2013 Draft: Ranking by Trade Value: Top 10 done.

saintEscaton · Post #41 » by **saintEscaton** » Tue Mar 10, 2015 6:03 pm

Lol Len> Noel. Hands down from this season alone

Post #42 » by **HartfordWhalers** » Wed Mar 11, 2015 11:45 am

Bump.

Will reset this for number 3 later today, but it looks to be safely Gobert.

shrink · Post #43 » by **shrink** » Wed Mar 11, 2015 11:48 am

Adding stats would be nice

Post #44 » by **HartfordWhalers** » Thu Mar 12, 2015 12:47 pm

Oladipo 7
Len 2
Noel 3
MCW 0
Shabazz 0
Schroeder 0
Dieng 0
Plumlee 0
Gobert 16

Gobert takes second, and I will reset poll for third.

If anyone wants to take some time and add stats, please do so.

Post #45 » by **bondom34** » Thu Mar 12, 2015 1:02 pm

Noel next to me.

Post #46 » by **HartfordWhalers** » Sat Mar 14, 2015 1:22 pm

Oladipo takes third:

Oladipo 15
Len 4
Noel 7
Adams 0
MCW 1
Shabazz 1
Schroeder 1
Dieng 0
Plumlee 0
Other: ______ 1

Post #47 » by **Texas Chuck** » Sat Mar 14, 2015 4:54 pm

Voted Noel for 4th, but considering MCW just got traded for a quite valuable Lakers pick I think we might be overlooking him a bit. Hard for me to imagine anybody left on this list bringing back much more than that.

Note: I wouldn't take MCW personally ahead of everyone left, but I also hate ignoring real-world evidence.

Post #48 » by **HartfordWhalers** » Sat Mar 14, 2015 5:02 pm

Chuck Texas wrote:Voted Noel for 4th, but considering MCW just got traded for a quite valuable Lakers pick I think we might be overlooking him a bit. Hard for me to imagine anybody left on this list bringing back much more than that.

Note: I wouldn't take MCW personally ahead of everyone left, but I also hate ignoring real-world evidence.

I think there was (and is) a massive gap between Noel and MCW in trade value.

But I could see MCW coming in 5th, or 6th (Len 5th). I had Noel above Oladipo, and I would agree with Oladipo over MCW.

Post #49 » by **loserX** » Sat Mar 14, 2015 5:04 pm

Yeah, of the remaining list I'm picking Noel, but it's about to get tighter in the next few rounds.

Post #50 » by **jazzfan1971** » Sat Mar 14, 2015 5:44 pm

Have you guys seen Gobert's numbers (AND the Jazz numbers!) since the All-Star break?

Post #51 » by **HartfordWhalers** » Sat Mar 14, 2015 5:49 pm

jazzfan1971 wrote:Have you guys seen Gobert's numbers (AND the Jazz numbers!) since the All-Star break?

Yep. He came in 2nd, behind Giannis.

Post #52 » by **Texas Chuck** » Sat Mar 14, 2015 6:35 pm

HartfordWhalers wrote:
Chuck Texas wrote:Voted Noel for 4th, but considering MCW just got traded for a quite valuable Lakers pick I think we might be overlooking him a bit. Hard for me to imagine anybody left on this list bringing back much more than that.

Note: I wouldn't take MCW personally ahead of everyone left, but I also hate ignoring real-world evidence.

I think there was (and is) a massive gap between Noel and MCW in trade value.

But I could see MCW coming in 5th, or 6th (Len 5th). I had Noel above Oladipo, and I would agree with Oladipo over MCW.

Agree there should be a gap between Noel and MCW. Disagree its massive based on what MCW just went for. How much better return could the Sixers realistically expect for Noel? I'd say not that much more. I agree the difference in asking price would be rather stark--and thus Noel will likely stay.

And again I personally value Noel a lot more than MCW, but Im not sure that reflects the actual market.

Post #53 » by **HartfordWhalers** » Sat Mar 14, 2015 7:15 pm

Chuck Texas wrote:
HartfordWhalers wrote:
Chuck Texas wrote:Voted Noel for 4th, but considering MCW just got traded for a quite valuable Lakers pick I think we might be overlooking him a bit. Hard for me to imagine anybody left on this list bringing back much more than that.

Note: I wouldn't take MCW personally ahead of everyone left, but I also hate ignoring real-world evidence.

I think there was (and is) a massive gap between Noel and MCW in trade value.

But I could see MCW coming in 5th, or 6th (Len 5th). I had Noel above Oladipo, and I would agree with Oladipo over MCW.

Agree there should be a gap between Noel and MCW. Disagree its massive based on what MCW just went for. How much better return could the Sixers realistically expect for Noel? I'd say not that much more. I agree the difference in asking price would be rather stark--and thus Noel will likely stay.

And again I personally value Noel a lot more than MCW, but Im not sure that reflects the actual market.

