Jalen Duren in RFA: What Would Your Team Offer?

[gswhoops]

NGL I get Andre Drummond vibes from him. Super athlete, questionable motivation, great rim runner/lob finisher and rebounder but not as good a defender as you'd expect/hope given his size and athleticism and not a factor on offense outside of the paint.

Something a lot of people don't know about Andre Drummond is that, despite his size and athleticism, he was never a good finisher at the rim. If Duren can rebound AND finish, he'll already be a Drummond+.

Good context. I'm still not sure Drummond+ is a super valuable player in today's NBA, though - while vertical spacing is important, idk if a center who doesn't space the floor or anchor a defense is a high-priority get for a lot of teams. Gafford is a similar type player, a bit older and not as good a rebounder but in the same rough style, and he's a questionable value on an $18M/yr deal.

[jbk1234]

hes not the style center the hornets are looking for, and certainly not for a big offer. dont see them even making a bid.

The Hornets are the biggest threat here, or if Kessler gets a stupid offer, and the Jazz decide not to match, that's a possibility. If the Wizards decide to try to play two bigs as Sarr can shoot a bit, they'll make an offer. Depending on what happens with Reaves, the Lakers could also be a threat.

He should get $20M per. No more than $25M.

I get him not necessarily being a first choice, and while I think the Hornets FO is just fine with this being another rebuilding season, I suspect they'll pivot after the draft next summer. If it costs them nothing more than $20M in cap, and that appears to be the market rate for an average starting center, its a solid Plan B. Look at what Gafford just got as a good backup.

[tmorgan]

NGL I get Andre Drummond vibes from him. Super athlete, questionable motivation, great rim runner/lob finisher and rebounder but not as good a defender as you'd expect/hope given his size and athleticism and not a factor on offense outside of the paint.

I can give you the full scouting report here, having witnessed both at a young age in Detroit.

Athletically, Duren is a little bouncier with much better hands. He’s also significantly less wide, which is what made Drummond unique — he was a huge guy, big legs and stout top to bottom while still highly athletic. That’s what made Drummond a generational rebounder, while Duren is just very good. It’s only been a stat since 70-71, but did you know Drummond is the all-time NBA leader in total rebound percentage at 25.1%?

As a finisher, Duren is superior. He has good touch and plays with force. You’d get excited when Drummond went straight up and dunked on someone because it typically happened once a week, while Duren does it every game. Too many soft layups with Drummond. AD’s career high in dunks was 183 in his age 20 season. JD had 219 last year in far fewer minutes (2619 to 2034).

Drummond experimented with being a passing hub and ball handler but it was never impressive. Duren’s a better passer, a very nice one for your typical athletic big. Nothing special as of yet, though. Might be some potential there.

Neither has range, although Drummond’s taken a few more jumpers as a veteran. Average (not really a) shot distance is 3.4 to 3.2, so yeah, paint players only.

Defensively, Drummond was not good, but he was better than Duren is now. They share the same problems of defending stretch bigs and the perimeter in general, and not doing a good job of weak side help because of slow reads. Drummond was a better man defender because he was basically immovable with his tree trunk legs, but you could still beat him. This is Duren’s biggest issue — his effort and ability on defense are highly questionable.

So yeah, kinda similar, but not exactly. Drummond got a max second contract on a bad team in a somewhat different era, but it was almost immediately apparent it was a mistake. Duren won’t get that, but wants more than the market indicates he’s worth.

[nate33]

I think the Wizards should seriously consider offering him a big contract.

The guy is still only 21 years old and averaged 16 points, 14 boards and 4 assists per 36 on a .703 TS%. Yeah, I recognize that his offense is mostly limited to being a rim runner, but he is a high end rim runner and an elite rebounder. At at his young age, I expect his defense to continue to improve incrementally as he gains more experience.

The Wizards will have $100M in cap room and not much to spend it on. I'd offer Duren a contract starting at $35M and declining by 5% a year after that. So: $35M, 33.25M, $31.5M, $29.75M over the next 4 years. It's probably an overpay early on, but should grow into a fair value contract by Year 3. The idea is to keep his cap hit a little lower further in the future when the Wizards need to think about resigning their other young guys.

