Rumors, Random Thoughts, and Non-threadworthy Posts 17.0 The Least Random

[Texas Chuck]

Don't think it's thread worthy, but what would be the highest pick DAL could get for the '29 LAL pick along with a Hardy dump?

Was thinking maybe #15 since OKC doesn't have playing time for another rookie or #19 with BKN (maybe include a Martin dump). Would target Demin/Clayton Jr. for DAL.

I don't see teams valuing a pick 4 years in the future from a team led by Luka a ton? I wouldn't do 21 for that. But anything lower than 20 feels like Dallas shouldn't do it.

Man I can't imagine valuing 21 over an unprotected first that far away from any team, much less a team whose future is as unclear as the Lakers. And even then we've seen strong teams have broken years. I mean even if you get pick 30 you haven't sacrificed hardly any value.

But this board does not value upside variance like me for some reason and has way more confidence in knowing where picks fall years out than me.

[Godaddycurse]

Don't think it's thread worthy, but what would be the highest pick DAL could get for the '29 LAL pick along with a Hardy dump?

Was thinking maybe #15 since OKC doesn't have playing time for another rookie or #19 with BKN (maybe include a Martin dump). Would target Demin/Clayton Jr. for DAL.

I don't see teams valuing a pick 4 years in the future from a team led by Luka a ton? I wouldn't do 21 for that. But anything lower than 20 feels like Dallas shouldn't do it.

Man I can't imagine valuing 21 over an unprotected first that far away from any team, much less a team whose future is as unclear as the Lakers. And even then we've seen strong teams have broken years. I mean even if you get pick 30 you haven't sacrificed hardly any value.

But this board does not value upside variance like me for some reason and has way more confidence in knowing where picks fall years out than me.

I think brooklyn would trade 19 given how many picks they have this year

[babyjax13]

Don't think it's thread worthy, but what would be the highest pick DAL could get for the '29 LAL pick along with a Hardy dump?

Was thinking maybe #15 since OKC doesn't have playing time for another rookie or #19 with BKN (maybe include a Martin dump). Would target Demin/Clayton Jr. for DAL.

I don't see teams valuing a pick 4 years in the future from a team led by Luka a ton? I wouldn't do 21 for that. But anything lower than 20 feels like Dallas shouldn't do it.

Man I can't imagine valuing 21 over an unprotected first that far away from any team, much less a team whose future is as unclear as the Lakers. And even then we've seen strong teams have broken years. I mean even if you get pick 30 you haven't sacrificed hardly any value.

But this board does not value upside variance like me for some reason and has way more confidence in knowing where picks fall years out than me.

I value it a lot, but not from a team with a generational superstar who has said he is staying. Obviously things can happen, but I think people need to be willing to make reasonable assumptions about future value. Sometimes they will be wrong, but I think the odds that it is a higher value pick are fairly low.

[Texas Chuck]

I mean I have no interest at all in it from Dallas. But I know Sam Presti at 15 would say thank you very much and laugh at other teams preferring their later picks.

[Godaddycurse]

I don't see teams valuing a pick 4 years in the future from a team led by Luka a ton? I wouldn't do 21 for that. But anything lower than 20 feels like Dallas shouldn't do it.

Man I can't imagine valuing 21 over an unprotected first that far away from any team, much less a team whose future is as unclear as the Lakers. And even then we've seen strong teams have broken years. I mean even if you get pick 30 you haven't sacrificed hardly any value.

But this board does not value upside variance like me for some reason and has way more confidence in knowing where picks fall years out than me.

I value it a lot, but not from a team with a generational superstar who has said he is staying. Obviously things can happen, but I think people need to be willing to make reasonable assumptions about future value. Sometimes they will be wrong, but I think the odds that it is a higher value pick are fairly low.

Chuck values the minor chance at a higher pick more than the sure thing of a 21st pick. Floor vs Ceiling kinda deal. Really depends on how risk averse you are? Utah so far doesnt look too hot with their gamble on Cleveland and Minny so i can see why you're averse

[Texas Chuck]

I don't see teams valuing a pick 4 years in the future from a team led by Luka a ton? I wouldn't do 21 for that. But anything lower than 20 feels like Dallas shouldn't do it.

Man I can't imagine valuing 21 over an unprotected first that far away from any team, much less a team whose future is as unclear as the Lakers. And even then we've seen strong teams have broken years. I mean even if you get pick 30 you haven't sacrificed hardly any value.

