Kevin Love - Every team's best offer

Moderators: Texas Chuck, BullyKing, Andre Roberstan, loserX, Trader_Joe, Mamba4Goat, pacers33granger, MoneyTalks41890, HartfordWhalers

nodeal
Rookie
Posts: 1,136
And1: 216
Joined: Dec 16, 2009

Re: Kevin Love - Every team's best offer 

Post#321 » by nodeal » Wed May 21, 2014 11:52 am

AQuintus wrote:
mysticbb wrote:Or would be able to get a S&T deal done ...


1) Only if the Wolves play ball.
2) It's the same situation as trading him to a team now. If they don't have the capability of signing him outright, Minnesota would have the leverage to get some assets from them.


If love tells minnesota he's signing with team cap space unless hes S&T to team no cap space. What leverage do the wolves have? Theyll want to do the S&T and get something of modest value.
mysticbb
Banned User
Posts: 8,205
And1: 713
Joined: May 28, 2007
Contact:
   

Re: Kevin Love - Every team's best offer 

Post#322 » by mysticbb » Wed May 21, 2014 11:59 am

AQuintus wrote:1) Only if the Wolves play ball.
2) It's the same situation as trading him to a team now. If they don't have the capability of signing him outright, Minnesota would have the leverage to get some assets from them.


It is not about the Timberwolves here, but about Love's decision to sign an extension or not. ;)

You didn't say anything which I disagree with, just that it doesn't matter to point I made.

AQuintus wrote:Sure, it could make teams cautious, but based on rumors of team interest for Love, it hasn't.


That teams are interested in getting Love, isn't in disagreement with what I said. About every team would trade for Love, in fact, I don't see a single team not be willing to give up something to even just get Love for the next season, the question is just: How to determine that "something"? ;) Based on a 1yr contract with the hope he signs a new contract with them? Or based on the assumption Love signs an extension?

AQuintus wrote:It's important to remember that Dwight in LA was a unique situation with a uniquely indecisive individual.


How unique was that really? For example, James was about as indecisive as Howard back in 2010 ...

No, the similarity here with Love being on a 1yr contract and somehow trying to want to have a better team around him, while also likely having a list of preferred destination, is just very high, no matter whether you feel like Love would be a less indecisive individual than Howard.

AQuintus wrote:No, he probably won't, but as long as the team trading for him believes that he'll sign long term as a Bird rights Free Agent, I doubt it will matter much.


So, the fact that Love may leave will not change the value the other teams are willing to give up? Really?
User avatar
AQuintus
RealGM
Posts: 10,425
And1: 2,458
Joined: Jan 10, 2008
Location: But let me speak for the weak, I mean the rookies
   

Re: Kevin Love - Every team's best offer 

Post#323 » by AQuintus » Wed May 21, 2014 12:01 pm

nodeal wrote:If love tells minnesota he's signing with team cap space unless hes S&T to team no cap space.
What leverage do the wolves have?


None, but the team without cap space still doesn't get him. If the team without cap space wants Love, they'd have to trade assets to Minnesota.

Of course this is all hypothetical. In reality, the only team that's a playoff team that will actually have cap space is Houston, and unless I'm mistaken (and I very easily could be), they only have cap space if they jettison pretty much everyone on their roster except Harden and Dwight.

So, Love has the choice between getting traded to a playoff team with assets (like Boston would be with Rondo and Love) or signing with a stripped down Rockets team.
Image
User avatar
AQuintus
RealGM
Posts: 10,425
And1: 2,458
Joined: Jan 10, 2008
Location: But let me speak for the weak, I mean the rookies
   

Re: Kevin Love - Every team's best offer 

Post#324 » by AQuintus » Wed May 21, 2014 12:08 pm

mysticbb wrote:How unique was that really? For example, James was about as indecisive as Howard back in 2010 ...


Was he? I'd say it's pretty clear that he always intended to go to Miami. He, Bosh, and Wade were clearly planning on teaming up together for a long time.

No, the similarity here with Love being on a 1yr contract and somehow trying to want to have a better team around him, while also likely having a list of preferred destination, is just very high, no matter whether you feel like Love would be a less indecisive individual than Howard.


I'm sure that he will and does have a list of preferred destinations. I'm willing to bet that list includes teams that will offer quite a bit for him, like Boston or Chicago or GS. This isn't really saying much.

So, the fact that Love may leave will not change the value the other teams are willing to give up? Really?


