Post#35 » by DeBlazerRiddem » Fri Aug 19, 2016 1:25 am
Key Losses:
- Future flexibility: Blazers spent a ton this offseason, should be well into the luxury tax next season, limited their flexibility.
Losses:
Gerald Henderson
- Probably the most significant player loss. He is surprisingly athletic and a good midrange game, plus fit the lockerroom very well. Turner should replace much of what he did, but he was good for us. Much better than Afflalo ever was.
Chris Kaman
- Don't know why we guaranteed him $5 million last season either. He was our only post player, and apparently a good mentor, but this is no big loss
Brian Roberts
- Meh, backup PG who didn't ever do much
Cliff Alexander
- Took a flier on the guy, he never really broke into the rotation despite us needing a physical big.
Draft:
#47 Jake Layman (traded for)
- I hated this pick. He wasn't on my radar at all (maybe I overrate assist rates though, but that and thinking his defense is not as good as advertised took him out of my interest entirely). Cornelie was a guy I had interest in, and I also would have rather had Bentil, Payton or Felder. Really my targets went a little higher and I wish we could have moved up a little higher for one of Diallo, Brogdon or McCaw. Zubac too, but I had him as a 1st rounder. My other 2ed round targets went much higher (really wanted Papagiannis).
Trades:
2019 second round draft pick and cash (TBD) to Orlando Magic for the rights to Jake Layman (47th).
- As I said, I didn't like the pick. I would happily do a future 2ed and cash for a guy I really believed in, but I don't with Layman.
Cash (TBD) to Orlando Magic for Shabazz Napier
- Another meh backup point guard. Too many other cheap and more experienced PGs.
Free Agency:
C.J. McCollum 4/$106.6m extension (starts next year)
- Its a lot of money, but we kind of had to do it. Its nice that its not tied to the salary cap, whereas someone probably would have offered him a full max next summer. He should continue to maintain value as a legit 2ed option, so this was a good move to lock him up early.
Allen Crabbe 4/$74.8m (PO on last year. Matched contract of Nets)
- Our worst move of the off-season IMO. I was ready to say good-bye to Allen at anything over ~14 per year. I think he's 1 dimensional, with overrated defense and inconsistent shooting. He can make a difference in short periods, but gets exposed in longer shifts. A lot of other people seem higher on him and he's a fine prototypical 3&D player but he's not a difference maker IMO.
Evan Turner 4/$70m
- I thought this was a good move. Excuse my little rant here, but there are so many people saying Olshey negotiated against himself and outbid the market for him. I think thats a load of hogwash. I mean, its one thing to say if you know that Turner was only getting offers around $8 million and Olshey doubled that for no reason, but if you are just saying it because the number surprised you - with no idea what the actual market was - then you are basically hating on Olshey out of ignorance. Do you really think the guy doesn't know how to do his job? Isn't it pretty likely, with all the money going around this summer, that some other team was offering ~14-15 million and Portland had to ante up to overcome our West coast, small city, weather and tax disadvantages? To me, that makes more sense than Olshey threw a random high number that was no-where close to any of the other offers. Again, if someone has inside info stating otherwise, that is a different story, but if you dont then give the guy some credit before slandering him.
Ok, that rant over, it is a very different thing to say that Turner was overpaid and may not live up to his contract. That could be. However, I think Turner is going to be a fantastic fit in Portland. Both McCollum and Lillard have been better scorers when playing with a PG next to them. I have long been advocating that Portland needs a point-forward to make that back-court work because they are such phenomenal scorers and mediocre facilitators that they need a guy like Turner/Batum/Evans/Iggy (LeBron would work too) to let them do what they do best. Some of the worst parts of our offense last year was when one of Lillard/McCollum were on the court and teams would just shut them down - no one else could do anything with the ball to prevent that kind of defense. With the ball in Turners hand and one of Lillard/McCollum freely running around the court, no one is going to focus on shutting down the ball-handler, which will open up a ton of options on offense. With a passing and movement-oriented offense, this will be a good thing.
Mo Harkless 4/$42m (with 2m in unlikely bonus as well)
- I thought this was a pretty decent contract as well. Harkless is such a good defender, with elite athleticism, size and length. People don't seem to realize, there was a reason he ended the season starting for us, and its because he earned it. He's also a really good slasher, putting his athleticism to use and finishing in the paint. I would want to pair him with a shooting coach all summer long because he's not entirely hopeless but he is really bad from range. And that FT% really does need to come up, he certainly has the skills to do that. IMO this is the Blazers best chance for a breakout player ala Jimmy Butler (I see some similarities) in which case this contract becomes a steal but even if Harkless plateaus its not a terrible contract for a guy who can start and do just fine.
Meyers Leonard 4/$41m
- Meh, I didn't really like this but its not a terrible contract I suppose. Leonard is such a mix of intriguing skills and infuriating actions though. He has an elite shot, tons of range, good touch around the basket. He's got a good frame, strong. He doesn't have great foot-speed, but has pretty good straight-line speed running the court. Definitely shouldn't be used as a PF on defense, but he's good athletically for a center. He also has the ability to make some amazing passes, half-court bullets right to their mark but he so often does them at the wrong time. This kind of defines him as a player, he has so many tools and no idea how or when to best use them. Makes some of the most boneheaded mistakes on the court. It could be a lack of experience, it could be slow reaction times, it could just be a poor BBIQ (likely some combo of the 3) but whatever it is, it hasn't really improved since getting drafted.
