Vegas Team Win Lines (Prediction time!)

[Xman]

My prediction in other chain a while back:
CLE 62-20
CHI 51-31
ATL 50-32
MIA 47-35
IND 46-36
MIL 45-37
WAS 42-40
TOR 40-42
BOS 40-42
BRK 36-46
DET 36-46
CHA 33-45
ORL 25-57
NY 23-59
PHY 10-72


GSW 62-20
SAS 61-21
OKC 59-23
LAC 58-24
HOU 58-24
MEM 52-30
NO 47-35
UTA 40-42
PHX 38-44
DAL 36-46
LAL 32-50
MIN 31-51
SAC 30-52
DEN 14-68
POR 13-69

I might have the cavs a little high - but I think they are underestimating the top teams and way overestimating the win totals of the bad teams.

I think the best bests: Under Denver, Under Portland,

[Texas Chuck]

It may be a lack of knowledge on my part, but did the Hornets really have that good of an offseason?

They won 33 last year, so saying "over" would mean they did nothing. They:

Lost Lance
Got Batum
Got Lin cheap
Assume MKG improves a little
Kaminsky looks decent

So even if you don't really like anything, seems staying the same is likely.

also got Lamb and Hawes and lost Biyombo and for a team desperate for shooters to play around Big Al, MKG and Kemba I think they also deserve a mention.

I know I was much more optimistic about their off-season than just about anyone here, but I honestly don't see how anyone can take the under on 32.5. Feels like maybe the safest bet on the board. Especially since no matter who one thinks is their best player, they could lose him for the year and still be a strong favorite to win 33+. Plus its an Al Jefferson contract year.

[pacers33granger]

It may be a lack of knowledge on my part, but did the Hornets really have that good of an offseason?

They won 33 last year, so saying "over" would mean they did nothing. They:

Lost Lance
Got Batum
Got Lin cheap
Assume MKG improves a little
Kaminsky looks decent

So even if you don't really like anything, seems staying the same is likely.

Yup, though pretty much every other East team improved as well. I still think they will win more than this prediction, but I could easily see most of the non playoff East teams winning about 30 games this year. The Pistons, Magic, Sixers, and Knicks were the only teams under Charlotte last year and all of them should be much better (except Philly, though they'll likely still be better).

And all the top teams got better, so someone has to be near the bottom and outside of Philly and Orlando I think the safest bets for that would be Charlotte, Indy, Brooklyn, and Boston (I'm not a huge believer in their current roster and they won't have the luxury of a bunch of teams tanking after the all star break).

[bondom34]

It may be a lack of knowledge on my part, but did the Hornets really have that good of an offseason?

They won 33 last year, so saying "over" would mean they did nothing. They:

Lost Lance
Got Batum
Got Lin cheap
Assume MKG improves a little
Kaminsky looks decent

So even if you don't really like anything, seems staying the same is likely.

Yup, though pretty much every other East team improved as well. I still think they will win more than this prediction, but I could easily see most of the non playoff East teams winning about 30 games this year. The Pistons, Magic, Sixers, and Knicks were the only teams under Charlotte last year and all of them should be much better (except Philly, though they'll likely still be better).

And all the top teams got better, so someone has to be near the bottom and outside of Philly and Orlando I think the safest bets for that would be Charlotte, Indy, Brooklyn, and Boston (I'm not a huge believer in their current roster and they won't have the luxury of a bunch of teams tanking after the all star break).

Yeah, I still don't have them in the playoffs I don't think, but that number seems low.

[yosemiteben]

It may be a lack of knowledge on my part, but did the Hornets really have that good of an offseason?

They won 33 last year, so saying "over" would mean they did nothing. They:

Lost Lance
Got Batum
Got Lin cheap
Assume MKG improves a little
Kaminsky looks decent

So even if you don't really like anything, seems staying the same is likely.

And that 33 was with every member of our starting lineup missing at least a month to injury during the regular season and us having one of the weakest benches in the league.

Al also has dropped 25 pounds this offseason.

32.5 is an absurdly low number IMO.