I didn't say that. In fact I said that it would matter (just not much). If a team believes that their situation + extra money from the Bird rights contract is better than Houston's situation - minus most of their roster (to get the cap space for Love's max deal), then yes, I think that they'll still offer quite a bit.
Image
mysticbb
Banned User
Posts: 8,205
And1: 713
Joined: May 28, 2007
Contact:
   

Re: Kevin Love - Every team's best offer 

Post#325 » by mysticbb » Wed May 21, 2014 12:08 pm

AQuintus wrote:So, Love has the choice between getting traded to a playoff team with assets (like Boston would be with Rondo and Love) or signing with a stripped down Rockets team.


How would that be the choice for Love? And having to choose between getting to play with Harden+Howard or just Rondo (who else is on that team, which would make them a sure-fire playoff team?)? What would you choose?
mysticbb
Banned User
Posts: 8,205
And1: 713
Joined: May 28, 2007
Contact:
   

Re: Kevin Love - Every team's best offer 

Post#326 » by mysticbb » Wed May 21, 2014 12:14 pm

AQuintus wrote:Was he? I'd say it's pretty clear that he always intended to go to Miami. He, Bosh, and Wade were clearly planning on teaming up together for a long time.


Ok, when you base your argument on that assumption, than I argue that Howard planned for a longtime to join a team with another superstar. Are we even then?

I don't think that we can actually really evaluate how "indecisive" one or the other player is. When put in such unique situation in which basically every team would sign you as a player, it sure as hell will be a tough decision, for basically everyone.

AQuintus wrote:I'm sure that he will and does have a list of preferred destinations. I'm willing to bet that list includes teams that will offer quite a bit for him, like Boston or Chicago or GS. This isn't really saying much.


No, it isn't. Just that right now I argue that "how much they will offer" depends on the likelihood of being able to keep Love longterm. A team like the Bulls or Warriors are much more willing to offer future assets for Love, because they have already a team in place which is competitive, and even when they lose Love, they will likely still be competitive enough. But the Celtics?

AQuintus wrote:I didn't say that.


Ok, it sounded like that. Sorry, that I misunderstood your point then.

AQuintus wrote:In fact I said that it would matter (just not much). If a team believes that their situation + extra money from the Bird rights contract is better than Houston's situation - minus most of their roster (to get the cap space for Love's max deal), then yes, I think that they'll still offer quite a bit.


Ok. We probably just disagree here on the extend by how much that matters for the offer.
User avatar
AQuintus
RealGM
Posts: 10,425
And1: 2,458
Joined: Jan 10, 2008
Location: But let me speak for the weak, I mean the rookies
   

Re: Kevin Love - Every team's best offer 

Post#327 » by AQuintus » Wed May 21, 2014 12:16 pm

mysticbb wrote:How would that be the choice for Love?


Love either sticks with the team he's traded to (in this example, Boston) or signs with the only playoff team that will have the cap space to sign him (Houston). If another playoff team will also have max contract cap space in 2015, then please let me know.

just Rondo (who else is on that team, which would make them a sure-fire playoff team?)?


They're in the Eastern Conference. Toronto and Charlotte made the playoffs in the East this year. Beyond that, Boston would still likely have Green, Olynik, Bradley, the 17th pick (possibly), and one or both of the future Brooklyn picks (along with the draw of playing with Love and Rondo) to improve the team further.

What would you choose?


Tough to say. Harden, Love, and Dwight is a very good core, but I'm not convince it can win it all.
I think I'd go for the more prestigious team with the easier road to the playoffs, more avenues to improve, and an extra $25 million. That's Boston.
Image
User avatar
AQuintus
RealGM
Posts: 10,425
And1: 2,458
Joined: Jan 10, 2008
Location: But let me speak for the weak, I mean the rookies
   

Re: Kevin Love - Every team's best offer 

Post#328 » by AQuintus » Wed May 21, 2014 12:19 pm

mysticbb wrote:When put in such unique situation in which basically every team would sign you as a player


Again, not every team COULD sign Love as a free agent. That's important to remember.

On the other hand, every team COULD trade for Love (meaning that they're all capable of doing so). Not every team would, and the Timberwolves wouldn't trade with every team that would, but the possibilities in the trade market are still greater than they are in the free agent market.

Edit:

No, it isn't. Just that right now I argue that "how much they will offer" depends on the likelihood of being able to keep Love longterm.


Of course. I've never denied this. Edit 2: Except it's not an objective thing. Trade offers WILL NOT be based on the actual likelihood of being able to keep Love long term (which nobody actually knows), but rather the subjective belief on that likelihood.

