Atlanta - Milwaukee - Portland

[tester551]

I personally think Giannis has very little real leverage and at the end of the day he’ll go wherever sends the best package.

That is a pretty wild take, and basically disregards everythimg we know about superstar trades when the player is a soon to be free agent.

Give some examples of when this has happened in the last 3-4 years. Your belief of this narrative doesn't match factual data.

Dame -> Nope (Miami sent to MIL)
Butler -> Nope (Phoenix sent to GSW)
Durant -> Not public enough to judge. Going to Houston is equivalent to going to ATL at this point (team on the upswing with young talent). It's definitely not NY or LA.
Kawhi -> Nope (LA sent to TOR)
Ingram -> Nope (sent to TOR)
Luka -> Nope -> it was a surprise to him that he was traded... wanted to stay in DAL.

[One_and_Done]

I personally think Giannis has very little real leverage and at the end of the day he’ll go wherever sends the best package.

That is a pretty wild take, and basically disregards everythimg we know about superstar trades when the player is a soon to be free agent.

Give some examples of when this has happened in the last 3-4 years. Your belief of this narrative doesn't match factual data.

Dame -> Nope (Miami sent to MIL)
Butler -> Nope (Phoenix sent to GSW)
Durant -> Not public enough to judge. Going to Houston is equivalent to going to ATL at this point (team on the upswing with young talent). It's definitely not NY or LA.
Kawhi -> Nope (LA sent to TOR)
Ingram -> Nope (sent to TOR)
Luka -> Nope -> it was a surprise to him that he was traded... wanted to stay in DAL.

I have discussed each of these before.

Dame was on a long term contract with no leverage.

Ingram isn't a star, he was moved for very little because his own team didn't want to pay him (and it took forever to trade him because other teams didn't value him either).

Luka never got a chance to demand a trade, and they traded him to a team who knew they could resign him because they are one of those premier markets.

Butler wanted the Suns because they'd max him, and a deal was agreed, but Beal indicated he'd veto it which made a deal functionally impossible under the rules. Jimmy had to then 'settle' for the 3rd biggest market after NY/LA.

Kawhi forced his value so low, and the Lakers were so ineptly run, that a rental offer from Toronto was able to beat the lowball LA offer. After being sent somewhere he didn't want to be, he immediately left, even though they had just won a title. That's the lesson here. Is Atlanta happy for Giannis to leave in free agency? If that's his intention they're only offering a bargain bin offer, especially because unlike Toronto they are not ready to win a title.

Houston is nothing like Atlanta. KD had a list of a handful of teams, and Houston was on it. Houston is a place a bunch of stars have wanted to play at in recent years. The club has alot of prestige and recent success, the weather is warm, there's no state income tax, and it's the most marketable club in China, which certainly helps. They also won 52 games without KD. Atlanta is barely above 500 in a weak East, and has none of those factors.

None of what you just said advances your argument. You didn't even know the teams on KDs list, which a quick google search would have revealed. It was also much discussed on these boards, it was the Heat, Spurs, or Rockets. GSW and Brooklyn were out for obvious reasons.

[mlloyd10]

Dont worry, he wont sign there

[bkohler]

That is a pretty wild take, and basically disregards everythimg we know about superstar trades when the player is a soon to be free agent.

Give some examples of when this has happened in the last 3-4 years. Your belief of this narrative doesn't match factual data.

Dame -> Nope (Miami sent to MIL)
Butler -> Nope (Phoenix sent to GSW)
Durant -> Not public enough to judge. Going to Houston is equivalent to going to ATL at this point (team on the upswing with young talent). It's definitely not NY or LA.
Kawhi -> Nope (LA sent to TOR)
Ingram -> Nope (sent to TOR)
Luka -> Nope -> it was a surprise to him that he was traded... wanted to stay in DAL.

I have discussed each of these before.

Dame was on a long term contract with no leverage.

Ingram isn't a star, he was moved for very little because his own team didn't want to pay him (and it took forever to trade him because other teams didn't value him either).

