Vegas Team Win Lines (Prediction time!)

[HartfordWhalers]

zero chance the Vegas books open with these lines...

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has released its 2015-16 NBA season win totals.

[codydaze]

Golden State Warriors 60.5 Under
San Antonio Spurs 58.5 Under
Oklahoma City Thunder 57.5 Under
Los Angeles Clippers 56.5 Over
Houston Rockets 54.5 Over
Memphis Grizzlies 50.5 Over
New Orleans Pelicans 47.5 Under
Utah Jazz 40.5 Over
---------------------------
Dallas Mavericks 38.5 Under
Phoenix Suns 36.5 Over
Sacramento Kings 30.5 Over
Los Angeles Lakers 29.5 Under
Denver Nuggets 26.5 Under
Portland Trail Blazers 26.5 Under
Minnesota Timberwolves 25.5 Over

Cleveland Cavaliers 56.5 Over
Atlanta Hawks 49.5 Over
Chicago Bulls 49.5 Under
Miami Heat 45.5 Over
Toronto Raptors 45.5 Under
Washington Wizards 45.5 Over
Milwaukee Bucks 43.5 Over
Boston Celtics 42.5 Under
-------------------------
Indiana Pacers 42.5 Under
Detroit Pistons 33.5 Over
Charlotte Hornets 32.5 Over
Orlando Magic 32.5 Over
New York Knicks 31.5 Under
Brooklyn Nets 28.5 Under
Philadelphia 76ers 21.5 Over

[JasonStern]

zero chance the Vegas books open with these lines...

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has released its 2015-16 NBA season win totals.

sports books always do this. that doesn't mean they are taking bets from the public yet. right now, the only NBA bets that William Hill is accepting are 2015-2016 NBA Championships and 2015-2016 NBA Conference Futures. by the time bets are open to the public, the lines will be much more in line with educated fans expect as opposed to what ESPN narratives try to sell. for example, the Lakers supposedly opened at 40-something wins two years ago, which I would have thrown serious money at the under. but by the time betting was open to the public, the wins total was in the 20s, which was much more realistic given that they had lost Howard for nothing, Nash and Kobe were showing their age, etc. another example - Baylor supposedly opened at -12.5 tomorrow, but the first bets William Hill publicly accepted were Baylor -17. the professional sports books aren't in the business of losing money.

[BudenFerry]

zero chance the Vegas books open with these lines...

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has released its 2015-16 NBA season win totals.

sports books always do this. that doesn't mean they are taking bets from the public yet. right now, the only NBA bets that William Hill is accepting are 2015-2016 NBA Championships and 2015-2016 NBA Conference Futures. by the time bets are open to the public, the lines will be much more in line with educated fans expect as opposed to what ESPN narratives try to sell. for example, the Lakers supposedly opened at 40-something wins two years ago, which I would have thrown serious money at the under. but by the time betting was open to the public, the wins total was in the 20s, which was much more realistic given that they had lost Howard for nothing, Nash and Kobe were showing their age, etc. another example - Baylor supposedly opened at -12.5 tomorrow, but the first bets William Hill publicly accepted were Baylor -17. the professional sports books aren't in the business of losing money.

I just locked in a max bet with the Hawks at over 49.5. The Kings are the only line that is more than 1 game off from OP's lines. Their line is 33 at my book.

[giberish]

So how much does Charlotte's line move?

[HartfordWhalers]

sports books always do this. that doesn't mean they are taking bets from the public yet. right now, the only NBA bets that William Hill is accepting are 2015-2016 NBA Championships and 2015-2016 NBA Conference Futures. by the time bets are open to the public, the lines will be much more in line with educated fans expect as opposed to what ESPN narratives try to sell. for example, the Lakers supposedly opened at 40-something wins two years ago, which I would have thrown serious money at the under. but by the time betting was open to the public, the wins total was in the 20s, which was much more realistic given that they had lost Howard for nothing, Nash and Kobe were showing their age, etc. another example - Baylor supposedly opened at -12.5 tomorrow, but the first bets William Hill publicly accepted were Baylor -17. the professional sports books aren't in the business of losing money.

I just locked in a max bet with the Hawks at over 49.5. The Kings are the only line that is more than 1 game off from OP's lines. Their line is 33 at my book.

So... the odds posted that were odds that people could bet at if in Vegas, are actually odds and not some product of something ESPN is selling? Go figure.

[HartfordWhalers]

So how much does Charlotte's line move?

Good call.

I just locked in a max bet with the Hawks at over 49.5. The Kings are the only line that is more than 1 game off from OP's lines. Their line is 33 at my book.

Whats the link?

