The Sixers are NOT trading Miller

[BBallFreak]

ANOTHER POSSIBLE TRANSLATION: Stefansky knows that Cleveland, Denver and/or Orlando must make a move or they go nowhere this season...and the asking price is now more than a first-round pick and an expiring considering how well Miller still plays.

But surely you know that too.

You assume that was his asking price, or that anyone has expressed interest in meeting it if it was. That could be his way of trying to get there. But surely you'd thought of that...

[WiltForever]

Young Gunz: Actually you are wrong.
Philly's cap next year stands right now at just under 36.3 million, once they renounce Giricek, and they will. The cap hold of Iguodala, is 300 % of what he is making this season. So his Cap hold number is 8.4 milliom,,,NOT a MAX amount figure that you stated. The cap hold for Lou Williams will be right about 2.1 million, add that to the 36.3 million, and it comes to 46.8 million. The cap is said to be at the minimum of 57.5 million. That means really, right now Philly is 10.7 million under the approx Cap. Add in another 1,147,000, the salary that Booth will get next year, but he has an Opt-out clause, and he will use it. I mean why not ? It's the Vet minimum salary anyways. And I'm sure Booth feels that a team with at least a better chance at the playoffs will offer him the same Vet minimum. That brings us up to 11.850 million. Now, use the the utah pick as sweetner to get a team to take Evans, although many here think that Orlando will take him as is, without any sweetner for a couple of their ending C's, but remove Evans, and that brings us up to at least 16.7 million. All they have to do is maybe dump say a Carney, and that easily gives us the money to sign a Elton Brand, and easily pay whoever we draft.It's just that easy

Good explanation, except I wouldn't dump Carney. Something in my gut tells me he's suffered the same fate as Daly and Steven Hunter when Mo benched them a couple of years ago and destroyed their confidence. I'd hold onto Carney until we bring in a real coach, not 'let's remake the 1980s Sixers' retread. In June, make Mo president of the Basketball Trading Card Division.

[WiltForever]

Hey Joey - I thought you were right on until the Booth thing. I just don't see another team offering him the same money. He's old, he stinks, he's useless. If I was a bad basketball player, I wouldn't say no to a million dollars.

Dave,

A majority of his $1.1 mil (I believe $700 thou) is not covered by the league in that he signed to the veteran's minimum. Check for the exact explanation.

[killbuckner]

As an alternative for booth the Sixers could trade him plus cash to another team and let them cut him. Or keep him at a reduced rate. Either way the Sixers wouldn't have to take salary in return. Though once the roster gets below 12 there is a caphold for that slot equal to the rookie minimum salary. IT would still allow them to clear that space if they needed to.

[WiltForever]

-= original quote snipped =-You assume that was his asking price, or that anyone has expressed interest in meeting it if it was. That could be his way of trying to get there. But surely you'd thought of that...

I assume that smart people do smart things. The owners of two of the three teams mentioned (Denver and Orlando) are all billionaires; Cleveland's owner is half a billionaire (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/basketba ... owners.htm).

This is their toy, though if you want to delude yourself that this is a 'business', be my guest.

All three teams are going nowhere in their conferences - third, fourth or fifth place finishes at best. All three teams are in desperate need of a point guard. Miller is a point guard - and pretty good one, though he can't shoot the three, thus couldn't possibly help Miami, then no one probably could help Miami which is why Riley and Miami's billionaire owner didn't make a move and are now tanking the season.

The Shaq era is over, my friend.

But back to whether there's any interest in Miller, there are three smart (and very rich) owners there who certainly know they don't get into the finals without a point guard. Perhaps a 20-25 pick is asking too much. But if they want to win this year...and all three could make it to the finals - and Denver and Cleveland possibly winning the championship - if they complete their rosters.

So, of course I don't know any more than you, if they've expressed interest in Miller. But if you're a card collector or some other form of hobbyist), do you think...for a billionaire...that a few million bucks is going to stop you collecting that final piece?

