Random Rumors and Trade Board General Thoughts Thread

[Godaddycurse]

Brad Townsend (local Mavs guy of eh quality) just put out a piece saying Donnie Nelson has made it clear around the league that everyone but Luka/KP is available, that Dallas wants to win right now, and is willing to eat money to get talent. Also said Dallas wants to move into the lottery--which seems odd in light of the other stuff.

No idea what stock to put into that, but just sharing it here. It definitely fits with how they used to operate when Dirk was in his prime, but...

Tobias Harris? get 21 from philly and package with 18 to move into late lotto?

he specifically mentioned Tobias by name, but I'm not crazy about that. Guessing it would be THJ/Wright as the matching?

or maybe package some of the role players on good contract w/ 18 for Hayward/14?

[shrink]

What's the latest talk on #1? Who are they taking if they keep the pick?

There is still no word locally. Rosas is holding his cards very close to his chest. I believe him when he says he will choose the very best player regardless of fit, so Wiseman and Ball are very possible. There are rumors that several teams have asked about the #1 pick, mostly non-lotto teams, but there haven’t been any offers that have been particularly appealing. I don’t think he particularly wants to trade down, but he is open to offers. I suspect that Rosas wants to see pre-draft workouts.

I am going to look into this deeply over the next 36 hours, and if I find out anything, I’ll let you know.

So the word locally is that MIN has been contacted by many teams about the #1 pick, but there hasn’t been a strong enough offer for them to consider skipping a trade and simply drafting the best available player. MIN doesn’t think they’ve seen teams’ best offer yet, and expect real offers will begin to surface in November, as we get closer to the draft. They were scheduled to meet with Ball on Monday and Edwards on Tuesday, and of course, they would like the honor of being selected first.

[NYG]

What's the latest talk on #1? Who are they taking if they keep the pick?

There is still no word locally. Rosas is holding his cards very close to his chest. I believe him when he says he will choose the very best player regardless of fit, so Wiseman and Ball are very possible. There are rumors that several teams have asked about the #1 pick, mostly non-lotto teams, but there haven’t been any offers that have been particularly appealing. I don’t think he particularly wants to trade down, but he is open to offers. I suspect that Rosas wants to see pre-draft workouts.

I am going to look into this deeply over the next 36 hours, and if I find out anything, I’ll let you know.

So the word locally is that MIN has been contacted by many teams about the #1 pick, but there hasn’t been a strong enough offer for them to consider skipping a trade and simply drafting the best available player. MIN doesn’t think they’ve seen teams’ best offer yet, and expect real offers will begin to surface in November, as we get closer to the draft. They were scheduled to meet with Ball on Monday and Edwards on Tuesday, and of course, they would like the honor of being selected first.

Good stuff

Nothing on Wiseman? Can him and Towns co-exist?

[shrink]

There is still no word locally. Rosas is holding his cards very close to his chest. I believe him when he says he will choose the very best player regardless of fit, so Wiseman and Ball are very possible. There are rumors that several teams have asked about the #1 pick, mostly non-lotto teams, but there haven’t been any offers that have been particularly appealing. I don’t think he particularly wants to trade down, but he is open to offers. I suspect that Rosas wants to see pre-draft workouts.

I am going to look into this deeply over the next 36 hours, and if I find out anything, I’ll let you know.

So the word locally is that MIN has been contacted by many teams about the #1 pick, but there hasn’t been a strong enough offer for them to consider skipping a trade and simply drafting the best available player. MIN doesn’t think they’ve seen teams’ best offer yet, and expect real offers will begin to surface in November, as we get closer to the draft. They were scheduled to meet with Ball on Monday and Edwards on Tuesday, and of course, they would like the honor of being selected first.

Good stuff

Nothing on Wiseman? Can him and Towns co-exist?

I haven’t come across anything recent. Rosas was very clear (?) back when they won the lottery that they would not dismiss drafting any player, regardless of fit, if they thought that player was the best choice. I think this was an obvious reference to Wiseman. Whether he was just blowing smoke to prop up interest and try to increase his leverage - I don’t know. This is what a good GM should say, whether he means it or not.

