Do you agree with hinkie's rebuild plan for the sixers?

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Do you agree with hinkie's rebuild plan for the sixers?

Poll ended at Fri Oct 23, 2015 11:10 pm

Yes
44
46%
No
37
39%
I'm somewhere in the middle
14
15%
 
Total votes: 95

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Re: Do you agree with hinkie's rebuild plan for the sixers? 

Post#21 » by HartfordWhalers » Sat Oct 17, 2015 3:07 am

In terms of my take on it, you have couple of questions that get mangled together into a hot take mess --

Big picture:
1) Is bottoming out 100% something that increases your odds of getting a star and thus being a consistent contender?
2) Even if it is, is it worth it?

Little picture:
3) Does trading MCW show that the Sixers are drafting poorly and failing (look at Gobert/Giannis!)
4) Does Embiid's situation show that the Sixers are taking too many risks/not having enough vets/ drafting poorly / etc
5) But they need more vets or else!

Absurd red herring:
6) But this isn't 100% guaranteed to get a championship
7)Look at the franchise reputation damage
8) are the owners just doing this to make more money/isn;t the plan failing cause they aren't making money?

_____________

Really briefly:
1) Yes. It really is. This can be a fun debate, but it absolutely is true.

2) Depends upon your preferences. For a lot of Philly fans, the answer has been yes. Being a 500 team and not getting anywhere had lost its thrill, and this is pretty exciting times even if the team is worse. I would say yes.

3) The Sixers took a guy at 11 in a weak draft, and project to have a (much?) better pick. Hard to fault it in terms of asset increasing, as they added value. So, the big complaints here are either:
MCW had gone up in so much value that it still lost value (Sixers turned 20 dollars into 80, but only by selling 100 for 80?), or that it is just not cohesive to make the change.
In terms of that, I'm not sure they didn't sell very high on MCW, and I would argue MCW could not return that Laker pick now.
Also, the team played better and Noel was happier once MCW left. So, the cohesive argument relies on not knowing what was happening.

4) Embiid was a risk. Any plan has them, and he was a big risk for a big reward. That Embiid (so far) hasn't panned out doesn;t by definition make it a bad gamble, just one that hasn't (for now) worked.

5) Lol. So hard to take this serious, when you look at how those vets help those other teams. But Philly did have mentor types LRMM, Jrich. And a coaching staff that demands accountability by all reports.

6) No kidding, no plan is.

7) OKC stunk for 3 years, LAC for a decade etc. This isn't a real thing, but it sure is fun to say if you dislike the plan.

8) Winning big is generally the best for profits. Losing is worse than being a 1 and out team. So, in that sense its an investment, giving up money now to try and make more later. Just like losing more now to win more later.

However, Philly has a lot of details that insulate these loses.
A crappy long term TV contract so TV ratings don't matter
A crappy long term lease so the gate revenue loss isn't as big as it could be
(both inherited when the old owner sold the team)
Smart financial management (cheating the salary floor, etc).

As such the team is profitable now and able to withstand the revenue hit.


Oh but comments like:
Kings2013 wrote:I don't know enough about their revenues but I know their gate and television ratings are in the tubes. I have a problem with teams leaching off revenue sharing to do it


Well, thats just misinformed or ignorant. The Sixers don't get revenue sharing money. Now, the irony would be that the Kings do...
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Re: Do you agree with hinkie's rebuild plan for the sixers? 

Post#22 » by azwfan » Sat Oct 17, 2015 3:48 am

Couple of things.

1. I didn't read the linked article. If the article answers #2 then i apologize.
2. What is Hinkie's rebuild plan? Does he have a time limit? How much rope has ownership given him? What are ownership's expectations after that time frame? - etc.

What I've seen so far is an asset collector. There are a few of these asset collector GM's around (PHX, PHI, HOU come to mind immediately) and quite a few RealGMers have the same thought process. Hinkie has been masterful at using capspace as an asset and using it for 2 years (3 off seasons) to acquire "assets". He's also done well with trades. I'm not sure he's done a great job drafting, but he hasnt been bad and the NBA draft is far from a sure thing the further you get from the #1 pick so all things considered i'd say he's done a good job.

