Ben Simmons Containment Thread Take 3

[Wolveswin]

Let’s look at the pick packages for Harden, Holiday, and potentially Simmons.

Nets spent 3x 1sts + 4x Swaps
(And got back a juicy 2nd from Cavs)

Bucks Spent 2x 1sts + 2x Swaps

Let’s split the middle of those two most recent actual NBA precedent trades (that were picks centered and showcased) for Simmons to Wolves.

2x 1sts Unprotected (2023 & 2025), with 2025 when possible Towns and/or Russell could be out of MN.

3x Swaps (22, 24, 26), with 2024 when possible Towns and/or Russell could be out of MN and 26 when all 3 including Simmons could be elsewhere.

In quantity of draft capital, I think that is not only fair for Simmons but more than Holiday and justifiably less than Harden pick packages.

In quality of draft capital owning picks from Wolves (vs. Nets or Bucks) is more valuable. Even with Simmons I don’t see Wolves being a top 10 team. So picks would be 19 or better.

The Wolves swaps, depending on who owns the rights, have much higher probability of conveying to receiving team than Nets or Bucks. If 76ers receive, high probability all 3 actually convey. In Bucks and Nets case, none likely to convey — they are almost meaningless to tanking Rockets or struggling Pelicans respectively.

Note: I think without a doubt a third team is needed in any Simmons to Wolves trades. 76ers will require win-now talent from said 3rd team.

[Pharaoh]

haha, okay, whatever fits your narrative so you can get a deal for your team.

If that was to me I'm a Piston fan and have no desire to "land" Simmons, Draymond, CJ or Harris (still love Tobias but we had our time) in a deal.

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[Village Idiot]

When you know what the proposal's going to be before you even open the thread....

When you wonder how somebody became a mod...

[Chinook]

The Spurs aren't doing that deal. They aren't trying to break Murray up into pieces or convert him into "value". I personally wanted to trade Murray for picks or whatever during the draft. It's too late for that now. Moving him should happen, but it needs to be in service of a direct plan toward getting better, and this isn't that.

So what more value is needed to be going to SA for this deal to work? I think it’s one of the more interesting in a long time

Like let’s say Philly adds one more first? So you get shake, 22 Philly, 22 Portland, 24 Portland, and djj. I just love this framework for the Sixers for the first time in a while

It's not a question of value. The Spurs aren't going to trade Murray for pieces. Obviously there comes a point where even the FO would have to agree, but it's an absurdly high threshold.

Basically, the Spurs are like someone looking to buy a house. A competing buyer comes to them and is like, "Hey, the homeowner wants your car as part of the trade for the house. How about I buy your car off you so I can close the deal?" They respond, "I don't really want to sell my car, but if I were willing to, I'd rather just get the house instead of some cash." Then the competing buyer says, "Look, I'll give you $2000 over KBB for your car." If the competing buyer eventually offers like multiple times the KBB, then yeah, they'll take the deal. But in any logical trade falls well short of the threshold, because the hassle of trying to find a new car at this point and the missing out on the house make it not worth the money.

[BlazersBroncos]

Indiana trades:

Myles Turner
Malcolm Brogdon

Indiana receives:

Ben Simmons
Seth Curry

Philadelphia trades:

Ben Simmons
Seth Curry

Philadelphia receives:

CJ McCollum
Robert Covington

Portland trades:

CJ McCollum
Robert Covington

Portland receives:

Pascal Siakam
Chris Boucher

Toronto trades:

Pascal Siakam
Chris Boucher

Toronto receives:

Myles Turner
Malcolm Brogdon

Indiana gets a star for the first time in a long while. Ben Simmons slots in at PF while the Pacers also clean up the log-jam at center. Chris Duarte looks plenty ready to take over much of Brogdon's role.

Philadelphia gets a guy in McCollum who is elite in the three areas the Sixers are most lacking: pick-and-roll ball-handling, catch and shoot 3 point shooting and isolation scoring. Roco isn't as good defensively as Simmons but he is really solid at that end and is also a solid catch and shoot guy.