[Texas Chuck]

Standing offer if Dallas is really planning on adding salary and not saving 21 cap space:

Wright/Jackson for Bledsoe as the 3rd team in. Bucks obviously are going to want to upgrade their roster and Bledsoe is a logical piece as part of any major trade because of his salary. Rather than argue about if he is negative or not, this allows the team dealing with the Bucks to take back less future money and Dallas gets a better defensive guard.

Not including any value from Dallas, not asking for any value from the 3rd team for taking on salary. Just trying to increase value to both Dallas and the 3rd team by saving them cap and giving Dallas a more useful player.

Obviously this is dependent on Dallas adding significant 21 cap hits already and planning on either forgoing Giannis or hoping to use KP as the tool to get him--a consolation prize for the Bucks of sorts.

[NYG]

Which teams could take a chance on Blake Griffin?

[zimpy27]

Standing offer if Dallas is really planning on adding salary and not saving 21 cap space:

Wright/Jackson for Bledsoe as the 3rd team in. Bucks obviously are going to want to upgrade their roster and Bledsoe is a logical piece as part of any major trade because of his salary. Rather than argue about if he is negative or not, this allows the team dealing with the Bucks to take back less future money and Dallas gets a better defensive guard.

Not including any value from Dallas, not asking for any value from the 3rd team for taking on salary. Just trying to increase value to both Dallas and the 3rd team by saving them cap and giving Dallas a more useful player.

Obviously this is dependent on Dallas adding significant 21 cap hits already and planning on either forgoing Giannis or hoping to use KP as the tool to get him--a consolation prize for the Bucks of sorts.

I don't see Dallas having a shot at Giannis but I do think they have a shot at other free agents. Which free agents in 20 or 21 are you interested outside of Giannis?

[zimpy27]

Which teams could take a chance on Blake Griffin?

Houston would but you'd need to add more and take back Westbrook

[Texas Chuck]

Standing offer if Dallas is really planning on adding salary and not saving 21 cap space:

Wright/Jackson for Bledsoe as the 3rd team in. Bucks obviously are going to want to upgrade their roster and Bledsoe is a logical piece as part of any major trade because of his salary. Rather than argue about if he is negative or not, this allows the team dealing with the Bucks to take back less future money and Dallas gets a better defensive guard.

Not including any value from Dallas, not asking for any value from the 3rd team for taking on salary. Just trying to increase value to both Dallas and the 3rd team by saving them cap and giving Dallas a more useful player.

Obviously this is dependent on Dallas adding significant 21 cap hits already and planning on either forgoing Giannis or hoping to use KP as the tool to get him--a consolation prize for the Bucks of sorts.

I don't see Dallas having a shot at Giannis but I do think they have a shot at other free agents. Which free agents in 20 or 21 are you interested outside of Giannis?

Several. But Giannis is the only guy I'd hold space for.

[shrink]

So the word locally is that MIN has been contacted by many teams about the #1 pick, but there hasn’t been a strong enough offer for them to consider skipping a trade and simply drafting the best available player. MIN doesn’t think they’ve seen teams’ best offer yet, and expect real offers will begin to surface in November, as we get closer to the draft. They were scheduled to meet with Ball on Monday and Edwards on Tuesday, and of course, they would like the honor of being selected first.

Good stuff

Nothing on Wiseman? Can him and Towns co-exist?

I haven’t come across anything recent. Rosas was very clear (?) back when they won the lottery that they would not dismiss drafting any player, regardless of fit, if they thought that player was the best choice. I think this was an obvious reference to Wiseman. Whether he was just blowing smoke to prop up interest and try to increase his leverage - I don’t know. This is what a good GM should say, whether he means it or not.

Ok, I’m fully up to date on the local info, and even exchanged a few emails with media members who may have actual connections. And my results? It’s “wait and see.”

The NBA League Office has finally decided how in-person workouts and interview are going to work, and they don’t like it. There are multiple hoops for the teams to jump through (like teams must go to the prospects, 1-on-0 drills, anyone meeting with a prospect must test negative for Covid three times). In-person workouts and interviews will be huge this year, with so little data from the last year. MIN just started meeting prospects this week.

