Scoot and Sharpe looked like future stars. Then it would make sense. But because they don't, this doesn't make sense. But people keep telling us this is how good teams are built when we don't have the right foundation for what they are describing. It's just wildly contradictory.

How else was Portland going to get out of the 8-12 range in the lottery?

Did you want them to sell-off everything they had built over the past 24 months? Teams don't do that.

Owners want to win. Fan bases want to win. There is a path to Portland actually playing meaningful basketball in April and Portland did so without sacrificing long-term assets.

I want to build like OKC. This feels like the kind of move Sacramento would make.

[ReggiesKnicks]

That's the rub. This would be a fine move if Scoot and Sharpe looked like future stars. Then it would make sense. But because they don't, this doesn't make sense. But people keep telling us this is how good teams are built when we don't have the right foundation for what they are describing. It's just wildly contradictory.

How else was Portland going to get out of the 8-12 range in the lottery?

Did you want them to sell-off everything they had built over the past 24 months? Teams don't do that.

Owners want to win. Fan bases want to win. There is a path to Portland actually playing meaningful basketball in April and Portland did so without sacrificing long-term assets.

I want to build like OKC.

Trade a superstar for double his worth? That's how you want to build?

Maybe try and pick a realistic path to a re-build

This feels like the kind of move Sacramento would make.

Sacramento traded a good PG prospect at 21 years old for an All-Star Center. Try again.

Nothing you have said contains a lick of logic to it.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

How else was Portland going to get out of the 8-12 range in the lottery?

Did you want them to sell-off everything they had built over the past 24 months? Teams don't do that.

Owners want to win. Fan bases want to win. There is a path to Portland actually playing meaningful basketball in April and Portland did so without sacrificing long-term assets.

I want to build like OKC.

Trade a superstar for double his worth? That's how you want to build?

Maybe try and pick a realistic path to a re-build

This feels like the kind of move Sacramento would make.

Sacramento traded a good PG prospect at 21 years old for an All-Star Center. Try again.

Nothing you have said contains a lick of logic to it.

No I'm just disagreeing with you that Portland should be trying to make the playoffs this year. We still lack top end talent and should stay in the lottery until we get a player worth building around. You can dismiss my point and refuse to read my posts all you want but my stance is very clearly laid out.

[ReggiesKnicks]

I want to build like OKC.

Trade a superstar for double his worth? That's how you want to build?

Maybe try and pick a realistic path to a re-build

This feels like the kind of move Sacramento would make.

Sacramento traded a good PG prospect at 21 years old for an All-Star Center. Try again.

Nothing you have said contains a lick of logic to it.

No I'm just disagreeing with you that Portland should be trying to make the playoffs this year. We still lack top end talent and should stay in the lottery until we get a player worth building around. You can dismiss my point and refuse to read my posts all you want but my stance is very clearly laid out.

Your stance wasn't clear though. You clarified it now.

Rebuilding like the Thunder isn't realistic. It requires reading an MVP candidate, which your team doesn't have.

A Sacramento move is a bit weird since Portland was essentially what Sacramento is now for the past 8 years with Lillard and post-Aldridge. Might as well just say "this is a move Portland would do", since they did it themselves

But Sacramento actually traded a valuable asset for a good player. Portland, in this trade, is trading a mediocre player for a better player. Not at all similar to Sacramento.

Your plan is to continuing picking 8-12 for the next 2-3 years while you have to decide what to pay Scoot, Sharpe and then Deni Avdija? Out of 3 possibilities listed below, that's by far the worst one as a franchise, IMO of course.

1) Add talent for little long-term cost
2) Sell off all valuable talent and bottom out
3) Stay the course of picking 8-12 and decide how to pay prospects who haven't shown how they stack-up in meaningful basketball (Play-In/Play-Offs)

We will see where Portland ends up in 2-3 years, but my guess it's better than giving them a random prospect from the next 3 drafts in the 8-12 range.

[djFan71]

From a team building standpoint, what they're doing is a tried and true formula. They're just kinda kidding themselves into thinking their young talent is really that good.

That's the rub. This would be a fine move if Scoot and Sharpe looked like future stars. Then it would make sense. But because they don't, this doesn't make sense. But people keep telling us this is how good teams are built when we don't have the right foundation for what they are describing. It's just wildly contradictory.

What’s the feeling on Scoot? Just no chance at reaching his draft potential? PGs take a while and Simons was in the way, etc. I would think this trade gives him the best possible environment to make a leap. But I haven’t watched enough to know.

[Godaddycurse]

Holiday is the current better player
Holiday fits better
Holiday raises Portlands floor
Holiday is the better longterm asset
Holiday brings sooo much more than on-court production.