Portland clears up the log-jam at guard while addressing the lack of quality forwards on the roster. Siakam is one of the most well rounded forwards in the league while Boucher is a veteran 3 and D guy.

Toronto gets a solid upgrade at center in Turner and a go-to guy in Brogdon. Barnes looks ready to slot in a forward alongside OG.

I tihnk PDX needs to add 2 FRP to get this off the ground.

I think it could be simplified:

PDX OUT - CJ McCollum, Derrick Jones Jr, 2022 FRP, 2024 FRP
PDX IN - Ben Simmons

PHI OUT - Ben Simmons
PHI IN - CJ McCollum, Chris Boucher, 2024 FRP, 2023 TOR SRP

TOR OUT - Chris Boucher, 2023 TOR SRP
TOR IN - Derrick Jones Jr, 2022 PDX FRP

[BullyKing]

When you know what the proposal's going to be before you even open the thread....

When you wonder how somebody became a mod...

I always assumed it was based on my good looks

[SharpyShuffle]

Sign Simmons? He is locked in for 4 years?

What? Are you just messing around with semantics or do you have something more to add?

No you are the one that said “only if they can sign Simmons.” What do you mean sign?

Ok, being pedantic or (willfully) dumb, got it. Good stuff

[Village Idiot]

Indiana trades:

Myles Turner
Malcolm Brogdon

Indiana receives:

Ben Simmons
Seth Curry

Philadelphia trades:

Ben Simmons
Seth Curry

Philadelphia receives:

CJ McCollum
Robert Covington

Portland trades:

CJ McCollum
Robert Covington

Portland receives:

Pascal Siakam
Chris Boucher

Toronto trades:

Pascal Siakam
Chris Boucher

Toronto receives:

Myles Turner
Malcolm Brogdon

Indiana gets a star for the first time in a long while. Ben Simmons slots in at PF while the Pacers also clean up the log-jam at center. Chris Duarte looks plenty ready to take over much of Brogdon's role.

Philadelphia gets a guy in McCollum who is elite in the three areas the Sixers are most lacking: pick-and-roll ball-handling, catch and shoot 3 point shooting and isolation scoring. Roco isn't as good defensively as Simmons but he is really solid at that end and is also a solid catch and shoot guy.

Portland clears up the log-jam at guard while addressing the lack of quality forwards on the roster. Siakam is one of the most well rounded forwards in the league while Boucher is a veteran 3 and D guy.

Toronto gets a solid upgrade at center in Turner and a go-to guy in Brogdon. Barnes looks ready to slot in a forward alongside OG.

I tihnk PDX needs to add 2 FRP to get this off the ground.

I think it could be simplified:

PDX OUT - CJ McCollum, Derrick Jones Jr, 2022 FRP, 2024 FRP
PDX IN - Ben Simmons

PHI OUT - Ben Simmons
PHI IN - CJ McCollum, Chris Boucher, 2024 FRP, 2023 TOR SRP

TOR OUT - Chris Boucher, 2023 TOR SRP
TOR IN - Derrick Jones Jr, 2022 PDX FRP

That's fine and dandy but I'd rather get Siakam than Simmons which is why I don't have Simmons going to Portland. Let somebody else give up picks for Simmons if that's what it takes.

[BlazersBroncos]

The Spurs aren't doing that deal. They aren't trying to break Murray up into pieces or convert him into "value". I personally wanted to trade Murray for picks or whatever during the draft. It's too late for that now. Moving him should happen, but it needs to be in service of a direct plan toward getting better, and this isn't that.

So what more value is needed to be going to SA for this deal to work? I think it’s one of the more interesting in a long time

Like let’s say Philly adds one more first? So you get shake, 22 Philly, 22 Portland, 24 Portland, and djj. I just love this framework for the Sixers for the first time in a while

I think that works, but I am not one who thinks Murray is worth 3 FRP's.

As to this not making SAS better, it gives them 2 (or even 3) future FRP's to use to move up and secure a long term piece, combine into a deal for a single player or simply add talent. Not sure how that doesnt improve their future.

