Official: [Shams] Poeltl Extends 4/$104M

[gswhoops]

The contract itself is fine but I can’t really get behind locking yourself into a play in caliber roster, which is exactly where Toronto is sitting with IQ/RJ/Ingram/Barnes/Poeltl all getting top of market deals

[Godaddycurse]

The contract itself is fine but I can’t really get behind locking yourself into a play in caliber roster, which is exactly where Toronto is sitting with IQ/RJ/Ingram/Barnes/Poeltl all getting top of market deals

Its a 2 year experiment only and they are well positioned to rebuild/pivot if they are not playing well. IQs contract will look much better by then and poeltl should still be tradable.

This would be a terrible idea in the west but i dont hate it in the east as lightthebeam said..

[gswhoops]

The contract itself is fine but I can’t really get behind locking yourself into a play in caliber roster, which is exactly where Toronto is sitting with IQ/RJ/Ingram/Barnes/Poeltl all getting top of market deals

Its a 2 year experiment only and they are well positioned to rebuild/pivot if they are not playing well. IQs contract will look much better by then and poeltl should still be tradable.

This would be a terrible idea in the west but i dont hate it in the east as lightthebeam said..

I don’t really get what the “experiment” is here, these guys are all known quantities and unless Gradey Dick turns into Kobe overnight it’s not going to be enough

[Godaddycurse]

The contract itself is fine but I can’t really get behind locking yourself into a play in caliber roster, which is exactly where Toronto is sitting with IQ/RJ/Ingram/Barnes/Poeltl all getting top of market deals

Its a 2 year experiment only and they are well positioned to rebuild/pivot if they are not playing well. IQs contract will look much better by then and poeltl should still be tradable.

This would be a terrible idea in the west but i dont hate it in the east as lightthebeam said..

I don’t really get what the “experiment” is here, these guys are all known quantities and unless Gradey Dick turns into Kobe overnight it’s not going to be enough

Experiment = try to be like the pre kawhi raptors team(s) and win without a top 15 star.

Barnes and IQ still have some upside left imo

[tmorgan]

Yeah, what’s the experiment?

They are a solid team for more than solid money that has almost zero avenues to true contention, even in the East. They won’t suck and they won’t get past the second round (and are no guarantee to make the first round, altho top 10 and a playoff game seems extremely likely).

Is this just satisfaction with treadmilling? Masai is gone, so this isn’t irrational job-saving activity. It’s just contentment with 38 to 46 wins and a beating by teams with actual playoff rosters. I don’t understand.

[Godaddycurse]

Yeah, what’s the experiment?

They are a solid team for more than solid money that has almost zero avenues to true contention, even in the East. They won’t suck and they won’t get past the second round (and are no guarantee to make the first round, altho top 10 and a playoff game seems extremely likely).

Is this just satisfaction with treadmilling? Masai is gone, so this isn’t irrational job-saving activity. It’s just contentment with 38 to 46 wins and a beating by teams with actual playoff rosters. I don’t understand.

we will know in 2 years if its treadmilling or not? The raptors pre kawhi managed to make it to ECF

[oldncreaky]

Yeah, what’s the experiment?

They are a solid team for more than solid money that has almost zero avenues to true contention, even in the East. They won’t suck and they won’t get past the second round (and are no guarantee to make the first round, altho top 10 and a playoff game seems extremely likely).

Is this just satisfaction with treadmilling? Masai is gone, so this isn’t irrational job-saving activity. It’s just contentment with 38 to 46 wins and a beating by teams with actual playoff rosters. I don’t understand.

we will know in 2 years if its treadmilling or not? The raptors pre kawhi managed to make it to ECF

I follow both of these team

If you are in a market like TOR and DET, you don't really attract FAs. The list of good FAs attracted by both teams combined in the last 20 years is pretty uninspiring -- Tobias Harris has an argument for the best signing since McDyess, and TOR is yet to have a good FA signing. Signing FAs has never been anywhere close to good enough to build a contender around. Both teams effectively have lived and died based on their ability to draft and develop -- and when you do that, you can either
(1) tank really hard and look for a franchise cornerstone
or
(2) treadmill and hope you hit with a handful of youngsters drafted late lottery or lower
Both DET and TOR have failed to contend choosing door #1 (tank) and have won it all following door #2

If you are going to go on a treadmill, might as well have a competent C to make it watchable. My finger math has Poeltl costing about 14% of the cap over the 4 years of the deal, and I think that is really good value for Jacob, so I have this as a very good signing.

