Random Rumors and Trade Board General Thoughts Thread

[giannis and 1]

Something.that bothers the hell out of me:

People stating a large partial guarantee like its a good thing. It is NOT good. You are paying it potentially for zero production. Its only to limit your losses if the player is injured or pulled a batum but on its own its not a positive.

It depends. For example, Bledsoe's 3rd year is 3.9 guaranteed. That surely can only increase his value as opposed to having that year fully guaranteed.

[giannis and 1]

I'm wondering if the Bucks would be able to swing a trade where they swap Brook for a stretch 5 that is better at switching on defense? Basically a center that can shoot the 3 like Brook (preferably better), but is more mobile. And we can afford to downgrade in terms of rim protection. Brook's rim protection is overkill since we have Giannis to help, so it makes sense for us to downgrade in that area at the center position while getting a guy that is better at defending other positions.

Theiss would fit this perfectly but I don't think Boston wants to trade him. Also Olynyk but the Heat will never trade with us.

[Scoot McGroot]

Something.that bothers the hell out of me:

People stating a large partial guarantee like its a good thing. It is NOT good. You are paying it potentially for zero production. Its only to limit your losses if the player is injured or pulled a batum but on its own its not a positive.

It depends. For example, Bledsoe's 3rd year is 3.9 guaranteed. That surely can only increase his value as opposed to having that year fully guaranteed.

But inherently less valuable than just not being on the books at all, which is what Godaddycurse likely meant.

[NYG]

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Culver, Johnson and 17 for Oladipo? I feel like there's a risk/reward factor for each side. Culver's ceiling vs. Culver's floor is a big gap. Oladipo's health and re-signing vs. injury risk/flight risk is a big variable in trade value. This trade kind of meets in the middle for both sides IMO. I actually think the Pacers could use Johnson and Culver/17 gives them some young legs to mix in with their core while I think unless Oladipo just completely falls off matches this value in terms of fit even if in an average season for him.

[Scoot McGroot]

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Culver, Johnson and 17 for Oladipo? I feel like there's a risk/reward factor for each side. Culver's ceiling vs. Culver's floor is a big gap. Oladipo's health and re-signing vs. injury risk/flight risk is a big variable in trade value. This trade kind of meets in the middle for both sides IMO. I actually think the Pacers could use Johnson and Culver/17 gives them some young legs to mix in with their core while I think unless Oladipo just completely falls off matches this value in terms of fit even if in an average season for him.

It’d probably be a mid season type move for us if we get we had to move him and we’re willing to take anything (and like whomever was taken at 17).

But now, it’s pretty disappointing and low yield. It’s very hard to invest so heavily in a SG that has severe shooting issues for a long time. Maybe he gets better, but it’s worrisome. Luckily, he’s a really good defensive option, so he’d have some value, but with his salary as an early draft pick, if the shooting doesn’t come around, it’s a question of if he’s overpaid on his rookie deal.

[shrink]

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Culver, Johnson and 17 for Oladipo? I feel like there's a risk/reward factor for each side. Culver's ceiling vs. Culver's floor is a big gap. Oladipo's health and re-signing vs. injury risk/flight risk is a big variable in trade value. This trade kind of meets in the middle for both sides IMO. I actually think the Pacers could use Johnson and Culver/17 gives them some young legs to mix in with their core while I think unless Oladipo just completely falls off matches this value in terms of fit even if in an average season for him.

It’d probably be a mid season type move for us if we get we had to move him and we’re willing to take anything (and like whomever was taken at 17).

But now, it’s pretty disappointing and low yield. It’s very hard to invest so heavily in a SG that has severe shooting issues for a long time. Maybe he gets better, but it’s worrisome. Luckily, he’s a really good defensive option, so he’d have some value, but with his salary as an early draft pick, if the shooting doesn’t come around, it’s a question of if he’s overpaid on his rookie deal.

I think Scoot’s comments are fair, but I think that MIN also declines.

Culver’s shooting is risky, but he’ll always be a good defender, and he is locked up for several years for MIN under team control. MIN faces three pretty big risks with Oladipo:

1. That he recovers from injury to the point where he was a star for one season (and doesn’t reinjure - quads are scary)
2. That he is willing to sign a reasonable deal next year.
3. That he is willing to sign a reasonable deal next year with MIN (rental)

MIN obviously has Towns and Russell locked up on longterm max deals, and even in the best situation, where Oladipo recovers and wants to stay in MIN, he’d be looking for a comparable longterm deal. He is the type of player I like, but there is just too much longterm risk down a one-way street. It’s true, Rosas likes stars, but he also likes making lots of moves and his background is in evaluating young talent. I think he was brought in because MIN needs to build value along the edges, rather than throw a Hail Mary.

[becorz]

What a fantastic tidbit of information. I hadn't ever really stopped to think about that, but it makes a lot of sense and explains some of the contracts they've signed players to. Ariza had a partial guarantee on a recent Kings deal as well. Joseph has one, etc..