Right now, no one is off the table. In fact, I heard that one person in the front office commented on how ripped James Wiseman looked. I did hear, “Anyone who tells you MIN really wants to get off the pick is lying.” They went on to say that the news is really being created by player agents right now, and they have 30 different agendas. A recent Athletic story said that Morey and Rosas were cut from the same cloth, never told the truth, and always had their own agenda. This media source said that he’s never found that to be true, but like any good GM, he’ll blow a little smoke around if it gives him leverage, but in general, Rosas and company are trying very hard to rebuild the relationship between the organization and the media that Thibs destroyed.

I also listened to Hollinger and Duncan, and he said that most of the people he’s talked to believe that LaMelo Ball has the highest ceiling, and thinks that’s who the Wolves will take. I don’t think Hollinger is spending a Woj-like number of hours trying to still communicate with everyone, but I’m sure he still has a few connections. Local reporter Darren Wolfson thinks it will be LaMelo or Edwards, and wonders if the time the team invested in Wiggins with multiple coaches and multiple roles would sour them on Edwards. He also added that he thinks Wiseman is the best prospect, but he doesn’t think MIN will go after him with Towns.

Keep in mind though - these are all opinions, just like we all have. The universal message I get is that Rosas is not committing to any specific player until after all the workouts and interviews. He is sorting through offers, but the decision is not made, and won’t be made until later.

[shrink]

Somebody asked me my opinion of the odds. Remember, this is just my opinion, and it’s based on what little we know today:

10%. Trade out of the draft for Win Now talent
25%. Trade down in the draft to another lottery pick plus
65%. Draft the BAP at #1

[pacers33granger]

Somebody asked me my opinion of the odds. Remember, this is just my opinion, and it’s based on what little we know today:

10%. Trade out of the draft for Win Now talent
25%. Trade down in the draft to another lottery pick plus
65%. Draft the BAP at #1

Is this based more on what the expected offers for trading down are or the Wolves feeling like 1 is that much better a prospect than someone in the 3-6 range?

Seems if Minny is gunshy about Edwards and doesn't see a way for Wiseman and Towns to co-exist at all that a trade down almost has to be the choice. My personal thoughts about Ball being a legitimately not good prospect aside, even in the best reasonable case scenario with him he's an awful fit with the roster.

This is a tough draft for everyone, but Minny may have it the toughest in a lot of ways as none of the top prospects are really more than ok fits with the core that's there already.

[NYG]

Good stuff

Nothing on Wiseman? Can him and Towns co-exist?

I haven’t come across anything recent. Rosas was very clear (?) back when they won the lottery that they would not dismiss drafting any player, regardless of fit, if they thought that player was the best choice. I think this was an obvious reference to Wiseman. Whether he was just blowing smoke to prop up interest and try to increase his leverage - I don’t know. This is what a good GM should say, whether he means it or not.

Ok, I’m fully up to date on the local info, and even exchanged a few emails with media members who may have actual connections. And my results? It’s “wait and see.”

The NBA League Office has finally decided how in-person workouts and interview are going to work, and they don’t like it. There are multiple hoops for the teams to jump through (like teams must go to the prospects, 1-on-0 drills, anyone meeting with a prospect must test negative for Covid three times). In-person workouts and interviews will be huge this year, with so little data from the last year. MIN just started meeting prospects this week.

Right now, no one is off the table. In fact, I heard that one person in the front office commented on how ripped James Wiseman looked. I did hear, “Anyone who tells you MIN really wants to get off the pick is lying.” They went on to say that the news is really being created by player agents right now, and they have 30 different agendas. A recent Athletic story said that Morey and Rosas were cut from the same cloth, never told the truth, and always had their own agenda. This media source said that he’s never found that to be true, but like any good GM, he’ll blow a little smoke around if it gives him leverage, but in general, Rosas and company are trying very hard to rebuild the relationship between the organization and the media that Thibs destroyed.

I also listened to Hollinger and Duncan, and he said that most of the people he’s talked to believe that LaMelo Ball has the highest ceiling, and thinks that’s who the Wolves will take. I don’t think Hollinger is spending a Woj-like number of hours trying to still communicate with everyone, but I’m sure he still has a few connections. Local reporter Darren Wolfson thinks it will be LaMelo or Edwards, and wonders if the time the team invested in Wiggins with multiple coaches and multiple roles would sour them on Edwards. He also added that he thinks Wiseman is the best prospect, but he doesn’t think MIN will go after him with Towns.

