Orlando early offseason in review (HW/bondom34/dbrandon/Smitty731/HowardMass)

[caliban]

Tried to stay away from this one but the longevity and the diversity of the poll pulled me in.

Process

Free Agency:

DJ Augusin: 4-years, $29 million. Augustin is the kind of player you ideally pay 1-3M to at the end of free agency and that makes the deal about 5M a year (20M in total) of dead salary. That this contract is the first handed out with that cap space at hand from the Magic end is strange to say the least. Question mark for the player evaluation.

Grade: F

Evan Fournier: 5 years, $85 million. Solid deal and a contract Fournier should grow in to quite well. Not the straight bargain some would have you think tho.

Grade B

Bismack Biyombo 4 years, 72 million (last year PO). Not a big fan of this deal but Bismack is a solid piece and the contract is fine for a 24? year old back up Center I guess. I do question the fit however and can't help to feel that the money would have been better spent on another position. It gives Ibaka less time at the Center position which in turn gives Gordon less mintes at the PF spot. A Vucevic deal feels imminent but the fit with him and Ibaka is the saving grace for that trade and a Bismack/Ibaka pairing is bordering on an impossible offensive fit together. Questions

Grade B-

Jeff Green 15 million. T. Harris for J. Green on 15M? this is horrible, no way around it. If you needed a back up Wing they should have gone after someone that actually can play some defense or hit some 3's, W. Johnson at 5,6M or J. Johnson at 4M would have freed up another 10M or so. That money should have gone towards something more productive with a higher roster priority, say a back up guard better than DJ Augustine. Question mark for the player and roster evaluation

F

F. Vogels positive attitude feels like the perfect fit for this roster after years of loosing seasons. But while Vogel is an upgrade over all the terrabad ones they've had recently, Frank's teams hasn't over or under performed the preseason expectations or the in season SRS wins in either direction on average over the last 4years. It's not a top10 coach or anything they just signed.

A-

Trades:

#11, Oladipo and Ersan to OKC for Ibaka. Not as up in arms about this one as some, not a Dipo fan even tho I'd soundly prefer him over E. Payton. The value is to me a slight loss, but Ibaka is in theory a perfect fit next to Vucevic and that's good in a vacuum. However it does, as most outsiders already have noted in this thread, push Gordon away from his ideal position. This would have me really concerned as a Magic fan when Gordon is the best thing on that roster and is the one piece every decision should be measured against.

C+ if they don't have to max out Ibaka or anything ridiculous like that next summer. Then it's a D, possibly even worse.

2019 2nd (all sorts of clauses) to Det for Meeks. What am I missing here, injured, unproductive & over-payed. I don't get it and that's another 4M in dead salary on the books and they could probably have found more value in T. Daniels for 3M/3y, Seth Curry 2,9M or L. Barbosa 4M instead.

D

Result

It's possible that Magic takes another leap of 5-8 wins with a standard young guys improvement but if that scenario comes to fruition it imo has little to do with the trades and transactions the management performed this summer. Because of what they did do I'd argue that they instead decreased their nearby future result some.

D

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Total Grade: D+, it could be worse.

[HartfordWhalers]

Tried to stay away from this one but the longevity and the diversity of the poll pulled me in.

San Antonio is getting quite a little debate on the merits of Pau, in case you get more time.

[Mich3006]

I can´t imagine that Aaron Gordon should switch to the SF for real. He´s below average at shooting (at best).

Beside the hiring of Vogel (great move), the Magic look good on paper but I doubt their pieces will fit

[Colbinii]

I mean if we're looking at o-ratings as the source of truth, Gordon had a 114, Ibaka a 108, and Fournier is sliding to his natural position from SF to SG with a 111.

I am not looking at individual offensive rating, rather what the TEAM did when a player was on the court and off the court.

Your comment about o-rating doesn't refute anything - it's just throwing out another fact. Everything I said before is true. Oladipo is an above average usage player with slightly below average results. The fact still is the most successful team composition the magic had all year was one without Oladipo.

In a sample size that is equivalent to 4 games. I know what sample size does to statistics, and it may help if you read up on it as well. Also, why did the Magic trade 2 of those players for basically nothing, as Hartford said.

I'm just pointing counter argument to "the magic relied on Oladipo as a crutch in their offense last year" I keep appearing here. He might have been? but I'm just trying to present the other side that there is in fact evidence he was holding the team back in some ways too.