Festus Ezeli 2/$15.1m (1m gtd year 2)
- On the surface this seems like a great contract, but it really makes you wonder how bad his health must be. This is a terrible contract for a player, its about the same salary as Cole Adrich but much less leverage and guaranteed money. I think there is something we fans don't know about that really scared off teams. People saying he should fire his agent are being silly for the same reasons as people saying Olshey outbid the market - basically they know more than we do and its ridiculous to first assume they just messed up without knowing all the facts.
Jake Layman 3/$2.6m (first 2 years gtd)
- Again, didn't really like the draft pick, but the contract isn't terrible if we do believe in him.
Tim Quarterman mostly unguaranteed 2/$1.4m
- I didn't really like or see much from him the few LSU games I caught. The Blazers are at 16 players, so I'm pretty sure he's the guy to go.
Current Depth Chart: (as usual this is a rough draft taken from bbinsiders)
PG: Damian Lillard, Shabazz Napier, Tim Quarterman
SG: C.J. McCollum, Allen Crabbe
SF: Evan Turner, Mo Harkless, Pat Connaughton, Luis Montero, Jake Layman
PF: Al-Farouq Aminu, Meyers Leonard, Ed Davis
C: Mason Plumlee, Festus Ezeli, Noah Vonleh
Depth chart
Well Portland has gone all in on versatile players and Stotts tweaks his rotations based on match-ups, so the classic depth chart wont really capture the projected lineups.
-McCollum and Turner will probably share backup PG duties when Lillard is off the floor, so Napier is mostly going to be reserved for garbage time. Heck, there will probably be significant time that Lillard gets off ball as well, as his scoring numbers have always been more impressive with a pass-first player playing PG beside him.
- Connaughton, Montero and Quarterman are really more of SGs in my opinion. One of the 3 will be let go.
- Leonard did not do well at PF last year, he seems pretty niche as a stretch 5. Additionally, in Stotts offense, Davis is often a 5 as well. Vonleh is more of a PF than either of them.
So I would propose something like:
PG: Lillard, McCollum/Turner, Napier
SG: McCollum, Crabbe/Lillard, Connaughton/Montero/Quarterman
SF: Turner, Aminu/Harkless, Crabbe/Layman
PF: Aminu, Davis/Vonleh, Leonard/Layman
C: Plumlee, Ezeli/Leonard, Davis
Needs:
Right now the Blazers are pretty full up at each position. I can see some moves to further round us out, but each of them would require a follow-up move to balance us out. I'm going to separate this out into a star need and a role need.
- Our biggest star need is from the forward positions. I think they are OK right now with how the roster is set up, as Turner can create for others and Aminu/Harkless are good finishers, but we have no one to really create for themselves. I think the decent scorers like this are highly coveted and mediocre scorers from this position do more harm than good. So while the Blazers have a fine assortment of role players at this position, if I had my wish of trading for any star to pair with our back-court, I would want a forward most of all. Kevin Love may be the best fit at an attainable price.
- I think the biggest role player need right now is front-court offense, especially from the post, simply because we have no one who can respectfully fill that role. That was Kaman's only job last year, and while we only needed him sparingly and he was overall rather disappointing, we now have no one to throw into that role. I would strongly consider moving Crabbe for someone like Kanter or Monroe, but this would end up stacking the front-court and creating a hole at the guard positions (I don't believe any of Connaughton/Montero/Quarterman are ready for significant minutes).
- There is some debate about whether the back-up PG position is another position of need for a role player better than Napier. Personally, I don't think a team can have too many PGs, simply because a competent PG is too important to running a team and with so many, there is no excuse not to have an extra. I would love a veteran pass-first player with decent defense, particularly someone who knows how to feed big men (Lillard and McCollum are a little weak on this). With Lillard/McCollum/Turner all likely to see minutes though, this veteran would have to be OK with inconsistent minutes.
Additional Thoughts:
Blazers spent so much money this summer. I think we will just barely avoid the luxury tax this year although its possible a bonus or something will push us over. Next summer will hurt though with McCollums near-max deal kicking in, so we should be looking at ways to cut salary. Also I always want to get lightly protected future picks from dysfunctional teams, but there's only 1 Billy King. Overall, we should be debating sacrificing some depth to get cheaper future assets.
Projected Win/Loss:
I think people are slightly sleeping on the Blazers. We have great chemistry and a fantastic coach. The West is a little stronger, but I think Portand will be competitive in the RS with ~48 wins.
Off-Season Grade:
B
I think it was a pretty average off-season. I initially had them at a C+ but I think they set themselves up well for the future and committed to a direction, which is a good thing for a franchise. I don't see any home-run moves, we basically held serve relying on incremental internal improvements. Turner is our big addition and I think he'll fit in nicely (again, getting Lillard and McCollum into more of a scoring, less of a facilitating role should be a good thing) but we paid a significant price for that, so it kind of balances out to average. Crabbe is the contract I'm really unhappy about, Leonard as well. Harkless is a fine deal IMO, but probably wont turn into a steal over-night ala Aminu/Davis last summer. I do like that we have set ourselves up to be young and dynamic, which helps balance out the massive amount of money spent, as its truly an investment in the future.