Luka never got a chance to demand a trade, and they traded him to a team who knew they could resign him because they are one of those premier markets.

Butler wanted the Suns because they'd max him, and a deal was agreed, but Beal indicated he'd veto it which made a deal functionally impossible under the rules. Jimmy had to then 'settle' for the 3rd biggest market after NY/LA.

Kawhi forced his value so low, and the Lakers were so ineptly run, that a rental offer from Toronto was able to beat the lowball LA offer. After being sent somewhere he didn't want to be, he immediately left, even though they had just won a title. That's the lesson here. Is Atlanta happy for Giannis to leave in free agency? If that's his intention they're only offering a bargain bin offer, especially because unlike Toronto they are not ready to win a title.

Houston is nothing like Atlanta. KD had a list of a handful of teams, and Houston was on it. Houston is a place a bunch of stars have wanted to play at in recent years. The club has alot of prestige and recent success, the weather is warm, there's no state income tax, and it's the most marketable club in China, which certainly helps. They also won 52 games without KD. Atlanta is barely above 500 in a weak East, and has none of those factors.

None of what you just said advances your argument. You didn't even know the teams on KDs list, which a quick google search would have revealed. It was also much discussed on these boards, it was the Heat, Spurs, or Rockets. GSW and Brooklyn were out for obvious reasons.

I think a fair question is who is the last superstar to force themselves to the exact team they want to go to? Anthony Davis a decade ago? If Giannis was 24 I get the concern but color me very shocked if he turns down 63M at age 33.

[One_and_Done]

Give some examples of when this has happened in the last 3-4 years. Your belief of this narrative doesn't match factual data.

Dame -> Nope (Miami sent to MIL)
Butler -> Nope (Phoenix sent to GSW)
Durant -> Not public enough to judge. Going to Houston is equivalent to going to ATL at this point (team on the upswing with young talent). It's definitely not NY or LA.
Kawhi -> Nope (LA sent to TOR)
Ingram -> Nope (sent to TOR)
Luka -> Nope -> it was a surprise to him that he was traded... wanted to stay in DAL.

I have discussed each of these before.

Dame was on a long term contract with no leverage.

Ingram isn't a star, he was moved for very little because his own team didn't want to pay him (and it took forever to trade him because other teams didn't value him either).

Luka never got a chance to demand a trade, and they traded him to a team who knew they could resign him because they are one of those premier markets.

Butler wanted the Suns because they'd max him, and a deal was agreed, but Beal indicated he'd veto it which made a deal functionally impossible under the rules. Jimmy had to then 'settle' for the 3rd biggest market after NY/LA.

Kawhi forced his value so low, and the Lakers were so ineptly run, that a rental offer from Toronto was able to beat the lowball LA offer. After being sent somewhere he didn't want to be, he immediately left, even though they had just won a title. That's the lesson here. Is Atlanta happy for Giannis to leave in free agency? If that's his intention they're only offering a bargain bin offer, especially because unlike Toronto they are not ready to win a title.

Houston is nothing like Atlanta. KD had a list of a handful of teams, and Houston was on it. Houston is a place a bunch of stars have wanted to play at in recent years. The club has alot of prestige and recent success, the weather is warm, there's no state income tax, and it's the most marketable club in China, which certainly helps. They also won 52 games without KD. Atlanta is barely above 500 in a weak East, and has none of those factors.

None of what you just said advances your argument. You didn't even know the teams on KDs list, which a quick google search would have revealed. It was also much discussed on these boards, it was the Heat, Spurs, or Rockets. GSW and Brooklyn were out for obvious reasons.

I think a fair question is who is the last superstar to force themselves to the exact team they want to go to? Anthony Davis a decade ago? If Giannis was 24 I get the concern but color me very shocked if he turns down 63M at age 33.

Fox forced his way to the Spurs just last season. KD forced his way to one of his 3 teams of choice last offsesson. Jimmy Butler had all but forced his way to Phoenix last year, when Beal screwed it up with his veto. He instead got to go to a different team he wanted.