I assume at some point there will be a thought process of turning the "assets" into a team. I haven't seen that yet, but if that is next off season, i think he has done a good enough job of collecting "assets" that he should be able to put a decent team together. I really thought he would've been better off signing a vet or 2 this off season, but he probably didn't see the value - or couldn't get who he wanted (??).

At any rate, i believe the original question was the strategy. I think the first year tank (holiday trade to draft Noel) made a lot of sense. The 2nd year tank (drafting an injured player and a euro) was pretty ballsy, and i can roll with that though in hindsight their team looks a hell of a lot better to me with Payton playing PG this year than owning the rights to Saric. The 3rd year tank - for me - as far as strategy was too much. I really would have preferred to start trying to get players who have played in the league and can help the young team. Maybe those guys weren't there to sign or trade for (or cost too much) but now i question the environment their young players are "growing up" in... and what kind of culture they are fostering in the organization. It seems that the culture they are creating is one that indicates winning is not important, there's no expectation to win, and there is a plan to win at some point in the future. I think that's treading on dangerous water.

To sum up, i think the 3rd year tank job was too far... i would have started bringing in vets at that point. We'll see. There's no guarantee it'll work out - but even that doesn't mean its not a good strategy... it just means it didn't work in this situation.
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Re: Do you agree with hinkie's rebuild plan for the sixers? 

Post#23 » by bondom34 » Sat Oct 17, 2015 4:13 am

HartfordWhalers wrote:
bondom34 wrote:
2. traded a second for Wroten

3. Payton for Saric trade: Embiid was definitely BPA. As for the trade...eh, this one to me is iffy, the fit is questionable but they were pretty even as prospects. I don't hold it either way til I see Saric.


...treating guys as assets...



Couple of corrections/additions to highlight.

-- Wroten was taken for free (top 55 or top 50 2nd; they traded that second a bunch that year, but it was a non-existent pick).

-- The haul from moving down was:
Payton for
Saric
Orlando 2015 2nd
2017 Philly 1st (top 11 that year, top 8 the next year, if not 2 2nds).

Considering Philly was planning on taking Saric at 10 (Woj even reported the pick done), I think you absolutelyhave to call teh trade a massive win. Maybe the draft picks used is not, but the value from 10 to 12 was.

-- By all reports, Philly doesn't treat players like assets, and even the journeymen that get their say the team invests more in their development than anywhere previous. They have more player turnover than most -- although a good portion of it is lower end bench churn -- but that is different from treating players as assets. Instead, the team seems highly invested in players as people (that are tradable).

Thanks for the Saric part, forgot about that :D.

Yeah, when I say treats them like assets I don't mean in a Morey-esque way exactly, but to me there isn't a real tight/family sort of feel and he's shown everyone and anyone is tradeable. That sort of thing, should have been more clear.
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Re: Do you agree with hinkie's rebuild plan for the sixers? 

Post#24 » by MrPerfect1 » Sat Oct 17, 2015 4:49 am

What Hinkie is doing makes the most logical sense. It isn't like PHI had Title hopes that he killed. If they had gone the other route they would likely have been winning 30-40 meaningless games with no top talent in line to add to the team. It's better to be where they are now than to be in no man's land
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Re: Do you agree with hinkie's rebuild plan for the sixers? 

Post#25 » by DocRI » Sat Oct 17, 2015 5:22 am

For the record, I voted "in the middle."

Philosophically, although I find it kinda distasteful, I don't have any problems with Hinkie's plan. I agree that being a treadmill playoff team is the worst place an NBA franchise can get stuck, and if that's what he saw with the team he inherited he was absolutely right to blow the whole thing up and aim higher (and I actually commend him for the power of his conviction, as he certainly hasn't half-assed it). My problems have been in his execution, as I think he's purposefully chosen to make this take longer than it needed to take. Plenty of teams have bottomed out and at least started to show signs of progress after two years, but his perpetual "the grass is always greener" approach, continually kicking the can of contention further down the road, is wearing thin on me. Sooner rather than later, he's gotta start turning these "assets" into a winning basketball team. And the further away he kicks that can, the higher the bar of eventual success rises. With drafting Noel (admittedly, so far so good), Embiid, and Saric, and then trading MCW for the LAL pick, he keeps saying, "Don't worry, these guys are worth waiting for!" Well, I now think he needs to not just be right, but be REALLY RIGHT. Basically, this is championship or bust; if he makes a good-but-not-great team, he deserves to get canned 'cuz he could've made the team "good" without making them "epically embarrassingly bad" first.