[oldncreaky]

NGL I get Andre Drummond vibes from him. Super athlete, questionable motivation, great rim runner/lob finisher and rebounder but not as good a defender as you'd expect/hope given his size and athleticism and not a factor on offense outside of the paint.

I can give you the full scouting report here, having witnessed both at a young age in Detroit.

Athletically, Duren is a little bouncier with much better hands. He’s also significantly less wide, which is what made Drummond unique — he was a huge guy, big legs and stout top to bottom while still highly athletic. That’s what made Drummond a generational rebounder, while Duren is just very good. It’s only been a stat since 70-71, but did you know Drummond is the all-time NBA leader in total rebound percentage at 25.1%?

As a finisher, Duren is superior. He has good touch and plays with force. You’d get excited when Drummond went straight up and dunked on someone because it typically happened once a week, while Duren does it every game. Too many soft layups with Drummond. AD’s career high in dunks was 183 in his age 20 season. JD had 219 last year in far fewer minutes (2619 to 2034).

Drummond experimented with being a passing hub and ball handler but it was never impressive. Duren’s a better passer, a very nice one for your typical athletic big. Nothing special as of yet, though. Might be some potential there.

Neither has range, although Drummond’s taken a few more jumpers as a veteran. Average (not really a) shot distance is 3.4 to 3.2, so yeah, paint players only.

Defensively, Drummond was not good, but he was better than Duren is now. They share the same problems of defending stretch bigs and the perimeter in general, and not doing a good job of weak side help because of slow reads. Drummond was a better man defender because he was basically immovable with his tree trunk legs, but you could still beat him. This is Duren’s biggest issue — his effort and ability on defense are highly questionable.

So yeah, kinda similar, but not exactly. Drummond got a max second contract on a bad team in a somewhat different era, but it was almost immediately apparent it was a mistake. Duren won’t get that, but wants more than the market indicates he’s worth.

Excellent scouting report.

The one note I'd add is that Jalen Duren has not shown me the foot speed and lateral agility necessary to defend the PnR, and in today's league (with it's heavy reliance on high PnRs) that is a killer issue for his D.

[Godaddycurse]

I think the Wizards should seriously consider offering him a big contract.

The guy is still only 21 years old and averaged 16 points, 14 boards and 4 assists per 36 on a .703 TS%. Yeah, I recognize that his offense is mostly limited to being a rim runner, but he is a high end rim runner and an elite rebounder. At at his young age, I expect his defense to continue to improve incrementally as he gains more experience.

The Wizards will have $100M in cap room and not much to spend it on. I'd offer Duren a contract starting at $35M and declining by 5% a year after that. So: $35M, 33.25M, $31.5M, $29.75M over the next 4 years. It's probably an overpay early on, but should grow into a fair value contract by Year 3. The idea is to keep his cap hit a little lower further in the future when the Wizards need to think about resigning their other young guys.

The interesting part for wizards is they have Mark Williams, Kessler and Duren to pick and choose who to throw an offer sheet at. I would imagine kessler is the safer option

[JRoy]

I think the Wizards should seriously consider offering him a big contract.

The guy is still only 21 years old and averaged 16 points, 14 boards and 4 assists per 36 on a .703 TS%. Yeah, I recognize that his offense is mostly limited to being a rim runner, but he is a high end rim runner and an elite rebounder. At at his young age, I expect his defense to continue to improve incrementally as he gains more experience.

The Wizards will have $100M in cap room and not much to spend it on. I'd offer Duren a contract starting at $35M and declining by 5% a year after that. So: $35M, 33.25M, $31.5M, $29.75M over the next 4 years. It's probably an overpay early on, but should grow into a fair value contract by Year 3. The idea is to keep his cap hit a little lower further in the future when the Wizards need to think about resigning their other young guys.

Seems like a solid choice for WAS. Would you run he and Frenchie together or split minutes at 5?

[SlimShady83]

Anyone NOT named Luka, plus FRP maybe a pick swap as well

[Snakebites]

I think the Wizards should seriously consider offering him a big contract.

The guy is still only 21 years old and averaged 16 points, 14 boards and 4 assists per 36 on a .703 TS%. Yeah, I recognize that his offense is mostly limited to being a rim runner, but he is a high end rim runner and an elite rebounder. At at his young age, I expect his defense to continue to improve incrementally as he gains more experience.

