Indiana/Minnesota/Boston 3-way

[wolves_89]

What are the odds Isaac will ever be the player Crowder is? The years under control is a solid argument, but if you look at the draft history (esp Minn's) it is more likely that we end up with 8 years of low mediocrity instead of Crowder.
After the trade go hard after Green and then the Wolves should have a core that NEEDS to compete in 3 years... Rubio, Wiggins, Crowder, Green, Towns with Jones, Dunn, Lavine, Bjelica, Dieng and Aldrich from the bench would be my favorite roster ever.

I'd be more than happy to take the chance that Isaac is as good or better than Crowder, especially when you factor in that the Wolves best chance at a championship window probably starts in 2-3 years. It makes a lot more sense to me to have a young player that has a very good chance of being a key component of contending teams over a guy who will make the Wolves better in the short term but is far less likely to be a contributor when it really matters.

What gives you the confidence that the player the Wolves will pick "has a very good chance of being a key component of contending teams"? I think that chance is very small...

I guess we differ significantly on how we view players in the draft this year. I see Isaac as a guy whose floor in 3-4 years will be a rotation player and could very well be a starter. His prime years lineup perfectly with when the Wolves as a team should be peaking.

With Crowder I see a guy who would help significantly in the next couple of years but won't make the team a contender. He will also be 30 and looking for a big contract about the time the Wolves are ready to contend.

[SBM]

Honestly as a Pacers fan I don't feel good about trading George for picks.

I guess I understand that in general, but this isn't really a situation where it's a huge unknown. You know you'd have the No. 1 pick and I feel like Fultz would be a great start to the rebuilding process. Add in maybe Isaac as your SF replacement and that's a solid young nucleus of Fultz, Isaac and Turner. You might not end up with the better end of the deal in the long run, but I believe it would be enough for what seems to be a disgruntled star.

Would you personally feel better cutting Minnesota out of it and getting Crowder instead? I guess that would make some sense.

I would feel better getting Wiggins or Lavine + Minny pick and filler. I don't like dealing with Boston.

[YourBuddy]

Honestly as a Pacers fan I don't feel good about trading George for picks.

I guess I understand that in general, but this isn't really a situation where it's a huge unknown. You know you'd have the No. 1 pick and I feel like Fultz would be a great start to the rebuilding process. Add in maybe Isaac as your SF replacement and that's a solid young nucleus of Fultz, Isaac and Turner. You might not end up with the better end of the deal in the long run, but I believe it would be enough for what seems to be a disgruntled star.

Would you personally feel better cutting Minnesota out of it and getting Crowder instead? I guess that would make some sense.

I would feel better getting Wiggins or Lavine + Minny pick and filler. I don't like dealing with Boston.

Well the Wolves would clearly never offer that.

[Klomp]

I guess we differ significantly on how we view players in the draft this year. I see Isaac as a guy whose floor in 3-4 years will be a rotation player and could very well be a starter. His prime years lineup perfectly with when the Wolves as a team should be peaking.

With Crowder I see a guy who would help significantly in the next couple of years but won't make the team a contender. He will also be 30 and looking for a big contract about the time the Wolves are ready to contend.

In order for the team to be a contender, it has to make the playoffs first. I worry somewhat that getting caught up in what Isaac can be in 3-4 years is like trying to run before knowing how to walk. Obviously contending is the end goal, but I think it's possible Crowder gets us closer to being in the contention conversation quicker than Isaac would.

[wolves_89]

I guess we differ significantly on how we view players in the draft this year. I see Isaac as a guy whose floor in 3-4 years will be a rotation player and could very well be a starter. His prime years lineup perfectly with when the Wolves as a team should be peaking.

With Crowder I see a guy who would help significantly in the next couple of years but won't make the team a contender. He will also be 30 and looking for a big contract about the time the Wolves are ready to contend.

In order for the team to be a contender, it has to make the playoffs first. I worry somewhat that getting caught up in what Isaac can be in 3-4 years is like trying to run before knowing how to walk. Obviously contending is the end goal, but I think it's possible Crowder gets us closer to being in the contention conversation quicker than Isaac would.

I agree that the Wolves have to build to contention, but I'm confident that with a couple of good free agent vet additions Minnesota is in the playoffs next season. I see a very similar result for the next couple of years with or without Crowder (the Wolves make the playoffs but aren't serious contenders), therefore I'd rather have the long-term asset over the guy who helps win games in the short term but doesn't significantly change the end result.

[Boneman2]

Minnesota trades #7 straight up for #1? Fine by me!

Yeah so what the hell do the Wolves end up getting LOL

BOS and MIN shouldn't do this trade. Point being PG's value is closer to a mid-lotto + late-lotto, IMO. Maybe slightly less.