[giannis and 1]

This deal is predicated on the following asumptions:

- Atlanta seems like a good fit for Giannis and with them having the Bucks picks the next two drafts.

- If the Bucks trade Giannis they will want to enter into a deep rebuild and Portland having control over their picks from 28 - 30 is a clear limitation.

- I am assuming that the Bucks would not want Trae Young as the centerpiece of a trade

note that this trade miraculously works in the Spotrac trade machine despite the poison pill status on both Johnson and Camara.

Atlanta trades:

Jalen Johnson
Kristaps Porzingis
2026 1st - more favorable of MIL or NOP
2027 1st - least favorable of MIL or NOP

Atlanta receives:

Giannis
Robert Williams III

The Hawks get an all-NBA player in his prime who fits the remaining roster perfectly. This team becomes an instant contender.

Portland trades:

Toumani Camara
Matisse Thybulle
Robert Williams III
2028 pick swap with Milwaukee cancelled
2029 1st from Portland - least favorable of Boston, Milwaukee and Portland
2030 pick swap with Milwaukee cancelled

Portland receives:

Jalen Johnson

Portland trades an all-NBA defender for a more well-rounded player in Jalen Johnson who gives the Blazer a 2nd emerging all-star to pair with Deni Avdija as triple threat forwards who are also plus defenders.

Milwaukee trades:

Giannis

Milwaukee receives:

Toumani Camara
Kristaps Porzingis - ending contract
Matisse Thybulle - ending contract
2026 1st - more favorable of MIL or NOP
2027 1st - least favorable of MIL or NOP
2028 pick swap rights to Portland cancelled
2029 1st from Portland - least favorable of Boston, Milwaukee and Portland
2030 pick swap rights to Portland cancelled

The Bucks get full control over all their picks going forward and can do a thorough rebuild. They also get one of the best defenders in the NBA in Toumani Camara who is on a very reasonable contract. Porzingis has an ending contract and could probably be flipped for further assets. Note that the Bucks need cut two players. Conviently, with nepotism no longer a factor, the two obviously candidates are Giannis' brothers.

Hahahahahaha. Bucks decline.

[Ball4life32]

Nm

[daoneandonly]

Zero reason for Portland to be here, they are just stealing value and barely adding any

[penbeast0]

This fails because Giannis isn't going to agree to play for Atlanta. That's a pretty essential requirement given his leverage.

You've repeated this ad naseum without, to my knowledge, providing a shread of evidence or having made a compelling argument.

Nobody can provide rock solid evidence, because Giannis is hardly going to do an interview saying "Portland/Atlanta is a backwater city, and I won't play there", but common sense makes it pretty clear he won't go there for the reasons I've explained, just like no other star has.

What possible reason is there to think he'd want to go there?

Atlanta is one of the favorite cities of NBA players to go to. For the NBA it would be a second tier city like Houston, behind the big ones of NY, LA, and maybe Miami for the South Beach lifestyle. The question is more whether they trust the Hawks to be a quality team to play for than the city.

And, players (and even one coach) have said publicly they aren't interested in going to Salt Lake City so they will come out and say this at times.

[penbeast0]

...
Butler wanted the Suns because they'd max him, and a deal was agreed, but Beal indicated he'd veto it which made a deal functionally impossible under the rules. Jimmy had to then 'settle' for the 3rd biggest market after NY/LA....

Just occasionally take 30 seconds and look on the internet before saying things like they were facts.

Getty Research -- Ranking the largest markets in the NBA.
(Team -- TV Market Size -- Metro Population)

1. New York Knicks / Brooklyn Nets 7.453M 19,216,182
2. LA Lakers / LA Clippers 5.735M 13,214,799
3. Chicago Bulls 3.472M 9,458,539

4. Philadelphia 76ers 2.997M 6,102,434
5. Dallas Mavericks 2.963M 7,573,136
6. Toronto Raptors – 5,928,040
7. Golden State Warriors 2.653M 4,731,803

8. Atlanta Hawks 2.649M 6,020,364
9. Houston Rockets 2.570M 7,066,141
10. Washington Wizards 2.566M 6,280,487
11. Boston Celtics 2.490M 4,873,019
12. Phoenix Suns 2.158M 4,948,203

[brackdan70]

Portland stealing value here. If Atlanta is willing to give up Johnson then the Bucks want him rather Camera and picks.