The Wizards will have $100M in cap room and not much to spend it on. I'd offer Duren a contract starting at $35M and declining by 5% a year after that. So: $35M, 33.25M, $31.5M, $29.75M over the next 4 years. It's probably an overpay early on, but should grow into a fair value contract by Year 3. The idea is to keep his cap hit a little lower further in the future when the Wizards need to think about resigning their other young guys.

Man, as a Piston fan I'd be pretty mad if we ended up keeping Duren at that price point.

He's a bad contract at that figure. I'd imagine if the Wizards actually offer him that he's all theirs.

[tmorgan]

I think the Wizards should seriously consider offering him a big contract.

The guy is still only 21 years old and averaged 16 points, 14 boards and 4 assists per 36 on a .703 TS%. Yeah, I recognize that his offense is mostly limited to being a rim runner, but he is a high end rim runner and an elite rebounder. At at his young age, I expect his defense to continue to improve incrementally as he gains more experience.

The Wizards will have $100M in cap room and not much to spend it on. I'd offer Duren a contract starting at $35M and declining by 5% a year after that. So: $35M, 33.25M, $31.5M, $29.75M over the next 4 years. It's probably an overpay early on, but should grow into a fair value contract by Year 3. The idea is to keep his cap hit a little lower further in the future when the Wizards need to think about resigning their other young guys.

And this is the risky part for Detroit. He’s definitely not worth that money in his current form, but all it takes is one team. The fit with Sarr does indeed make sense. Detroit doesn’t have a Sarr/Myles Turner type (stretchy type rim protector that needs help with rebounding) that Duren pairs with.

We’ll see what happens. That contract offer might scare Detroit off.

[tmorgan]

Anyone NOT named Luka, plus FRP maybe a pick swap as well

You aren’t gonna like Ayton, but I doubt you’d like Duren either. Would be a great lob catcher for Luka, but the Lakers need a real defensive anchor badly. That’s not JD. Go after Kessler instead.

[SlimShady83]

Anyone NOT named Luka, plus FRP maybe a pick swap as well

You aren’t gonna like Ayton, but I doubt you’d like Duren either. Would be a great lob catcher from Luka, but the Lakers need a real defensive anchor badly. That’s not JD. Go after Kessler instead.

If you know my posts, you'd know I want Kessler, that said, Duren is what 21? Can't go wrong?

[nate33]

I think the Wizards should seriously consider offering him a big contract.

The guy is still only 21 years old and averaged 16 points, 14 boards and 4 assists per 36 on a .703 TS%. Yeah, I recognize that his offense is mostly limited to being a rim runner, but he is a high end rim runner and an elite rebounder. At at his young age, I expect his defense to continue to improve incrementally as he gains more experience.

The Wizards will have $100M in cap room and not much to spend it on. I'd offer Duren a contract starting at $35M and declining by 5% a year after that. So: $35M, 33.25M, $31.5M, $29.75M over the next 4 years. It's probably an overpay early on, but should grow into a fair value contract by Year 3. The idea is to keep his cap hit a little lower further in the future when the Wizards need to think about resigning their other young guys.

Seems like a solid choice for WAS. Would you run he and Frenchie together or split minutes at 5?

I'd platoon them for the most part, with them overlapping maybe 12 minutes a game. Each guy could play 30 minutes or so.

[nate33]

I think the Wizards should seriously consider offering him a big contract.

The guy is still only 21 years old and averaged 16 points, 14 boards and 4 assists per 36 on a .703 TS%. Yeah, I recognize that his offense is mostly limited to being a rim runner, but he is a high end rim runner and an elite rebounder. At at his young age, I expect his defense to continue to improve incrementally as he gains more experience.

The Wizards will have $100M in cap room and not much to spend it on. I'd offer Duren a contract starting at $35M and declining by 5% a year after that. So: $35M, 33.25M, $31.5M, $29.75M over the next 4 years. It's probably an overpay early on, but should grow into a fair value contract by Year 3. The idea is to keep his cap hit a little lower further in the future when the Wizards need to think about resigning their other young guys.

The interesting part for wizards is they have Mark Williams, Kessler and Duren to pick and choose who to throw an offer sheet at. I would imagine kessler is the safer option

Yeah. I'd lean toward Kessler myself, but Washington's MO seems to be to go for the upside gamble. Duren, at just 21 years old, may still have a lot of room to grow.