If Danny Ainge believes that Love will stick around, even if it's not objectively true, he'll still offer up his trade assets.

A team like the Bulls or Warriors are much more willing to offer future assets for Love


You don't know this. Based on the rumors coming out, Boston is just as willing, if not more so, to offer future assets.
Image
The Rondo Show
Analyst
Posts: 3,588
And1: 327
Joined: Mar 16, 2006

Re: Kevin Love - Every team's best offer 

Post#329 » by The Rondo Show » Wed May 21, 2014 12:29 pm

mysticbb wrote:
AQuintus wrote:So, Love has the choice between getting traded to a playoff team with assets (like Boston would be with Rondo and Love) or signing with a stripped down Rockets team.


How would that be the choice for Love? And having to choose between getting to play with Harden+Howard or just Rondo (who else is on that team, which would make them a sure-fire playoff team?)? What would you choose?
If the Celtics did the deal I suggested, they'd have Love-Green-Bradley-Rondo with the following assets...
2015 picks:
Own 1st, LAC 1st, PHI 1st (lotto protected, becomes 2 2nds if PHI misses playoffs)
2016 picks:
Own 1st
2017 Picks:
Own 1st/unprotected Pick Swap option with Nets
2018 Picks:
Own 1st, Nets unprotected 1st

As well as a cheap young big in Olynyk coming off a pretty solid rookie season. They'd also have a gigantic $10.3M trade exception and a significant amount of non-guaranteed contract money in Bogans/Pressey/Johnson/Babb. They'd also have the full MLE. If they get Love, they aren't stopping there. Guys like Asik, Afflalo, Pau Gasol, etc. all become legit possibilities. Pierce could be back for the MLE, etc.

They'd absolutely become a sure fire playoff team.
Image
mysticbb
Banned User
Posts: 8,205
And1: 713
Joined: May 28, 2007
Contact:
   

Re: Kevin Love - Every team's best offer 

Post#330 » by mysticbb » Wed May 21, 2014 12:36 pm

AQuintus wrote:If another playoff team will also have max contract cap space in 2015, then please let me know.


The Lakers? The Heat probably? No idea, that obviously depends greatly on what happens in this summer as well as over the course of the next season and then ultimately what happens in the 2015 summer.

But my point is: Love has not the choice right now between getting traded to the Celtics or sign with the Rockets. He can essentially just influence to which team he gets traded. That is different than having really a choice here for a specific team.

AQuintus wrote:They're in the Eastern Conference. Toronto and Charlotte made the playoffs in the East this year. Beyond that, Boston would still likely have Green, Olynik, Bradley, the 17th pick (possibly), and one or both of the future Brooklyn picks (along with the draw of playing with Love and Rondo) to improve the team further.


So, you are essentially saying that the Timberwolves would agree to a trade in which only the #6, Sullinger and Bass are coming back? And you believe that would be the best offer? Honestly, I can't see that getting a deal done, because there will be better offers out there. And then we are talking about a gutted team, where your 3rd best player is a guy named Green who was traded for Perkins. Just think about that for a second ...

And if the Raptors can maintain Lowry, they will be ahead of the Celtics, even if they can get Love. Love is not going to net the Celtics an SRS improvement by more than 7 points, which would be needed. The Bobcats? Well, we will see what they can add, but right now the Celtics would probably fight with them for a playoffs spot. Then we have to see what the Cavs do, who have a chance to move into that range of the fringe playoff team as well. Don't see that Love+Rondo is making the Celtics a playoff team. It is basically more likely that the Timberwolves with their current roster (including Love) make the playoffs next season than the Celtics.

AQuintus wrote:Tough to say. Harden, Love, and Dwight is a very good core, but I'm not convince it can win it all.
I think I'd go for the more prestigious team with the easier road to the playoffs, more avenues to improve, and an extra $25 million. That's Boston.


There is no "extra $25m" for the Celtics. They have Wallace on the roster, keep that in mind. Then we add Green. Put the cap holds for Rondo and Love to that mix and all of the sudden they have basically no room left.

Easier road to the playoffs? Maybe, but the Rockets just made the playoffs in their first season with a Harden+Howard core in the much better WC, and didn't have much problem doing it. So, not quite sure, but I don't see an advantage for the Celtics here at all.
mysticbb
Banned User
Posts: 8,205
And1: 713
Joined: May 28, 2007
Contact:
   

Re: Kevin Love - Every team's best offer 

Post#331 » by mysticbb » Wed May 21, 2014 12:49 pm

The Rondo Show wrote:Guys like Asik, Afflalo, Pau Gasol, etc. all become legit possibilities.