I still don't like the idea. You're basically deferring the pain of paying extra to FA's. When you've got the cap space/tax flexibility that the Kings have had recently then just pay guys an extra $M to get them to sign if they're reluctant.

IMO partial guarantees like these used as a bonus only make sense if you're a win-now team that just can't afford to pay any more in the short-term.

Oh I hate them too. But I understand how a team like the Kings might feel they have no other choice to get guys. They might not have had the cap/tax room to pay them more on a shorter deal and went that route.

I definitely don't want Dallas handing any of those out.

The Kings have done this ALOT

Caron Butler - Picked up a player option rather than opt out of his contract and get paid a partial guaranteed year
Marco Belinelli - After being traded, waived for his partially guaranteed year
Aaron Afflalo - Waived for his partially guaranteed year
Zach Randolph - Picked up a player option rather than opt out of his contract and get paid a partial guaranteed year
Garrett Temple - Picked up a player option rather than opt out of his contract and get paid a partial guaranteed year
George Hill - After being traded, waived by Bucks for his partially guaranteed year
Nemanja Bjelica - Almost a lock to be kept around for the last year of his deal
Trevor Ariza - Traded to the Blazers, unsure if he will be kept around for his partially guaranteed year
Dwayne Deadmon - Likely to be cut for his partially guaranteed year
Corey Joseph - Likely to be cut for his partially guaranteed year

So, the Sacramento tax has helped the Kings sign some pretty mediocre players. But it has convinced players to come to Sacramento. I would consider Temple and Bjelica the only contracts that came out as winners for the Kings.

The only interesting trend I see is that the team was giving out player options with the partially guaranteed deals at the beginning but that has changed to the Kings just partially guaranteeing the last years of player's contracts. With the player options, the players were picking up their inflated salaries while now the Kings have the option to let people go.

Ken Catanella, the Kings salary cap expert, has been given a lot of credit, at least locally, for coming up with the idea to do these contracts and to push for descending contracts to help with future flexibility that is compromised by giving out partially guarantees. Not for nothing, he was the only member of the Kings front office who survived from the transition from Divac to McNair, so he must be doing something right.

[DeathLineup]

Just a simple FYI post.

Read on Twitter

?s=21

Read on Twitter

?s=21

[Scoot McGroot]

Did I see that free agency negotiations can start about a day before the draft this year? If so, and you’re extremely trusting of an agreement with a potential S&T free agent this year, maybe we could see a current year draft pick selected for a team and included.

[NYG]

What’s the weirdest thing that happens on draft night?

[HartfordWhalers]

The idea here is things you think about that don't really warrant a thread, but you might like to discuss if others have interest. If nobody but me sees a use for this I will let it die and not just be my personal blog I promise.

Unsticked for visibility, an going to rename this to include a general dumping ground for all rumors of questionable validity

[HartfordWhalers]

Nuggets want op 10... or can get someone at 22. Seems legit as news... https://amicohoopsnews.com/nuggets-trade-top-10-draft/

[Buzzard]

What’s the weirdest thing that happens on draft night?

GSW hangs on to #2. I don't think they are going to find the value they covet with it and the TPE. Wiggins is not going anywhere.

[Chicago-Bull-E]

Any of us could create a twitter handle, get a blue tick and then start talking about NBA rumours. We can pretend to have sources behind the scenes. The great thing about rumours is that they aren't actions, so you can't prove they are happening or not happening. If you never made a bold claim about something that will actively happen then you can coast along forever looking like an insider without a single source or connection. We know enough about basketball to make some educated guesses.

I always wanted to do this as a psychological experiment. I don't think it would be hard at all.

I get that, but in fairness, Russillo is at least a big time ESPN name from their radio game, and now the Ringer, though I just wanted to make sure that any credibility he has was merely from his association with ESPN and Scott Van Pelt, not from being earned.

If you are subtle you can leverage yourself into these positions to look credible by association.

So yeah, I don't know if he's lying but you have to question why this one guy would have info and come out with it if others have not.

We have a lot of this thought process on the Bulls board, about credibility of reporters, and I don't understand the logic behind it.

I think it's safe to assume 90-99% of discussions between NBA front offices go nowhere. Hopefully all front offices are doing due diligence on players around the league. Very few trades happen over the course of a year.

Now, those discussions likely NEVER reach an outside source until they're presumed dead, right? Why would anyone in the middle of a negotiation or discussion reach out to Brian Windhorst to leak information on ongoing discussions? That also makes no sense, as it could potentially jeopardize the deal.

If those 2 statements are true, any "rumor" that reaches Russilo or Windhorst are DOA by the time they get to Russilo/Windhorst. Holding these guys accountable in some "gotcha" moment is foolish from the outset. I don't doubt Russilo has sources, but they're likely a lot of agents and players that have heard their own names in discussions after the discussions have happened. Take the rumors as fun things to discuss, and nothing more. Internet message board posters complaining about reporters 'sources' comes off as so tacky. Its like, dude, who are you in the 1st place? I guess if it really aggravates you, ignore that part of the NBA.

