Miami early offseason in review (HW/bondom34/dbrandon/caliban)

[Woody Allen]

Definitely should have kept Wade at that price. He's easily the greatest player of the franchise and still a great player. I hate Wade but refusing to give him the 3rd year was disrespectful.

How come you think Wade still is a great player when the team is better with him off the court?

Except that it isn't necessarily so. I don't like looking at dry analytics when evaluation basketball so that counter argument is not a starter for me.

[Village Idiot]

The result of the whole Wade free-agency is a lose-lose-lose for Wade, the Heat and Heat fans. They lost their primary shot creator, Wade looks like an idiot who only cares about money and not legacy or fit. Heat fans lose the face of the franchise and get nada to show for it.

They have some nice pieces but Whiteside, Dragic and Winslow are all complimentary pieces. I don't think Bosh can realistically be counted on to come back and contribute. Who is going to create offense for them? Luol Deng is a highly underrated glue guy to me and he'll be missed. The Lakers got him really cheap too IMHO.

So then the question is, what is the strategy? To me it seems like they are going to struggle to make the playoffs with such a limited offensive capability. They won't be bad enough to get a top pick though and that is where the talent usually is.

I gave them a D.

[Texas Chuck]

Definitely should have kept Wade at that price. He's easily the greatest player of the franchise and still a great player. I hate Wade but refusing to give him the 3rd year was disrespectful.

How come you think Wade still is a great player when the team is better with him off the court?

Except that it isn't necessarily so. I don't like looking at dry analytics when evaluation basketball so that counter argument is not a starter for me.

No it is so. It's a fact that the Heat played better with Wade off the court than on. That doesn't mean he's not still a good or useful player, mind you. But those stats are simply telling us what occurred in black in white. It's up to each of us then to figure out why that happened, but we can't deny that it did.

As far as keeping him or not, well each franchise has to make their own decision in that regard. I for one am glad Dirk will be retiring a Maverick, but many fans disagree. And obviously Dallas can't start turning the page on the next generation until Dirk is gone. I'm in no rush to be terrible, but many smart people would advocate making a move like Miami did here and not being hand-cuffed to a declining star.

[Texas Chuck]

, Wade looks like an idiot who only cares about money and not legacy or fit.

I'm honestly the last guy who wants to defend Wade. But the message I got from Wade was that this was more a matter of respect for him than money. Because in the end the money difference was negligible.

[TKainZero]

Comical that people are giving the heat an "A"

They lost their best player in franchise history and the 3rd best SG of all time.

This is an "F"

[R-DAWG]

Interesting offseason for Miami. They prioritized Whiteside so that means they trust and believe in him that he will work hard and be focused after getting a big payday. While losing Luol Deng hurts, that contract would be a negative down the road.

They botched the Wade situation, but it might be in their best interest to move on. Same goes with Deng. Last years team was maybe going to give Cleveland a run for their money if Bosh was healthy. No need to lock yourself into that long term.

Moving forward the Heat have so many question marks. Bosh's healthy. Whiteside after a payday. The development of Winslow, Richardson, ect. Dragic back to being the primary offensive player for the first time since his all-NBA year in PHX. Best case this team can be a 50 win team. Worst case, this team can be a 25 win team. I can't think of a more fluid situation in the league.

In the worst case scenario - Miami builds up the trade value of Goran Dragic and recoups some of the value they surrendered for him and they basically have control of their picks the next 2 years (own this years pick and top 8 protection next year).

The only thing I really disliked, besides HOW the Wade thing played out as opposed to the end result, is matching the Tyler Johnson contract. The man has played a TOTAL of 68 NBA games over 2 seasons and really hasn't done much besides shoot a solid percentage from 3 at a low usage. $50 million, including 2 years at $20 million, is a crazy gamble and something tells me if Miami knew they could get Dion Waiters for $3 million per year and $6 million total they would not have matched on Johnson.

At the end of the day, Miami is Miami. You can argue that they have the best pair, or one of the best pairs, of wing prospects in the game (Winslow/Richardson), a top 5 center entering his prime (Whiteside), and two all-star caliber players (Bosh and Dragic). Worst case they have a ton of flexibility next summer.

[Laimbeer]

D. They let their franchise player go at a contract he's worth under this cap.

Why do you think a player with a negative net rating is worth $23,750,000 per?

Because I'm not a slave to stats.

He also deserves some payback for the sacrifices he made and bringing LeBron to Miami at a point Wade could not win a title as the guy.