I see Afflalo, but I have no idea how you want to convince the Rockets here to give up Asik. What incentive do you want to add in order to make it the best offer? And I hardly see the Celtics being able to sign Gasol. They have no capspace and the MLE will likely not get it done. Heck, if the Lakers will not get a desired player, they may probably sign Gasol to a 1yr contract which would outmatch a 3yr MLE contract.

The Rondo Show wrote:Pierce could be back for the MLE, etc.


He could, adding another player for the wing next to Green and Wallace. Sounds interesting ...

The Rondo Show wrote:They'd absolutely become a sure fire playoff team.


Yeah ... if you can get Love and every player just signs for a bargain with the Celtics ... while other teams are giving up better players for future 2nd rounders ... (or close to it, with the Clippers pick). I think you should evaluate the situation more realistically. The Celtics would need to add something to the offer you proposed, in order to get a deal for Love done. Then you should take into account, that the players will have a bit more value than your assumed value. And all of the sudden you are in the position which I said: fringe playoff team, fighting for the 7th or 8th spot in the East to lose in the 1st round (and that is under the assumption that Love adds about +5 to the team per game, which is more than his value he had now with the Timberwolves and pretty much on par of the value Durant and Paul have).

Celtics can make a pretty significant offer, but that comes with a huge risk of losing Love in 2015. If Ainge doesn't care about that risk, the Celtics have great chance of landing Love, just that this would not put the Celtics in the range you believe it does. Love is not Kevin Garnett, there is no player like Pierce or Allen on the current roster of the Celtics (even though you might want to believe Rondo is such player), and the Celtics still have no reasonable good center. That is not 2007 all over again ...
User avatar
AQuintus
RealGM
Posts: 10,425
And1: 2,458
Joined: Jan 10, 2008
Location: But let me speak for the weak, I mean the rookies
   

Re: Kevin Love - Every team's best offer 

Post#332 » by AQuintus » Wed May 21, 2014 12:53 pm

mysticbb wrote:There is no "extra $25m" for the Celtics.


You're not getting what I'm saying here. The extra $25 million is the difference between the contract a team with Love's Bird rights can sign him to vs the contract a team that doesn't have his Bird rights.

mysticbb wrote:The Lakers?


No. They're not going to be anywhere near a playoff team in the Western Conference.

But my point is: Love has not the choice right now between getting traded to the Celtics or sign with the Rockets.


We're not talking about now, we're talking about after Love gets traded. He'll have a choice between sticking with the team that trades for him (in our example, the Celtics) or leaving for a playoff team with cap space (pretty much just Houston based on what we know now).

He can essentially just influence to which team he gets traded. That is different than having really a choice here for a specific team.


I have no idea what this has to do with anything. Yeah, if Love doesn't demand to be traded to one specific team, then that actually helps my point. As long as he doesn't nix Boston, there's no reason to believe they won't attempt to trade for him using their assets.

Also, the way that Love influences to which team he gets traded is by "having really a choice here for a specific team [or teams]."

So, you are essentially saying that the Timberwolves would agree to a trade in which only the #6, Sullinger and Bass are coming back?


No. Personally, I'd like:

BOS GETS: J.Sullinger + #6(A.Gordon) + J.Anthony + B.Bass
MIN GETS: K.Love + C.Budinger

BOS GETS: K.Martin
MIN GETS: TPE + 2016 BKN 1st

Boston would then still have Green, Bradley, Martin, Budinger, Olynik, Wallace, the 17th pick, their picks the next couple of years, Brooklyn's 2018 1st, and some other 1sts to work with. Even with giving Minnesota a quality deal, they still have plenty of assets to work with.

And you believe that would be the best offer?


It's the best one I've seen.

Honestly, I can't see that getting a deal done, because there will be better offers out there.


Such as? Honestly, something tells me that your objections to the idea that Boston can or will try to get Love has more to do with you being a Bulls fan than anything.

And then we are talking about a gutted team, where your 3rd best player is a guy named Green who was traded for Perkins.


:roll: Come on. You're better than this.

And if the Raptors can maintain Lowry, they will be ahead of the Celtics, even if they can get Love. Love is not going to net the Celtics an SRS improvement by more than 7 points, which would be needed.


Love wouldn't be the only addition or improvement.