You're smoking the best

[Klomp]

I agree that the Wolves have to build to contention, but I'm confident that with a couple of good free agent vet additions Minnesota is in the playoffs next season. I see a very similar result for the next couple of years with or without Crowder (the Wolves make the playoffs but aren't serious contenders), therefore I'd rather have the long-term asset over the guy who helps win games in the short term but doesn't significantly change the end result.

I understand the cost of the draft pick, but to me, you are essentially getting a vet FA in Crowder at about a third of the money he'd command on the open market. I also think another vet makes the team more attractive in free agency and better defines the needed player roles as they build up this roster.

I don't know that any rookie would be a major contributor on this team. They'd be picking him for two years down the road when the goal should be to win now.

[wolves_89]

I agree that the Wolves have to build to contention, but I'm confident that with a couple of good free agent vet additions Minnesota is in the playoffs next season. I see a very similar result for the next couple of years with or without Crowder (the Wolves make the playoffs but aren't serious contenders), therefore I'd rather have the long-term asset over the guy who helps win games in the short term but doesn't significantly change the end result.

I understand the cost of the draft pick, but to me, you are essentially getting a vet FA in Crowder at about a third of the money he'd command on the open market. I also think another vet makes the team more attractive in free agency and better defines the needed player roles as they build up this roster.

I don't know that any rookie would be a major contributor on this team. They'd be picking him for two years down the road when the goal should be to win now.

I think that's where we differ. I believe the Wolves should to be planning for 2-3 years down the road when they will be in better position to contend. I've little doubt that Minnesota can make the playoffs in the short term without a win now trade and I'd much rather see them focus their team building on making the team as good as possible when that window for contending opens. For me that means keeping the pick over Crowder is an easy choice.

[enzino]

Indiana Out: Paul George
Indiana In: No. 1, No. 7

Minnesota Out: No. 7
Minnesota In: Jae Crowder

Boston Out: No. 1, Jae Crowder
Boston In: Paul George

Note: Boston has Tyler Zeller ($8 million unguaranteed) and Minnesota has Jordan Hill ($4.18 million unguaranteed) to help make salaries match, if necessary.

Boston gets its star player its been looking for. Minnesota gets a cheap, young veteran who's a perfect fit in the lineup and in the coach's system. Indiana gets good value for George.

I'm sure somebody will say that Indiana gets too rich of a deal for its unhappy star, but how is that different from Minnesota's Kevin Love trade a few years ago?

to work under cap rules, you need to add some salary fillers. considering that many players (LNEY) can't be traded for the time being (draft night, for instance), it is not easy to make it feasible

[Klomp]

I think that's where we differ. I believe the Wolves should to be planning for 2-3 years down the road when they will be in better position to contend. I've little doubt that Minnesota can make the playoffs in the short term without a win now trade and I'd much rather see them focus their team building on making the team as good as possible when that window for contending opens. For me that means keeping the pick over Crowder is an easy choice.

They won 31 games last year. It will take a 10-15 win jump to just make the playoffs, not even saying anything about having a shot to advance. They aren't doing that with Isaac as the only addition. And I'm not convinced top FAs will be lining up to join a 31-win team. If any do, it won't be for $6 million....more like $18 million.

If you want to just stick with the natural development that's fine. I just wouldn't expect making the playoffs for another couple years if that's the case. And at that point, our stars enter extension talks and might start getting antsy and wanting out like Kevin Love did.

Crowder isn't a piece that would prematurely close the window of contention...but he might crack it open a little sooner.

[Boneman2]

I don't mind it for anyone involved though I question BOS moves the pick now that's it's actually #1. They could've made the move at the deadline if they were willing to give it up in conjunction to Crowder (and Brown I believe) but chose not to - so at least that was Danny's thinking at the time and I'm not sure much has changed.

Unless he gets some sort of encouragement from ownership, I doubt he moves the #1 overall.

In my opinion, Paul George is not the solutions for Boston problem.

He can be a big part of the solution, that's for sure.
He's been one of the better players going up against LeBron - he's not scared and he badly wants to beat him.
His teams also had great success against LeBron's Miami squad though I'm not sure that holds too much value now.

Boston needs front court help, yes - but they also need another top dog that's willing to fight tooth and nail against LeBron and there aren't many individuals in the NBA that I'd rather have than George in that regard save Kawhi.

Good post!

The fact PG is willing and able to compete against LeBron never seems to be a factor in valuations.

[Klomp]

to work under cap rules, you need to add some salary fillers. considering that many players (LNEY) can't be traded for the time being (draft night, for instance), it is not easy to make it feasible

I take it you didn't read the italicized note....might not be easy, but it's possible.