[puppa bear]

D. They let their franchise player go at a contract he's worth under this cap.

Why do you think a player with a negative net rating is worth $23,750,000 per?

Because I'm not a slave to stats.

He also deserves some payback for the sacrifices he made and bringing LeBron to Miami at a point Wade could not win a title as the guy.

The big 3 all took the same contracts, then made the same sacrifices to get Miller. Wade took less to facilitate resigning UD.

Miami gave up assists so that the big-3 could get the 6th year (via S&Ts), but they never used them & opted out after the 4th. We had to give up 4 picks (3 of our own & 1 Raptors - they luckily didn't amount to anything) for extra years that they never used.

[Laimbeer]

Why do you think a player with a negative net rating is worth $23,750,000 per?

Because I'm not a slave to stats.

He also deserves some payback for the sacrifices he made and bringing LeBron to Miami at a point Wade could not win a title as the guy.

The big 3 all took the same contracts, then made the same sacrifices to get Miller. Wade took less to facilitate resigning UD.

Miami gave up assists so that the big-3 could get the 6th year (via S&Ts), but they never used them & opted out after the 4th. We had to give up 4 picks (3 of our own & 1 Raptors - they luckily didn't amount to anything) for extra years that they never used.

Exactly. Wade took less money than he could have.

[HartfordWhalers]

I'm the most positive guy on the offseason with the only A vote.

Let this be a lesson to all you who find me too negative on your team are wrong.

[Hoops23]

Best move is making Whiteside resigns.

They said, Heat worst move is letting D-Wade walk. But you need to consider the players signed for the $20m starting salary offered to Wade; Miami were able to get Ellington, D. Williamas, J. Johnson & Babbit. So its quantity vs. quality. But D-Wade is often injure and barely will play 70 games. So I dont know if losing Wade is d worst. I think missing on KD is the worst for the Heat.

[puppa bear]

Because I'm not a slave to stats.

He also deserves some payback for the sacrifices he made and bringing LeBron to Miami at a point Wade could not win a title as the guy.

The big 3 all took the same contracts, then made the same sacrifices to get Miller. Wade took less to facilitate resigning UD.

Miami gave up assists so that the big-3 could get the 6th year (via S&Ts), but they never used them & opted out after the 4th. We had to give up 4 picks (3 of our own & 1 Raptors - they luckily didn't amount to anything) for extra years that they never used.

Exactly. Wade took less money than he could have.

So that he could play with a player he wanted to play with, in the place he wanted to play. They negotiated, he had to make concessions & couldn't get all the terms he wanted. He picked UD over the extra money. The club does not owe him for that choice.

He's a big boy & made his decisions. He ultimately decided that he wanted a change - so be it. The "Heat owed him money" narrative is getting old, and needs to just be dropped.

The club could not commit to a Kobe contract without sacrificing being competitive in the near future, and given the picks owed (to upgrade the roster around Wade/Bosh) letting Whiteside walk and keeping Wade would have hamstrung the team and forced us to be a treadmill team for the next 4 years. This outcome allows us to maximise the pick this year (if desired) or rebuild with a longer window, sooner.

Yes I would have loved Wade to be a one-team player, and yes it hurts him going to a team like the Bulls (one we have competed against, a lot, and sometimes very bitterly). But, life goes on, and so does the game.

[jazzfan1971]

Not sure who Tyler Johnson even is. But, do you really want a 6'4" 186lb Shooting guard in today's NBA? Seems like he'll get overmatched most nights.

[caliban]

Not sure who Tyler Johnson even is. But, do you really want a 6'4" 186lb Shooting guard in today's NBA? Seems like he'll get overmatched most nights.

He's a 1,5. He will get overmatched the minutes he plays there some nights but I don't get what it has to do with today's NBA. Anyway, on to who he is (that army night jersey sure is hideous):

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

[Mich3006]

If Chris Bosh can be the 21/8 type of player once again the Heat could reach the playoffs. Otherwise their roster is filled with role players and I really don´t know who could bring 20+ ppg (no Dion, you´re not Kobe Wade).

Whiteside will never be an offensive threat and Winslow needs two more years. Don´t know much about Richardson and Johnson, but matching that 4/50 contract is a risk imo.

[tiderulz]

That story is never ever random, and this time it was about how Bosh, Lebron and Wade had been greedy in wanting a 6th year on their contracts in 2010, and how that had cost the Heat valuable future picks, the one this year for example. Contracts the trio surely where going to opt out of. The sensmoral; Wade sacrificed but so did the Heat. There's always two sides to the story.

all 3 took less then market value to play together and bring the Heat 2 titles and they are the greedy ones?