Last note — as you guys know, I'm a DET fan, which stretches across all sports. In the past few years, I've watched the Lions spend 1st and 2nd round picks Jahvid Best, Nick Fairley, Titus Young, Mikel Leshoure, and Ryan Broyles — all big risk, big reward, swing-for-the-fences picks. None of them are still on the team and the Lions are now the worst team in the NFL, which is what happens when you waste that much draft capital. There were significant red flags on all of those guys going into the draft, but the braintrust ignored the risk 'cuz the reward was so great. There were those kind of red flags on Embiid, too, and Saric is still an unknown. Call it a cautionary tale from a guy suffering through a L-O-N-G NFL season — continually ignoring risk and focusing solely on potential reward / upside can blow up in your face.
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Re: Do you agree with hinkie's rebuild plan for the sixers? 

Post#26 » by bondom34 » Sat Oct 17, 2015 6:24 am

Actually two other things I've been against: McDaniels trade and maybe not keeping Ish Smith considering they really didn't get anyone better.
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Re: Do you agree with hinkie's rebuild plan for the sixers? 

Post#27 » by spearsy23 » Sat Oct 17, 2015 6:37 am

bondom34 wrote:Actually two other things I've been against: McDaniels trade and maybe not keeping Ish Smith considering they really didn't get anyone better.


I don't understand everyone's fascination with KJ McDaniels. He's a scrub that may one day be a rotation player, no reason for Hinkie to keep him on the team and have to pay him "I'm a starter" money, plus he'd already complained about PT. If I remember correctly he had a semi-hot start from 3 last year and then it got awkward because he couldn't actually shoot, but by then first impressions had everyone already anointing him a hyper athletic 3/D guy. Turns out he's more hyper athlete than 3 or D, and has a long way to go.
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Re: Do you agree with hinkie's rebuild plan for the sixers? 

Post#28 » by bondom34 » Sat Oct 17, 2015 6:42 am

spearsy23 wrote:
bondom34 wrote:Actually two other things I've been against: McDaniels trade and maybe not keeping Ish Smith considering they really didn't get anyone better.


I don't understand everyone's fascination with KJ McDaniels. He's a scrub that may one day be a rotation player, no reason for Hinkie to keep him on the team and have to pay him "I'm a starter" money, plus he'd already complained about PT. If I remember correctly he had a semi-hot start from 3 last year and then it got awkward because he couldn't actually shoot, but by then first impressions had everyone already anointing him a hyper athletic 3/D guy. Turns out he's more hyper athlete than 3 or D, and has a long way to go.

Oh, I agree on McDaniels, but they really got relatively poor return. A second and Canaan.
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Re: Do you agree with hinkie's rebuild plan for the sixers? 

Post#29 » by HartfordWhalers » Sat Oct 17, 2015 6:55 am

bondom34 wrote:
spearsy23 wrote:
bondom34 wrote:Actually two other things I've been against: McDaniels trade and maybe not keeping Ish Smith considering they really didn't get anyone better.


I don't understand everyone's fascination with KJ McDaniels. He's a scrub that may one day be a rotation player, no reason for Hinkie to keep him on the team and have to pay him "I'm a starter" money, plus he'd already complained about PT. If I remember correctly he had a semi-hot start from 3 last year and then it got awkward because he couldn't actually shoot, but by then first impressions had everyone already anointing him a hyper athletic 3/D guy. Turns out he's more hyper athlete than 3 or D, and has a long way to go.

Oh, I agree on McDaniels, but they really got relatively poor return. A second and Canaan.


KJ was picked 32nd. They got a guy picked at 34 previously and a pick that was 37 for him. If KJ hadn't performed so well, in a vacuum it was gaining value, although I agree that when it happened, it looked bad value.