[VDT]

There is no way that the Sixers agree to such a deal unless they can use the picks immediately to get a real star.

Trying to find trades among teams that have the same direction (in this proposal everyone generally wants to get better) is an exercise in futility. Everyone wants to consolidate talent and everyone wants to attach some picks to significantly upgrade their talent.

[kuclas]

Wolves picks are so good and valuable in comparison to Nets or Bucks 1sts trades that are precedent in actual NBA. Prove me wrong?

You don’t think Wolves will be top 10 team even with Simmons? Or even sniff Bucks or Nets do you? That means 1st rewarded are going to be 19th or better for team receiving them. Once again, MUCH better asset than Nets or Bucks.

Now let’s break down swaps. You don’t really think Wolves will be better than 76ers do you? Means 76ers will actually get the swap (unlike 2021 Nets swap and most likely their other 3 owed). Once again, better asset than Nets or Bucks.

Should Simmons get better value than Holiday? Maybe. Should Simmons get more value than Harden? No way.

You can't really look at things so superficially can you?

1. If Simmons is the 4th best player on the Wolves, why wouldn't they be better than the Sixers where he was the 2nd best player? Is Embiid just individually so much better than KAT, your new savior Edwards, or DLO? Which leads to the second point:

2. What if Embiid gets injured? Still think those swaps are valuable?

3. And the real problem with your reliance on the Harden trade. 1. Harden had 1.5 years left on his contract and is 31. 2. Simmons has four years and is 25. So two big differences here. First, there was no guarantee Harden was going to extend so you had a real risk of him leaving - not even so much for the Nets but for everyone else who might otherwise bid thereby depressing the auction price. But more importantly, there is significant upside that the picks at the end of this deal will be very good because Brooklyn's core will be in their mid 30's at that point. The Wolves core would be significantly younger at the end of the picks and so there is much less upside to them.

TL/DR - Keep on misrepresenting things to make your trash offer seem legitimate.

Despite Harden’s own set of circumstances, if you think he has less value than Simmons…make your case. That take is pure laughable to me.

If you think Wolves will be better than 76ers, make your case. Not as laughable but, ok.

76ers will get a Simmons lite replacement for their win-now efforts (because Dame and Beal aren’t on the table).

What if Towns gets hurt? We can play the injury what if nonsense all day.

Towns if offense, he doesn't play great defense. Sure a lot of today's nba has to deal with switches and multiple wing defenders but a big man is the last line of defense (literally). So Towns be below average means Minnesota is behind the 8 ball already.

Huge difference when Embiid goes down. They are losing their offense and defense. No way to make that up. So Minnesota is roughly the same team with or without Towns injured.

As for Harden, he was 1.5 years away from choosing his own destination. Just look at the history of NBA all star (healthy) players getting traded. Those with 2 or less years often get traded for much less than their true value
Kyrie Irving traded for injured IT/Jae Crowder and a future pick (turned out to be 8th overall/Colin sexton).
Paul George (stating he wasn't going to resign with Indiana) getting traded for Victor Oladipo/Sabonis (draft)

Name me one player with 3-4 years left not injured in was in the 20s coming off 3 straight all star nominations (not replacement), multiple times defensive player 1st teams getting traded for junk like what Timberwolves have to offer.

[MiltownHawkeye]

You can't really look at things so superficially can you?

1. If Simmons is the 4th best player on the Wolves, why wouldn't they be better than the Sixers where he was the 2nd best player? Is Embiid just individually so much better than KAT, your new savior Edwards, or DLO? Which leads to the second point:

2. What if Embiid gets injured? Still think those swaps are valuable?

3. And the real problem with your reliance on the Harden trade. 1. Harden had 1.5 years left on his contract and is 31. 2. Simmons has four years and is 25. So two big differences here. First, there was no guarantee Harden was going to extend so you had a real risk of him leaving - not even so much for the Nets but for everyone else who might otherwise bid thereby depressing the auction price. But more importantly, there is significant upside that the picks at the end of this deal will be very good because Brooklyn's core will be in their mid 30's at that point. The Wolves core would be significantly younger at the end of the picks and so there is much less upside to them.