Keep in mind though - these are all opinions, just like we all have. The universal message I get is that Rosas is not committing to any specific player until after all the workouts and interviews. He is sorting through offers, but the decision is not made, and won’t be made until later.

I think the unknown actually eliminates the "after you draft a guy it's like driving a car off the lot for his trade value instead of trading the pick before it's made" meaning the value of picks won't be that great, but if LaMelo Ball and Jarrett Culver look really good mid-season, they could start being pieces in a more significant trade that is on the table right now.

[shrink]

Somebody asked me my opinion of the odds. Remember, this is just my opinion, and it’s based on what little we know today:

10%. Trade out of the draft for Win Now talent
25%. Trade down in the draft to another lottery pick plus
65%. Draft the BAP at #1

Is this based more on what the expected offers for trading down are or the Wolves feeling like 1 is that much better a prospect than someone in the 3-6 range?

Seems if Minny is gunshy about Edwards and doesn't see a way for Wiseman and Towns to co-exist at all that a trade down almost has to be the choice. My personal thoughts about Ball being a legitimately not good prospect aside, even in the best reasonable case scenario with him he's an awful fit with the roster.

This is a tough draft for everyone, but Minny may have it the toughest in a lot of ways as none of the top prospects are really more than ok fits with the core that's there already.

This is all supposition. I want to be clear. Wolfson In his podcast isn’t saying MIN is gun shy about Edwards, or that Rosas wouldn’t choose Edwards - that is just his personal opinion about what he says he will do. And no one is saying that Ball won’t be the choice - many think he will be taken #1, and I heard one national source say that he and Russell at least start with enough size to perhaps be a good enough fit defensively.

I agree with you that all three have warts that could be bad fits. But I don’t think any team with the #1 pick should make their selection based on fit. My view is that we won’t see teams get serious (if they ever do) about making a legitimate trade offer until a few days before the draft. As I understand it, Scout’s are just starting to get access to these prospects. It will take a week or two before anyone could fall in love with a prospect, including MIN. I am very anxious to hear about these workouts.

[NYG]

Somebody asked me my opinion of the odds. Remember, this is just my opinion, and it’s based on what little we know today:

10%. Trade out of the draft for Win Now talent
25%. Trade down in the draft to another lottery pick plus
65%. Draft the BAP at #1

Is this based more on what the expected offers for trading down are or the Wolves feeling like 1 is that much better a prospect than someone in the 3-6 range?

Seems if Minny is gunshy about Edwards and doesn't see a way for Wiseman and Towns to co-exist at all that a trade down almost has to be the choice. My personal thoughts about Ball being a legitimately not good prospect aside, even in the best reasonable case scenario with him he's an awful fit with the roster.

This is a tough draft for everyone, but Minny may have it the toughest in a lot of ways as none of the top prospects are really more than ok fits with the core that's there already.

This is all supposition. I want to be clear. Wolfson In his podcast isn’t saying MIN is gun shy about Edwards, or that they Rosas wouldn’t choose Edwards - that is just his personal opinion about what he says he will do. And no one is saying that Ball won’t be the choice - many think he will be taken #1, and I heard one national source say that he and Russell at least start with enough size to perhaps be a good enough fit defensively.

I agree with you that all three have warts that could be bad fits. But I don’t think any team with the #1 pick should make their selection based on fit. My view is that we won’t see teams get serious (if they ever do) about making a legitimate trade offer until a few days before the draft. As I understand it, Scout’s are just starting to get access to these prospects. It will take a week or two before anyone could fall in love with a prospect, including MIN. I am very anxious to hear about these workouts.

I just don't see what legitimate trade offer is out there this year. There's so much uncertainty both in terms of scouting and financially and such a limited pre-draft process that I can't see any team taking such a bold risk of giving up a significant asset to either move up or using a veteran to get the pick. I think you have to just hope you can develop the BPA at 1 into the best possible trade asset you can as well as Culver and you're suddenly looking at a great deadline return for Culver, 1 and Johnson.

[shrink]

Is this based more on what the expected offers for trading down are or the Wolves feeling like 1 is that much better a prospect than someone in the 3-6 range?

Seems if Minny is gunshy about Edwards and doesn't see a way for Wiseman and Towns to co-exist at all that a trade down almost has to be the choice. My personal thoughts about Ball being a legitimately not good prospect aside, even in the best reasonable case scenario with him he's an awful fit with the roster.

