psman2 wrote:jayjaysee wrote:Chinook wrote:
This thread's trade doesn't involve 4. It's 8 and two future picks for 2. If you're talking about 4 and 8 for 2, your logic scale doesn't make sense at all. They'd be giving up 8 for nothing.
It’s actually more likely to be 8 and 3 future picks…
But what you quoted was me saying SAS should trade up or out if they don’t love anyone or love everyone the same.
So it does kind of scale with what I was talking about? I just don’t get the need to over do it like some are doing, but you quoted me? My team doesn’t have a first so I’m very excited that this draft is so awful.
Take this take with a grain of salt but from my layman's scouting pov this is my take of the top of the draft. Sarr is a weak #1, likely the 3rd weakest #1 in the past twenty years. I view him as a 3/4 draft slot in an "average" draft. After him there is not another player in this draft I would rank as a top 5 player in a "average draft". After Sarr I think most of the next 10 or so prospects are 6/7 pick quality guys and would have them in a very tight value tier. And this is what a lot of "experts" seem to be telling us. The STD deviation of average draft slot in the expert mocks is so tight at the top, everyone is just clustered very tight together around the same value. There is no where close to a consensus from #2 to #11, prospects are not separating themselves and there is not the normal distribution we usually see in the lottery. Even in the Bennett draft, most everyone had Noel, Olidipo, and Otto Porter in their top five somewhere.
If Memphis got in the top 4 of this draft I would have loved to trade down and stayed in the top 10 because of this. At pick nine I don't think the quality of prospect is going to be much lower than it was going to be 7 or even much lower if you are willing to go BPA. Now if we wanted to draft for need and wanted a specific guy like Clingan then this fall from 7 to 9 surely hurts our chances to get him even if we end up with a prospect that grades out very close to him still but does not meet our team needs. Memphis is really the only top 10 team that should even consider drafting for need.
I don’t doubt it’s a bad draft. Everyone has said that.
And (same as you just my opinion) I personally lean toward the comparison of just cutting the top 2-4 out of a normal draft a lot more than the hyperbolic one we’ve been seeing.... Because I do think there are guys available who will have great careers all the way through the top 20 in mocks. Collier, Castle, de Silva, Ware, Holland, etc…
I just don’t buy teams not having a preference. These tier systems can’t actually be the final for good teams. If so, you’d just trade back to the last two spots in your tier and get two guys and an asset for moving back while getting the cheaper rookie contract.
Which is all I was saying. If all 8 guys are the same, trade back with Portland and have 7 and 8. Portland can draft their guy and SAS can get whoever is left in their tier…
But that would probably sound bad because SAS doesn’t actually value all 8 guys the same? Which means they should pay a real price to move up?