The Bobcats? Well, we will see what they can add,


So they can add players but Boston apparently can't?

but right now the Celtics would probably fight with them for a playoffs spot. Then we have to see what the Cavs do, who have a chance to move into that range of the fringe playoff team as well. Don't see that Love+Rondo is making the Celtics a playoff team. It is basically more likely that the Timberwolves with their current roster (including Love) make the playoffs next season than the Celtics.


More wishful thinking from the Bulls fan.
Image
The Rondo Show
Analyst
Posts: 3,588
And1: 327
Joined: Mar 16, 2006

Re: Kevin Love - Every team's best offer 

Post#333 » by The Rondo Show » Wed May 21, 2014 1:00 pm

mysticbb wrote:
The Rondo Show wrote:Guys like Asik, Afflalo, Pau Gasol, etc. all become legit possibilities.


I see Afflalo, but I have no idea how you want to convince the Rockets here to give up Asik. What incentive do you want to add in order to make it the best offer? And I hardly see the Celtics being able to sign Gasol. They have no capspace and the MLE will likely not get it done. Heck, if the Lakers will not get a desired player, they may probably sign Gasol to a 1yr contract which would outmatch a 3yr MLE contract.

The Rondo Show wrote:Pierce could be back for the MLE, etc.


He could, adding another player for the wing next to Green and Wallace. Sounds interesting ...

The Rondo Show wrote:They'd absolutely become a sure fire playoff team.


Yeah ... if you can get Love and every player just signs for a bargain with the Celtics ... while other teams are giving up better players for future 2nd rounders ... (or close to it, with the Clippers pick). I think you should evaluate the situation more realistically. The Celtics would need to add something to the offer you proposed, in order to get a deal for Love done. Then you should take into account, that the players will have a bit more value than your assumed value. And all of the sudden you are in the position which I said: fringe playoff team, fighting for the 7th or 8th spot in the East to lose in the 1st round (and that is under the assumption that Love adds about +5 to the team per game, which is more than his value he had now with the Timberwolves and pretty much on par of the value Durant and Paul have).

Celtics can make a pretty significant offer, but that comes with a huge risk of losing Love in 2015. If Ainge doesn't care about that risk, the Celtics have great chance of landing Love, just that this would not put the Celtics in the range you believe it does. Love is not Kevin Garnett, there is no player like Pierce or Allen on the current roster of the Celtics (even though you might want to believe Rondo is such player), and the Celtics still have no reasonable good center. That is not 2007 all over again ...
You must not be paying very close attention if you have no idea how to convince the Rockets to give up Asik. It's pretty common knowledge he's been on trade market dating back to December, and this off-season he could be just flat out cap dumped along with Lin to create room for 'Melo. He's a backup center who the Rockets owe $15M in cash (despite an $8.3M cap hit) to and is a UFA that is a lock to leave at the end of the year, if he's not dealt before then. I mean, of all the guys I mentioned he's the most likely and easiest target to get.

Also, when's the last time you saw Gerald Wallace play basketball? That guy is terrible and has been terrible for a couple years now. Pierce taking his minutes as a backup wing would be nothing but great news for the Celtics.

I'd call Gasol the biggest long shot, but if he's not going back to the Lakers, the Celtics could offer him $10.3M using their trade exception and send the Lakers a TE and a pick for someone they'd be losing for nothing. If he stays with Lakers, he's obviously not an option. You don't need cap space when you have a giant trade exception.

So between the $10.3M TE and the non-guaranteed contracts of Bogans/Pressey/Babb/Johnson, the Celtics don't need cap space. Both of those things essentially work as cap space because they can be used in S&T's and trades without asking the other team to take on a dime of money.

You don't seem to have a real good grasp on the Celtics current situation at all.
Image
User avatar
BleedGreen1989
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,023
And1: 3,904
Joined: May 18, 2013

Re: Kevin Love - Every team's best offer 

Post#334 » by BleedGreen1989 » Wed May 21, 2014 1:05 pm

Is Bulls fan just arguing against the Celtics situation because he wants the Bulls to trade for Love?
User avatar
AQuintus
RealGM
Posts: 10,425
And1: 2,458
Joined: Jan 10, 2008
Location: But let me speak for the weak, I mean the rookies
   

Re: Kevin Love - Every team's best offer 

Post#335 » by AQuintus » Wed May 21, 2014 1:07 pm

BleedGreen1989 wrote:Is Bulls fan just arguing against the Celtics situation because he wants the Bulls to trade for Love?