But this board does not value upside variance like me for some reason and has way more confidence in knowing where picks fall years out than me.

I value it a lot, but not from a team with a generational superstar who has said he is staying. Obviously things can happen, but I think people need to be willing to make reasonable assumptions about future value. Sometimes they will be wrong, but I think the odds that it is a higher value pick are fairly low.

I am willing to make reasonable assumptions. I agree with you that if Luka re-signs it feels like most of the time Utah doesn't gain a premium pick. I could even be really pessimistic and say only 10% of the time does Utah get a pick better than 21. But there is a real chance of it being a lottery pick and with the flatter odds, I would take that gamble.

Because even if I get 30 and waited 4 years I've lost very little value. I'll trade that little value for that much upside even if unlikely every time if I'm a team like Utah with plenty of low level assets already.

[babyjax13]

I mean I have no interest at all in it from Dallas. But I know Sam Presti at 15 would say thank you very much and laugh at other teams preferring their later picks.

A team that needs to roll current value into future value, yes, I can see that. Still, it is a gamble, one that is 4 years out and IMO unlikely to pay off. How much upside variance should teams value over a good asset? I think it really depends on the situation and most situations are not one where that makes sense. Teams that would be drafting more rookies than they want on their roster are the obvious targets, or teams that are so pick rich that moving one into the future makes sense. I don't actually think that is Utah (it is basically OKC and SAS).

[Texas Chuck]

godaddy summed it up well, but the other disconnect is you see 21 as a good asset and I really don't. Again what is the difference between 21 and 30? Something but not much. And that's worst case. If we are playing probability its just trading pick 21 for a similar pick in 4 years only with also the potential for getting something much much better.

If Dallas had pick 21 and could trade it for a 2029 OKC(or pick whatever team you project best that year) unprotected 1st I would do it. And Dallas not only doesn't have extra assets they have a major deficit. Thats how strongly I feel about this.

But oddly I'm largely alone on this. So you are probably "right", though you guys will never talk me out of my position here lol.

[babyjax13]

godaddy summed it up well, but the other disconnect is you see 21 as a good asset and I really don't. Again what is the difference between 21 and 30? Something but not much. And that's worst case. If we are playing probability its just trading pick 21 for a similar pick in 4 years only with also the potential for getting something much much better.

If Dallas had pick 21 and could trade it for a 2029 OKC(or pick whatever team you project best that year) unprotected 1st I would do it. And Dallas not only doesn't have extra assets they have a major deficit. Thats how strongly I feel about this.

But oddly I'm largely alone on this. So you are probably "right", though you guys will never talk me out of my position here lol.

I think I'm the only one disagreeing with you

To be clear, there is a limited set of team for which I would disagree on this, but given the exceptional nature of the Lakers, they are one (perhaps the only) team where I feel that way.

[Godaddycurse]

godaddy summed it up well, but the other disconnect is you see 21 as a good asset and I really don't. Again what is the difference between 21 and 30? Something but not much. And that's worst case. If we are playing probability its just trading pick 21 for a similar pick in 4 years only with also the potential for getting something much much better.

If Dallas had pick 21 and could trade it for a 2029 OKC(or pick whatever team you project best that year) unprotected 1st I would do it. And Dallas not only doesn't have extra assets they have a major deficit. Thats how strongly I feel about this.

But oddly I'm largely alone on this. So you are probably "right", though you guys will never talk me out of my position here lol.

One issue you're ignoring is not many GMs can guarantee they will still be on the job 4 years from now. As fans we can be patient (well some of us) for a gamble to pay off.

[SkyHook]

godaddy summed it up well, but the other disconnect is you see 21 as a good asset and I really don't. Again what is the difference between 21 and 30? Something but not much. And that's worst case. If we are playing probability its just trading pick 21 for a similar pick in 4 years only with also the potential for getting something much much better.

If Dallas had pick 21 and could trade it for a 2029 OKC(or pick whatever team you project best that year) unprotected 1st I would do it. And Dallas not only doesn't have extra assets they have a major deficit. Thats how strongly I feel about this.

But oddly I'm largely alone on this. So you are probably "right", though you guys will never talk me out of my position here lol.

I think I'm the only one disagreeing with you

To be clear, there is a limited set of team for which I would disagree on this, but given the exceptional nature of the Lakers, they are one (perhaps the only) team where I feel that way.

I've said that I value picks from teams in warm weather cities far less than those from frigid cities; young stars vs aging rosters even more so. That said, I'd probably do this deal.