What stinks is the guys like Russilo know this push back, and with-hold a lot of information from the public because they're tired of getting crucified from fans for not having some impeccable track record. It seems bizarre to me that he wakes up one day and goes "Which random rumor should I make up today?".

[Texas Chuck]

Now, those discussions likely NEVER reach an outside source until they're presumed dead, right? Why would anyone in the middle of a negotiation or discussion reach out to Brian Windhorst to leak information on ongoing discussions? That also makes no sense, as it could potentially jeopardize the deal.

I agree withsome of what you are getting at, but I think what people fail to think through is how many people are involved in this. It isn't one GM speaking with one other GM and that's it. They have 4 or 5 people in the FO having conversations on various levels. Multiple agents are likely in the mix along with some of their staff.

And a lot of these people are working their own agendas, trying to serve their own interests. Lowe talks all the time on his pod about how not only is he making calls trying to learn stuff but these FO guys and agents are calling him to pump him for info.


Most rumors don't happen because trades are hard. Look at our fictional deals here where many posters will fight for pages over a 2nd round pick or insist that this one particular veteran is just untouchable for our 23 win team or whatever. Plus I think budgets are often tighter than we think and where we see a deal that only adds a couple million in salary and keeps them below the tax might still be untenable for an owner. And do I think FO people will leak stuff to try and influence their owner or out of frustration? Of course.

Plus we know that Woj sells opinion pieces for information willing to do the bidding of agents and FO guys to get scoops. We know local guys are frequently mouthpieces rather than reporters--I mean pretty much everything Ramona Shelbourne "reports" is LA propaganda.

Rumors are fun, but most of them have no basis in anything and then the ones rooted in reality are still quite unlikely.

[HartfordWhalers]

If the whole Jrue to Atlanta thing doesn't pan out...

Phoenix could move away from Paul and instead offer a package for Jrue of:
Rubio Kaminsky #10
Oubre Kaminsky #10 (maybe one small filler depending on how and when it is done)

[Chicago-Bull-E]

Now, those discussions likely NEVER reach an outside source until they're presumed dead, right? Why would anyone in the middle of a negotiation or discussion reach out to Brian Windhorst to leak information on ongoing discussions? That also makes no sense, as it could potentially jeopardize the deal.

I agree withsome of what you are getting at, but I think what people fail to think through is how many people are involved in this. It isn't one GM speaking with one other GM and that's it. They have 4 or 5 people in the FO having conversations on various levels. Multiple agents are likely in the mix along with some of their staff.

And a lot of these people are working their own agendas, trying to serve their own interests. Lowe talks all the time on his pod about how not only is he making calls trying to learn stuff but these FO guys and agents are calling him to pump him for info.


Most rumors don't happen because trades are hard. Look at our fictional deals here where many posters will fight for pages over a 2nd round pick or insist that this one particular veteran is just untouchable for our 23 win team or whatever. Plus I think budgets are often tighter than we think and where we see a deal that only adds a couple million in salary and keeps them below the tax might still be untenable for an owner. And do I think FO people will leak stuff to try and influence their owner or out of frustration? Of course.

Plus we know that Woj sells opinion pieces for information willing to do the bidding of agents and FO guys to get scoops. We know local guys are frequently mouthpieces rather than reporters--I mean pretty much everything Ramona Shelbourne "reports" is LA propaganda.

Rumors are fun, but most of them have no basis in anything and then the ones rooted in reality are still quite unlikely.

Exactly. But there is almost a disdain for guys that report rumors, like they are just pulling ideas out of the asses and reporting them. I think that is almost never happening, especially with guys that are essentially their own brand, like Russilo. His reputation matters to what he does. He isn't a random twitter guy that if he gets called out, can just create a different handle.

I think that if a rumor is brought up by Russilo, it was almost CERTAINLY discussed by someone in the industry. I seem to be in the very small minority in that line of thought.

[Texas Chuck]

I think that if a rumor is brought up by Russilo, it was almost CERTAINLY discussed by someone in the industry. I seem to be in the very small minority in that line of thought.

I agree with you in general, but not specifically on Russilo. I find him to be a hack. That may be unfair and it may be tied to his close association with Simmons and that whole weird drunk on someone else's couch story from a few years back, but I have him as a guy willing to say things just to stir the pot.

[HartfordWhalers]

There are a few people that report everything they hear even when half of it is clearly as far away from reality as can be. And it is like taking every post on this site as credible. The goal of reporting rumors is to do an informational processing and relay not just noise, but to separate the meaningful noise. Did Russilo talk to someone who speculated Booker might want out? Probably. Is this actual close information to Booker or what he wants, or just a random person with no actual information guessing off what they have heard of people hearing of ......
There are enough people following the NBA and discussing every possible story that could happen that you can make a story out of anything if you don't care that it has little substance.

[Texas Chuck]

Not a rumor, but a general thought: I want good players on the Dallas Mavericks. Even if the team has to give something up to get them.