TL/DR - Keep on misrepresenting things to make your trash offer seem legitimate.

Despite Harden’s own set of circumstances, if you think he has less value than Simmons…make your case. That take is pure laughable to me.

If you think Wolves will be better than 76ers, make your case. Not as laughable but, ok.

76ers will get a Simmons lite replacement for their win-now efforts (because Dame and Beal aren’t on the table).

What if Towns gets hurt? We can play the injury what if nonsense all day.

You really struggle with very basic concepts. You keep coming back to Harden and ask me to make a case why Simmons is more valuable. It really makes me wonder about your reading comprehension because my entire argument wasn't that Simmons was more valuable than Harden but demonstrating why your package is significantly less value than Harden's. And that's before we even get to the fact that the Nets sent out Allen (who returned another first) and Levert (who returned Oladipo but Houston doing something dumb doesn't reflect the price the Nets paid).

But yes, we could keep going all day because that's what happens when someone continuously misrepresents facts or moves the goalposts to keep an argument they are losing going. And I choose not to engage with you further.

I wouldn't say he's losing this argument because it's not exactly clear what your point even is. If you argue with someone just to argue eventually you'll find some loose threads to pick at in what they're saying but that doesn't mean they're "losing." Slamming the other person's "reading comprehension" constantly isn't really a good sign that you're making a convincing argument either.

The real reason comparing Simmons to Harden is a non-starter isn't service time or age, it's because Harden's team wasn't actively looking to move him due to poor performance or lack of clarity on how he helps a team win a championship. If you agree with the overall point that Simmons with 4 years left still doesn't have as much value as an out-of-shape Harden with under 2 years left then what is the problem?

[Scalabrine]

I think that Simmons is the perfect fit to pair with Minnesotas core of KAT/Russell/Edwards so the goal here is to get Simmons without giving those 3 up. They can't trade this years first because they didn't have a first rounder this past year because of the D'Lo trade but the rest of their picks are available.

There are reports that the Sixers are holding out for a Lillard trade but that just seems so far fetched to me at this point. Lillard is gonna command a Harden-like package and I doubt the Blaze rs would want to run it back with Simmons in place of Lillard. I think guys like McCollum, Fox, Brogdon are closer to Simmons value at this point and out of those 3 guys, the Pacers seem like the most likely team to be willing to get some younger pieces/draft picks/cap relief.

So how about:
The guys that make the most sense for the Sixers to be targeting are Malcolm Brogdon, De'Arron Fox, and CJ McCollum. I don't see a scenario where Lillard is being traded for Simmons at this point. In a deal that has the Wolves landing Simmons, I would say Brogdon would probably be the guy.

What about;
Sixers trade: Ben Simmons, Sixers Get: Brogdon, one of Beverly/Beasley and one of McDaniels/Vanderbilt, one of 23/25 FRP via Minny

Pacers trade: Malcolm Brogdon, Pacers get: one of Beverly/Beasley, Bolmaro, one of the Wolves 23/25 FRP, and 22 SRP (via Washington)

Wolves trade: Patrick Beverly, Malik Beasley, Leandro Bolmaro, one of Jarred Vanderbildt/Jaden McDaniels, FRP's from 23 and 25 (top 3 protected) Wolves get: Simmons

Sixers:
Embiid/Drummond/Tolliver
Harris/Niang/Vanderbildt
Green/Thybulle/Korkmaz
Beasley/Curry/Milton
Brogdon/Maxey/Springer

Pacers:
Turner/Bitadze/Jackson
Sabonis/Brissett/Craig
Warren/Holiday/Duarte
LeVert/Lamb/Bolmaro
Beverly/McConnell/Sumner

Wolves:
KAT/Reid
Prince/McDaniels/Layman
Edwards/Layman
Russell/Okogi/Nowell
Simmons/Russell/McLaughlin

Sixers get two starters that fit nicely next to Embiid who can score/shoot and not need to be subbed out in crunch time due to being a negative offensively. They also get a first round pick that has a good chance to be a lotto pick because its the Wolves.