[HornetJail]

Charlotte should be interested in anybody competent. I'd go north of the MLE, but not by a huge amount, as I don't think Duren is particularly special. somewhere in the $16-19M range on a short deal?

[ReggiesKnicks]

Charlotte should be interested in anybody competent. I'd go north of the MLE, but not by a huge amount, as I don't think Duren is particularly special. somewhere in the $16-19M range on a short deal?

This is pretty wild considering what the market value of Centers is and given the age/production of Duren.

[tmorgan]

Charlotte should be interested in anybody competent. I'd go north of the MLE, but not by a huge amount, as I don't think Duren is particularly special. somewhere in the $16-19M range on a short deal?

This is pretty wild considering what the market value of Centers is and given the age/production of Duren.

Doesn’t matter anyway. If negotiations sour and his agent goes looking for offers and the best Duren can get is under 20, the Pistons will match. It’s not that we don’t want the player, we just don’t want an instantly bad contract. That monstrosity that Nate mentions earlier in this thread would cause all kinds of problems for Detroit, because there’s also Ivey (also next summer), Ausar (one year later) and Holland (another year later) to worry about.

20 isn’t a scary number. 25 starts to get scary. 30 is ridiculous.

[nate33]

Charlotte should be interested in anybody competent. I'd go north of the MLE, but not by a huge amount, as I don't think Duren is particularly special. somewhere in the $16-19M range on a short deal?

This is pretty wild considering what the market value of Centers is and given the age/production of Duren.

Doesn’t matter anyway. If negotiations sour and his agent goes looking for offers and the best Duren can get is under 20, the Pistons will match. It’s not that we don’t want the player, we just don’t want an instantly bad contract. That monstrosity that Nate mentions earlier in this thread would cause all kinds of problems for Detroit, because there’s also Ivey (also next summer), Ausar (one year later) and Holland (another year later) to worry about.

20 isn’t a scary number. 25 starts to get scary. 30 is ridiculous.

Yeah, $30M is definitely an overpay, but that's usually what it takes to poach a restricted free agent. As I said, I'd try to make it a declining contract so that the future years didn't seem like such an overpay.

[tmorgan]

This is pretty wild considering what the market value of Centers is and given the age/production of Duren.

Doesn’t matter anyway. If negotiations sour and his agent goes looking for offers and the best Duren can get is under 20, the Pistons will match. It’s not that we don’t want the player, we just don’t want an instantly bad contract. That monstrosity that Nate mentions earlier in this thread would cause all kinds of problems for Detroit, because there’s also Ivey (also next summer), Ausar (one year later) and Holland (another year later) to worry about.

20 isn’t a scary number. 25 starts to get scary. 30 is ridiculous.

Yeah, $30M is definitely an overpay, but that's usually what it takes to poach a restricted free agent. As I said, I'd try to make it a declining contract so that the future years didn't seem like such an overpay.

Oh, I get that. Duren doesn’t want to leave. Cade spoon feeds him oops every game and he has Stew for the tougher defensive assignments.

But if his choice is say 4/90 from Detroit or 4/130 from Washington…. yeah, you couldn’t blame the guy.

[zeebneeb]

I differ from a bunch of other Piston fans in my opinion of Duren. He is an elite rum runner, with massive size. 250+ amazing bounce, with the ability to catch damn near anything. For a player like Cade, he is the cream of the crop, and makes Cade deadly in the P&R. One error, and Duren is destroying a lob. Very few guys his physical size can do what he does.

He is also an elite rebounder, with amazing hands. Very rarely does a pass bounce off his fingers. His passing is also coming along nicely as well. Duren is also starting to operate on the fast break, after he gets a rebound, exploiting his agility, and creation, something with is tantalizing on the FB, which the Pistons are great at.

His defense has grown since his rookie year, but it absolutely needs work, not going to argue that point. With that said, he has room to grow, as he is barely 22 when the season starts. His shot-blocking has gotten better, as has his man defense. Where he suffers, is out on the perimeter.

I'm willing to go up to 30 per. Cade having him as a weapon is unreal, and, if reports are true, he's going to start adding a 15 footer to his game, for a pick-and-pop to add to the mix.