He's looked less impressive in preseason, but Holmes made me re-think my dislike of the trade in summer league where he looked really promising. But Canaan was someone that Hinkie coveted, and so far he hasn't proven to deserve that.
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Re: Do you agree with hinkie's rebuild plan for the sixers? 

Post#30 » by spearsy23 » Sat Oct 17, 2015 6:59 am

bondom34 wrote:
spearsy23 wrote:
bondom34 wrote:Actually two other things I've been against: McDaniels trade and maybe not keeping Ish Smith considering they really didn't get anyone better.


I don't understand everyone's fascination with KJ McDaniels. He's a scrub that may one day be a rotation player, no reason for Hinkie to keep him on the team and have to pay him "I'm a starter" money, plus he'd already complained about PT. If I remember correctly he had a semi-hot start from 3 last year and then it got awkward because he couldn't actually shoot, but by then first impressions had everyone already anointing him a hyper athletic 3/D guy. Turns out he's more hyper athlete than 3 or D, and has a long way to go.

Oh, I agree on McDaniels, but they really got relatively poor return. A second and Canaan.

I like Canaanan, so take this with a grain of salt because I may be higher than anyone else on him, but that seems like a fair return to me. 34th pick +2nd for 32nd pick with attitude issues/expiring contract. I actually think it's a pretty good trade, unfortunately Canaan has to be more than Eric Maynor on that Philly team and it makes him look worse than he is. I doubt McDaniels had a lot of value around the league, they weren't fooled by that hot start like a lot of us were, not right after having scouted him pre-draft. What do you think would've been fair value? I'm really struggling seeing him get more than pick 35-40.
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Re: Do you agree with hinkie's rebuild plan for the sixers? 

Post#31 » by bondom34 » Sat Oct 17, 2015 7:08 am

spearsy23 wrote:
bondom34 wrote:
spearsy23 wrote:
I don't understand everyone's fascination with KJ McDaniels. He's a scrub that may one day be a rotation player, no reason for Hinkie to keep him on the team and have to pay him "I'm a starter" money, plus he'd already complained about PT. If I remember correctly he had a semi-hot start from 3 last year and then it got awkward because he couldn't actually shoot, but by then first impressions had everyone already anointing him a hyper athletic 3/D guy. Turns out he's more hyper athlete than 3 or D, and has a long way to go.

Oh, I agree on McDaniels, but they really got relatively poor return. A second and Canaan.

I like Canaanan, so take this with a grain of salt because I may be higher than anyone else on him, but that seems like a fair return to me. 34th pick +2nd for 32nd pick with attitude issues/expiring contract. I actually think it's a pretty good trade, unfortunately Canaan has to be more than Eric Maynor on that Philly team and it makes him look worse than he is. I doubt McDaniels had a lot of value around the league, they weren't fooled by that hot start like a lot of us were, not right after having scouted him pre-draft. What do you think would've been fair value? I'm really struggling seeing him get more than pick 35-40.

I may have to rethink that one then actually, I had disliked it at the time, but looking back you guys are right, not bad. So only the PG issue.
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Re: Do you agree with hinkie's rebuild plan for the sixers? 

Post#32 » by Monky15 » Sat Oct 17, 2015 9:11 am

I like how he swings for the fences with the lottery picks. Take bigger risks earlier on until you get a true franchise player and then stop going for the injured/ stash players. You don't want to be handing out rookie extensions to guys until you have the franchise player to build around otherwise you will end up mediocre real quick.
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Re: Do you agree with hinkie's rebuild plan for the sixers? 

Post#33 » by Drax » Sat Oct 17, 2015 11:18 am

If he doesn't get more NBA talent next offseason, i'd be worried as a 76ers fan, because every year after that you have to hand out some extensions to your draft picks be it second round guys or the higher lottery picks. And if he doesnt want to lose value on those he has to overpay at some point for those players.
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Re: Do you agree with hinkie's rebuild plan for the sixers? 

Post#34 » by winter_mute_13 » Sat Oct 17, 2015 1:16 pm

I've posted several times on this type of thread, and I've seen no noticeable sign that the debate changes anyone's minds, but since there seems to be at least one poster who is unfamiliar with the arguments, I'll take another stab...