[Godaddycurse]

Bad idea to make jayjaysee proud?

Toronto trade: Ingram, Barrett, 9
Toronto receive: Durant, Smith

Dallas trade: Martin, Klay, Gafford, LAL 2029 1st
Dallas receive: Ingram

Phoenix trade: Durant, 29
Phoenix receive: Barrett, Gafford, Martin, Phillip, 9, LAL 2029 1st

Chicago trade: Smith, Phillip
Chicago receive: Klay, 29

Dallas get a offensive creator/playmaker
Toronto gambles/takes advantage of weak east
Phoenix reloads with lotto pick and future 1st
Chicago eats some salary for a pick

[babyjax13]

Bad idea to make jayjaysee proud?

Toronto trade: Ingram, Barrett, 9
Toronto receive: Durant, Smith

Dallas trade: Martin, Klay, Gafford, LAL 2029 1st
Dallas receive: Ingram

Phoenix trade: Durant, 29
Phoenix receive: Barrett, Gafford, Martin, Phillip, 9, LAL 2029 1st

Chicago trade: Smith, Phillip
Chicago receive: Klay, 29

Dallas get a offensive creator/playmaker
Toronto gambles/takes advantage of weak east
Phoenix reloads with lotto pick and future 1st
Chicago eats some salary for a pick

I don't think Toronto should do it, but it's fun. Durant is definitely a great stylistic fit.

[Apz]

I don't see teams valuing a pick 4 years in the future from a team led by Luka a ton? I wouldn't do 21 for that. But anything lower than 20 feels like Dallas shouldn't do it.

Man I can't imagine valuing 21 over an unprotected first that far away from any team, much less a team whose future is as unclear as the Lakers. And even then we've seen strong teams have broken years. I mean even if you get pick 30 you haven't sacrificed hardly any value.

But this board does not value upside variance like me for some reason and has way more confidence in knowing where picks fall years out than me.

I value it a lot, but not from a team with a generational superstar who has said he is staying. Obviously things can happen, but I think people need to be willing to make reasonable assumptions about future value. Sometimes they will be wrong, but I think the odds that it is a higher value pick are fairly low.

Luka said he is staying? Havent heard a word about him saying that? Also, even if he signs a 2+1 that contract is out before 29, and considering how little lakers got to work with they probably cant build a contender

[Astaluego]

Simple trade Okogie +33 for Lonzo. Hornets reunite the Ball brothers, both to compliment Lamelo and because it could be beneficial to have his more serious and formal older brother as a "mentor." Besides, on the court, it would be a very good fit.
For the Bulls, they save a few million, unblock the guard position, and get a good SRP.

[jayjaysee]

Bad idea to make jayjaysee proud?

Toronto trade: Ingram, Barrett, 9
Toronto receive: Durant, Smith

Dallas trade: Martin, Klay, Gafford, LAL 2029 1st
Dallas receive: Ingram

Phoenix trade: Durant, 29
Phoenix receive: Barrett, Gafford, Martin, Phillip, 9, LAL 2029 1st

Chicago trade: Smith, Phillip
Chicago receive: Klay, 29

Dallas get a offensive creator/playmaker
Toronto gambles/takes advantage of weak east
Phoenix reloads with lotto pick and future 1st
Chicago eats some salary for a pick

If KD is willing to go to Toronto, this is a nice fit for him and the team. If it doesn’t work, you likely know Barnes/IQ isn’t a successful future duo. If it works, you maintain your future assets to go find a new 3rd piece in a couple years.

Wishy/Washy I know. But Ingram is a much worse fit now that Flagg is (hopefully…) on the roster? You can make the minutes work and he still helps fill a need, but just don’t think the fit is as good as it was a couple weeks ago?

And if im Phoenix, I might prefer ending up with Ingram and 9 anyways and cutting Dallas out? The hope that Ingram can stay healthy and be a good second option to Booker is better to me? Trade for a rotation center and use small taxMLE on Tyus?

I know most Dallas fans don’t want RJ, but could you just simplify this down to

KD, Klay, and 29 to Toronto
Gafford, Ingram, and 9 to Phoenix
RJ to Dallas

Deal seems legal just like that. Trade Dick or Ochai for future draft capital of some kind and sign a true vet min, should slide right under the tax.. but could do that midseason once you see which guard you want to move. Or trade Klay midseason if the young guards have developed.. Toronto would only be a couple million over the tax, easy to maneuver later on.