[Smitty731]

Golden State Warriors 60.5 - close
San Antonio Spurs 58.5 - over
Oklahoma City Thunder 57.5 - over
Los Angeles Clippers 56.5 - close
Houston Rockets 54.5 - close
Memphis Grizzlies 50.5 - under
New Orleans Pelicans 47.5 - under
Utah Jazz 40.5 - over
---------------------------
Dallas Mavericks 38.5 - close (if only because Dirk's greatness!)
Phoenix Suns 36.5 - under
Sacramento Kings 30.5 - over
Los Angeles Lakers 29.5 - under
Denver Nuggets 26.5 - under
Portland Trail Blazers 26.5 - under
Minnesota Timberwolves 25.5 - over

Cleveland Cavaliers 56.5 - under (because they play it conservative and don't push injured guys)
Atlanta Hawks 49.5 - close
Chicago Bulls 49.5 - over
Miami Heat 45.5 - over - (I think they get the 1st seed and finish close to 60 wins)
Toronto Raptors 45.5 - close
Washington Wizards 45.5 - close
Milwaukee Bucks 43.5 - close
Boston Celtics 42.5 - close
-------------------------
Indiana Pacers 42.5 - under
Detroit Pistons 33.5 - under
Charlotte Hornets 32.5 - over
Orlando Magic 32.5 - close
New York Knicks 31.5 - close
Brooklyn Nets 28.5 - over
Philadelphia 76ers 21.5 - close

[Golabki]

It may be a lack of knowledge on my part, but did the Hornets really have that good of an offseason?

They won 33 last year, so saying "over" would mean they did nothing. They:

Lost Lance
Got Batum
Got Lin cheap
Assume MKG improves a little
Kaminsky looks decent

So even if you don't really like anything, seems staying the same is likely.

And that 33 was with every member of our starting lineup missing at least a month to injury during the regular season and us having one of the weakest benches in the league.

Al also has dropped 25 pounds this offseason.

32.5 is an absurdly low number IMO.

Based on reporting on Jeffersons weight since he came into the league I think he's npw negrive 165lbs

But I agree 32.5 feels low.

[Golabki]

I think the bucks are too high.

They were really pretty bad after the MCW trade and lost ilyasova, Dudley and zaza, who were all solid rotation players for them.

I could see them winning over 50 in the base case but I'm taking the under.

[Dunham32]

I went Over/Under on for all of them.

Golden State Warriors 60.5 Under
San Antonio Spurs 58.5 Under
Oklahoma City Thunder 57.5 Under
Los Angeles Clippers 56.5 Under
Houston Rockets 54.5 Over
Memphis Grizzlies 50.5 Over
New Orleans Pelicans 47.5 Under
Utah Jazz 40.5 Over
---------------------------
Dallas Mavericks 38.5 Over
Phoenix Suns 36.5 Under
Sacramento Kings 30.5 Over
Los Angeles Lakers 29.5 Under
Denver Nuggets 26.5 Under
Portland Trail Blazers 26.5 Under
Minnesota Timberwolves 25.5 Over

Cleveland Cavaliers 56.5 Under
Atlanta Hawks 49.5 Over
Chicago Bulls 49.5 Over
Miami Heat 45.5 Over
Toronto Raptors 45.5 Over
Washington Wizards 45.5 Over
Milwaukee Bucks 43.5 Under
Boston Celtics 42.5 Under
-------------------------
Indiana Pacers 42.5 Under
Detroit Pistons 33.5 Under
Charlotte Hornets 32.5 Over
Orlando Magic 32.5 Under
New York Knicks 31.5 Under
Brooklyn Nets 28.5 Under
Philadelphia 76ers 21.5 Under

The three Id feel most comfortable putting money on the over are the Grizzlies, Wizards, and Rockets. The three I like the under for are the Blazers, Pelicans, and Spurs.

[HornetJail]

Golden State Warriors 60.5 - over
San Antonio Spurs 58.5 - under
Oklahoma City Thunder 57.5 - over
Los Angeles Clippers 56.5 - over
Houston Rockets 54.5 - over
Memphis Grizzlies 50.5 - under
New Orleans Pelicans 47.5 - under
Utah Jazz 40.5 - under
---------------------------
Dallas Mavericks 38.5 - over
Phoenix Suns 36.5 - under
Sacramento Kings 30.5 - over
Los Angeles Lakers 29.5 - under
Denver Nuggets 26.5 - under
Portland Trail Blazers 26.5 - over
Minnesota Timberwolves 25.5 - under


Cleveland Cavaliers 56.5 - under
Atlanta Hawks 49.5 - under
Chicago Bulls 49.5 - under
Miami Heat 45.5 - over
Toronto Raptors 45.5 - under
Washington Wizards 45.5 - over
Milwaukee Bucks 43.5 - under
Boston Celtics 42.5 - under
-------------------------
Indiana Pacers 42.5 - under
Detroit Pistons 33.5 - over
Charlotte Hornets 32.5 - over
Orlando Magic 32.5 - over
New York Knicks 31.5 - over
Brooklyn Nets 28.5 - under
Philadelphia 76ers 21.5 - under

[the_process]