[KF10]

Not sure if it was true or not but Sacramento's odds increased from 300 to 1 -> 100 to 1

[Knosh]

So how much does Charlotte's line move?

Good call.

I just locked in a max bet with the Hawks at over 49.5. The Kings are the only line that is more than 1 game off from OP's lines. Their line is 33 at my book.

Whats the link?

Pinnacle has over/unders up:
https://www.pinnaclesports.com/en/odds/specials/basketball/nba

[Kings2013]

The 30.5 for the Kings is a cross of offensive and laughable

[jbk1234]

I'd take the under on the Hawks and the Bulls. Out West I'd take the under on the Grizzlies and the Mavericks.

[jbk1234]

The 30.5 for the Kings is a cross of offensive and laughable

They aren't concerned with giving offense, they're concerned with setting an accurate line for financial reasons. Something to consider. There are a number of teams I wouldn't bet on until I've seen them play as presently constructed. The Kings are one of them.

[BudenFerry]

So how much does Charlotte's line move?

It's currently unavailable at my book. They were going to be my second big bet this year until MKG went down. I will probably just stick with the Hawks now. Going heavy on the Hawks over 49.5 and to win the Southeast at +165.

[BudenFerry]

So how much does Charlotte's line move?

Good call.

I just locked in a max bet with the Hawks at over 49.5. The Kings are the only line that is more than 1 game off from OP's lines. Their line is 33 at my book.

Whats the link?

sportsbook.ag

[BudenFerry]

I'd take the under on the Hawks and the Bulls. Out West I'd take the under on the Grizzlies and the Mavericks.

an Under on the Hawks would be a big mistake. The Hawks are built to win in the regular season and will continue to do so. Bud's system is built to own in the regular season.

[BudenFerry]

Some one must have hit the Kings hard. They are now up to 34.5 with -130 juice.

[JasonStern]

William Hill finally started accepting season win total bets. here are the lines (left OP/EPSN = right William Hill):

Cleveland Cavaliers 56.5 = 57
Atlanta Hawks 49.5 = 50.5
Chicago Bulls 49.5 = 49.5
Miami Heat 45.5 = 46.5
Toronto Raptors 45.5 = 46.5
Washington Wizards 45.5 = 45.5
Milwaukee Bucks 43.5 = 45
Boston Celtics 42.5 = 42.5
-------------------------
Indiana Pacers 42.5 = 40.5
Detroit Pistons 33.5 = 36.5
Charlotte Hornets 32.5 = 31.5
Orlando Magic 32.5 = 34
New York Knicks 31.5 = 28.5
Brooklyn Nets 28.5 = 29.5
Philadelphia 76ers 21.5 = 21


Golden State Warriors 60.5 = 59.5
San Antonio Spurs 58.5 = 57.5
Oklahoma City Thunder 57.5 = 56.5
Los Angeles Clippers 56.5 = 56.5
Houston Rockets 54.5 = 55.5
Memphis Grizzlies 50.5 = 51
New Orleans Pelicans 47.5 = 48.5
Utah Jazz 40.5 = 42.5
---------------------------
Dallas Mavericks 38.5 = 37
Phoenix Suns 36.5 = 36
Sacramento Kings 30.5 = 36
Los Angeles Lakers 29.5 = 29
Denver Nuggets 26.5 = 26.5
Portland Trail Blazers 26.5 = 26.5
Minnesota Timberwolves 25.5 = 26.5

heavy moves:
Pistons from 33.5 to 36.5
Knicks from 31.5 to 28.5
Kings from 30.5 to 36

a reminder that sports books set the lines based on what the public bets, not what expert analysts project. sports books make their money on the spread. if half the people bet higher and half the people bet lower, then they are guaranteed to make money.

most line moves tended to push teams towards average (high win totals dropped, low win totals raised).

with that in mind, I bet even money across the Timberwolves, Trail Blazers, Nuggets, and Lakers all being under, as I can't imagine a top heavy west having every team with 27 wins. that seems to be a safer bet than picking individual teams to go over/under.

betting the under on the entire southwest division also makes sense, as that division is a gauntlet and each team will have to play 16 in-division games throughout the season - but I'm not confident enough to bet that.

