Value of Barrett, Herro, Simons?

[BBallFreak]

All negative value to me given how overpaid they are , would order them Herro,Simons,Barrett in order from bad to terrible

just watch the next year or so. they wont look overpaid with the new deals coming.

Never understand this argument. Other contracts potentially being worse don't make other contracts good. Barrett specifically has been a -10 guy for two years running making $100M. That's bad value unless major growth comes. Regardless if Cam Johnson gets $125M or not.

I get what you're saying, but I think the argument (I'm not saying it's correct, I just think that's the thought process) is that these deals are essentially going to be near MLE or just kinda middle of the pack and, once everyone is getting new contracts, will be looked at as average deals.

[Texas Chuck]

just watch the next year or so. they wont look overpaid with the new deals coming.

Never understand this argument. Other contracts potentially being worse don't make other contracts good. Barrett specifically has been a -10 guy for two years running making $100M. That's bad value unless major growth comes. Regardless if Cam Johnson gets $125M or not.

I get what you're saying, but I think the argument (I'm not saying it's correct, I just think that's the thought process) is that these deals are essentially going to be near MLE or just kinda middle of the pack and, once everyone is getting new contracts, will be looked at as average deals.

JaVale McGee has 2 years left on a tax MLE deal. Don't we all still agree he's a bad contract?

Contracts don't have to be top of market to be "bad".

[BBallFreak]

Never understand this argument. Other contracts potentially being worse don't make other contracts good. Barrett specifically has been a -10 guy for two years running making $100M. That's bad value unless major growth comes. Regardless if Cam Johnson gets $125M or not.

I get what you're saying, but I think the argument (I'm not saying it's correct, I just think that's the thought process) is that these deals are essentially going to be near MLE or just kinda middle of the pack and, once everyone is getting new contracts, will be looked at as average deals.

JaVale McGee has 2 years left on a tax MLE deal. Don't we all still agree he's a bad contract?

Contracts don't have to be top of market to be "bad".

Oh, I agree!

I think the point is that the performance of the players, combined with the commensurate raising of salaries across the board, would make these deals look like bargains. I'm only arguing devil's advocate, here. I'm not thrilled with the Herro contract, though I understand why we made the deal...

[gom]

I feel Barrett is a good player who will take more time than expected to grow. He is only disappointing because he was drafted too high. By contrast, Simons is more talented than his draft rank and is thus considered a bargain. None of that should matter now that all 3 have beaten the odds and been extended.

Here is a graph of weighted win shares vs draft rank. Simons has already met median career expectations for his draft rank. That's amazing. Herro is pretty far along too. Barrett has some work to do. All of them have the tools to make their critics look stupid:



Blue dots are the players in question. Weighted win shares is 2*post_season_ws + regular_season_ws. Data set is all players since 1980 draft.

I added in the other players. Now you can't see their dots:

[gom]

Code: Select all

+-----------------+--------+----------------+---------+---------+------------+---------+---------+------------+----------+
| Name            |   Rank |   Year Drafted |   MP RS |   WS RS |   WS/48 RS |   MP PO |   WS PO |   WS/48 PO |   Impact |
|-----------------+--------+----------------+---------+---------+------------+---------+---------+------------+----------|
| RJ Barrett      |      3 |           2019 |    9107 |     8.1 |      0.043 |     257 |     0.6 |      0.112 |     10.5 |
| Tyler Herro     |     13 |           2019 |    7631 |    10.6 |      0.067 |    1199 |     0.9 |      0.036 |     14.2 |
| Anfernee Simons |     24 |           2018 |    6546 |     6.5 |      0.048 |     201 |     0.3 |      0.072 |      7.7 |
+-----------------+--------+----------------+---------+---------+------------+---------+---------+------------+----------+

[gom]

Of the three players, Barrett has the highest ws/48 in the postseason. Small sample size though, less than 300 minutes. Herro has more ws overall but since 2020 has not had a great postseason.

[tiderulz]

Never understand this argument. Other contracts potentially being worse don't make other contracts good. Barrett specifically has been a -10 guy for two years running making $100M. That's bad value unless major growth comes. Regardless if Cam Johnson gets $125M or not.

I get what you're saying, but I think the argument (I'm not saying it's correct, I just think that's the thought process) is that these deals are essentially going to be near MLE or just kinda middle of the pack and, once everyone is getting new contracts, will be looked at as average deals.

JaVale McGee has 2 years left on a tax MLE deal. Don't we all still agree he's a bad contract?