This is a tough draft for everyone, but Minny may have it the toughest in a lot of ways as none of the top prospects are really more than ok fits with the core that's there already.

This is all supposition. I want to be clear. Wolfson In his podcast isn’t saying MIN is gun shy about Edwards, or that they Rosas wouldn’t choose Edwards - that is just his personal opinion about what he says he will do. And no one is saying that Ball won’t be the choice - many think he will be taken #1, and I heard one national source say that he and Russell at least start with enough size to perhaps be a good enough fit defensively.

I agree with you that all three have warts that could be bad fits. But I don’t think any team with the #1 pick should make their selection based on fit. My view is that we won’t see teams get serious (if they ever do) about making a legitimate trade offer until a few days before the draft. As I understand it, Scout’s are just starting to get access to these prospects. It will take a week or two before anyone could fall in love with a prospect, including MIN. I am very anxious to hear about these workouts.

I just don't see what legitimate trade offer is out there this year. There's so much uncertainty both in terms of scouting and financially and such a limited pre-draft process that I can't see any team taking such a bold risk of giving up a significant asset to either move up or using a veteran to get the pick. I think you have to just hope you can develop the BPA at 1 into the best possible trade asset you can as well as Culver and you're suddenly looking at a great deadline return for Culver, 1 and Johnson.

I agree that there is a lack of information right now. However, this is just going to make the information from the pre-draft workouts and interviews become so much more important. It’s possible that if we had a college season free of a Covid and other distractions, one of Ball, Edwards or Wiseman might have revealed himself to be a budding superstar, and there would be none of this talk about the draft being horrible, or that these three players are in the same tier. It’s also possible one of these players is going to flash skills next week that truly set them apart from the other two (my guess Wiseman is most likely), and one of the 30 GM’s are going to want to jump in on “the next AD,” before MIN realizes what they’ve got with the #1 pick.

This year, the draft “experts” haven’t had much data to analyze, so it’s far easier for them to not like anyone, since no one had the chance to emerge. The next few weeks are when we’re going to see what the real front offices think of these kids, and those great scouting departments really have a chance to shine.

[NYG]

This is all supposition. I want to be clear. Wolfson In his podcast isn’t saying MIN is gun shy about Edwards, or that they Rosas wouldn’t choose Edwards - that is just his personal opinion about what he says he will do. And no one is saying that Ball won’t be the choice - many think he will be taken #1, and I heard one national source say that he and Russell at least start with enough size to perhaps be a good enough fit defensively.

I agree with you that all three have warts that could be bad fits. But I don’t think any team with the #1 pick should make their selection based on fit. My view is that we won’t see teams get serious (if they ever do) about making a legitimate trade offer until a few days before the draft. As I understand it, Scout’s are just starting to get access to these prospects. It will take a week or two before anyone could fall in love with a prospect, including MIN. I am very anxious to hear about these workouts.

I just don't see what legitimate trade offer is out there this year. There's so much uncertainty both in terms of scouting and financially and such a limited pre-draft process that I can't see any team taking such a bold risk of giving up a significant asset to either move up or using a veteran to get the pick. I think you have to just hope you can develop the BPA at 1 into the best possible trade asset you can as well as Culver and you're suddenly looking at a great deadline return for Culver, 1 and Johnson.

I agree that there is a lack of information right now. However, this is just going to make the information from the pre-draft workouts and interviews become so much more important. It’s possible that if we had a college season free of a Covid and other distractions, one of Ball, Edwards or Wiseman might have revealed himself to be a budding superstar, and there would be none of this talk about the draft being horrible, or that these three players are in the same tier. It’s also possible one of these players is going to flash skills next week that truly set them apart from the other two (my guess Wiseman is most likely), and one of the 30 GM’s are going to want to jump in on “the next AD,” before MIN realizes what they’ve got with the #1 pick.

This year, the draft “experts” haven’t had much data to analyze, so it’s far easier for them to not like anyone, since no one had the chance to emerge. The next few weeks are when we’re going to see what the real front offices think of these kids, and those great scouting departments really have a chance to shine.