[tiderulz]

, Wade looks like an idiot who only cares about money and not legacy or fit.

I'm honestly the last guy who wants to defend Wade. But the message I got from Wade was that this was more a matter of respect for him than money. Because in the end the money difference was negligible.

this is how i saw it too

[caliban]

That story is never ever random, and this time it was about how Bosh, Lebron and Wade had been greedy in wanting a 6th year on their contracts in 2010, and how that had cost the Heat valuable future picks, the one this year for example. Contracts the trio surely where going to opt out of. The sensmoral; Wade sacrificed but so did the Heat. There's always two sides to the story.

all 3 took less then market value to play together and bring the Heat 2 titles and they are the greedy ones?

Just wrote the point it to me sounded Riley wanted to raise. I could be wrong. Personally I think it always is a negotiation like any other business. You get what you get. The emotional by product is mostly a fan investment in the topic at hand.

[jazzfan1971]

Not sure who Tyler Johnson even is. But, do you really want a 6'4" 186lb Shooting guard in today's NBA? Seems like he'll get overmatched most nights.

He's a 1,5. He will get overmatched the minutes he plays there some nights but I don't get what it has to do with today's NBA. Anyway, on to who he is (that army night jersey sure is hideous):

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

That second clip makes me wonder just how many point guard had their season best game vs. the Jazz and that stalwart defense of Trey Burke and Raul Neto

Johnson did look good in those clips. I liked his athleticism.

[caliban]

First; Great post and addition to the thread, you raised some valid concerns about the op.

How come you think Wade still is a great player when the team is better with him off the court?

Hi Caliban, I really appreciate the thorough write-up, and I really, really value the way you link to the sources for the figures you quote. That's serious, top-notch research presentation...

The "but" is that it feels a bit like you have a different stat for every player, and a lot of them feel chosen to reflect you narrative. If you think RAPM is the right measure for Wade, for example, then it's probably worth mentioning that Tyler Johnson also rates out as a net negative by that measure, while Gerald Green doesn't - rather than pointing in another direction when you get to him.

I do not feel like RAPM is the right measure for Wade, Johnson or Green. If I had to choose one I'd pick BPM (you?) but I don't have to luckily. A good blend outperforms them all in solitude as far as I've seen, and a blend is also what I'm leaning on when considering player impact by numbers. Outside of that I also try not to compare players with different roles say for example; Wade, Johnson & Green as you though would be what I should have done? (or did you write it to just raise the question?). To me the numbers simply captures how well they did their specifik task, and regarding Wade, how well he executed the 1st banana role. And the answer to that is not very well.

So then, why did I chose to highlight RAPM and not say ws48 or BPM for Wade? Two things. 1) They all tell about the same story, Wade's impact on the game is about starter to low end starter at this point (BPM ,8 & ws48 at ,105) and more importantly, non of them answers my initial question "Is Wade’s production worth 2 years, $47.5 million at this point?" in a notable divergent matter than RAPM does. Because of this and 2) time constraints I simply chose not to. You made me realize that I should have included them for a broader picture and that it actually would have help my point or narrative if you so choose.

If a stat is one of general application, like RAPM, then if you believe in it you don't need "rim protection index" and if you don't then it probably doesn't tell us anything useful.

As I stated above and now should be clear I do not consider RAPM or any other stat in singular to be a good way to go.

The choice of RAPM and "rim protection index" in the case of Hassan was to imo best display that Hassan, as the season went along, bettered up on his most glaring weakness. This weakness was also often rightfully raised by his detractors, namely that Hassan's chase for individual blocks was a detriment to the teams defense. While he still does this too much and still could help the defense more than he's done so far, we now can conclude that the defense last season at least was better while he was doing it. I could and should have made this connection better.

And no, I do not think the "rim protection index" has any value standing by it's own and barley in combination either. It simply tries to answer how well a players protects the rim, not if that protection helps the team win which should be what in total is the goal of one's evaluation.

I can see the appeal in marshalling all the evidence and letting the reader decide, but mostly I think it's worth pointing to consistent measures across the whole roster. You seem pretty committed to Wade's RAPM, and pretty open minded about everyone else's - it's hard to justify Whiteside's money if he's not a top 80 player at his age, for example...

I think I've answered this indirectly in the parts above and of course it's hard to justify Whiteside's money if he's not a top 80 player at his age.

Hopefully I manage to straighten out some question marks and please, do not write another solid post I feel obligated to answer as well as I can in a language I do not master. Takes me forever.