This is the conclusion I've come to.
Image
mysticbb
Banned User
Posts: 8,205
And1: 713
Joined: May 28, 2007
Contact:
   

Re: Kevin Love - Every team's best offer 

Post#336 » by mysticbb » Wed May 21, 2014 1:29 pm

The Rondo Show wrote:You must not be paying very close attention if you have no idea how to convince the Rockets to give up Asik.


Oh boy, you haven't followed much of the conversation in concern to Asik's value around here, have you? Otherwise you would have noticed that I constantly posted about the value of Asik.

What you have missed here is that there is actually a market for Asik, especially for teams wanting to use capspace in the summer. There is much more competition for Asik than you might realise. Sure, the Celtics can use the Pierce TPE and future assets to outbid others. That is a way, which makes it likely for them to acquire Asik. Nonetheless, I want to see the Celtics being able to get Love without using that TPE for an undesired contract by the Timberwolves ...

My point is not, that the Celtics don't have assets to pull off a Love trade. They have! Just that the competition they are up against, would force them to use more future assets than you proposed, as well as making it really tough to put a competent roster around Love. You can only use an assets once, not twice or three times, like your post about a possible Celtics team suggests. ;)

The Rondo Show wrote:Also, when's the last time you saw Gerald Wallace play basketball? That guy is terrible and has been terrible for a couple years now.


And yet, he is still on the payroll for next season and the season after ... that is the whole point here. ;)

The Rondo Show wrote:Pierce taking his minutes as a backup wing would be nothing but great news for the Celtics.


I agree, just that Wallace would still be on the payroll, making the Celtics less flexible to improve the team. Then you add Pierce's MLE money to that and you have essentially $25m locked up for the 2015 summer for Pierce, Wallace and Green. We add the capholds for Love and Rondo and the Celtics are at the salary cap already. And that is even without taking the money for Bradley and whoever else would be on the roster into account.

The Rondo Show wrote:I'd call Gasol the biggest long shot, but if he's not going back to the Lakers, the Celtics could offer him $10.3M using their trade exception and send the Lakers a TE and a pick for someone they'd be losing for nothing.


Yes, that is possible, just that you can use that TPE only once ...

The Rondo Show wrote:If he stays with Lakers, he's obviously not an option. You don't need cap space when you have a giant trade exception.


How often was such a "giant" TPE used to get a free agent? Just asking ... And you compete with all the capspace teams here. Also, you wanted to use the TPE for Asik or in the offer to the Timberwolves already, so ...

The Rondo Show wrote:So between the $10.3M TE and the non-guaranteed contracts of Bogans/Pressey/Babb/Johnson, the Celtics don't need cap space. Both of those things essentially work as cap space because they can be used in S&T's and trades without asking the other team to take on a dime of money.


They can, I completely agree. But for that you would again need to invest future assets in order to get a better player, because I can hardly see a team willing to give up a better player just for the sake of a trade. That would be the point.

I did not say that the Celtics can't field any kind of team, but that they have to sacrifice future assets in order to do that. And if that mission fails, they are left with ?

The Rondo Show wrote:You don't seem to have a real good grasp on the Celtics current situation at all.


I actually have, just that the Celtics have each of those assets only one time, not a couple of times like your post suggested.
mysticbb
Banned User
Posts: 8,205
And1: 713
Joined: May 28, 2007
Contact:
   

Re: Kevin Love - Every team's best offer 

Post#337 » by mysticbb » Wed May 21, 2014 1:32 pm

BleedGreen1989 wrote:Is Bulls fan just arguing against the Celtics situation because he wants the Bulls to trade for Love?


I actually said that the Cavs can make the best offer for Love after winning the lottery, so, no, I don't argue, because I would like to see Love on the Bulls (which is obviously true and likely be true for basically all fans of every team), but because the assumption is not sound that the Celtics would simply throw the kitchen sink at the Timberwolves for Love, while then be able to have team around Love+Rondo which would be really, really competitive in order to ensure that Love is more likely to stay than to leave. Quite a difference, I would say ...

If a Bulls fan would argue that in an optimal case the Bulls get Love and maybe Anthony as well, I would argue in the same fashion that it is highly unlikely that this will happen, because in a trade for Love, the Bulls would need to use assets, which in turn they would need to get Anthony too. Maybe that helps to put things into perspective here.
The Rondo Show
Analyst
Posts: 3,588
And1: 327
Joined: Mar 16, 2006

Re: Kevin Love - Every team's best offer 

Post#338 » by The Rondo Show » Wed May 21, 2014 1:46 pm

mysticbb wrote:
The Rondo Show wrote:You must not be paying very close attention if you have no idea how to convince the Rockets to give up Asik.


