RealGM TnT Board Top 25 Most Valuable Players - Vote for #12

[Village Idiot]

V: Lillard
N: Bosh

[Mykhyn]

Could just make them 12/13 lol. I'm voting for Lillard next anyway

[Knosh]

V Drummond. Sorry boys you can't sell me on Blake yet.
N TP

Spoiler:

Per game stats: 22ppg, 10.3 rpg, 3.2apg. 21.7 PER 57.3% TS. 16th highest per in the league, 14th highest ws/48 in the league.
Age: 24.

How bad do you think his defense is that he is not already massively underrated?

NBA has Opponent fga fgm and fg% at rim:
Andre Drummond (DET) 3.9 8.1 48.3%
Chris Bosh (MIA) 3.7 6.9 53.9%
Marc Gasol (MEM) 3.5 6.5 54.1%
Blake Griffin (LAC) 3.2 6.0 54.2%
Kevin Love (MIN) 5.2 8.9 58.5%

Which maybe looks like it makes a case for Drummond being an outlier. And Love. But at the rim is just a (small) area of defense. We don't talk about Deandre Jordan being an offensive juggernaut for the same reason.

82games has overall opponent per at pf 16.7 for Griffin.
82games has overall opponent per at center 20.0 for Drummond

Synnergy Defensive stats:
Griffin: Overall .89 ppp (357 attempts), post ups .81 (113 attempts), spot ups .91 ppp (132 attempts)
Drummond: Overall .86 ppp (257 attempts) post ups .80 (109 attempts), spot ups .93 ppp (68 attempts)

So, very similar numbers.

Last year's RAPM:
Blake Griffin 3.1 Off 1.4 Def 4.5 Total (18th highest in the league)
Andre Drummond 0.6 Off 1.3 Def 1.9 Total

Yes, RAPM had Griffin having more of a defensive impact.

General On/Off's this year:
Griffin:
Offense: Pts per 100 Poss.
111.0 On 108.2 Off +2.8 Net
Defense: Pts per 100 Poss.
104.8 On 105.9 Off -1.1 Net
Points per 100 Possessions
+6.2 On, +2.3 Off, +3.9 Net

Drummond:
Offense: Pts per 100 Poss.
105.3 On, 107.6 Off -2.3 Net
Defense: Pts per 100 Poss.
111.0 On, 104.6 Off, +6.4 Net
Net Points per 100 Possessions
-5.7 On, +3.0 Off, -8.7 Net

Yes, the defense is way worse with Drummond on the court. But even if you blame that on some sort of coaching boondoggle, what you see is the impact of Drummond on defense is found to not exist on aggregate to a significant degree, despite his highlight ability -- not in synergy stats, not in rapm.

And Blake is just massively more of an impact player. And signed for 5 years.

I get that everyone likes to be stat savvy and not just fall for flash. But that is just what is happening with Drummond. And the opposite is happening with Blake, where his impact is being ignored or at the very least massively under-rated.

Or in short, you are wrong and will rethink your position.

PER and RAPM are garbage.

Imho WS/48 overrates guys like Griffin, but Blake has a slight edge there I'll give you that.

Drummond isn't an outlier in opponent FG% at rim. Plenty of guys have better numbers. Griffin just isn't very good there.

opponent PER is based on PER (which is garbage) and assumes Griffin is actually on the opposing PF and Drummond on the opposing C. I'm not sure that's actually the case cause I don't watch them enough.

Synergy defensive stats: Again, is there any switching going on with matchups? If DeAndre gets the tougher match-up for example, those numbers are skewed as well.

On/Off court: I mean come on. Clippers big man of the bench are their biggest flaw, while Detroit is stacked with Smith and Monroe as well.

Or in short, I'm not buying it.

[HartfordWhalers]

V Drummond. Sorry boys you can't sell me on Blake yet.
N TP

Spoiler:

Per game stats: 22ppg, 10.3 rpg, 3.2apg. 21.7 PER 57.3% TS. 16th highest per in the league, 14th highest ws/48 in the league.
Age: 24.

How bad do you think his defense is that he is not already massively underrated?