WEST
Golden State Warriors 60.5 close
San Antonio Spurs 58.5 over
Oklahoma City Thunder 57.5 over
Los Angeles Clippers 56.5 close
Houston Rockets 54.5 close
Memphis Grizzlies 50.5 under
New Orleans Pelicans 47.5 under
Utah Jazz 40.5 over
---------------------------
Dallas Mavericks 38.5 over
Phoenix Suns 36.5 under
Sacramento Kings 30.5 under
Los Angeles Lakers 29.5 under
Denver Nuggets 26.5 close
Portland Trail Blazers 26.5 under
Minnesota Timberwolves 25.5 under

EAST
Cleveland Cavaliers 56.5 over
Atlanta Hawks 49.5 over
Chicago Bulls 49.5 under
Miami Heat 45.5 over
Toronto Raptors 45.5 under
Washington Wizards 45.5 over
Milwaukee Bucks 43.5 close
Boston Celtics 42.5 under
-------------------------
Indiana Pacers 42.5 over
Detroit Pistons 33.5 over
Charlotte Hornets 32.5 over
Orlando Magic 32.5 under
New York Knicks 31.5 under
Brooklyn Nets 28.5 over
Philadelphia 76ers 21.5 close

My three high teams are Chicago, LA Lakers, and Portland. My biggest lock under is LAL. Kobe will get hurt again, Hibbert will start complaining about touches, Russell will need some time to adjust.

My three low teams are Atlanta, Cleveland, and Miami. Atlanta is my biggest lock over assuming relative health. You don't take a 62 win team, lose DeMarre Carroll but gain Tim Hardaway Jr. and Tiago Splitter and keep everyone else, and end up 13 games worse.

[Diop]

It may be a lack of knowledge on my part, but did the Hornets really have that good of an offseason?

They won 33 last year, so saying "over" would mean they did nothing. They:

Lost Lance
Got Batum
Got Lin cheap
Assume MKG improves a little
Kaminsky looks decent

So even if you don't really like anything, seems staying the same is likely.

and most importantly Al is in a contract year so he has quit eating chicken and lost 20 pounds. So he will have a good year.

(this isn't a joke, by the way)

''Listen, he always ate Popeyes last season on the plane and stuff,'' said Walker said. ''I always tried to tell him to stop eating it. He wouldn't listen to me.''

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/hornets-jefferson-drops-25-pounds-feels-man-204400849--nba.html

I really hope we don't fall into the trap of signing him long term, unless his next contract has a weight and no fried chicken clause

[brackdan70]

Heat, Celtics and Jazz over

Pacers, Mavericks, and Grizzlies under

The rest seem pretty close IMO

[Curmudgeon]

Heat, Celtics and Jazz over

Pacers, Mavericks, and Grizzlies under

The rest seem pretty close IMO

Agree except for the Heat. That team has too many older players and question marks. Even if all gos reasonably well 45 wins is about right.

I'd also take the over for Orlando. Hezonja is the real deal.

[old rem]

i'm real optimistic for GSW, but INJURY stuff can make ANY of the top 6 in the West come out on top,or drop a lot.

in the East.. Cavs can be on top,even with some bad luck, and The Hawks seem closest. Then what? Bucks are improved. Bulls may have injury stuff....Miami seems good but Wade + Bosh are older now. Raps,Wiz.. can be Playoff.. but NOT tops.

I see the Pelicans on the Rise but.. in the WEST.. just being 6 seed is tough. 8 seed in the EAST? You can be under 500, and make 7 or 8.. be blown away rd 1.

[Trader_Joe]

Did we do one of these last year?
Would love to see the results!

EDIT: I should try reading the OP one of these days.


WEST
Golden State Warriors 60.5 over
San Antonio Spurs 58.5 under
Oklahoma City Thunder 57.5 under
Los Angeles Clippers 56.5 over
Houston Rockets 54.5 over
Memphis Grizzlies 50.5 under
New Orleans Pelicans 47.5 under
Utah Jazz 40.5 over
---------------------------
Dallas Mavericks 38.5 over
Phoenix Suns 36.5 under
Sacramento Kings 30.5 over
Los Angeles Lakers 29.5 under
Denver Nuggets 26.5 over
Portland Trail Blazers 26.5 under
Minnesota Timberwolves 25.5 over

EAST
Cleveland Cavaliers 56.5 over
Atlanta Hawks 49.5 over
Chicago Bulls 49.5 under
Miami Heat 45.5 over
Toronto Raptors 45.5 over
Washington Wizards 45.5 under
Milwaukee Bucks 43.5 over
Boston Celtics 42.5 under
-------------------------
Indiana Pacers 42.5 under
Detroit Pistons 33.5 under
Charlotte Hornets 32.5 over
Orlando Magic 32.5 over
New York Knicks 31.5 over
Brooklyn Nets 28.5 over
Philadelphia 76ers 21.5 under

[HartfordWhalers]

Last years thread (any resemblance is purely coincidental)

Here is 2 years ago too - viewtopic.php?t=1276595
(I think last year was dual posted on the GB, but google didn't find it quickly for me)


Thanks for posting this!