I think, what's happened, is that Stefansky has now raised the asking price...a pick plus an expiring (or a partial expiring)...plus probably another pick. If he unloads Evans, he's up to around $15+ mil. He doesn't have to move Miller...

That's just my opinion...

[shrink]

TRANSLATION: Nobody wanted to give us a first round pick and pay Andre Miller $20 million.

TRANSLATION, SHRINK: Nobody wanted to give up a first round pick and pay Andre Miller $10 million.

His 2008-2009 salary, which would be an expiring salary, thus could be moved relatively easily, is $10 million.

For the current season, with nearly 1/3 of games played, he would be owed around $6 million, 75% of which would have to come back in some form to make any trade for him work.

But surely you know that...

Two things:

Yeah, I said it was $20 mil for simplification, but right now, his price would be about $17 mil.

Yeah, he'd be an expiring next year. However, he's talking about trading him now. You can't erase having to pay him between now and next year's trade deadline. If so, can someone please give me a good deal on Antoine Walker, who's a similar-sized expiring after next year?

[shrink]

He makes significantly less than his cap hold, and they can always trade him in the offseason.

I'm still not following.

I can understand how players that will be getting new contracts, like Iguodala and Louis Williams, might have projected cap hold numbers.

But how does a player who has a defined salary next year ($10,233,333) make significantly less than his cap hold?

[ponder719]

-= original quote snipped =-

You assume that was his asking price, or that anyone has expressed interest in meeting it if it was. That could be his way of trying to get there. But surely you'd thought of that...

The assumption we're making is that Stefanski is a man of his word, rather than a doubleplusgood gmspeaker like Billy King was. Ed had said, rather bluntly, in a radio interview a couple weeks ago that he would be interested in moving Miller for expirings and a pick. (This was the same interview where he said he was exploring moving Korver, Evans, and Green.) Now he's saying he doesn't want to move him. That suggests that at the very least that was the asking price. Whether or not the new position implies he wants to keep Miller or is driving up the price is certainly up in the air. However, it seems more likely that the change from "I'll move him for expirings and a pick" to "I don't want to move him" means he actually wants to keep him.

[WiltForever]

-= original quote snipped =-Two things:

(1) Yeah, I said it was $20 mil for simplification, but right now, his price would be about $17 mil.

(2) Yeah, he'd be an expiring next year. However, he's talking about trading him now. You can't erase having to pay him between now and next year's trade deadline. If so, can someone please give me a good deal on Antoine Walker, who's a similar-sized expiring after next year?

Good, we're sort of in agreement at least on the first thing:

(1) Yes, his asking price now is $17 mil (according to your calculation). But to make the trade for this year's $7 mil portion (for clarification, not simplification), they'd have to take back around $5 mil.

Thus net (not for simplification, but for clarification) would be around $12 mil.


Now (2): Are you crazy? Comparing him to Antoine Walker? Miller's still a player. He would help a team like Denver or Cleveland get close to a championship; less so Orlando, but perhaps the East. He'll get $10 mil next year and can be resigned for another three years at $5-$6 mil per and probably be a solid 25-30 mpg point until 35 or 36.

My recollection is that Marc Jackson took Indiana to the finals with Reggie when he was 35. He wasn't pretty but he was effective. Miller's the same type of player. Durable, smart, can pass...and is shooting at nearly a .500 clip. Yea, he can't make the three-ball. BFD.

But please, please don't compare him with Antoine who's fat and out of shape and probably should retire.

[shrink]

You erased his $10 mil salary next year with the waive of the magic "expiring" hand.

His 2008-2009 salary, which would be an expiring salary, thus could be moved relatively easily, is $10 million.

I used Walker to demonstrate that there's more to it than that.

[shrink]

(1) Yes, his asking price now is $17 mil (according to your calculation). But to make the trade for this year's $7 mil portion (for clarification, not simplification), they'd have to take back around $5 mil.

