Hou - Mia - LAL (Houston cashes in its vets)

Moderators: Texas Chuck, BullyKing, Andre Roberstan, loserX, Trader_Joe, Mamba4Goat, pacers33granger, MoneyTalks41890, HartfordWhalers

User avatar
puppa bear
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,361
And1: 4,500
Joined: Jan 06, 2006
Location: Perth, Australia
   

Re: Hou - Mia - LAL (Houston cashes in its vets) 

Post#21 » by puppa bear » Fri Feb 4, 2022 2:36 am

BBallFreak wrote:Miami isn't trading two first round picks for Wood, no matter what one poster on our board says. That's far too high an asking price. It's clearly the Lakers that needs to pay, here.

100% this. Most posters are okay with trading a 1st, but not two. Maybe a 1st and a young player.

Additionally, we can’t trade the 2024, since the 2023 is owed to OKC. It’s protection makes it hard to trade other picks until it’s conveyed, and I imagine swaps become equally hard to word, as there needs to be safeties built in just in case it doesn’t convey next year.

I’m happy for protected swaps (eg top-4 type things), if Houston value that. But with a core of Lowry/Jimmy/Bam/Herro/Woods it’s not likely we drop much beyond a play-in spot, even with injuries.

Personally, Im still not 100% sold on Woods being the best trade for us. Spo would need to be Willo Ng to play Bam/Woods together for long chunks to get the most from the trade, and he’s shown minimal desire to play two traditional posts - even if it’s one high and one low.
User avatar
gom
Heat forum: Expert Predictor
Posts: 18,616
And1: 42,723
Joined: May 30, 2014
Location: Earth-616
   

Re: Hou - Mia - LAL (Houston cashes in its vets) 

Post#22 » by gom » Fri Feb 4, 2022 2:45 am

I'm not on the Woods train at all, for what it's worth. We have a lot of different fan perspectives.
Image
I remember 11-30 with these guys. ^
jbk1234
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 59,115
And1: 36,163
Joined: Dec 22, 2010
 

Re: Hou - Mia - LAL (Houston cashes in its vets) 

Post#23 » by jbk1234 » Fri Feb 4, 2022 2:46 am

I guess I'm having a difficult time seeing the Rockets owner agreeing to pay Wall and Westbrook just short of $100M next year. I mean that's just two players.
cbosh4mvp wrote:
Jarret Allen isn’t winning you anything. Garland won’t show up in the playoffs. Mobley is a glorified dunk man. Mitchell has some experience but is a liability on defense. To me, the Cavs are a treadmill team.
ThatBoyNick
Lead Assistant
Posts: 4,675
And1: 3,628
Joined: Jul 12, 2014
 

Re: Hou - Mia - LAL (Houston cashes in its vets) 

Post#24 » by ThatBoyNick » Fri Feb 4, 2022 3:17 am

The clash here is trying to understand Robinson's value, OP clearly values him as a decisively bad contract, and I'd agree.

1 moderately protected first to dump Robinson, 1 moderately protected first for Wood

That valuation seems pretty damn reasonable.

The Heat have easily made Robinson expendable by matching his production with a couple of vet min G-Leaguers in Straus and Vincent, which says a lot.

Robinson is owed 18.5 mill over 4 years after this season, if you waive him before his last year starts you cut off about 10 million, then you'd essentially be paying Robinson 21.4 million for 3 years of his service. That's a lot of money for a 1 trick poney who's fallen back to earth after getting paid.

Now if you want to argue the pick protections... I still don't see it, maybe top 9 or 10 instead? I wouldn't do that swap for lotto-protected picks. Another disagreement here could be about Wood's value, some made such a huge deal over his incident and feel like his value plummeted, but he's been balling, I don't see Houston moving him for a well protected single first, there has to be some upside when sending out such a talented player.
ThatBoyNick
Lead Assistant
Posts: 4,675
And1: 3,628
Joined: Jul 12, 2014
 

Re: Hou - Mia - LAL (Houston cashes in its vets) 

Post#25 » by ThatBoyNick » Fri Feb 4, 2022 3:34 am

BBallFreak wrote:Miami isn't trading two first round picks for Wood, no matter what one poster on our board says. That's far too high an asking price. It's clearly the Lakers that needs to pay, here.
puppa bear wrote:100% this. Most posters are okay with trading a 1st, but not two. Maybe a 1st and a young player.

Additionally, we can’t trade the 2024, since the 2023 is owed to OKC. It’s protection makes it hard to trade other picks until it’s conveyed, and I imagine swaps become equally hard to word, as there needs to be safeties built in just in case it doesn’t convey next year.