NBA has Opponent fga fgm and fg% at rim:
Andre Drummond (DET) 3.9 8.1 48.3%
Chris Bosh (MIA) 3.7 6.9 53.9%
Marc Gasol (MEM) 3.5 6.5 54.1%
Blake Griffin (LAC) 3.2 6.0 54.2%
Kevin Love (MIN) 5.2 8.9 58.5%

Which maybe looks like it makes a case for Drummond being an outlier. And Love. But at the rim is just a (small) area of defense. We don't talk about Deandre Jordan being an offensive juggernaut for the same reason.

82games has overall opponent per at pf 16.7 for Griffin.
82games has overall opponent per at center 20.0 for Drummond

Synnergy Defensive stats:
Griffin: Overall .89 ppp (357 attempts), post ups .81 (113 attempts), spot ups .91 ppp (132 attempts)
Drummond: Overall .86 ppp (257 attempts) post ups .80 (109 attempts), spot ups .93 ppp (68 attempts)

So, very similar numbers.

Last year's RAPM:
Blake Griffin 3.1 Off 1.4 Def 4.5 Total (18th highest in the league)
Andre Drummond 0.6 Off 1.3 Def 1.9 Total

Yes, RAPM had Griffin having more of a defensive impact.

General On/Off's this year:
Griffin:
Offense: Pts per 100 Poss.
111.0 On 108.2 Off +2.8 Net
Defense: Pts per 100 Poss.
104.8 On 105.9 Off -1.1 Net
Points per 100 Possessions
+6.2 On, +2.3 Off, +3.9 Net

Drummond:
Offense: Pts per 100 Poss.
105.3 On, 107.6 Off -2.3 Net
Defense: Pts per 100 Poss.
111.0 On, 104.6 Off, +6.4 Net
Net Points per 100 Possessions
-5.7 On, +3.0 Off, -8.7 Net

Yes, the defense is way worse with Drummond on the court. But even if you blame that on some sort of coaching boondoggle, what you see is the impact of Drummond on defense is found to not exist on aggregate to a significant degree, despite his highlight ability -- not in synergy stats, not in rapm.

And Blake is just massively more of an impact player. And signed for 5 years.

I get that everyone likes to be stat savvy and not just fall for flash. But that is just what is happening with Drummond. And the opposite is happening with Blake, where his impact is being ignored or at the very least massively under-rated.

Or in short, you are wrong and will rethink your position.

PER and RAPM are garbage.

Imho WS/48 overrates guys like Griffin, but Blake has a slight edge there I'll give you that.

Drummond isn't an outlier in opponent FG% at rim. Plenty of guys have better numbers. Griffin just isn't very good there.

opponent PER is based on PER (which is garbage) and assumes Griffin is actually on the opposing PF and Drummond on the opposing C. I'm not sure that's actually the case cause I don't watch them enough.

Synergy defensive stats: Again, is there any switching going on with matchups? If DeAndre gets the tougher match-up for example, those numbers are skewed as well.

On/Off court: I mean come on. Clippers big man of the bench are their biggest flaw, while Detroit is stacked with Smith and Monroe as well.

Or in short, I'm not buying it.

Neither switch much. So you have one that puts up massive offensive numbers and decent defensive ones.
ANd one guy that gets massively hyped for being a physical man child like Deandre Jordan is, and pretty much any way you cut it doesn't have much more of an impact than him.

Drummond's defensive stats are nothing special across the board. Does RAPM have some issues? Sure (highly depends on how a player is used). Is it entirely junk? No. Does Synnergy have some issues? Absolutely (the jump shooting category and in general doesn't handle switching team components well) Is it entirely junk across the board? No. Does opponent per have some issues? Sure (if you are on a bad team you will get hurt relatively by far). Is it entirely junk across the baord? No.

All of those find the actual impact of Drummond is not that big. And all have different issues. So, is it really that all 3 separately cannot handle Drummond's defensive impact that despite having no semblance of an offensive game at all, he is top 10 trade value in the entire league because of? Or is it that Drummond's impact just isn't that big at all, and that he is the reverse Asik? Asik looks unspectular and yet had a massive impact on his own defense and his team's defense. In contrast, Drummond looks spectacular, and yet when you go under the hood there just isn't that impact at all.