Contracts don't have to be top of market to be "bad".

yeah, but he doesnt produce, or is even playing. Gary Harris might be a good example

[Texas Chuck]

I get what you're saying, but I think the argument (I'm not saying it's correct, I just think that's the thought process) is that these deals are essentially going to be near MLE or just kinda middle of the pack and, once everyone is getting new contracts, will be looked at as average deals.

JaVale McGee has 2 years left on a tax MLE deal. Don't we all still agree he's a bad contract?

Contracts don't have to be top of market to be "bad".

yeah, but he doesnt produce, or is even playing. Gary Harris might be a good example

Then pick THJ. He plays and produces and this board consistently says he's a bad contract, right? And I'm picking Mavs on purpose because I have enough posters hating me for correctly identifying bad contracts on their teams lol.

We can go round and round, but if you are a bad player hurting your team making 8 figures you are a bad contract. Someone else having a bigger bad contract doesn't change that.

And unless RJ Barrett becomes a different player he's not a bargain contract. He's clearly a bad one.

[ConSarnit]

Barrett is a positive player here as a two way player. Simons is a positive due to the contract. Herro is a negative due to defense and salary.

I'll bite. How is Barrett a two way player?

PNR: 46th percentile

Spot Up: 26th percentile

Catch and Shoot: 48% efg (ranks 66/68 for guards who take > 3 fga)

Assist%: 12.4% (a number usually reserved for 3&D players)

52% TS (league average for sg and sf: 57%)

So he's an inefficient scorer who can't run offense nor is he a good fit with other creators because he's not a good shooter.

How exactly is he a positive on offense? Getting to the line at a decent rate doesn't make up for everything else (as witnessed by his terrible ts%).

[squarepimpin]

Can I throw in the topic of Poole in this comparison … who was also paid the same time as them. And frankly has taken a national beating .. and given the punch and the spotlight of the warriors - his flaws were on front and center.

I agree all of them are overpaid - 18m p/y max should have been the ceiling on any of them. Tyler most rounded but he is always injured.


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[tiderulz]

JaVale McGee has 2 years left on a tax MLE deal. Don't we all still agree he's a bad contract?

Contracts don't have to be top of market to be "bad".

yeah, but he doesnt produce, or is even playing. Gary Harris might be a good example

Then pick THJ. He plays and produces and this board consistently says he's a bad contract, right? And I'm picking Mavs on purpose because I have enough posters hating me for correctly identifying bad contracts on their teams lol.

We can go round and round, but if you are a bad player hurting your team making 8 figures you are a bad contract. Someone else having a bigger bad contract doesn't change that.

And unless RJ Barrett becomes a different player he's not a bargain contract. He's clearly a bad one.

i agree, it just seems to come down to, what is a bad player. seems people these days, if someone is making more than $20mil, it is expected they practically be a star and the way average salaries will start to rise, that just wont be the case.

[ConSarnit]

just watch the next year or so. they wont look overpaid with the new deals coming.

Never understand this argument. Other contracts potentially being worse don't make other contracts good. Barrett specifically has been a -10 guy for two years running making $100M. That's bad value unless major growth comes. Regardless if Cam Johnson gets $125M or not.

I get what you're saying, but I think the argument (I'm not saying it's correct, I just think that's the thought process) is that these deals are essentially going to be near MLE or just kinda middle of the pack and, once everyone is getting new contracts, will be looked at as average deals.

I'm not sure what numbers you're looking at? Even if the cap goes up by 10% YOY starting next year the MLE will maybe be $15m in 2026/27.

2026/27 Salaries:

MLE: ~$15m

Barrett: $29.6m

Herro: $33m

Simons: $27.6 (expires in 25/26)

Since when is $30m essentially near $15m?

Bad contracts getting slightly less bad still makes them bad.

[WargamesX]

Barrett is a positive player here as a two way player. Simons is a positive due to the contract. Herro is a negative due to defense and salary.

I'll bite. How is Barrett a two way player?

PNR: 46th percentile

Spot Up: 26th percentile

Catch and Shoot: 48% efg (ranks 66/68 for guards who take > 3 fga)

Assist%: 12.4% (a number usually reserved for 3&D players)

52% TS (league average for sg and sf: 57%)

So he's an inefficient scorer who can't run offense nor is he a good fit with other creators because he's not a good shooter.

How exactly is he a positive on offense? Getting to the line at a decent rate doesn't make up for everything else (as witnessed by his terrible ts%).

That’s my opinion, my eye test tells me all I need to see

[ConSarnit]

Barrett is a positive player here as a two way player. Simons is a positive due to the contract. Herro is a negative due to defense and salary.