[wolves_89]

I think that's where we differ. I believe the Wolves should to be planning for 2-3 years down the road when they will be in better position to contend. I've little doubt that Minnesota can make the playoffs in the short term without a win now trade and I'd much rather see them focus their team building on making the team as good as possible when that window for contending opens. For me that means keeping the pick over Crowder is an easy choice.

They won 31 games last year. It will take a 10-15 win jump to just make the playoffs, not even saying anything about having a shot to advance. They aren't doing that with Isaac as the only addition. And I'm not convinced top FAs will be lining up to join a 31-win team. If any do, it won't be for $6 million....more like $18 million.

If you want to just stick with the natural development that's fine. I just wouldn't expect making the playoffs for another couple years if that's the case. And at that point, our stars enter extension talks and might start getting antsy and wanting out like Kevin Love did.

Crowder isn't a piece that would prematurely close the window of contention...but he might crack it open a little sooner.

I would strongly disagree with the idea that the Wolves won't make the playoffs for the next couple of years if they continue on the developmental path. Minnesota was a lot better last season than their record would suggest. Their expected win total was 38 and that was with the least productive bench in the league and having four of their top seven guys in minutes played being 22 and under. It's not hard to see a significant step forward from the development of Towns/Wiggins/LaVine/Dunn next season. Adding in a couple of solid rotation vets in free agency to shore up the bench and I see the Wolves playoff chances next year looking pretty good.

[shrink]

What are the odds Isaac will ever be the player Crowder is? The years under control is a solid argument, but if you look at the draft history (esp Minn's) it is more likely that we end up with 8 years of low mediocrity instead of Crowder.
After the trade go hard after Green and then the Wolves should have a core that NEEDS to compete in 3 years... Rubio, Wiggins, Crowder, Green, Towns with Jones, Dunn, Lavine, Bjelica, Dieng and Aldrich from the bench would be my favorite roster ever.

I'd be more than happy to take the chance that Isaac is as good or better than Crowder, especially when you factor in that the Wolves best chance at a championship window probably starts in 2-3 years. It makes a lot more sense to me to have a young player that has a very good chance of being a key component of contending teams over a guy who will make the Wolves better in the short term but is far less likely to be a contributor when it really matters.

What gives you the confidence that the player the Wolves will pick "has a very good chance of being a key component of contending teams"? I think that chance is very small...

As much as I like Crowder, and love his contract, I would not give up Isaac for him. You guys have already talked about team control, and price tag which favors Isaac, and it's a testiment to BOS' front office that Crowder's free agent contract can even compete with a rookie scale deal. But let me talk about those chances.

Let's suppose the odds are 3-1 against Isaac ever becoming as good as Crowder, so there is a 75% Crowder is better, and only a 25% chance Isaac is better, However, inside that 25% is maybe a 1-in-5 chance that he is much better, and becomes a star. Stars determine franchises, and these days, your team needs several stars if your goal is to win a ring. And stars are even more valuable under the new CBA, which helps you keep them on your team for several years. We pretty much know Crowder will never be a star, just an excellent complimentary player. If Isaac reached Crowder's level, I'd be happy. But the real value would be if he became a star.

So oretend these are our projections:

25% Isaac busts, Crowder is much better
50% Isaac is worse than Crowder
20% Isaac is better than Crowder
5% Isaac becomes a star?

If those were the projections, and with all the ancillary reasoms, I'd go with Isaac.

[Mystical Apples]

BOS and MIN shouldn't do this trade. Point being PG's value is closer to a mid-lotto + late-lotto, IMO. Maybe slightly less.

This isn't remotely correct. EVen if we made the assumption that no team would offer more than this. A very faulty assumption imo. Indy simply wouldn't trade him for that. They'd keep him and take their chances on re-signing him.

Struggling with how an opinion isn't "remotely correct." Perhaps if assigning ridiculously low value but #7 + #11 in a deep draft at the top is strong for PG's expiring. Which I view as (2) top 7 picks in almost every other draft.

I've said this way too many times on this board for this thinking to still be so prevelant, but a year of a star player is extremely valuable. And trading a guy a year out just to get something is incredibly short-sighted.

Except I'm not Indiana and value is what someone's willing to pay, not the asking price. And to be blunt All-Stars aren't created equal and Paul George is overrated, IMO. Clearly you feel differently. But if I'm Indiana? They have a dearth of assets to build around so yeah, I'd consider avoiding the pitfalls of over-valuing present consumption and instead look 3 years down the road......

Option 1: 2017 (#7 + #11) / 2018 tank (#1 to #7) / 2019 tank (thru #10). Cap space = acquiring additional picks

Option 2: PG walks, potentially sticking IND with long-term contract(s) or minus assets from impressing PG.

