tmorgan wrote:As long as the actual Ainges are thinking like the last two posts (Aingesburner, jazzfan… sorry, this ended up taking a while) in this thread, there will be no Markkanen deal to anyone.
I’m a Lauri fan. I completely understand the context of his last season, getting healthy-rested and playing on a tanking team. I know he’s capable of numbers similar to two years ago, maybe even three years ago (All-Star) on a real roster with a glaring need for a second banana and a PF. And yes, Detroit fits that description perfectly. So please don’t repeat all that stuff in a reply, because I agree with it and am aware of it.
The pricing issues are these:
1) He’s under contract for 4/198 guaranteed. He needs to be the player from two years ago to be worth that, and he needs to play 75 games.
2) Markkanen has NEVER played 75 games. I know Utah did some shenanigans last year, but Lauri’s career high is 68 games in eight NBA seasons.
3) There aren’t a bunch of realistic trade options out there. The market sets the price.
Utah needs to tank again and everyone knows it. Ace needs starter minutes and will take starter shots. Markkanen can theoretically rehab some of his value this season, but it’ll go against the needed tank. If they repeat last year, they’ll depress his value even further. He needs to be moved, and Detroit and everyone else knows this.
Memphis didn’t need to trade Bane. Orlando needing shooting so insanely badly that they were willing to overpay and bring in the guy they wanted. Memphis was in the position of negotiating power and used it. Utah is absolutely NOT in that position with Detroit or anyone else. Tobias Harris is a perfectly solid option in Detroit next year. He’s the locker room Unc, has a well-rounded game, and played well in the playoffs. The Pistons have another year to decide their direction at PF if necessary.
Five firsts is absolutely never going to happen from anyone. Three unprotected firsts is extremely unlikely as well, at least from Detroit. For all the accolades and attention the team got from tripling their win total, it was still just 44 wins, 6th in the (L)east, and an entertaining first round exit. One major injury to Cade (who already had one) and this is trading a lottery pick next year.
Detroit’s realistic offer is Harris, 27 FRP (unprotected), 28 swap (likely nothing), and 29 FRP (maybe unprotected, maybe top 4). We’d need to do some more to account for the extra 20 mil in salary incoming, but it absolutely will not be Stewart (our presence) or Holland (our GM’s first pick). It could be Ivey, but you’re losing one of the firsts that way.
And even with that change to an actual realistic price for Lauri, the odds are that Langdon is still going to pass. We need another development year and to decide the futures of Ivey and Duren on the team. We need to see if Ausar and Holland improve offensively. And, let’s face it, even in the weak East next year, are we really favorites against Cleveland, New York or perhaps Orlando or Atlanta with Markkanen instead of Harris? If the answer is anything less than “possibly”, which I think it is, there’s no reason to take this risk. And no matter how highly I think of Markkanen (very, actually), it’s still a risk financially, a risk in terms of his durability, and a risk in terms of the cost to get him.
This is a great post. In my opinion Ron Holland - who I question his long term fit with Thompson/Duran - should anchor the deal with 2 1sts in 26 and 28 - potentially with them both being unprotected.
Making the money work short and long term might be an issue as well. Durand and Ivey are entering the last years of their rookie deals this year with Thompson a year behind them. The biggest issue for Detroit is that none of them have proven to be a true #1 option at this point. But in 2 years from now, will you be able to pay all 3 with Cade/Ivey making a combined 100+ MM.
Also is there enough shooting in this lineup:
Cade-Ivey-Thompson-Lauri-Duran
To me, if I’m Detroit, I’m waiting to make this kind of a trade. I want to see what Ivey looks like off the injury, and make decisions on which young guys to pay before taking a big swing.