I'll bite. How is Barrett a two way player?

PNR: 46th percentile

Spot Up: 26th percentile

Catch and Shoot: 48% efg (ranks 66/68 for guards who take > 3 fga)

Assist%: 12.4% (a number usually reserved for 3&D players)

52% TS (league average for sg and sf: 57%)

So he's an inefficient scorer who can't run offense nor is he a good fit with other creators because he's not a good shooter.

How exactly is he a positive on offense? Getting to the line at a decent rate doesn't make up for everything else (as witnessed by his terrible ts%).

That’s my opinion, my eye test tells me all I need to see

It might be time to see an optometrist.

[WargamesX]

I'll bite. How is Barrett a two way player?

PNR: 46th percentile

Spot Up: 26th percentile

Catch and Shoot: 48% efg (ranks 66/68 for guards who take > 3 fga)

Assist%: 12.4% (a number usually reserved for 3&D players)

52% TS (league average for sg and sf: 57%)

So he's an inefficient scorer who can't run offense nor is he a good fit with other creators because he's not a good shooter.

How exactly is he a positive on offense? Getting to the line at a decent rate doesn't make up for everything else (as witnessed by his terrible ts%).

That’s my opinion, my eye test tells me all I need to see

It might be time to see an optometrist.

You just don’t get it, As a knicks fan, I know my team best

[BBallFreak]

Never understand this argument. Other contracts potentially being worse don't make other contracts good. Barrett specifically has been a -10 guy for two years running making $100M. That's bad value unless major growth comes. Regardless if Cam Johnson gets $125M or not.

I get what you're saying, but I think the argument (I'm not saying it's correct, I just think that's the thought process) is that these deals are essentially going to be near MLE or just kinda middle of the pack and, once everyone is getting new contracts, will be looked at as average deals.

I'm not sure what numbers you're looking at? Even if the cap goes up by 10% YOY starting next year the MLE will maybe be $15m in 2026/27.

2026/27 Salaries:

MLE: ~$15m

Barrett: $29.6m

Herro: $33m

Simons: $27.6 (expires in 25/26)

Since when is $30m essentially near $15m?

Bad contracts getting slightly less bad still makes them bad.

I'm not looking at numbers. I'm not even making the argument. Like I've been saying I was arguing the devil's advocate, here.

[squarepimpin]

I like Barrett he plays hard… there is a space between Wiggins and Harrison Barnes of high lotto selected wing players that have long careers and are paid well but will never be all stars … Despite my hopes Barrett is destined to live in this space. And I kinda new it watching the National Title game.


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[orlando_joe]

Never understand this argument. Other contracts potentially being worse don't make other contracts good. Barrett specifically has been a -10 guy for two years running making $100M. That's bad value unless major growth comes. Regardless if Cam Johnson gets $125M or not.

I get what you're saying, but I think the argument (I'm not saying it's correct, I just think that's the thought process) is that these deals are essentially going to be near MLE or just kinda middle of the pack and, once everyone is getting new contracts, will be looked at as average deals.

I'm not sure what numbers you're looking at? Even if the cap goes up by 10% YOY starting next year the MLE will maybe be $15m in 2026/27.

2026/27 Salaries:

MLE: ~$15m

Barrett: $29.6m

Herro: $33m

Simons: $27.6 (expires in 25/26)

Since when is $30m essentially near $15m?

Bad contracts getting slightly less bad still makes them bad.

and all the contracts will be over? its about now right? next 2 yrs?

[Texas Chuck]

yeah, but he doesnt produce, or is even playing. Gary Harris might be a good example

Then pick THJ. He plays and produces and this board consistently says he's a bad contract, right? And I'm picking Mavs on purpose because I have enough posters hating me for correctly identifying bad contracts on their teams lol.

We can go round and round, but if you are a bad player hurting your team making 8 figures you are a bad contract. Someone else having a bigger bad contract doesn't change that.

And unless RJ Barrett becomes a different player he's not a bargain contract. He's clearly a bad one.

i agree, it just seems to come down to, what is a bad player. seems people these days, if someone is making more than $20mil, it is expected they practically be a star and the way average salaries will start to rise, that just wont be the case.

Yeah that's not me though. I don't think $20M returns a star. But it should return a positive on court player.

[Billl]

None of those guys are bargains for sure, but all of them have positive value in the league because they can play. You wouldn't have to attach an asset to move any of them and there would be at least one team that would offer some sort of asset to get them.