I don't see how he was holding the team back. None of the evidence points to that. The team had a higher oRTG with him on the court than any other player besides Channing Frye, who they traded for nothing. I am curious how you are coming to this conclusion, because from all of the data I have looked at, I don't see this conclusion that you are coming to as accurate.

[shangrila]

I guess in theory Ibaka should help with spacing on offence. He wasn't good last season (32%) but the 3 years previous he was alright (38%, 37% and 35% respectively). So if he can recapture some of that then I could see him and Gordon kind of flipping roles on offence.

And if I'm honest, I wasn't even aware of half the moves they made. Augustin is a bad contract and trading for Meeks seems stupid. And of the ones I was aware of, Biyombo seemed like an overpay and Green is just...why? Why would you give poor man's Rudy Gay a contract at all, let alone 15mil? Fournier was fine though and Vogel is a nice addition, though he's more solid than anything.

So yeah I've got to agree with caliban, B+ getting so many votes seems overly optimistic. If I were being kind I'd give them a C+ but I could go as low as a D-, Fournier and Vogel the only things keeping it from an F.

[Illmatic12]

Although the Hawks are not built to get the basketball to one player with the game on the line, Paul Millsap thinks it might be something to look at in the offseason. The Hawks has several failures late in games that cost the team victories this season.

“A little bit but our team has never been that way,” Millsap said last week during his exit interview on whether he felt pressure to be a go-to player after signing a big contract. “We never relied on one guy to pretty much carry the load or go get a big bucket at a crucial time. It’s always been spread out whether it’s been myself or Jeff (Teague) or Al (Horford) or Kyle (Korver). It’s always been to the guy with the hot hand. Maybe, it’s something we look at. I know we need to get better in those situations, individually, because we lost a lot of games coming down the stretch and it’s big for us.”

http://www.myajc.com/news/sports/basketball/millsap-hawks-need-to-get-better-in-late-game-situ/nrNSg/

The hawks really did struggle though, and it wasn't just in the post-season at all. They tried to push Millsap to be that guy and he couldn't deliver. Yes they have all stars, but they aren't great go to scorers. Vucevic and Fournier aren't bad themselves. They both had some great isolation play game winners this past season, and Vucevic's efficiency will possibly rise now that he has better spacing and more depth behind him. Skiles' midrange madness is gone. Hopefully he gets more shots in the paint with some better floor spacers on the court and less pick n pop action. Volume scorer to me mainly means he doesn't get to the FT line, and that's a problem Horford shares as well. And its not really a 1 to 1 comparison because I never projected the Magic to win 48. I said 43 wins, which is a significant difference. As far as having IQ and execution far greater than the Magic's, then why is it their offense was similarly inefficient throughout the season? Obviously the older team has the upper hand in that regard, and are expected to execute better, but I also expect the Magic's young players to improve in that regard. Especially late in games. For all their struggles last year, the Magic still won 35 games (could've easily added 2-3 wins), but I agree they lost a lot of close ones. Not unusual at all for a young team. Another year of experience helps a lot. You could see their significant improvement last year from 2014.

And what Vogel said is obviously hyperbole. What he means is the offense isn't going to be very good (which I agreed with and projected them to be around 22nd in ORTG). I mean do you really think they'll average 68 PPG? Even the 10 win sixers averaged like 97-98 PPG. No, the Magic haven't solved all their offensive problems, that I why they won't be a 48-50 win team IMO. They are going to struggle to score at times, but not enough to keep them out of the play offs IMO. Again, all they need to do is match last years' production, and let their defense carry them to the play offs similar to the Hawks and Pacers last year. Its completely possible they do that and still don't make the play offs, but I think they'll at least be close to 0.500.

I respect your opinion and optimism, we can go back and forth but eventually we'll just have to see how things play out. Clearly I'm of the camp that thinks they're still probably another year from making the playoffs. But even if they don't make it they should at least be competitive and close to getting in.

Like I said I've enjoyed watching Magic games the past few years, so I'll continue to watch next season as well and hopefully they continue to be a fun team and Vogel can really put his stamp on those guys.

[Colbinii]

I guess in theory Ibaka should help with spacing on offence. He wasn't good last season (32%) but the 3 years previous he was alright (38%, 37% and 35% respectively). So if he can recapture some of that then I could see him and Gordon kind of flipping roles on offence.

He doesn't space the floor as well as Frye and is much more limited offensively than Tobias Harris.