I would put the expected value of that Lakers pick at a pick at 7.
I think Noel's trade value is more like a pick at 3.
If you compare the 2, Noel is 2.5 years younger, more physically gifted, and putting up better numbers (WS of 2.6 to .1, BPM of 0.2 to -1.0, VORP of 1.0 to 0.4 etc.)

And yes, I am not including the rpm 'stat' that already includes an aging adjustment making the error minimization effectively punish people for being younger apart from what a standard rapm or even box score statistic would fit, as well as giving MCW extra points for being taller than the average pg despite also giving him credit for any rebounds he gets and the rapm effect of his size that rapm should already capture if it does actually matter, versus an algorithm trying to capture team record changes year over year based upon what mostly falls into a within sample fit. Or just the simple fact that Movgov jumps from a 0 on Denver to over +3 when he switched teams; despite the idea being that rpm is supposed to measure a teammates impact separable from his teammate environment, and the average player traded looked to have a change of .8 or so which if you accept as the margin of error (good luck getting a formal standard error despite the fact that it is a statistical model and has one), would make individual ratings for all but the top and bottom 20 players close to meaningless in a player comparison environment.

But for the sake of argument, if you believe in rpm, I heard that Noel is outperforming there to.

I think the gap between Noel and MCW is large enough (and valuation in the NBA is top heavy enough) that if offered 2 picks equivalent to the Laker pick, the Sixers would opt to keep Noel, although it would be close.

Post #54 » by **Texas Chuck** » Sat Mar 14, 2015 7:23 pm

I actually think if we look at what the Sixers have been doing recently I would suggest the opposite--that they would take those 2 picks. Even if I agree with you that they should not.

And again you don't need to sell me on the superiority of Noel to MCW. I was one who thought he should have gone 1st overall even with the injury and his play this year has done nothing to make me like him any less. I really like the kid. And maybe in a draft with less talented bigs he could bring you #3. I just think right now, with this draft, I'm not sure he brings that. I actually like this draft class more than last years crazy hyped draft.

davidwho76er · Post #55 » by **davidwho76er** » Sat Mar 14, 2015 7:27 pm

Noel is on a team full of NBADL scrubs. What he brings defensively cannot be measured by the naked eye. His athleticiam is elite. And his hands are terrific in knocking away loose balls and getting steals for a Big man. No way no how would I select Karl Towns over him. Towns has upside yes...but then again so did Hasheem Tabeet and Michael Olawakandi.

Post #56 » by **HartfordWhalers** » Sat Mar 14, 2015 7:51 pm

Chuck Texas wrote:I actually think if we look at what the Sixers have been doing recently I would suggest the opposite--that they would take those 2 picks. Even if I agree with you that they should not.

And again you don't need to sell me on the superiority of Noel to MCW. I was one who thought he should have gone 1st overall even with the injury and his play this year has done nothing to make me like him any less. I really like the kid. And maybe in a draft with less talented bigs he could bring you #3. I just think right now, with this draft, I'm not sure he brings that. I actually like this draft class more than last years crazy hyped draft.

Disagree. What they have done is accept more trade value, not less, in each trade (except maybe the KJ deal). Selling Noel for great but not amazing picks is the opposite of going all in on trying to get star players through the draft. When you look at MCW's age and development curve versus Noel, I think you get a very different picture.

When Hinkie has spoken to the media, he says the goal is transformational players and then fill in around them. On Defense, Noel has been that. On neither offense nor defense, MCW was that. KJ stung because he seemed like a great fill in around guy, but was not a transformational guy at all.

Viper1500 · Post #57 » by **Viper1500** » Sat Mar 14, 2015 9:18 pm

Being a Magic fan, I'd only take Giannis over Oladipo, hoping he turns his potential into something. There is absolutely no way I'd take one of Gobert or Noel for Oladipo, not a chance..

Post #58 » by **HartfordWhalers** » Sat Mar 14, 2015 10:06 pm

Viper1500 wrote:Being a Magic fan, I'd only take Giannis over Oladipo, hoping he turns his potential into something. There is absolutely no way I'd take one of Gobert or Noel for Oladipo, not a chance..

Over twice as many people took Gobert over Oladipo, and I don't think they were wrong personally.

Post #59 » by **HartfordWhalers** » Sat Mar 14, 2015 10:08 pm

Len 3
Noel 18
Mclemore 1
Adams 0
MCW 2
Shabazz 1
Schroeder 1
Dieng 0
Plumlee 0

Looks like Noel ran away with 4th. Not sure who else to add here, adding Zeller, but KCP or Olynyk could have been next.

Post #60 » by **Texas Chuck** » Sat Mar 14, 2015 10:43 pm

Again I wouldn't personally take MCW next, but I really struggle to see anyone left now who would bring more than what he just brought.

Others I'd consider would be Plumlee, Adams, and Schroeder. Not sold on Len at this point.