I’m happy for protected swaps (eg top-4 type things), if Houston value that. But with a core of Lowry/Jimmy/Bam/Herro/Woods it’s not likely we drop much beyond a play-in spot, even with injuries.

Personally, Im still not 100% sold on Woods being the best trade for us. Spo would need to be Willo Ng to play Bam/Woods together for long chunks to get the most from the trade, and he’s shown minimal desire to play two traditional posts - even if it’s one high and one low.
gom wrote:I'm not on the Woods train at all, for what it's worth. We have a lot of different fan perspectives.


My question is here, why is Robinson being valued a neutral contract? Why is an 18/12 guy on above average efficiency on a cheap contract only worth one first from a team that's notoriously for always being good by being such a free agent draw?

That's a lot of value for not a lot of upside on Houstons end, maybe it's not the right deal for Miami but it's a bit off to expect a Robinson/Wood swap to cost a single first.
User avatar
puppa bear
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,361
And1: 4,500
Joined: Jan 06, 2006
Location: Perth, Australia
   

Re: Hou - Mia - LAL (Houston cashes in its vets) 

Post#26 » by puppa bear » Fri Feb 4, 2022 9:30 am

ThatBoyNick wrote:
BBallFreak wrote:Miami isn't trading two first round picks for Wood, no matter what one poster on our board says. That's far too high an asking price. It's clearly the Lakers that needs to pay, here.
puppa bear wrote:100% this. Most posters are okay with trading a 1st, but not two. Maybe a 1st and a young player.

Additionally, we can’t trade the 2024, since the 2023 is owed to OKC. It’s protection makes it hard to trade other picks until it’s conveyed, and I imagine swaps become equally hard to word, as there needs to be safeties built in just in case it doesn’t convey next year.

I’m happy for protected swaps (eg top-4 type things), if Houston value that. But with a core of Lowry/Jimmy/Bam/Herro/Woods it’s not likely we drop much beyond a play-in spot, even with injuries.

Personally, Im still not 100% sold on Woods being the best trade for us. Spo would need to be Willo Ng to play Bam/Woods together for long chunks to get the most from the trade, and he’s shown minimal desire to play two traditional posts - even if it’s one high and one low.
gom wrote:I'm not on the Woods train at all, for what it's worth. We have a lot of different fan perspectives.


My question is here, why is Robinson being valued a neutral contract? Why is an 18/12 guy on above average efficiency on a cheap contract only worth one first from a team that's notoriously for always being good by being such a free agent draw?

That's a lot of value for not a lot of upside on Houstons end, maybe it's not the right deal for Miami but it's a bit off to expect a Robinson/Wood swap to cost a single first.

I see the value gap in a vacuum as a first, but I see Houston as a poor fit for Robinson. I understand why they would want a second 1st - though I don’t think Heat should send it.

Robinson started poorly, but in Dec shot 37.6% then 41.1% in Jan (38.5% in the two games in Feb). He’s actually been solid on the road at 38.6%, but home has been a stinky 33.2%.

My feelings on the original deal is that Lakers don’t give enough. With Bron & AD, Robinson would have a field day, so his “one trick” would be quite valuable. Taking one defender away from being able to pack the paint makes life a little easier for LeBron as well.
BBallFreak
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 57,392
And1: 18,576
Joined: Jun 23, 2001
   

Re: Hou - Mia - LAL (Houston cashes in its vets) 

Post#27 » by BBallFreak » Fri Feb 4, 2022 11:08 am

ThatBoyNick wrote:The clash here is trying to understand Robinson's value, OP clearly values him as a decisively bad contract, and I'd agree.

1 moderately protected first to dump Robinson, 1 moderately protected first for Wood

That valuation seems pretty damn reasonable.

The Heat have easily made Robinson expendable by matching his production with a couple of vet min G-Leaguers in Straus and Vincent, which says a lot.

Robinson is owed 18.5 mill over 4 years after this season, if you waive him before his last year starts you cut off about 10 million, then you'd essentially be paying Robinson 21.4 million for 3 years of his service. That's a lot of money for a 1 trick poney who's fallen back to earth after getting paid.

Now if you want to argue the pick protections... I still don't see it, maybe top 9 or 10 instead? I wouldn't do that swap for lotto-protected picks. Another disagreement here could be about Wood's value, some made such a huge deal over his incident and feel like his value plummeted, but he's been balling, I don't see Houston moving him for a well protected single first, there has to be some upside when sending out such a talented player.
Our issue is that we're very much helping LA turn Westbrook and one first into two much more manageable, smaller contacts who happen to be much better fits with that team. How do they turn Westbrick, in his current state, into Eric Gordon and Duncan Robinson, both of whom are undeniably more valuable than Westbrook?