[Mykhyn]

Neither switch much. So you have one that puts up massive offensive numbers and decent defensive ones.
ANd one guy that gets massively hyped for being a physical man child like Deandre Jordan is, and pretty much any way you cut it doesn't have much more of an impact than him.

Drummond's defensive stats are nothing special across the board. Does RAPM have some issues? Sure (highly depends on how a player is used). Is it entirely junk? No. Does Synnergy have some issues? Absolutely (the jump shooting category and in general doesn't handle switching team components well) Is it entirely junk across the board? No. Does opponent per have some issues? Sure (if you are on a bad team you will get hurt relatively by far). Is it entirely junk across the baord? No.

All of those find the actual impact of Drummond is not that big. And all have different issues. So, is it really that all 3 separately cannot handle Drummond's defensive impact that despite having no semblance of an offensive game at all, he is top 10 trade value in the entire league because of? Or is it that Drummond's impact just isn't that big at all, and that he is the reverse Asik? Asik looks unspectular and yet had a massive impact on his own defense and his team's defense. In contrast, Drummond looks spectacular, and yet when you go under the hood there just isn't that impact at all.

I think RAPM is bad for this argument, Drummond has competent backups while Blake doesn't.

I still support Drummond over Blake because I think Drummond does his job a lot better and fits on championship teams better. I see blake as a Melo type player. Good player but not a winner.

[HartfordWhalers]

Neither switch much. So you have one that puts up massive offensive numbers and decent defensive ones.
ANd one guy that gets massively hyped for being a physical man child like Deandre Jordan is, and pretty much any way you cut it doesn't have much more of an impact than him.

Drummond's defensive stats are nothing special across the board. Does RAPM have some issues? Sure (highly depends on how a player is used). Is it entirely junk? No. Does Synnergy have some issues? Absolutely (the jump shooting category and in general doesn't handle switching team components well) Is it entirely junk across the board? No. Does opponent per have some issues? Sure (if you are on a bad team you will get hurt relatively by far). Is it entirely junk across the baord? No.

All of those find the actual impact of Drummond is not that big. And all have different issues. So, is it really that all 3 separately cannot handle Drummond's defensive impact that despite having no semblance of an offensive game at all, he is top 10 trade value in the entire league because of? Or is it that Drummond's impact just isn't that big at all, and that he is the reverse Asik? Asik looks unspectular and yet had a massive impact on his own defense and his team's defense. In contrast, Drummond looks spectacular, and yet when you go under the hood there just isn't that impact at all.

I think RAPM is bad for this argument, Drummond has competent backups while Blake doesn't.

I still support Drummond over Blake because I think Drummond does his job a lot better and fits on championship teams better. I see blake as a Melo type player. Good player but not a winner.

RAPM tries to adjust for that (where as simple on off's don't). So its not a great dismissal of RAPM, but also it doesn;t explain why all other defensive stats also don't find Drummond as that big of a difference maker.

It is a little redundant, but Drummond is not top 20 in Defensive win shares. He barely makes it into top 10 in block percentage, which is his one stand out stat on that side (besides rebounding).

So, the stats that find Drummond unspectatular are:
Defensive win shares and Defensive rating.
On off -- and Adjusted on offs such as RAPM
Synnergy stats
Opponent stats per 82games

He doesn't hit a single one.

[Knosh]

Neither switch much.

Ok, so I'm fine with looking at those synergy numbers. Still don't like opponent's PER, simply cause it's PER.

Does RAPM have some issues? Sure (highly depends on how a player is used). Is it entirely junk? No.

I actually do think it is entirely junk. Correct me if I'm wrong, but for all the +/- stuff I have seen the standard error is completly out of control and thus the coefficients are insignificant.

[Mykhyn]

RAPM tries to adjust for that (where as simple on off's don't). So its not a great dismissal of RAPM, but also it doesn;t explain why all other defensive stats also don't find Drummond as that big of a difference maker.