[tmorgan]

Golden State Warriors 60.5 (Under -- just too high for any team in the West)
San Antonio Spurs 58.5 (Under -- same as GS, and they need to adjust to LMA)
Oklahoma City Thunder 57.5 (Under -- this would be a Close with guaranteed KD health, but that's not true)
Los Angeles Clippers 56.5 (Under -- same as GS)
Houston Rockets 54.5 (Close -- this is a good, deep team, but it's still the West)
Memphis Grizzlies 50.5 (Close -- likely 6th in the West unless one of the above gets the injury bug bad)
New Orleans Pelicans 47.5 (Under -- not ready for this big of a jump, even with AD)
Utah Jazz 40.5 (Over -- although point guard play is going to be suspect)
Dallas Mavericks 38.5 (Under -- not enough talent, too many good teams)
Phoenix Suns 36.5 (Close -- not a playoff team, but likely would be in the East)
Sacramento Kings 30.5 (Over -- but not a playoff team)
Los Angeles Lakers 29.5 (Under -- the Lakers are going to stink)
Denver Nuggets 26.5 (Under -- the Nuggets are also going to stink)
Portland Trail Blazers 26.5 (Under -- the Blazers are really going to stink)
Minnesota Timberwolves 25.5 (Over -- this team clearly looks better than LAL, DEN, and POR to me)

Cleveland Cavaliers 56.5 (Over -- even with rest and injuries, they're so much better than anyone in the East)
Atlanta Hawks 49.5 (Over -- Bud will get them a lot of regular season wins)
Chicago Bulls 49.5 (Close -- new coach, but Rose won't be worse and they're still deep)
Miami Heat 45.5 (Over -- but risky, because of depth concerns and injury issues)
Toronto Raptors 45.5 (Under -- awful coaching. Still playoffs)
Washington Wizards 45.5 (Under -- the front court is weak, and others are improving. Still playoffs.)
Milwaukee Bucks 43.5 (Close -- talented but young, with adjustments to make and shooting issues)
Boston Celtics 42.5 (Under -- but I didn't think much of them last year, and this is about the same)
Indiana Pacers 42.5 (Under -- I just don't see it. New style, weak front court, we'll see.)
Detroit Pistons 33.5 (Over -- I'm a homer. Seriously, though, this team looks a lot better.)
Charlotte Hornets 32.5 (Over -- but not playoffs. No interior D.)
Orlando Magic 32.5 (Close -- young and entertaining, but not ready)
New York Knicks 31.5 (Under -- not enough talent, although improved, certainly)
Brooklyn Nets 28.5 (Under -- not deep, injury issues, just not a good team)
Philadelphia 76ers 21.5 (Close -- the Sixers are going to stink, on purpose)

I've got GSW/SAS/HOU/LAC/OKC/MEM/UTA/NOP and CLE/ATL/MIA/CHI/MIL/TOR/WAS/DET as my playoffs teams in order of record.

[tmorgan]

My three high teams are Chicago, LA Lakers, and Portland. My biggest lock under is LAL. Kobe will get hurt again, Hibbert will start complaining about touches, Russell will need some time to adjust.

My three low teams are Atlanta, Cleveland, and Miami. Atlanta is my biggest lock over assuming relative health. You don't take a 62 win team, lose DeMarre Carroll but gain Tim Hardaway Jr. and Tiago Splitter and keep everyone else, and end up 13 games worse.

Atlanta is my favorite OVER as well. Superior coaching and system, relatively deep, and an absolutely pathetic conference means 50 wins almost guaranteed. Of course, if Horford goes down, all bets are off, but if you're going to worry about injuries, don't bet any of these lines, because none of them are safe.

[JasonStern]

zero chance the Vegas books open with these lines, but if they did, the smart money would be on the under for:

Los Angeles Lakers 29.5
Denver Nuggets 26.5
Portland Trail Blazers 26.5
Minnesota Timberwolves 25.5

there's just no way in a competitive west that every team is winning at least 26 games. Minnesota and LA aren't both 9 wins better. and while one of Portland or Denver might surprise, they both aren't. so that's pretty much a lock to go 2 for 4, with a strong chance of going 3 for 4, and an unlikely but still reasonable chance of going 4 for 4.