And if I'm honest, I wasn't even aware of half the moves they made. Augustin is a bad contract and trading for Meeks seems stupid. And of the ones I was aware of, Biyombo seemed like an overpay and Green is just...why? Why would you give poor man's Rudy Gay a contract at all, let alone 15mil? Fournier was fine though and Vogel is a nice addition, though he's more solid than anything.

The Green contract is 1 year. Do you want 15 million in cap space that isn't spent, or a solid back-up? Seems like a no-brainer to me, especially when playoffs is the goal this season for the Magic. Meeks gives spacing and they desperately needed a back-up PG, especially after losing the playmaking (not a lot, but he did provide playmaking) that oladipo provided.

So yeah I've got to agree with caliban, B+ getting so many votes seems overly optimistic. If I were being kind I'd give them a C+ but I could go as low as a D-, Fournier and Vogel the only things keeping it from an F.

I gave them a C-. I would have voted D+ but I didn't see it anywhere.
B+ is from mostly Magic fans, because I haven't seen more than one or two non-magic fans give them anything above a C+.

[OrlandoNed]

I guess in theory Ibaka should help with spacing on offence. He wasn't good last season (32%) but the 3 years previous he was alright (38%, 37% and 35% respectively). So if he can recapture some of that then I could see him and Gordon kind of flipping roles on offence.

And if I'm honest, I wasn't even aware of half the moves they made. Augustin is a bad contract and trading for Meeks seems stupid. And of the ones I was aware of, Biyombo seemed like an overpay and Green is just...why? Why would you give poor man's Rudy Gay a contract at all, let alone 15mil? Fournier was fine though and Vogel is a nice addition, though he's more solid than anything.

So yeah I've got to agree with caliban, B+ getting so many votes seems overly optimistic. If I were being kind I'd give them a C+ but I could go as low as a D-, Fournier and Vogel the only things keeping it from an F.

Augustin is not a bad contract. His deal is reasonable for one of the better backup point guards in the league and he is a lot less shaky healthwise than Watson. The length of the contract keeps us from having to pay more for the backup PG spot if the cap ever goes up again and Augustin will be here long enough to hold down the fort if Payton can't prove he should be the starter and we have to look for a different starter.

Didn't give up anything for Meeks, team needed a cheap shooter for bench depth.

Biyombo wasn't that much of an overpay when you factor in the contracts of all the other free agent centers this offseason.

Green's deal is probably an overpay to convince him to be a guaranteed backup, but it's only a one year deal so it's harmless to our cap. We needed a stopgap backup 3/4 and he fits the bill.

[shangrila]

He doesn't space the floor as well as Frye and is much more limited offensively than Tobias Harris.

Which is why I said "in theory".

And Harris doesn't have much to do with this. Ibaka would be standing on the wings waiting to shoot 3s in this scenario to let Gordon do what he does inside. Harris would need a lot more of the ball to be effective while gumming up the defence.

The Green contract is 1 year. Do you want 15 million in cap space that isn't spent, or a solid back-up? Seems like a no-brainer to me, especially when playoffs is the goal this season for the Magic.

Green isn't a solid backup. He's not a solid anything. I'd rather have kept the space and tried to snatch a bargain when the dust settled.

Meeks gives spacing and they desperately needed a back-up PG, especially after losing the playmaking (not a lot, but he did provide playmaking) that oladipo provided.

Meeks hasn't been healthy for a while now and the minutes he'll likely get should arguably be going to Hezonja. Augustin I might be being a little harsh on, I'll give you that.

I gave them a C-. I would have voted D+ but I didn't see it anywhere.
B+ is from mostly Magic fans, because I haven't seen more than one or two non-magic fans give them anything above a C+.

Figured as much. I'm sure every team's poll will be similar.

[HartfordWhalers]

Didn't give up anything for Meeks, team needed a cheap shooter for bench depth.

Cap space and an actual 2nd, although one that should be a low one.

[OrlandoNed]

Didn't give up anything for Meeks, team needed a cheap shooter for bench depth.

Cap space and an actual 2nd, although one that should be a low one.

I didn't mean literally nothing, but nothing worth fretting over losing. Losing a late future 2nd when we have several future 2nds is no big deal to me.

[Texas Chuck]

Didn't give up anything for Meeks, team needed a cheap shooter for bench depth.

Cap space and an actual 2nd, although one that should be a low one.

I didn't mean literally nothing, but nothing worth fretting over losing. Losing a late future 2nd when we have several future 2nds is no big deal to me.