It is a little redundant, but Drummond is not top 20 in Defensive win shares. He barely makes it into top 10 in block percentage, which is his one stand out stat on that side (besides rebounding).

So, the stats that find Drummond unspectatular are:
Defensive win shares and Defensive rating.
On off -- and Adjusted on offs such as RAPM
Synnergy stats
Opponent stats per 82games

He doesn't hit a single one.

He might not rank at the top yet, but watching him its clear he has the potential to be near the top for years and years to come. He is also big enough to clog up the lane by just standing in it. Combine all that with his contract and that he is under team control for years to come I don't think its close tbh(to griffin).

Griffin just has never struck me as a guy that plays winning basketball. Hard for me to vote someone into high trade value if I don't think a team can win with them.

Now a team like the bucks would definitely pay more for Griffin than Drummond.

[HartfordWhalers]

Neither switch much.

Ok, so I'm fine with looking at those synergy numbers. Still don't like opponent's PER, simply cause it's PER.

Does RAPM have some issues? Sure (highly depends on how a player is used). Is it entirely junk? No.

I actually do think it is entirely junk. Correct me if I'm wrong, but for all the +/- stuff I have seen the standard error is completly out of control and thus the coefficients are insignificant.

I think that definitely overstates it a bunch. But best to ask on the stats forum, as I will say its not my favorite at all, and I will agree with you more than is probably fair.

However, I still like it very much as 1 of several references because you basically have: drating and on offs (including rapm) for team effects, and synnergy and 82games for direct opponent stuff. Some players can be great at one and terrible at the other and thus one set of stats will create a bad picture of the defender. Case in point, Bargs often has good synnergy stats and terrible stats for any team related variable. And when that paper came out last Sloan, Bargs had great defense when within 3 feet of a shooter; but was within 3 feet of a shooter almost never.

[PDXKnight]

V: Irving
N: Lillard

[CB-Blazer]

V: Lillard
N: TP

[Starkiller]

V: Cousins
N: Lance Stephenson

[HartfordWhalers]

V: Cousins
N: Lance Stephenson

Voting is over and Lance is an unrestricted free agent in half a season. You really think a half season before he is unrestricted makes him top 25 in the league in trade value?

[Starkiller]

V: Cousins
N: Lance Stephenson

Voting is over and Lance is an unrestricted free agent in half a season. You really think a half season before he is unrestricted makes him top 25 in the league in trade value?

I miss understood the thread.

[NaturalBuns]

V: Blake Griffin
N:kawhi leonard

Why Kawhi Leonard?
He went from underrated
to blowing up in NBA finals
to becoming underrated again this year
He might not put up superstar stats (Yet) But I think his Trade value is extremely high. Hes one of those guys that will just be successful for along time.

[old rem]

RAPM tries to adjust for that (where as simple on off's don't). So its not a great dismissal of RAPM, but also it doesn;t explain why all other defensive stats also don't find Drummond as that big of a difference maker.

It is a little redundant, but Drummond is not top 20 in Defensive win shares. He barely makes it into top 10 in block percentage, which is his one stand out stat on that side (besides rebounding).

So, the stats that find Drummond unspectatular are:
Defensive win shares and Defensive rating.
On off -- and Adjusted on offs such as RAPM
Synnergy stats
Opponent stats per 82games

He doesn't hit a single one.

He might not rank at the top yet, but watching him its clear he has the potential to be near the top for years and years to come. He is also big enough to clog up the lane by just standing in it. Combine all that with his contract and that he is under team control for years to come I don't think its close tbh(to griffin).

Griffin just has never struck me as a guy that plays winning basketball. Hard for me to vote someone into high trade value if I don't think a team can win with them.

Now a team like the bucks would definitely pay more for Griffin than Drummond.

Wait.......missed that the Clips are way >> the Pistons? Drummond is basically DeAndre Jordan at less money.
Won't pass, can't shoot. Saying he can clog up the lane on sheer size? He aint Yao Ming...He ain't Hibbert.

[old rem]

Vote...Hibbert

Nominate.. David Lee