[machu46]

Atlanta is actually a really beautiful city.. a major market with an international airport.. shrugs.

But Portland gets cut out here.

Two drafts is enough to build a young core once you factor in Jalen Johnson..

I just think Atlanta is going to try and keep Jalen. Their offer should be the Mil picks.. Risacher, Asa and/or future picks.. and then Trae. Trae to Mil or Trae to a third team for another asset. I think given the value of that 2026 first, Jalen isn’t actually needed.. And I’d rather pair Jalen/Giannis than Giannis/Trae when you factor in Jalen’s cheap contract making it possible to avoid the tax and contend..

I visit all the time...personally not my kind of city but it certainly is not backwater lol. It's a perfectly fine city and a great fit for a lot of folks. Think most would probably agree it's an upgrade from Milwaukee (though I probably would not personally).

Anywho, on the actual trade, I think just staying the course is a perfectly fine decision if you're Atlanta though I think making this kind of trade is worth considering. May still be workable without including Jalen, but I would probably rather Milwaukee target Jalen than the draft pick. And agree with some of the other comments that Milwaukee would just cut Portland out of this and keep Jalen. Pick swaps are nice and all but they're nowhere near worth Jalen.

[jayjaysee]

Is anyone beating..

Trae, Risacher, Asa, 2026 NOP/Mil, 2027 NOP/Mil?

If we say Trae can only return a first? Or if we say Milwaukee tells Trae they’ll give him his full max if he sticks through the tank.. Trae/Turner as the vets around the two 2026 lottery picks and Rollins/Risacher/Asa?

No reason to include Jalen imo

[Ball4life32]

Is anyone beating..

Trae, Risacher, Asa, 2026 NOP/Mil, 2027 NOP/Mil?

If we say Trae can only return a first? Or if we say Milwaukee tells Trae they’ll give him his full max if he sticks through the tank.. Trae/Turner as the vets around the two 2026 lottery picks and Rollins/Risacher/Asa?

No reason to include Jalen imo

Problem is you’re trading your starting PG and SF for another PF. Jalen already plays 99% of his mins at PF. (He’s not a SF like a lot of ppl think) I just don’t think they go all in on another PF as good as Giannis is.

[mlloyd10]

Is anyone beating..

Trae, Risacher, Asa, 2026 NOP/Mil, 2027 NOP/Mil?

If we say Trae can only return a first? Or if we say Milwaukee tells Trae they’ll give him his full max if he sticks through the tank.. Trae/Turner as the vets around the two 2026 lottery picks and Rollins/Risacher/Asa?

No reason to include Jalen imo

If we could flip Trae to another team, that would even be better

You could insert KP instead of Trae and have them include more picks

[MartyConlonOnTheRun]

Milwaukee trades:

Giannis

Milwaukee receives:

Toumani Camara
Kristaps Porzingis - ending contract
Matisse Thybulle - ending contract
2026 1st - more favorable of MIL or NOP
2027 1st - least favorable of MIL or NOP
2028 pick swap rights to Portland cancelled
2029 1st from Portland - least favorable of Boston, Milwaukee and Portland
2030 pick swap rights to Portland cancelled

Hahahahahaha. Bucks decline.

Honestly don't think it is horrible value. We can fully tank this year with 2 Top 10 picks and a punchers chance at one of the big 3. We also can tank in 2028 if we are good with a multi-year rebuild. We would probably also trade Turner and Porter in this scenario. Zinger will be flipped as well. You are basically getting 4 picks (1 high-end, 1 medium round, 1 late, and another late from the Zinger trade), 2 swaps and a decent prospect. Not great value but it is the start of a rebuild/right sizing the salary.

That said, Portland is stealing a lot of value from mostly ATL but also MKE. No reason to not just Portland out and walk away w/JJ, 2026 and 2027 (throw in Turner if needed).