Sorry but over $20M of cap space on Green/Meeks is far from nothing. And as a Magic fan you should be ticked off your management threw it away like that. Especially after giving up Redick to get Tobias only to turn around and give Tobias away for the cap space you just used on Green/Meeks.

It's a bad allocation of resources, period. The fact that the deals are one year makes them less bad than if they were long-term deals, but it doesn't magically make them good.

[shangrila]

Augustin is not a bad contract. His deal is reasonable for one of the better backup point guards in the league and he is a lot less shaky healthwise than Watson. The length of the contract keeps us from having to pay more for the backup PG spot if the cap ever goes up again and Augustin will be here long enough to hold down the fort if Payton can't prove he should be the starter and we have to look for a different starter.

Didn't give up anything for Meeks, team needed a cheap shooter for bench depth.

Biyombo wasn't that much of an overpay when you factor in the contracts of all the other free agent centers this offseason.

Green's deal is probably an overpay to convince him to be a guaranteed backup, but it's only a one year deal so it's harmless to our cap. We needed a stopgap backup 3/4 and he fits the bill.

I admit I was harsh on Augustin. 4 years is still a bit lengthy but...eh. Meeks I guess is cheap, comparatively speaking. I'll give you that. I'd rather see those minutes going to Hezonja though.

Biyombo is still an overpay. Just because idiots forked out similar money to Mozgov and Mahinmi doesn't change that. And I felt his value got inflated by those good playoff games he had to begin with. So he's not bad for a backup, despite his limitations, but that's a hell of a lot of money for a 20mpg type of guy.

And the fact Green is only for 1 year is the sole saving grace there. He's an inefficient, ok raw stats kind of guy that doesn't seem conducive to winning. For 15mil they could have done better.

[bondom34]

Augustin is not a bad contract. His deal is reasonable for one of the better backup point guards in the league and he is a lot less shaky healthwise than Watson. The length of the contract keeps us from having to pay more for the backup PG spot if the cap ever goes up again and Augustin will be here long enough to hold down the fort if Payton can't prove he should be the starter and we have to look for a different starter.

Didn't give up anything for Meeks, team needed a cheap shooter for bench depth.

Biyombo wasn't that much of an overpay when you factor in the contracts of all the other free agent centers this offseason.

Green's deal is probably an overpay to convince him to be a guaranteed backup, but it's only a one year deal so it's harmless to our cap. We needed a stopgap backup 3/4 and he fits the bill.

I admit I was harsh on Augustin. 4 years is still a bit lengthy but...eh. Meeks I guess is cheap, comparatively speaking. I'll give you that. I'd rather see those minutes going to Hezonja though.

Biyombo is still an overpay. Just because idiots forked out similar money to Mozgov and Mahinmi doesn't change that. And I felt his value got inflated by those good playoff games he had to begin with. So he's not bad for a backup, despite his limitations, but that's a hell of a lot of money for a 20mpg type of guy.

And the fact Green is only for 1 year is the sole saving grace there. He's an inefficient, ok raw stats kind of guy that doesn't seem conducive to winning. For 15mil they could have done better.

Meeks minutes will be to someone else. He's injured already.

[OrlandoNed]

Cap space and an actual 2nd, although one that should be a low one.

I didn't mean literally nothing, but nothing worth fretting over losing. Losing a late future 2nd when we have several future 2nds is no big deal to me.

Sorry but over $20M of cap space on Green/Meeks is far from nothing. And as a Magic fan you should be ticked off your management threw it away like that. Especially after giving up Redick to get Tobias only to turn around and give Tobias away for the cap space you just used on Green/Meeks.

It's a bad allocation of resources, period. The fact that the deals are one year makes them less bad than if they were long-term deals, but it doesn't magically make them good.

Never said they were good deals or bad deals. Don't put words in my mouth. Having 20 million in expiring contracts/temporary depth preserves cap space to make moves next year with a very nice free agent class. Yeah losing Harris for cap space and not even a draft pick was a bitter pill to swallow as I was/am very high on him, but it makes sense if there was a late change of heart in wanting to commit that much salary to Harris with Gordon filling the same role but on a rookie deal.

[Texas Chuck]

[
Never said they were good deals or bad deals. Don't put words in my mouth.

Didn't give up anything for Meeks, team needed a cheap shooter for bench depth.