Pacers shuffle the deck a little and get some nice assets for a guy that isn't taking them past the 1st round. The team doesn't get much worse in my opinion but also gets 1 nice young players a 1st rounder, a solid 2nd rounder plus a starter in Beasley or Beverly to plug into Brogdons spot.

Wolves get their guy. He's a great fit next to D'Lo and Edwards because he can allow them to play off the ball on offense while being big enough to defend the other teams best perimeter player no matter position he is. Having a lineup with Simmons, Prince, Okogi is gonna allow them to have a lineup that can get some stops too.

Is there anyone else that you think could be out there that helps the Sixers win now while also getting the Wolves Ben Simmons?

The stepian rule only applies to picks going forward. Last year doesn't apply. Wolves can trade 2022 pick.

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Ah, for some reason I didn't realize that... and I consider myself pretty cap/cba savvy. Huh.

[DragonSlayer]

Edwards is not available.

Doesn’t matter what you think. If the price for Simmons is Edwards then Gersson moonwalks out the room throwing Morey the double bird.

Is that a boots on the ground opinion? I'm just wondering... Not high on Simmons nor Edwards, just surprised Gersson wouldn't sniff at that

[Wolveswin]

Despite Harden’s own set of circumstances, if you think he has less value than Simmons…make your case. That take is pure laughable to me.

If you think Wolves will be better than 76ers, make your case. Not as laughable but, ok.

76ers will get a Simmons lite replacement for their win-now efforts (because Dame and Beal aren’t on the table).

What if Towns gets hurt? We can play the injury what if nonsense all day.

You really struggle with very basic concepts. You keep coming back to Harden and ask me to make a case why Simmons is more valuable. It really makes me wonder about your reading comprehension because my entire argument wasn't that Simmons was more valuable than Harden but demonstrating why your package is significantly less value than Harden's. And that's before we even get to the fact that the Nets sent out Allen (who returned another first) and Levert (who returned Oladipo but Houston doing something dumb doesn't reflect the price the Nets paid).

But yes, we could keep going all day because that's what happens when someone continuously misrepresents facts or moves the goalposts to keep an argument they are losing going. And I choose not to engage with you further.

I wouldn't say he's losing this argument because it's not exactly clear what your point even is. If you argue with someone just to argue eventually you'll find some loose threads to pick at in what they're saying but that doesn't mean they're "losing." Slamming the other person's "reading comprehension" constantly isn't really a good sign that you're making a convincing argument either.

The real reason comparing Simmons to Harden is a non-starter isn't service time or age, it's because Harden's team wasn't actively looking to move him due to poor performance or lack of clarity on how he helps a team win a championship. If you agree with the overall point that Simmons with 4 years left still doesn't have as much value as an out-of-shape Harden with under 2 years left then what is the problem?

The only reason to compare Simmons to Harden or Holiday is NBA trade precedent and comparable value evaluations (when considering a picks based package Wolves would be offering). Of course every trade is unique with own set of unique circumstances that all have to considered by all parties. But Harden and Holiday pick packages are great comps.

[JojoSlimbiid]

There is no trade between Phl and Min that doesn't include Edwards. I don't even know why I keep seeing stuff like that.

[Wolveswin]

You can't really look at things so superficially can you?

1. If Simmons is the 4th best player on the Wolves, why wouldn't they be better than the Sixers where he was the 2nd best player? Is Embiid just individually so much better than KAT, your new savior Edwards, or DLO? Which leads to the second point:

2. What if Embiid gets injured? Still think those swaps are valuable?

3. And the real problem with your reliance on the Harden trade. 1. Harden had 1.5 years left on his contract and is 31. 2. Simmons has four years and is 25. So two big differences here. First, there was no guarantee Harden was going to extend so you had a real risk of him leaving - not even so much for the Nets but for everyone else who might otherwise bid thereby depressing the auction price. But more importantly, there is significant upside that the picks at the end of this deal will be very good because Brooklyn's core will be in their mid 30's at that point. The Wolves core would be significantly younger at the end of the picks and so there is much less upside to them.