Now if we can get to the TDL and flip BI for picks, TOR might have a path off the treadmill

[psman2]

Centers are not in demand. A few backups getting overpaid does not shift the market.

Likely a neutral contract at best. Don't hate it in a vacuum but stacking all these mid sized contracts before having your stars rarely works out.

Centers are absolutely in demand and when the backups at one position are the first to go off the board and get overpaid, that's exactly what it means. Plumlee was signed on the second day of free agency and I'm not convinced he's still an NBA player.

Silly take. Plumlee signs a 1 year league min guy to a team that is desperate for center === equates to high demand for centers?

Tuner got underpaid based on most people's estimation. Capela signed for what most expected. Lopez signed for less than most here expected. Sharpe signed for less than most expected. Kornet overpaid a few million. Looney is really the only guy that was paid more than what was really expected.

[gswhoops]

Yeah, what’s the experiment?

They are a solid team for more than solid money that has almost zero avenues to true contention, even in the East. They won’t suck and they won’t get past the second round (and are no guarantee to make the first round, altho top 10 and a playoff game seems extremely likely).

Is this just satisfaction with treadmilling? Masai is gone, so this isn’t irrational job-saving activity. It’s just contentment with 38 to 46 wins and a beating by teams with actual playoff rosters. I don’t understand.

we will know in 2 years if its treadmilling or not? The raptors pre kawhi managed to make it to ECF

I mean let's be real here, where do you have Toronto ranked in the East in terms of talent over the next 2 years? I'd have them no higher than 7th (Boston, NY, Cleveland, Indiana, Milwaukee, Orlando) and arguably as low as 10th (Philly, Miami, Atlanta).

[Godaddycurse]

Yeah, what’s the experiment?

They are a solid team for more than solid money that has almost zero avenues to true contention, even in the East. They won’t suck and they won’t get past the second round (and are no guarantee to make the first round, altho top 10 and a playoff game seems extremely likely).

Is this just satisfaction with treadmilling? Masai is gone, so this isn’t irrational job-saving activity. It’s just contentment with 38 to 46 wins and a beating by teams with actual playoff rosters. I don’t understand.

we will know in 2 years if its treadmilling or not? The raptors pre kawhi managed to make it to ECF

I mean let's be real here, where do you have Toronto ranked in the East in terms of talent over the next 2 years? I'd have them no higher than 7th (Boston, NY, Cleveland, Indiana, Milwaukee, Orlando) and arguably as low as 10th (Philly, Miami, Atlanta).

Indiana, Boston wont be in the top 6 next year, and questionable in 26-27 depending on how good their star is post rehab

I think a play off spot is up for grab next year or 2

[Duffman100]

The last year has 5 million guaranteed?

[jbk1234]

Centers are not in demand. A few backups getting overpaid does not shift the market.

Likely a neutral contract at best. Don't hate it in a vacuum but stacking all these mid sized contracts before having your stars rarely works out.

Centers are absolutely in demand and when the backups at one position are the first to go off the board and get overpaid, that's exactly what it means. Plumlee was signed on the second day of free agency and I'm not convinced he's still an NBA player.

Silly take. Plumlee signs a 1 year league min guy to a team that is desperate for center === equates to high demand for centers?

Tuner got underpaid based on most people's estimation. Capela signed for what most expected. Lopez signed for less than most here expected. Sharpe signed for less than most expected. Kornet overpaid a few million. Looney is really the only guy that was paid more than what was really expected.