Green's deal is probably an overpay to convince him to be a guaranteed backup, but it's only a one year deal so it's harmless to our cap. We needed a stopgap backup 3/4 and he fits the bill.

Here are your own words. While you technically didn't say good, you made it clear you didn't think they were bad. And in fact in this response I quoted here, you again talked about expiring contracts as if they were particularly valuable. That stopped being the case years ago. Teams often pay to dump expiring contracts--in fact this occurs way more often than they flip them for longer-term contracts.

Pure cap space is a more valuable asset. And you could certainly have spent $20M more efficiently even if you stuck to one year deals.

[HartfordWhalers]

Didn't give up anything for Meeks, team needed a cheap shooter for bench depth.

Cap space and an actual 2nd, although one that should be a low one.

I didn't mean literally nothing, but nothing worth fretting over losing. Losing a late future 2nd when we have several future 2nds is no big deal to me.

Oh, its definitely not tragic. Philly losing Christian Wood bothers me more. But it is a small lose for sure.

Still, when looking at Orlando's offseason, it really comes down to the Ibaka trade, the Biyombo contract and not doing anything at starting pg. The rest is fluff around the margins, Jeff Green included.

[shangrila]

Augustin is not a bad contract. His deal is reasonable for one of the better backup point guards in the league and he is a lot less shaky healthwise than Watson. The length of the contract keeps us from having to pay more for the backup PG spot if the cap ever goes up again and Augustin will be here long enough to hold down the fort if Payton can't prove he should be the starter and we have to look for a different starter.

Didn't give up anything for Meeks, team needed a cheap shooter for bench depth.

Biyombo wasn't that much of an overpay when you factor in the contracts of all the other free agent centers this offseason.

Green's deal is probably an overpay to convince him to be a guaranteed backup, but it's only a one year deal so it's harmless to our cap. We needed a stopgap backup 3/4 and he fits the bill.

I admit I was harsh on Augustin. 4 years is still a bit lengthy but...eh. Meeks I guess is cheap, comparatively speaking. I'll give you that. I'd rather see those minutes going to Hezonja though.

Biyombo is still an overpay. Just because idiots forked out similar money to Mozgov and Mahinmi doesn't change that. And I felt his value got inflated by those good playoff games he had to begin with. So he's not bad for a backup, despite his limitations, but that's a hell of a lot of money for a 20mpg type of guy.

And the fact Green is only for 1 year is the sole saving grace there. He's an inefficient, ok raw stats kind of guy that doesn't seem conducive to winning. For 15mil they could have done better.

Meeks minutes will be to someone else. He's injured already.

, really? That was a concern but still...sucks for Orlando.

[Texas Chuck]

Still, when looking at Orlando's offseason, it really comes down to the Ibaka trade, the Biyombo contract and not doing anything at starting pg. The rest is fluff around the margins, Jeff Green included.

I think Green/Meeks is definitely related to the PG issue. Surely Deron Williams takes $18M for one year. Heck he might take $12M considering he only got $10M in Dallas. Deron Williams is a mediocre PG, but what he can do is run an offense. And it just makes so much more sense. Then you don't waste that money on Augustin and maybe you added Jared Dudley on the wing--a significant addition. Or just gave a few million to Gerald Green. Or, well there were better options.

I agree those other moves are more more significant, but I strongly disagree with the idea that a team who gave away players at the deadline specifically to clear cap space spending over $20M of that cap space on Meeks/Green isn't a negative.

[HartfordWhalers]

Still, when looking at Orlando's offseason, it really comes down to the Ibaka trade, the Biyombo contract and not doing anything at starting pg. The rest is fluff around the margins, Jeff Green included.

I think Green/Meeks is definitely related to the PG issue. Surely Deron Williams takes $18M for one year. Heck he might take $12M considering he only got $10M in Dallas. Deron Williams is a mediocre PG, but what he can do is run an offense. And it just makes so much more sense. Then you don't waste that money on Augustin and maybe you added Jared Dudley on the wing--a significant addition. Or just gave a few million to Gerald Green. Or, well there were better options.

I agree those other moves are more more significant, but I strongly disagree with the idea that a team who gave away players at the deadline specifically to clear cap space spending over $20M of that cap space on Meeks/Green isn't a negative.

It is a negative. It is just less of a negative than not even getting Deron for 1 year, or Teague, or Hill or ... Now, the two obviously relate, but I also separate them. The cap money for Deron could have been Augustin and Meeks, and Green is still there as roster filler for example.