Or just add a fourth team for Klay that saves Toronto 2-4 million.

[Godaddycurse]

Bad idea to make jayjaysee proud?

Toronto trade: Ingram, Barrett, 9
Toronto receive: Durant, Smith

Dallas trade: Martin, Klay, Gafford, LAL 2029 1st
Dallas receive: Ingram

Phoenix trade: Durant, 29
Phoenix receive: Barrett, Gafford, Martin, Phillip, 9, LAL 2029 1st

Chicago trade: Smith, Phillip
Chicago receive: Klay, 29

Dallas get a offensive creator/playmaker
Toronto gambles/takes advantage of weak east
Phoenix reloads with lotto pick and future 1st
Chicago eats some salary for a pick

If KD is willing to go to Toronto, this is a nice fit for him and the team. If it doesn’t work, you likely know Barnes/IQ isn’t a successful future duo. If it works, you maintain your future assets to go find a new 3rd piece in a couple years.

Wishy/Washy I know. But Ingram is a much worse fit now that Flagg is (hopefully…) on the roster? You can make the minutes work and he still helps fill a need, but just don’t think the fit is as good as it was a couple weeks ago?

And if im Phoenix, I might prefer ending up with Ingram and 9 anyways and cutting Dallas out? The hope that Ingram can stay healthy and be a good second option to Booker is better to me? Trade for a rotation center and use small taxMLE on Tyus?

I know most Dallas fans don’t want RJ, but could you just simplify this down to

KD, Klay, and 29 to Toronto
Gafford, Ingram, and 9 to Phoenix
RJ to Dallas

Deal seems legal just like they. Trade Dick or Ochai for future draft capital of some kind and sign a true vet min, should slide right under the tax.. but could do that midseason once you see which guard you want to move. Or trade Klay midseason if the young guards have developed.. Toronto would only be a couple million over the tax, easy to maneuver later on.

Or just add a fourth team for Klay that saves Toronto 2-4 million.

I flipped back and forth on ingram or RJ to phoenix. Your version works too

[DNP-Old]

godaddy summed it up well, but the other disconnect is you see 21 as a good asset and I really don't. Again what is the difference between 21 and 30? Something but not much. And that's worst case. If we are playing probability its just trading pick 21 for a similar pick in 4 years only with also the potential for getting something much much better.

If Dallas had pick 21 and could trade it for a 2029 OKC(or pick whatever team you project best that year) unprotected 1st I would do it. And Dallas not only doesn't have extra assets they have a major deficit. Thats how strongly I feel about this.

But oddly I'm largely alone on this. So you are probably "right", though you guys will never talk me out of my position here lol.

One issue you're ignoring is not many GMs can guarantee they will still be on the job 4 years from now. As fans we can be patient (well some of us) for a gamble to pay off.

In the hypothetical world where the LAL '29 1st is traded for a pick this year, the '29 pick will have been used twice by two different GM's in the last six months. The next GM doesn't have to wait until '29 to use it again.

[SkyHook]

godaddy summed it up well, but the other disconnect is you see 21 as a good asset and I really don't. Again what is the difference between 21 and 30? Something but not much. And that's worst case. If we are playing probability its just trading pick 21 for a similar pick in 4 years only with also the potential for getting something much much better.

If Dallas had pick 21 and could trade it for a 2029 OKC(or pick whatever team you project best that year) unprotected 1st I would do it. And Dallas not only doesn't have extra assets they have a major deficit. Thats how strongly I feel about this.

But oddly I'm largely alone on this. So you are probably "right", though you guys will never talk me out of my position here lol.

This echoes my feelings about many things on this board.

[jayjaysee]

KP, Hauser to Atlanta
Mann to Detroit
Simone, Niang, and 28 to Washington
Gill, Coby, 2nd(s) from Atlanta? to Boston

Atlanta tries to keep KP healthy for one playoff run. Hauser into TPE brings spacing, and probably keep Caris for second unit?

Detroit brings in a decent enough two way wing on a decent enough contract? Didn’t look around too long for the right team, but seems good here.

Washington uses a TPE to match one and the vet mins to match the other. Gets paid to buy players out.

Boston trims about 37 mil instantly?

Realy think Boston should just take Simone and Niang here and look to save another 10-15 mil in the Jrue trade.. Then figure out where they are from the tax and what they actually need to dump.. But wanted to do a one stop tax dump.