Adams got extended before FA even started. Gafford got extended before F.A. even started. Ayton took a buyout because he could make it up in free agency. The Hawks gladly took on Porzingis. The Suns traded two firsts for Mark Williams despite him failing a physical a few months ago.

Lopez did not sign for less than people thought. He was 37 and borderline unplayable against the Pacers. Then you get into the six other centers who changed teams in the first two days of free agency in a summer where very little money was out there. The center position is in demand.

[gswhoops]

Centers are absolutely in demand and when the backups at one position are the first to go off the board and get overpaid, that's exactly what it means. Plumlee was signed on the second day of free agency and I'm not convinced he's still an NBA player.

Silly take. Plumlee signs a 1 year league min guy to a team that is desperate for center === equates to high demand for centers?

Tuner got underpaid based on most people's estimation. Capela signed for what most expected. Lopez signed for less than most here expected. Sharpe signed for less than most expected. Kornet overpaid a few million. Looney is really the only guy that was paid more than what was really expected.

Adams got extended before FA even started. Gafford got extended before F.A. even started. Ayton took a buyout because he could make it up in free agency. The Hawks gladly took on Porzingis. The Suns traded two firsts for Mark Williams despite him failing a physical a few months ago.

Lopez did not sign for less than people thought. He was 37 and borderline unplayable against the Pacers. Then you get into the six other centers who changed teams in the first two days of free agency in a summer where very little money was out there. The center position is in demand.

Capela got $7M a year to be a third string center.

[Texas Chuck]

The Doritos takes are something.....but ignoring them to talk with godaddycurse:

I'd have this group far less talented than the pre-Kawhi Raptors. Maybe these guys grow into that like Siakam/OG did, but there were more proven vets on that team.

But I do agree they are like Portland--a team ready built to add a superstar. The problem is getting a guy like Kawhi in the manner they did doesn't feel super repeatable so I wouldn't have that as my plan nor be happy that my team did.

[psman2]

Centers are absolutely in demand and when the backups at one position are the first to go off the board and get overpaid, that's exactly what it means. Plumlee was signed on the second day of free agency and I'm not convinced he's still an NBA player.

Silly take. Plumlee signs a 1 year league min guy to a team that is desperate for center === equates to high demand for centers?

Tuner got underpaid based on most people's estimation. Capela signed for what most expected. Lopez signed for less than most here expected. Sharpe signed for less than most expected. Kornet overpaid a few million. Looney is really the only guy that was paid more than what was really expected.

Adams got extended before FA even started. Gafford got extended before F.A. even started. Ayton took a buyout because he could make it up in free agency. The Hawks gladly took on Porzingis. The Suns traded two firsts for Mark Williams despite him failing a physical a few months ago.

Lopez did not sign for less than people thought. He was 37 and borderline unplayable against the Pacers. Then you get into the six other centers who changed teams in the first two days of free agency in a summer where very little money was out there. The center position is in demand.

Yes centers have a market, but I wouldn't call describe it as in demand, meaning they are going above value or estimated salary. Adams salary was in ball park of expectations. Ayton took a buyout because no one would trade for him, but that means high demand? Two gtd bad 1sts for Williams is like trading for pick 20 for MWill this year. That is not a huge return. Go read the Boston board and they thought they would get 1sts rounders back for KP and cap space. All they did was shed 2/3 of his salary. A lot of poster though Lopez could still get a big one year deal, 9m a year is not an overpayment.

This just looks like a typical year for center movement.

[tmorgan]

Yeah, what’s the experiment?

They are a solid team for more than solid money that has almost zero avenues to true contention, even in the East. They won’t suck and they won’t get past the second round (and are no guarantee to make the first round, altho top 10 and a playoff game seems extremely likely).