[jayjaysee]

Is anyone beating..

Trae, Risacher, Asa, 2026 NOP/Mil, 2027 NOP/Mil?

If we say Trae can only return a first? Or if we say Milwaukee tells Trae they’ll give him his full max if he sticks through the tank.. Trae/Turner as the vets around the two 2026 lottery picks and Rollins/Risacher/Asa?

No reason to include Jalen imo

If we could flip Trae to another team, that would even be better

You could insert KP instead of Trae and have them include more picks

I just think Atlanta isn’t paying all three of Giannis, Jalen and Trae.. KP would likely be flipped for help at guard in my fake trade world.

[brackdan70]

Is anyone beating..

Trae, Risacher, Asa, 2026 NOP/Mil, 2027 NOP/Mil?

If we say Trae can only return a first? Or if we say Milwaukee tells Trae they’ll give him his full max if he sticks through the tank.. Trae/Turner as the vets around the two 2026 lottery picks and Rollins/Risacher/Asa?

No reason to include Jalen imo

It’s a good package as long as the Bucks want Trae, but I doubt they would. Too small, overpaid, one way player etc.

[bkohler]

I have discussed each of these before.

Dame was on a long term contract with no leverage.

Ingram isn't a star, he was moved for very little because his own team didn't want to pay him (and it took forever to trade him because other teams didn't value him either).

Luka never got a chance to demand a trade, and they traded him to a team who knew they could resign him because they are one of those premier markets.

Butler wanted the Suns because they'd max him, and a deal was agreed, but Beal indicated he'd veto it which made a deal functionally impossible under the rules. Jimmy had to then 'settle' for the 3rd biggest market after NY/LA.

Kawhi forced his value so low, and the Lakers were so ineptly run, that a rental offer from Toronto was able to beat the lowball LA offer. After being sent somewhere he didn't want to be, he immediately left, even though they had just won a title. That's the lesson here. Is Atlanta happy for Giannis to leave in free agency? If that's his intention they're only offering a bargain bin offer, especially because unlike Toronto they are not ready to win a title.

Houston is nothing like Atlanta. KD had a list of a handful of teams, and Houston was on it. Houston is a place a bunch of stars have wanted to play at in recent years. The club has alot of prestige and recent success, the weather is warm, there's no state income tax, and it's the most marketable club in China, which certainly helps. They also won 52 games without KD. Atlanta is barely above 500 in a weak East, and has none of those factors.

None of what you just said advances your argument. You didn't even know the teams on KDs list, which a quick google search would have revealed. It was also much discussed on these boards, it was the Heat, Spurs, or Rockets. GSW and Brooklyn were out for obvious reasons.

I think a fair question is who is the last superstar to force themselves to the exact team they want to go to? Anthony Davis a decade ago? If Giannis was 24 I get the concern but color me very shocked if he turns down 63M at age 33.

Fox forced his way to the Spurs just last season. KD forced his way to one of his 3 teams of choice last offsesson. Jimmy Butler had all but forced his way to Phoenix last year, when Beal screwed it up with his veto. He instead got to go to a different team he wanted.

Fox is a good example, I stand corrected on that one. However, I think each examples of these fail to reach the superstar level that make people willing to take a gamble on them regardless.

[jayjaysee]

Is anyone beating..

Trae, Risacher, Asa, 2026 NOP/Mil, 2027 NOP/Mil?

If we say Trae can only return a first? Or if we say Milwaukee tells Trae they’ll give him his full max if he sticks through the tank.. Trae/Turner as the vets around the two 2026 lottery picks and Rollins/Risacher/Asa?

No reason to include Jalen imo

It’s a good package as long as the Bucks want Trae, but I doubt they would. Too small, overpaid, one way player etc.

I do share your feelings on Trae so hard to defend him, but also think he could be flipped for a first from somewhere.

Or you look at the team that doesn’t own their own draft pick for 4 drafts and think there’s worse things than watching Trae push your youth to the play-in.. If you do draft well, you can always trade Trae as a neutral-ish asset in a year or two..