[HartfordWhalers]

William Hill finally started accepting season win total bets. here are the lines (left OP/EPSN = right William Hill):

Cleveland Cavaliers 56.5 = 57
Atlanta Hawks 49.5 = 50.5
Chicago Bulls 49.5 = 49.5
Miami Heat 45.5 = 46.5
Toronto Raptors 45.5 = 46.5
Washington Wizards 45.5 = 45.5
Milwaukee Bucks 43.5 = 45
Boston Celtics 42.5 = 42.5
-------------------------
Indiana Pacers 42.5 = 40.5
Detroit Pistons 33.5 = 36.5
Charlotte Hornets 32.5 = 31.5
Orlando Magic 32.5 = 34
New York Knicks 31.5 = 28.5
Brooklyn Nets 28.5 = 29.5
Philadelphia 76ers 21.5 = 21


Golden State Warriors 60.5 = 59.5
San Antonio Spurs 58.5 = 57.5
Oklahoma City Thunder 57.5 = 56.5
Los Angeles Clippers 56.5 = 56.5
Houston Rockets 54.5 = 55.5
Memphis Grizzlies 50.5 = 51
New Orleans Pelicans 47.5 = 48.5
Utah Jazz 40.5 = 42.5
---------------------------
Dallas Mavericks 38.5 = 37
Phoenix Suns 36.5 = 36
Sacramento Kings 30.5 = 36
Los Angeles Lakers 29.5 = 29
Denver Nuggets 26.5 = 26.5
Portland Trail Blazers 26.5 = 26.5
Minnesota Timberwolves 25.5 = 26.5

heavy moves:
Pistons from 33.5 to 36.5
Knicks from 31.5 to 28.5
Kings from 30.5 to 36

a reminder that sports books set the lines based on what the public bets, not what expert analysts project. sports books make their money on the spread. if half the people bet higher and half the people bet lower, then they are guaranteed to make money.

most line moves tended to push teams towards average (high win totals dropped, low win totals raised).

with that in mind, I bet even money across the Timberwolves, Trail Blazers, Nuggets, and Lakers all being under, as I can't imagine a top heavy west having every team with 27 wins. that seems to be a safer bet than picking individual teams to go over/under.

betting the under on the entire southwest division also makes sense, as that division is a gauntlet and each team will have to play 16 in-division games throughout the season - but I'm not confident enough to bet that.

zero chance the Vegas books open with these lines, but if they did, the smart money would be on the under for:

Los Angeles Lakers 29.5
Denver Nuggets 26.5
Portland Trail Blazers 26.5
Minnesota Timberwolves 25.5

Unless the switch from 29.5 to 29 counts, looks like the zero chance event paid off on those 4 problematic lines. And as mentioned above, the lines were available at other places earlier, just not your preferred source.

[JasonStern]

Unless the switch from 29.5 to 29 counts, looks like the zero chance event paid off on those 4 problematic lines. And as mentioned above, the lines were available at other places earlier, just not your preferred source.

not understanding the hostility. I never intended to argue that - was just pointing out that the public betting lines are different than what the lines open at. as William Hill's lines show, there were really only 3 lines that moved significantly, and I put my money where my mouth was and placed my bets accordingly. good luck to anyone on RealGM that bets.

[Prospect Dong]

WEST
Golden State Warriors 60.5 close
San Antonio Spurs 58.5 over
Oklahoma City Thunder 57.5 over
Los Angeles Clippers 56.5 close
Houston Rockets 54.5 close
Memphis Grizzlies 50.5 under
New Orleans Pelicans 47.5 under
Utah Jazz 40.5 over
---------------------------
Dallas Mavericks 38.5 over
Phoenix Suns 36.5 under
Sacramento Kings 30.5 under
Los Angeles Lakers 29.5 under
Denver Nuggets 26.5 close
Portland Trail Blazers 26.5 under
Minnesota Timberwolves 25.5 under

EAST
Cleveland Cavaliers 56.5 over
Atlanta Hawks 49.5 over
Chicago Bulls 49.5 under
Miami Heat 45.5 over
Toronto Raptors 45.5 under
Washington Wizards 45.5 over
Milwaukee Bucks 43.5 close
Boston Celtics 42.5 under
-------------------------
Indiana Pacers 42.5 over
Detroit Pistons 33.5 over
Charlotte Hornets 32.5 over
Orlando Magic 32.5 under
New York Knicks 31.5 under
Brooklyn Nets 28.5 over
Philadelphia 76ers 21.5 close

My three high teams are Chicago, LA Lakers, and Portland. My biggest lock under is LAL. Kobe will get hurt again, Hibbert will start complaining about touches, Russell will need some time to adjust.

My three low teams are Atlanta, Cleveland, and Miami. Atlanta is my biggest lock over assuming relative health. You don't take a 62 win team, lose DeMarre Carroll but gain Tim Hardaway Jr. and Tiago Splitter and keep everyone else, and end up 13 games worse.

Holy ****, that sig! I normally browse with sigs off at work, so hadn't seen it. What a world!