Oh boy, you haven't followed much of the conversation in concern to Asik's value around here, have you? Otherwise you would have noticed that I constantly posted about the value of Asik.

What you have missed here is that there is actually a market for Asik, especially for teams wanting to use capspace in the summer. There is much more competition for Asik than you might realise. Sure, the Celtics can use the Pierce TPE and future assets to outbid others. That is a way, which makes it likely for them to acquire Asik. Nonetheless, I want to see the Celtics being able to get Love without using that TPE for an undesired contract by the Timberwolves ...

My point is not, that the Celtics don't have assets to pull off a Love trade. They have! Just that the competition they are up against, would force them to use more future assets than you proposed, as well as making it really tough to put a competent roster around Love. You can only use an assets once, not twice or three times, like your post about a possible Celtics team suggests. ;)

The Rondo Show wrote:Also, when's the last time you saw Gerald Wallace play basketball? That guy is terrible and has been terrible for a couple years now.


And yet, he is still on the payroll for next season and the season after ... that is the whole point here. ;)

The Rondo Show wrote:Pierce taking his minutes as a backup wing would be nothing but great news for the Celtics.


I agree, just that Wallace would still be on the payroll, making the Celtics less flexible to improve the team. Then you add Pierce's MLE money to that and you have essentially $25m locked up for the 2015 summer for Pierce, Wallace and Green. We add the capholds for Love and Rondo and the Celtics are at the salary cap already. And that is even taking the money for Bradley and whoever else would be on the roster into account.

The Rondo Show wrote:I'd call Gasol the biggest long shot, but if he's not going back to the Lakers, the Celtics could offer him $10.3M using their trade exception and send the Lakers a TE and a pick for someone they'd be losing for nothing.


Yes, that is possible, just that you can use that TPE only once ...

The Rondo Show wrote:If he stays with Lakers, he's obviously not an option. You don't need cap space when you have a giant trade exception.


How often was such a "giant" TPE used to get a free agent? Just asking ... And you compete with all the capspace teams here. Also, you wanted to use the TPE for Asik or in the offer to the Timberwolves already, so ...

The Rondo Show wrote:So between the $10.3M TE and the non-guaranteed contracts of Bogans/Pressey/Babb/Johnson, the Celtics don't need cap space. Both of those things essentially work as cap space because they can be used in S&T's and trades without asking the other team to take on a dime of money.


They can, I completely agree. But for that you would again need to invest future assets in order to get a better player, because I can hardly see a team willing to give up a better player just for the sake of a trade. That would be the point.

I did not say that the Celtics can't field any kind of team, but that they have to sacrifice future assets in order to do that. And if that mission fails, they are left with ?

The Rondo Show wrote:You don't seem to have a real good grasp on the Celtics current situation at all.


I actually have, just that the Celtics have each of those assets only one time, not a couple of times like your post suggested.
Uh, nowhere did I use the assets multiple times in my post. YOU were the one who had the TE going to the Wolves, I specifically said the #6+#17+BKN unprotected '16 1st+Sullinger+Expirings was hefty enough and that the only player they would consider using it on was a pretty good player/fit next to Rondo like Kevin Martin. Plenty of Wolves fans seem fine with the value of that offer, too, unless they can get a truly incredible deal like the #1 overall pick.

We'll see just how big that market for Asik is. It was so big last year that with the Rockets looking to deal him they couldn't pull the trigger on a deal because no one was offering that much. Their leverage and his value has not increased since then considering he's owed $15M in cash now, is a year/half year closer to FA. Don't hold your breath on him returning some big package.

The Celtics could also use the non-guaranteed contracts of Bogans+Pressey+Babb+Johnson to match salary for Asik, doesn't have to be the $10.3M TE. And if they use those non-guaranteed contracts for Asik, they have a $10.3M TE left over to pursue a guy like Gasol or whoever else. And yes, they would have to include picks/assets to close those deals, so it's a good thing that I just told you they'd have 7 1st rounders (or 6 and 2 2nds coming from PHI more likely) over 4 years from 2014-2018 along with a cheap young big who had a solid rookie year in Olynyk. Not an issue at all. It doesn't matter that they are late (although we'll see on the Nets one, that franchise is no lock to be good down the line) considering Gasol would be a S&T and the Rockets have remarkably little leverage in the Asik talks.