I do agree with a lot of that. I think this draft while unknown in a trade value sense as I said above will actually be really underrated and have a lot of good talent emerge in a very under-promise/over-perform kind of way. I do think Wiseman will separate himself from the pact, but it will be hard for teams to be confident enough to give up a ton of value.

My point isn't that this draft is weak, it's that it is so unknown. You really can't go all in on a trade. If that's the case and Wiseman is this draft's standout then Minnesota is better off taking Wiseman for themselves than taking what the best offer likely will be is what I mean. Wiseman will have more value if he looks like a stud at the deadline than he does on draft night.

[Texas Chuck]

so MDA did end up working for Nash eh?

[shrink]

I just don't see what legitimate trade offer is out there this year. There's so much uncertainty both in terms of scouting and financially and such a limited pre-draft process that I can't see any team taking such a bold risk of giving up a significant asset to either move up or using a veteran to get the pick. I think you have to just hope you can develop the BPA at 1 into the best possible trade asset you can as well as Culver and you're suddenly looking at a great deadline return for Culver, 1 and Johnson.

I agree that there is a lack of information right now. However, this is just going to make the information from the pre-draft workouts and interviews become so much more important. It’s possible that if we had a college season free of a Covid and other distractions, one of Ball, Edwards or Wiseman might have revealed himself to be a budding superstar, and there would be none of this talk about the draft being horrible, or that these three players are in the same tier. It’s also possible one of these players is going to flash skills next week that truly set them apart from the other two (my guess Wiseman is most likely), and one of the 30 GM’s are going to want to jump in on “the next AD,” before MIN realizes what they’ve got with the #1 pick.

This year, the draft “experts” haven’t had much data to analyze, so it’s far easier for them to not like anyone, since no one had the chance to emerge. The next few weeks are when we’re going to see what the real front offices think of these kids, and those great scouting departments really have a chance to shine.

I do agree with a lot of that. I think this draft while unknown in a trade value sense as I said above will actually be really underrated and have a lot of good talent emerge in a very under-promise/over-perform kind of way. I do think Wiseman will separate himself from the pact, but it will be hard for teams to be confident enough to give up a ton of value.

My point isn't that this draft is weak, it's that it is so unknown. You really can't go all in on a trade. If that's the case and Wiseman is this draft's standout then Minnesota is better off taking Wiseman for themselves than taking what the best offer likely will be is what I mean. Wiseman will have more value if he looks like a stud at the deadline than he does on draft night.

I agree. I’ve been trying to explain it like this:

Me: Last year, your team would have traded a ton of value for the #1 pick, right?
Them: Of course, it’s Zion!
Me: Yes. And if teams made offers, they got shot down. Do you think MIN would ask for a Zion-level package for the 1st this year?
Them: Of course not! Whoever is drafted at #1 is too risky! They’re no Zion!
Me: Right! They aren’t Zion, so the availability and the asking price aren’t Zion either.

You are so right that the draft is an unknown, and the first team to identify a guy that could be a star (If one exists) will get a massive return for a smaller price, from a team that might actually trade them the pick. I think it could get really crazy in the 48 hours leading up to the draft, with teams having wide differences in opinions, up and down the draft.

[pacers33granger]

This is all supposition. I want to be clear. Wolfson In his podcast isn’t saying MIN is gun shy about Edwards, or that Rosas wouldn’t choose Edwards - that is just his personal opinion about what he says he will do. And no one is saying that Ball won’t be the choice - many think he will be taken #1, and I heard one national source say that he and Russell at least start with enough size to perhaps be a good enough fit defensively.

That's fair. Regarding Ball/Dlo, I don't see how it could be anything but a failure. The size is there, but neither have shown the desire to defend and I'm skeptical either have the IQ on that end to be anything more than slightly negative in the longshot best case scenario.

I agree with you that all three have warts that could be bad fits. But I don’t think any team with the #1 pick should make their selection based on fit. My view is that we won’t see teams get serious (if they ever do) about making a legitimate trade offer until a few days before the draft. As I understand it, Scout’s are just starting to get access to these prospects. It will take a week or two before anyone could fall in love with a prospect, including MIN. I am very anxious to hear about these workouts.

Yeah there should be a lot of movement going on soon. I think for Minny it's tough though. I totally agree that you take the BPA with a top 3 pick. But if that's not Edwards, it's likely Wiseman and the fit could be very bad for Minny with KAT.