Hinkie set some high goals for himself and the Sixers. The goal is to be nothing less than a perennial championship contender, and the way he plans to achieve this is by acquiring one of the top talents in the league, i.e. basically the next LeBron/Durant/A.Davis, someone who can carry a team all by himself. So far so good - none of this is contentious, and indeed, other teams have tried to tank specifically when one of those guys was known to be coming up in the draft.

Hinkie, though, isn't targeting anyone specifically. He's taking more of a shotgun approach, building a team that is structurally bad, so as to have multiple years of losing seasons and thus high lottery odds. The lofty goal of future championships is taken as justification for this single-minded pursuit of losses. Given that, I think it is appropriate that Hinkie should be evaluated on a higher standard than other GMs - not whether the Sixers can become a decent team (I believe they can, easily) but whether they can become a great team.

I think it's fair to say that so far Hinkie doesn't have much to show after 2 years of solid tanking, not in the way of championship talent at least. Sure, there are some nice solid pieces (Noel and Covington in particular) and maybe Embiid or Okafor would work out in the end. But it doesn't feel like he is in a better position than rival GMs who have taken a more conventional approach.

What *is* different about Hinkie is that he doesn't seem to be accountable for any sort of result. Other GMs (even rebuilding ones) are expected to show some results after x number of years, but since Hinkie's plan is essentially "lose until we land a once-in-a-generation talent", the Sixers could tank for the next 10 years and Hinkie could rightly say that it was all part of the plan. The cynic in me says that this in fact is the brilliance in Hinkie's plan - he has set himself up for indefinite employment without the need to ever win games. That MCW trade seemed like a warning sign to me. Maybe Hinkie had a genuine basketball reason for the trade, but a cynic might say that he is recycling players for picks in order to extend the rebuild. It will be interesting to see what happens with Noel after this season, when he'll be on the last year of his rookie contract.
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Re: Do you agree with hinkie's rebuild plan for the sixers? 

Post#35 » by Prokorov » Sat Oct 17, 2015 2:00 pm

No, as ive said a bunch on this board, i dont think tanking works, outside of the 1 scneario where you have a 45-50 win team, your star gets hurt and another player goes down, and you do the 1 year tank to add top 3 talent to an already good team. kind of like the spurs getting duncan.

outside of that, i dont think it works. i think it works the worst when you are already a bad team. telling young guys you basically are ok with losing, creates bad habits... both work ethic and attitude wise. its tough to get that losing stench off a team once is there.

and unless you are a major market, i think its difficult to keep all those guys around. the guy you draft this year may be looking to bold in 3-4 years for greener pastures after sitting in a tank enviorment. so the talent you get in future years just mitigates the talent you lose once those guys contracts are up.

i think you need to mix some vets in there. you need to try and win after those first couple bad seasons.

i like what for instance the magic are doing alot better
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Re: Do you agree with hinkie's rebuild plan for the sixers? 

Post#36 » by j_n » Sat Oct 17, 2015 2:16 pm

HartfordWhalers wrote:ch that year, but it was a non-existent pick).

-- The haul from moving down was:
Payton for
Saric
Orlando 2015 2nd
2017 Philly 1st (top 11 that year, top 8 the next year, if not 2 2nds).

Considering Philly was planning on taking Saric at 10 (Woj even reported the pick done), I think you absolutelyhave to call teh trade a massive win. Maybe the draft picks used is not, but the value from 10 to 12 was.

It really doesnt matter how he ranked both prospects, obviously, if he rated Saric higher than Payton than getting Saric and an asset is a better outcome than taking Saric at 10 but it still doesnt mean he made the most of the situation.

If Payton or anyone else drafted after Saric ends up being more valuable than Saric and the pick than it wasnt the best move he could have made, how he rated those prospects means nothing when determining how good that move was.

Also, there is no going rate for the value of moving up from 12 to 10, it all depends on whose available at each pick, sometimes it could be the difference between Austin Rivers and Jeremy Lamb and sometimes its difference between Paul George and Xavier Henry.