TL/DR - Keep on misrepresenting things to make your trash offer seem legitimate.

Despite Harden’s own set of circumstances, if you think he has less value than Simmons…make your case. That take is pure laughable to me.

If you think Wolves will be better than 76ers, make your case. Not as laughable but, ok.

76ers will get a Simmons lite replacement for their win-now efforts (because Dame and Beal aren’t on the table).

What if Towns gets hurt? We can play the injury what if nonsense all day.

Towns if offense, he doesn't play great defense. Sure a lot of today's nba has to deal with switches and multiple wing defenders but a big man is the last line of defense (literally). So Towns be below average means Minnesota is behind the 8 ball already.

Huge difference when Embiid goes down. They are losing their offense and defense. No way to make that up. So Minnesota is roughly the same team with or without Towns injured.

As for Harden, he was 1.5 years away from choosing his own destination. Just look at the history of NBA all star (healthy) players getting traded. Those with 2 or less years often get traded for much less than their true value
Kyrie Irving traded for injured IT/Jae Crowder and a future pick (turned out to be 8th overall/Colin sexton).
Paul George (stating he wasn't going to resign with Indiana) getting traded for Victor Oladipo/Sabonis (draft)

Name me one player with 3-4 years left not injured in was in the 20s coming off 3 straight all star nominations (not replacement), multiple times defensive player 1st teams getting traded for junk like what Timberwolves have to offer.

As for picks, doesn’t matter that you think it is “junk.” Fact is, Wolves will offer less quantity than Harden cost Nets, and probably slightly more than what Bucks spent on Holiday. That is using NBA trade precedent and most recent like comps for a picks based package as compared to another picks based package.

And I stand by the quality of 1sts/swaps offered by Wolves are higher quality than Bucks or Nets (see my post above breaking it down).

If you think the 3rd team win-now asset Wolves go get in any scenario here is junk, have that take. We know 76ers don’t want just picks. But doesn’t mean Wolves spend more draft capital and get into Harden pick package territory just because. Simmons does not justify that (no matter his resume you listed).

[Wolveswin]

There is no trade between Phl and Min that doesn't include Edwards. I don't even know why I keep seeing stuff like that.

Of course there is, don’t be silly.

Harden and Holiday (amongst others over time) were acquired with just picks package. We know a 3rd team is required because 76ers don’t want just picks. With that said, a 3rd team is needed if Edwards is involved too. 76ers aren’t offering Embiid a sophomore as his running mate.

[kuclas]

Sixers need win now talent not future picks. And win now isn't salary dumps like Wiggins/CJ. They need iso creator guard play in the half court who can at least hold their own on defense (doesn' t have to be a great defender but can't be a poor defender like Seth Curry because you can't play them both on the same floor at the same time). Very few of those types of players are available. That's why it's so hard to find a package for simmons.

So a third team will need to be available. Basically sixers need someone like a Brodgon PLUS Beasley/future first round picks for Simmons. Brodgon is so injury prone so he's extremly risky but those two salaries would fit

It won't solve all of the sixers problems because I'm hesistant to put anyting on Bealsey either because he's one step away from being thrown out of the NBA and while he's a very good shooter, a lot of those points are empty stats on a bad team.

[jpatrick]

Edwards is not available.

Doesn’t matter what you think. If the price for Simmons is Edwards then Gersson moonwalks out the room throwing Morey the double bird.

Is that a boots on the ground opinion? I'm just wondering... Not high on Simmons nor Edwards, just surprised Gersson wouldn't sniff at that

The local thought, even amongst those that follow the team, is the front office probably values Edwards even more than KAT. Or at least as much.

People underestimate what he did in the second half of last year with no summer league, limited practice time, and a coaching change mid-year. He’s really really good. And unlike the thought coming into the year, he’s a really great kid and hard worker (which I question about some of the other wolves).