I’m really confused about the outcry.

“Overpay” is such a subjective word, it means nothing really.

Both teams seem like they got what they wanted and both will benefit from it, nothing more.

Thats the biggest question mark with his age. the worry is he may continue to decline and become an albatross

[DeBlazerRiddem]

Rebuilding like the Thunder isn't realistic. It requires reading an MVP candidate, which your team doesn't have.

Stock up on assets using capspace, draft two-way players, don't take short-cuts. Obviously Cronin is not Presti but Portland's only option to ever be really good is by drafting an elite player.

A Sacramento move is a bit weird since Portland was essentially what Sacramento is now for the past 8 years with Lillard and post-Aldridge. Might as well just say "this is a move Portland would do", since they did it themselves

Sad part is I cannot disagree. This move is very on-brand for Cronin and the rest of our front office team. If it wasn't obvious, I am very unhappy with current management. I still think Bert Kolde escapes way too much notice.

But Sacramento actually traded a valuable asset for a good player. Portland, in this trade, is trading a mediocre player for a better player. Not at all similar to Sacramento.

I dont care about Simons, I don't care about the picks. I care about Holiday's salary beyond next year. I don't know why that isn't easy to understand.

Your plan is to continuing picking 8-12 for the next 2-3 years while you have to decide what to pay Scoot, Sharpe and then Deni Avdija? Out of 3 possibilities listed below, that's by far the worst one as a franchise, IMO of course.

1) Add talent for little long-term cost
2) Sell off all valuable talent and bottom out
3) Stay the course of picking 8-12 and decide how to pay prospects who haven't shown how they stack-up in meaningful basketball (Play-In/Play-Offs)

Uh, #2 is definitely closest to what I would advocate. You seem to be trying to put words in my mouth and assign me to #3 when I have never said anything like that. After this post I am done with this conversation because I just dont care enough to engage with folks who wont actually discuss the words that I say and instead want to discuss what they want me to be saying.

We will see where Portland ends up in 2-3 years, but my guess it's better than giving them a random prospect from the next 3 drafts in the 8-12 range.

OK. Another entirely made up straw man attack on something I didn't say. Have a good rest of your tuesday.

[BlazersBroncos]

Holiday is the current better player
Holiday fits better
Holiday raises Portlands floor
Holiday is the better longterm asset
Holiday brings sooo much more than on-court production.

I’m really confused about the outcry.

“Overpay” is such a subjective word, it means nothing really.

Both teams seem like they got what they wanted and both will benefit from it, nothing more.

Thats the biggest question mark with his age. the worry is he may continue to decline and become an albatross

Holiday was injured last year and by all advanced metrics was a similar player to 23/24 - he had a down shooting year but plenty of guys bounce back from that and realistically it wasnt THAT bad -

23/24 to 24/25
TS% .58 -> .54
ORTg 121 -> 121
DRTg 113 -> 113
WS48 .133 -> .130
OBPM 1.0 -> -0.3
DBPM 1.1 -> 1.0
TOV% 13.7 -> 11.3
USG% 16.3 -> 15.8
OnCourt per 100 Poss 9.5 -> 8.7
On/Off per 100 Poss -4.1 -> -0.7

All metrics show he is the same player more or less as in 23/24 - in fact outside shooting he has a number of improved advanced metrics in 24/25 over 23/24.

[ReggiesKnicks]

Rebuilding like the Thunder isn't realistic. It requires reading an MVP candidate, which your team doesn't have.

Stock up on assets using capspace, draft two-way players, don't take short-cuts. Obviously Cronin is not Presti but Portland's only option to ever be really good is by drafting an elite player.

That is what Portland is doing. Acquiring Jrue Holiday isn't a shortcut.

[Godaddycurse]

23/24 to 24/25
TS% .58 -> .54
OBPM 1.0 -> -0.3

Hopefully these are due to his injuries, but he is also going from playing next to brown/tatum/white to playing with portland's cast.. i dont expect the efficiency to bounce back much. Happy to eat crow and for him to lead portland back to playoffs though

[BlazersBroncos]

23/24 to 24/25
TS% .58 -> .54
OBPM 1.0 -> -0.3

Hopefully these are due to his injuries, but he is also going from playing next to brown/tatum/white to playing with portland's cast.. i dont expect the efficiency to bounce back much. Happy to eat crow and for him to lead portland back to playoffs though

Valid point for sure. He is a career 37% from 3 guy so that 42% year in BOS was likely an aberration.

His 2PT% was actually better last year than in 23/24. Reality is that the TS% he posted his 1st year in BOS is likely career anomaly.

Even sticking around that 54% TS% is quite good for a guard.