If it takes a first to neutralize Duncan's value and another first to get a useful player, what should LA be giving up to make this happen?

Next, you have the fact that you don't actually understand his game and what he does do well. This isn't a catch and shoot guy. Yes, he started the season shooting badly, but we were able to overcome that, get his shooting back on track, and keep riding with the guy. Ask yourself why we bothered when we have Martin, Tucker, Strus, and Vincent all shooting well? The answer is that he's a gravity player. He doesn't stand in the corner waiting for the ball. He's constantly moving through screens, round and round in circles. Think Reggie Miller, though obviously not as good, but just as defense warping. He changes the way defenses approach Miami and makes things much more difficult on the opponent. Even in his down year, he's very important to how we work as an offense.

Then, finally, you have the fact that Wood puts up great numbers on not great teams (no offense). He's not going to come here and take offensive focus away from Bam, Butler, or Herro. How's he going to deal with being an offensive afterthought? When you consider that we have Omer Yurtseven that we're developing, Dewayne Dedmon who's keeping him on the bench, Bam Adebayo who's all-star caliber, and PJ Tucker who's one of the best glue players in the game and an amazing three point shooter, and I don't see the need to pay a premium.

In short, we're paying for LA to get better while talking away an important dimension to our offense. I'm not seeing it...
SA37
RealGM
Posts: 18,694
And1: 9,378
Joined: Sep 10, 2002
Location: Basking in the Glory
 

Re: Hou - Mia - LAL (Houston cashes in its vets) 

Post#28 » by SA37 » Fri Feb 4, 2022 11:53 am

I agree with pretty much everything BBallFreak said above.

Robinson is easily a top-10 3-point shooter in the league, if not top 5. As BBallFreak correctly points out, Robinson is not a spot-up 3-point shooter who needs shots to be created for him; he is very good moving without the ball and, imo, his ability to put the ball on the floor is underrated. Despite all that, Robinson is overpaid, but not as overpaid as Westbrook, John Wall, Kevin Love or other players who are not only overpaid, but are eating up 35-40% of the salary cap.

No question Robinson has more value to Miami than most other teams, but that is why Miami is not going to just accept a trade where Robinson is not valued.
ThatBoyNick
Lead Assistant
Posts: 4,675
And1: 3,628
Joined: Jul 12, 2014
 

Re: Hou - Mia - LAL (Houston cashes in its vets) 

Post#29 » by ThatBoyNick » Fri Feb 4, 2022 2:56 pm

I never even mentioned the WB part of the trade, it really has nothing to do with Hou/Miami’s end of the deal.

If Robinson isn’t a negative contract (because he’s not just a shooter, he’s a shooter who shoots) send him to the Cavs or Raptors for Dragic or Rubio to Houston. Problem solved.

So what’s the value for Wood? A future moderately protected 1st. A respectable offer, not sure if Hou pulls the trigger due to how good the Heat always are (hence the likeliness it’s late first), but it’s something you consider.

If Woods an empty stats guy who plays the same position as Bam Heat don’t waste a first on him, though.
User avatar
Texas Chuck
Senior Mod - NBA TnT Forum
Senior Mod - NBA TnT Forum
Posts: 92,632
And1: 99,027
Joined: May 19, 2012
Location: Purgatory
   

Re: Hou - Mia - LAL (Houston cashes in its vets) 

Post#30 » by Texas Chuck » Fri Feb 4, 2022 3:06 pm

ThatBoyNick wrote:I never even mentioned the WB part of the trade, it really has nothing to do with Hou/Miami’s end of the deal.

If Robinson isn’t a negative contract (because he’s not just a shooter, he’s a shooter who shoots) send him to the Cavs or Raptors for Dragic or Rubio to Houston. Problem solved.

So what’s the value for Wood? A future moderately protected 1st. A respectable offer, not sure if Hou pulls the trigger due to how good the Heat always are (hence the likeliness it’s late first), but it’s something you consider.

If Woods an empty stats guy who plays the same position as Bam Heat don’t waste a first on him, though.



I think the Cavs or Raps would gladly give you an expiring for Robinson. But what I don't understand is why a young team trying to develop a lot of players wouldn't value having an elite shooter to give them room with which to develop.

Crazy this belief that Robinson is some albatross contract to be avoided like the plague especially since his skill set would be so handy for what Houston hopes to accomplish plus he'd be a guy easy to move on again if the Rockets want more cap space in 2 years because teams always want what he brings.