Option 3: he stays (yeah). Massive deal + Turner's possible extension. Not even sure this is the best outcome.

[shrink]

Let me preface this post by saying that I've mentioned the following about Isaiah Thomas, so if BOS fans want to cheer on my lower valuation of PG, keep in mind it applies to IT too.

Last deadline, much of the Trade Board was surprised by the low trade value teams were receiving for one-year rentals of some good, win now players. ibaka, Tucker, even Noel as an RFA got offers that were lower than what much of the board predicted. Part of the reason for this, I believe, is that front offices could see the gap between GSW/CLE and everybody else. ATL was even bailing mid-season from a good team, because that gap was so apparent, and they started fielding offers for Milsap. Nobody thought adding a star player was going to get them a ring this year, so no one was going to pay too much to get somebody.

That gap is even more apparent now. Any team that signs Paul George is not going to become a contender, like he might have done in other years. Why would BOS offer the #1 pick? Who are they even bidding against here? Just like the rest of the NBA, they might as well wait until 2018, where they could manufacture the cap space to sign him for free, and even if they lose him, it didn't cost them the #1 pick. BOS should be trying for championships, not just a "nice season." This is Boston! However, spending prime assets to go for the 2018 Championship is short-sighted,and like the rest of the NBA, now is the time for patience.

[sportfan6197]

Cut out Indy and we'll take #7 for Crowder easily. Would gladly throw in a Clipper or Celtic 2018 pick as well.

Ideally Issac/Tatum with the #7, but I'd take Monk too. Opens up playing time for Jaylen/Yabu, and we can use our cap space to sign a Gallo/Ibaka if Hayward/Blake doesn't work out

[sportfan6197]

For the Wolves I'd pass on Crowder for #7 (I personally don't think Crowder has that much value). I've long been an advocate of Minnesota taking the long road and building for a few year in the future, and with that in mind I'd rather have a player like Isaac than Crowder. Assuming Isaac is available (which seems like a pretty good chance based on the mock drafts) he provides more upside, is cheaper for the next 4 years, and would have 8 years of team control. If there was much chance of the Wolves contending for a championship in the next couple of years I might be more inclined to to trade for Crowder, but I think it far more likely that Isaac would be around when Minnesota is ready to contend that Crowder would be.

What are the odds Isaac will ever be the player Crowder is? The years under control is a solid argument, but if you look at the draft history (esp Minn's) it is more likely that we end up with 8 years of low mediocrity instead of Crowder.
After the trade go hard after Green and then the Wolves should have a core that NEEDS to compete in 3 years... Rubio, Wiggins, Crowder, Green, Towns with Jones, Dunn, Lavine, Bjelica, Dieng and Aldrich from the bench would be my favorite roster ever.

I'd be more than happy to take the chance that Isaac is as good or better than Crowder, especially when you factor in that the Wolves best chance at a championship window probably starts in 2-3 years. It makes a lot more sense to me to have a young player that has a very good chance of being a key component of contending teams over a guy who will make the Wolves better in the short term but is far less likely to be a contributor when it really matters.

Would you consider the deal more if a non-brooklyn 1st or mid level piece like Rozier/Yabu was added?


Personally, #7 for Crowder is great value for Boston. Boston doesn't have salary issues until 2018 earliest, and moving Crowder for a pick adds another cheap contract, opens up minutes for Jaylen, and allows us to sign a plan B option in FA such as Gallo/Ibaka potentially.

[basketballwacko2]

I don't mind it for anyone involved though I question BOS moves the pick now that's it's actually #1. They could've made the move at the deadline if they were willing to give it up in conjunction to Crowder (and Brown I believe) but chose not to - so at least that was Danny's thinking at the time and I'm not sure much has changed.

Unless he gets some sort of encouragement from ownership, I doubt he moves the #1 overall.

This is a fair counter-argument. But I think he could realize next year is their last best shot to top the Cavs, with Thomas entering his final year. George will be able to help Boston beat Cleveland next year far more than Fultz or any other rookie could.

The Celtics got run out of their own gym by the Cavs adding a rookie is not gonna get them past the Cavs next season even if it's Fultz. It would take a KAT style rookie to make a huge difference. They need Rebounding and they need a 2nd scoring option, Horford, Bradley, Crowder, Brown and/or Smart are not it. The Cavs need to sign a Hayward, or Milsap or maybe Blake Griffin, or they need to move IT and some assets and bring in somebody who can play D and score maybe 2 someone's.

[Klomp]

Cut out Indy and we'll take #7 for Crowder easily.

I just assumed Boston would rather have a star player than two rookies, which is why I included Indiana.