Are you talking about the 125% + $100,000 cap match to erase another $2 mil?

Even if PHI can find a team that has matching salaries at the lowest range, I'm surprised that PHI is willing to eat $2 mil to make the price for the acquiring team lower.

EDIT: Oops -- $2 mil this year + $3 mil next year = $5 mil. Generous of PHI -- would they keep the cash if they didn't get a late first then? (which generally runs for $3 mil)

[shrink]

Good, we're sort of in agreement at least on the first thing:

(1) Yes, his asking price now is $17 mil (according to your calculation). But to make the trade for this year's $7 mil portion (for clarification, not simplification), they'd have to take back around $5 mil.

Thus net (not for simplification, but for clarification) would be around $12 mil.

Wait -- that's not right.

I think you're saying that the team trading for Miller sends $12 mil in expirings, and gets Miller's $10 mil contract. This saves them the $2 mil, plus, since Miller's $10 is only 2/3rds, you're subtracting 2 from $7 to get to your $5 mil number.

However, PHI wants expirings. The team receiving Miller lost out on reducing their cap by $12 mil, and instead have $10 mil onboard for another year.

Miller's full salary value is added next season, so it'd be $5 + $10 = $15.

Am I following you? Are you reducing the next $2 mil from the 125% cap match, and we're talking about some giant expirings for Miller, right?

[WiltForever]

-= original quote snipped =-Are you talking about the 125% + $100,000 cap match to erase another $2 mil?)

Yes. Rough arithmetic: 125% x aound $7.5 mil = $9.4 mil (Miller's salary this year). Then: 70% (the remainder of the season) x $7.5mil = around $5 mil.

-= original quote snipped =-Even if PHI can find a team that has matching salaries at the lowest range, I'm surprised that PHI is willing to eat $2 mil to make the price for the acquiring team lower. EDIT: Oops -- $2 mil this year + $3 mil next year = $5 mil. Generous of PHI -- would they keep the cash if they didn't get a late first then? (which generally runs for $3 mil

Cute. No, Philly would be trading Miller's $9.4 mil for someone else's $7.5 mil...or it could be someone else's $11+ mil...this year. For cap relief next, when his salary goes up to $10 mil. It doesn't really matter whether they take on an extra $1-3 mil this year, they're not in luxury range and, in the end, it's monopoly money. And a late first-round pick generally runs around $1 mil, not $3 mil.

Now before you give me your little lecture that Philly's already in luxury range at $70 mil, remember that Aaron McKie's $7 mil is off the books for the tax, not for the cap.

[WiltForever]

-= original quote snipped =-.Am I following you?

no, you're not following. that's the problem. you're the one who combined two years' salary for your 'translation'. i'm trying to explain things so that you understand it (other posters seem to understand).

we're talking about two salaries for miller - the one you make the trade at, around $9.4 which means the other team must give value back roughly between $7.5 mil and $11.5 mil. that's where your 125% rule comes into play.

then the second salary is next year's $10 mil. philly, if stefansky eventually trades him, would like as much of that off the books as possible. every dollar he takes off is another dollar he can use in the free-agency market if he wants to make a run at arenas, for instance. he's currently at around $10 mil. if he unloads evans for expirings, he'll be at around $15 mil. if he unloads miller, he'd be at around $20 mil.

if he has a deal in the works for evans, he probably doesn't have to trade miller: $15 mil should be enough to make a run for 26-year-old arenas and 29-year-old brand.

[killbuckner]

Shrink- Miller is owed less than his caphold because he was given a 10 million dollar signing bonus to make it tougher for the Clippers to match when he was signed as a FA. Those dollars are divided among all years of his contract. (proportionately to the salary that season). So MIller's caphold in this case is significantly higher than his actual salary.

[WiltForever]

Shrink- Miller is owed less than his caphold because he was given a 10 million dollar signing bonus to make it tougher for the Clippers to match when he was signed as a FA. Those dollars are divided among all years of his contract. (proportionately to the salary that season). So MIller's caphold in this case is significantly higher than his actual salary.