And yes the Lakers part of this is highly relevant unless they are removed from the trade entirely. And yes Miami is being asked to pay to make the Lakers better and aren't getting any additional value in return.

And finally I have Robinson just flat helping Miami more than Wood who is going to come over and be 5th on the pecking order and we all know he's incapable and unwilling to accept that. So Miami should be balking at overpaying for a guy who makes zero sense for them.
ThunderBolt wrote:I’m going to let some of you in on a little secret I learned on realgm. If you don’t like a thread, not only do you not have to comment but you don’t even have to open it and read it. You’re welcome.
ThatBoyNick
Lead Assistant
Posts: 4,675
And1: 3,628
Joined: Jul 12, 2014
 

Re: Hou - Mia - LAL (Houston cashes in its vets) 

Post#31 » by ThatBoyNick » Fri Feb 4, 2022 3:26 pm

Chuck I think you clearly value Robinson quite a bit, we have a pretty big disagreement on his value, especially to the Rockets, but for example, we have Mathews for the vet min whos an incredibly similar player - in my opinion.


I don’t see this deal as the Heat subsidizing the Lakers, I see it as the Heat giving a fair value for a Wood/Robinson swap, then Houston making bad follow up move with the Lakers by extending the trade. OP values the pick being unprotected a ton, which is why he’d do it, personally Lakers are too much of a destination to bank on that delivering on value, it’s a gamble.

So for Houston end, what Heat fans would like to amend it to doesn’t make sense, and if the opinion is Robinson is better then Wood for the Heat, then it wouldn’t make sense for the Heat unless THEY were receiving a pick or some other compensation of talent.

So perhaps not a good fit for all
DNP-Old
Pro Prospect
Posts: 856
And1: 373
Joined: Jan 24, 2012
Location: Too far from home.

Re: Hou - Mia - LAL (Houston cashes in its vets) 

Post#32 » by DNP-Old » Fri Feb 4, 2022 4:06 pm

LarsV8 wrote:To Miami
Christain Wood

To LA
Duncan Robinson
Eric Gordon
DJ Augustin

To Houston
Russel Westbrook
1st Available #1 pick from LAL - Unprotected
2024 + 2026 Miami #1 (top 8 protected)

Miami adds an impact player and dumps an expensive and regressing player in Robinson, whose playing time is being cut.

LAL turns the page on Russ and gets some actual shooters around Lebron / AD.

Houston can park Russ next to Wall on the bench and add to their asset pile to help build the team.


My 2 cents:

LAL out: Westbrook, Nunn, Jordan, '27 1st, and '25 2nd
LAL in: Harris and Robinson

Hou out: Gordon, Wood, Theis, Augustin and Nwaba
Hou in: Westbrook, Nunn, Jordon, '22 Phi 1st, '24 Mia 1st, '25 Phi 1st and "27 LAL 1st

Mia out: Robinson and '24 1st
Mia in: Wood and Nwaba

Phi out: Harris, '22 1st and '25 1st
Phi in: Gordon, Theis, Augustin and '25 LAL 2nd
"Be quick, don't hurry" -John Wooden-

"No one is more hated than he who speaks the truth" -Plato-
Ballerhogger
RealGM
Posts: 47,741
And1: 17,306
Joined: Jul 06, 2014
       

Re: Hou - Mia - LAL (Houston cashes in its vets) 

Post#33 » by Ballerhogger » Fri Feb 4, 2022 4:27 pm

DNP-Old wrote:
LarsV8 wrote:To Miami
Christain Wood

To LA
Duncan Robinson
Eric Gordon
DJ Augustin

To Houston
Russel Westbrook
1st Available #1 pick from LAL - Unprotected
2024 + 2026 Miami #1 (top 8 protected)

Miami adds an impact player and dumps an expensive and regressing player in Robinson, whose playing time is being cut.

LAL turns the page on Russ and gets some actual shooters around Lebron / AD.

Houston can park Russ next to Wall on the bench and add to their asset pile to help build the team.


My 2 cents:

LAL out: Westbrook, Nunn, Jordan, '27 1st, and '25 2nd
LAL in: Harris and Robinson

Hou out: Gordon, Wood, Theis, Augustin and Nwaba
Hou in: Westbrook, Nunn, Jordon, '22 Phi 1st, '24 Mia 1st, '25 Phi 1st and "27 LAL 1st

Mia out: Robinson and '24 1st
Mia in: Wood and Nwaba

Phi out: Harris, '22 1st and '25 1st
Phi in: Gordon, Theis, Augustin and '25 LAL 2nd

No plans paying harris 37m for 18 and 7 next year and 39m the next year.

Return to Trades and Transactions