By your logic, if the Pacers rated Henry over PG and drafted PG only to trade him for Henry and another asset it would be a win since they rated Henry over George anyway.
Eventually the move will be judged by the value Hinikie got vs the value that was available to him with the #10 pick.
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Re: Do you agree with hinkie's rebuild plan for the sixers? 

Post#37 » by Takingbaconback » Sat Oct 17, 2015 2:27 pm

I like the idea of tanking and piling up assets but i dont think they are picking the right guys. Also this "process" is something every single team does, and I think trying to specify the term as your own is dumb. Sure 6rs tank actively but they would be in a very similar situation if not the same if they didn't tank
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Re: Do you agree with hinkie's rebuild plan for the sixers? 

Post#38 » by HartfordWhalers » Sat Oct 17, 2015 2:37 pm

j_n wrote:
HartfordWhalers wrote:ch that year, but it was a non-existent pick).

-- The haul from moving down was:
Payton for
Saric
Orlando 2015 2nd
2017 Philly 1st (top 11 that year, top 8 the next year, if not 2 2nds).

Considering Philly was planning on taking Saric at 10 (Woj even reported the pick done), I think you absolutelyhave to call teh trade a massive win. Maybe the draft picks used is not, but the value from 10 to 12 was.

It really doesnt matter how he ranked both prospects, obviously, if he rated Saric higher than Payton than getting Saric and an asset is a better outcome than taking Saric at 10 but it still doesnt mean he made the most of the situation.

If Payton or anyone else drafted after Saric ends up being more valuable than Saric and the pick than it wasnt the best move he could have made, how he rated those prospects means nothing when determining how good that move was.

Also, there is no going rate for the value of moving up from 12 to 10, it all depends on whose available at each pick, sometimes it could be the difference between Austin Rivers and Jeremy Lamb and sometimes its difference between Paul George and Xavier Henry.

By your logic, if the Pacers rated Henry over PG and drafted PG only to trade him for Henry and another asset it would be a win since they rated Henry over George anyway.
Eventually the move will be judged by the value Hinikie got vs the value that was available to him with the #10 pick.


I get that the trade really offends some Orlando fans.

In terms of your comments:
1) Yes, if someone else turns out better then that better player would have been better. With 100% hindsight, you can do close to 100%. I'm really not sure how this is even a comment.
2) You can look at similar trades. Again, I'm not sure how you can say this straight faced.
3) If the Pacers were planning on taking Henry at 10, and instead got Henry and another asset then that is a win. Taking Henry might be a dumb idea to begin with -- the draft part -- but getting more assets to do so -- the trade portion -- is a great move. It shouldn't be that hard to separate the two things, although I understand some people approach it with considerable feelings.
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Re: Do you agree with hinkie's rebuild plan for the sixers? 

Post#39 » by Crossy2008 » Sat Oct 17, 2015 2:41 pm

I think that the problem may not be with Hinke as much as it may be with the NBA. Very difficult to build a long term contender. Free agents tend to flock to the teams that have the best chance to win, and the draft doesn't always produce team changing talent. Guaranteed contracts frighten GM's away from throwing big money at guys that may be risky. The trade restrictions make it difficult to move on from bad contracts. Also, the talent level of draft entrants has gone up since one year eligibility has been required, but the talent and maturity is still not the same as it was when more players spent four years at college.

I think one way that the NBA can help the rebuilding process is to have a NBDL team for every team, and make it into a minor league with decent contracts. Expand the draft to four rounds and use rules similar to Hockey and Baseball for call ups and send downs.

The sixers could be a 30-40 win team if they tried to put together a competitive team, but we all know that you need a superstar to be a contending team, and most superstars are born in the top three or so selections of the draft. The only way to get there is either suck, or get a pick from a team that sucks. There was one proposition that I read where teams would not be allowed to have three consecutive years in the top five with their own pick, and that would certainly put more emphasis on winning, ala the lakers or brooklyn this year
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Re: Do you agree with hinkie's rebuild plan for the sixers? 

Post#40 » by iMoreland » Sat Oct 17, 2015 3:18 pm

Ask this question once we get Josh Jackson and Ben Simmons

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