Question: Does that mean that the $10 mil (or $9.99 mil listed on hoopshype.com or $10.23 mil on 'shamsports.com') is actually higher for the cap hold?

His contract, according to Patricia Bender , was six years/$51 mil.

See: http://www.eskimo.com/~pbender/contract ... /contracts

[killbuckner]

Wilt- Miller had sort of a crazy contract that makes it tough to calculate his exact capnumber for this season for cap purposes. (signing bonus, salary decreased after the first season, trade kicker) But those sites are trying to list his capnumber, not his actual salary. The actual salary only matters to the owner's pocketbook- otherwise capnumbers matter for everything else. Hoopshype is total trash- I would always go with storyteller's or sham's numbers. So my best guess would be that his capnumber for next season is 10.23 million and the actual number of dollars owed to him would be around 8.5 million. The capnumber is whats used to calculate the luxury tax so this really is a pretty minor distinction.

[shrink]

Shrink- Miller is owed less than his caphold because he was given a 10 million dollar signing bonus to make it tougher for the Clippers to match when he was signed as a FA. Those dollars are divided among all years of his contract. (proportionately to the salary that season). So MIller's caphold in this case is significantly higher than his actual salary.

Thanks. I hadn't considered a signing bonus.

[WiltForever]

Hoopshype is total trash- I would always go with storyteller's or sham's numbers. So my best guess would be that his capnumber for next season is 10.23 million and the actual number of dollars owed to him would be around 8.5 million. The capnumber is whats used to calculate the luxury tax so this really is a pretty minor distinction.

The reason it matters for Philly (because they're slightly below the luxury threshhold this year after deducting Aaron McKie's 'amnestied' $7 mil) is next year, when Webber, Ollie, Mckie, Giricek, Randolph and Buckner''s combined $37 mil comes off the books and they're looking to get $15-$20 mil under the cap (not the tax). Evans or Miller's combined $15 mil, whatever portion they can cut off of that and whatever 'that' is considering you've described as Miller's salary), gives them that much more clout in the free-agency market.

So thank you for your explanation. As for 'hoopshype' versus 'shamsports', on this issue they're relatively close.

One other point about the luxury tax: It seems that only a handful of the top teams pay any attention to it: Cleveland, Boston, Denver, Dallas, Phoenix and the Lakers are way over ($3-$15 mil); Houston, slightly over (around $2 mil); Detroit, San Antonio, Toronto and the Wizzards, right on the money; Orlando, Golden State and New Orleans, $5-$10 mil below.


With the exception of Detroit and San Antonio, it would appear that the luxury tax is not having its desired effect: four or five of the league's top six or seven teams (Boston, Denver, Dallas, Phoenix and the Lakers) are willing to break the bank to be in the elite...

[shrink]

Cute. No, Philly would be trading Miller's $9.4 mil for someone else's $7.5 mil...or it could be someone else's $11+ mil...this year. For cap relief next, when his salary goes up to $10 mil. It doesn't really matter whether they take on an extra $1-3 mil this year, they're not in luxury range and, in the end, it's monopoly money. And a late first-round pick generally runs around $1 mil, not $3 mil.

Well, I know the last part is wrong.

I think that an extra $1-$3 mil is not monopoly money to most owners outside of NY.

Yes. Rough arithmetic: 125% x aound $7.5 mil = $9.4 mil (Miller's salary this year). Then: 70% (the remainder of the season) x $7.5mil = around $5 mil.

OK, that can't be right

First, for the BUYER to be saving money, he has to be trading a BIGGER contract for Miller's SMALLER contract, so the most he can send is the $11.4 mil.

In the last 2/3 of the season, the buyer has to pay 2/3 of MILLER'S contract, or $6.1.

In the last 2/3 of the season, PHI has to pay the remaining $7.6 of the larger contract.

The buyer's savings for the rest of the season is $1.5 mil.