Is this just satisfaction with treadmilling? Masai is gone, so this isn’t irrational job-saving activity. It’s just contentment with 38 to 46 wins and a beating by teams with actual playoff rosters. I don’t understand.

we will know in 2 years if its treadmilling or not? The raptors pre kawhi managed to make it to ECF

I mean let's be real here, where do you have Toronto ranked in the East in terms of talent over the next 2 years? I'd have them no higher than 7th (Boston, NY, Cleveland, Indiana, Milwaukee, Orlando) and arguably as low as 10th (Philly, Miami, Atlanta).

Dang, man, you have us below Toronto, Miami and Philly? And retooling Boston and Indiana and whatever’s going on in Milwaukee?

I hope the whole league thinks Detroit was a fluke playoff team. Feeds the aura.

(I do think projecting Cleveland, New York, Orlando and perhaps Atlanta above the Pistons is entirely reasonable)

[gswhoops]

we will know in 2 years if its treadmilling or not? The raptors pre kawhi managed to make it to ECF

I mean let's be real here, where do you have Toronto ranked in the East in terms of talent over the next 2 years? I'd have them no higher than 7th (Boston, NY, Cleveland, Indiana, Milwaukee, Orlando) and arguably as low as 10th (Philly, Miami, Atlanta).

Dang, man, you have us below Toronto, Miami and Philly? And retooling Boston and Indiana and whatever’s going on in Milwaukee?

I hope the whole league thinks Detroit was a fluke playoff team. Feeds the aura.

(I do think projecting Cleveland, New York, Orlando and perhaps Atlanta above the Pistons is entirely reasonable)

Crap I knew I left someone out. I'd have Detroit in the first category as ahead of Toronto

[tmorgan]

I mean let's be real here, where do you have Toronto ranked in the East in terms of talent over the next 2 years? I'd have them no higher than 7th (Boston, NY, Cleveland, Indiana, Milwaukee, Orlando) and arguably as low as 10th (Philly, Miami, Atlanta).

Dang, man, you have us below Toronto, Miami and Philly? And retooling Boston and Indiana and whatever’s going on in Milwaukee?

I hope the whole league thinks Detroit was a fluke playoff team. Feeds the aura.

(I do think projecting Cleveland, New York, Orlando and perhaps Atlanta above the Pistons is entirely reasonable)

Crap I knew I left someone out. I'd have Detroit in the first category as ahead of Toronto

There are only three teams that are very likely non-play-in teams in the messy East next year:

Brooklyn — a bunch of young playmakers that can’t really shoot and have a ton to learn
Washington — a little further along than Brooklyn, but still developing talent for a while
Charlotte — potential to be the worst defensive team in a generation, but probably entertaining on offense

So two of the rest also miss the playoffs entirely. Not sure who.

[Godaddycurse]

Dang, man, you have us below Toronto, Miami and Philly? And retooling Boston and Indiana and whatever’s going on in Milwaukee?

I hope the whole league thinks Detroit was a fluke playoff team. Feeds the aura.

(I do think projecting Cleveland, New York, Orlando and perhaps Atlanta above the Pistons is entirely reasonable)

Crap I knew I left someone out. I'd have Detroit in the first category as ahead of Toronto

There are only three teams that are very likely non-play-in teams in the messy East next year:

Brooklyn — a bunch of young playmakers that can’t really shoot and have a ton to learn
Washington — a little further along than Brooklyn, but still developing talent for a while
Charlotte — potential to be the worst defensive team in a generation, but probably entertaining on offense

So two of the rest also miss the playoffs entirely. Not sure who.

Will depend on health at the end of the day. Philly if embiid is not back. Boston if Brown milks his rehab time and they do a 1 year reset. Toronto if Ingram flames out early. Ditto for Atlanta and JJ/KP

[tmorgan]

If forced to bet, I’d pick Philly and Boston, actually, assuming Boston has their own pick (just checked, they do).

Embiid is toast, and PG13 will probably whine incessantly if they start to suck. Can’t win with just guards.
Boston is known to game the system. Slow roll Brown, get White a fake injury, cash in and rebound hard next season. Simons can tank commander well.

Atlanta has enough depth now to deal with KP absences. I actually like them as a shot at a HCA team.