Also, unlike the Bulls, our owner isn't afraid of the luxury tax remotely. Wyc Grousbeck is willing to spend whatever it takes to win. So Wallace's contract really isn't that big of a factor. In fact, it'll become a big expiring contract next off-season and the Celtics can look to include it in a trade. Or they can stretch provision him this year to shave $6M off his cap number and stay comfortably under the $81M hard cap for teams that use the full MLE or do S&T's.
Image
The Rondo Show
Analyst
Posts: 3,588
And1: 327
Joined: Mar 16, 2006

Re: Kevin Love - Every team's best offer 

Post#339 » by The Rondo Show » Wed May 21, 2014 1:59 pm

Bottom line is you are vastly underrating what the Celtics could do after a Love trade like I proposed and Wolves fans seem fine with (if Love is dealt and not for that Cavs #1 overall)

Bogans+Pressey+Johnson+Babb (all immediately waived)+Celtics unprotected 15 1st (which you should find extra valuable considering you are convinced they are a bubble playoff team if healthy) for Asik.

TE+PHI lotto protected 15 1st for Gasol in a S&T if Lakers/Gasol decide to part ways. Doubt Gasol gets more than $10.3M at this stage, either. We can overpay him in years if need be, too.

Bradley+Olynyk+LAC 15 1st for Afflalo. Can throw in our 17 1st that can be swapped with Nets (unprotected) if you feel this is an underpayment.

Sign Pierce with the MLE

Stretch provision on Wallace to stay under the hard cap.

And if you see Gasol or Asik as an underpayment, throw in the Nets 18 1st. Celtics have PLENTY of assets (both in picks and TE's/non guaranteed deals), Mystic.

Asik
Love
Green
Afflalo
Rondo

Gasol
Pierce
Cheap combo guard signing, Jimmer? Bayless?

Anyways, I'm done arguing with you. If you don't think the Celtics can build a sure fire playoff team around Love and Rondo, that's your right. The above looks like a damn good team to me and I don't think I screwed any team over in the process. We'll just have to agree to disagree.
Image
mysticbb
Banned User
Posts: 8,205
And1: 713
Joined: May 28, 2007
Contact:
   

Re: Kevin Love - Every team's best offer 

Post#340 » by mysticbb » Wed May 21, 2014 2:43 pm

The Rondo Show wrote:Uh, nowhere did I use the assets multiple times in my post.


In order to fill out the roster, I read that much different.

The Rondo Show wrote:Plenty of Wolves fans seem fine with the value of that offer, too, unless they can get a truly incredible deal like the #1 overall pick.


What Timberwolves fans might be "fine with" and what gets a deal done in reality, might look quite differently. I think the Celtics offer you proposed will not get it done.

The Rondo Show wrote:It was so big last year that with the Rockets looking to deal him they couldn't pull the trigger on a deal because no one was offering that much.


Uh, that is quite a misleading statement. Teams offered something, but nothing which was as valuable to the Rockets than a 7ft center. Getting better value than Asik from another team was the issue here. I'm pretty sure, if the Rockets would have been content with capspace plus pick, a deal would have been reached already. But that was not what the Rockets looked for. And they likely also only trade Asik, if they can add the necessary upgrade for a different position. Just trading him for the sake of trading him will also not happen.

The Rondo Show wrote:The Celtics could also use the non-guaranteed contracts of Bogans+Pressey+Babb+Johnson to match salary for Asik, doesn't have to be the $10.3M TE.


You would need to add one of the minimum unguaranteed contracts, because otherwise you can't match the salary within the 125% + 100k rule. Bass+Anthony+Sullinger would equate to the ability to take on $14.62m, Love gets 14.69. Though, Babb would get it done. So, a 4 for 1 deal would put the Celtics at 12 players on the roster and would mean they need to get at least one more player back to fulfill the required roster size.

Which then, in turn means, they come close to their hard cap at APRON, therefore, your suggested ability to take on a bigger an unwanted contract from the Timberwolves is impossible, if Bogans unguaranteed contract isn't used for that.

Again, you are arguing under the assumption that your proposed deal for Love is taken and then run with it. I argue, that it is unlikely that the offer is enough to get Love. Then you argue under the assumption that each other team will just want the Celtics' assets while giving up better players. Sure, if all of that goes down, the Celtics are in an incredible good position, I just don't see that this is overall reasonable.

Return to Trades and Transactions