Chuck Texas & PMOTT3's Early Off-Season Review -- Toronto Raptors

[dalton749]

out: Johnson, Williams, Vasquez, Hansborough, Hayes, Fields, Steisma
in: Carroll, Joseph, Wright, Scola, Biyombo, Powell, 2017 1st
looking at that as a big trade and its clear it was a very good offseason, 4 good players under 23 and a 1st plus 2 good vets
stopping NY from getting better, having the foresight to see how close deandre jordan was to leaving and grabing the clips pick, and getting a meeting with Aldridge was a big step in the right direction

[Susp3ct]

Losing Lou was an addition by subtraction. He did score but he chugged away and broke up the team chemistry and played zero D.

And our biggest need is a starting PF

Lou's plus minus was great, he couldn't help it if guys sucked when he was on the bench. But yeah everyone thinks he hurt chemistry. I guess he was hurting chemistry of the guys who were playing when he was on the bench somehow maybe?

By this respect Jonas was great for chemistry. When he sat the raptors would tend to go on runs.

Team chemistry is more than just on court factors. We started playing a lot more hero ball last year, which Lou did quite a bit. He would chuck chuck chuck even when his shot wasnt falling, and that was the theme throughout the team last year. The year before the ball movement was a lot better, addition of Lou definitely had a negative impact. Im sure ATL knew what they were doing when they traded him away for a 2nd rounder.

[Dukenukem23]

Fire Casey and replace him with a more competent coach.

Trade dd for a PF upgrade.

Sign or trade for sg/sf gunner off the bench that can rain threes.

Do this and it's an easy A++++

[OAKLEY_2]

Gotta say I am more surprised by the 12 mil Ainge gave Amir or the Enes Kanter max madness than anything Masai dished out.

Carroll. We wanted to be players in free agency and we were. That alone has value. To me that was the offseason. Being the winning hand for an important wing free agent. We didn't win LMA but neither did a few other competitive teams.

Biyombo. Dirt cheap acquisition for a position of need and most importantly adding more youth at 22 years old.

Scola. Granted this is an aged Scola but have always thought of Scola as a quality big man. Massive upgrade on Hansborough.

Joseph. The kid is 23 so really what is not to like? Add him to Delon Wright 23, Biyombo 22, Jonas 23, Powell 22, Bebe 22, Bruno 19 and injured Daniels 23.

Delon Wright. Massive sleeper pick. He will be our PG of the future. As mentioned 23 as well.

Better for them to finish 7th and actually grow this youth than finish 4th or 5th with less upside.

A-

[engageTHEmasses]

EDIT: And first off-- sorry mates-- GREAT JOB, GUYS. Loved the post and the time and thought put into it. Thanks so much.

Spoiler:

I'll make a few quick comments in regards to some of the outside opinions posted in the thread:

Bismack Biyombo is not really undersized by any means, with his wingspan (nearly 7'7") and athleticism he plays far bigger than he actually is height wise. he is not only one of the better rim protectors in the NBA (something Toronto desperately has needed) but he's also one of the most efficient screeners, something him and Amir had in common (but Bismack makes 9 million less and is 6+ years younger). check out Charlotte's +/- and defensive ratings after Al Jefferson was injured and Bis replaced him in the starting lineup.

Luis Scola basically replaces Amir Johnson's production completely (in 6 less minutes per game no less) and has one of the better and more consistent mid-range games when comparing him to other 4s.

Amir is deservedly one of the biggest fan favorites in the franchises history and a consummate glue guy but his injuries severely hindered him all year (both his offensive production and defensive impact have been replaced and eclipsed entirely by the above two additions).

the losses of Vasquez/Williams in terms of bench scoring are both completely overstated, they were supremely non-efficient players and brought next to nothing on the defensive end, Toronto not only improved defensively with the additions of Delon Wright/Cory Joseph but also added more size, efficiency and the ability to play within team concepts (Casey likes to run 3-guard lineups and Lowry/Joseph/Wright is by far a better one on both sides of the ball than Lowry/Williams/Vasquez).

Iso Lou's offensive spark will be missed at times but he shot us out of games as many times as he won them for us, losing GV/Lou were additions by subtraction in terms of removing some of the stale offensive sets, defensive lapses and inefficiency from Toronto.

Cory Joseph is 23 years old and set to make 7 million this season, our other two former backup guards (Vasquez/Williams) are set to make 6.7 mill and 7 mill respectively this upcoming season, when you put that into perspective he is not by any means overpaid IMO. he plays within himself and a system making him naturally a better fit as an actual two-way player that knows there is more than one side of the court that needs to be played (he also put up solid numbers as a starter when Parker was injured).

every single move Masai has made were upgrades over the players they will replace, this team is a much better one today than the one that exited the playoffs this past season.

B+ off-season at the minimum.

I agree with pretty much all of this. Three points I want to reiterate, as I've seen them posted here and in various places online this off-season:

1. The Raps will miss Lou
2. Demarre will flounder outside of Atlanta's system
3. Joseph is a gross overpay (AND will flounder outside of SA's system)

First, we will definitely miss that scoring at times, but as has been mentioned here-- Lou was a chucker, and REALLY changed the way this club played basketball. The identity of this team shifted heavily, and many people (including management, it seems) traced that, to some degree, to Lou's ISO ball. Getting rid of Lou (and GV) AND adding the players we did will really help our scoring attack balance out, and-- at least in part, I believe-- help negate some of the scoring we're losing.

And that leads to part two, because I think our system IS changing and with the additions by subtraction in Lou and GV, Demarre is going to have a decent chance to duplicate his ATL form in TO. With more ball movement and smarter sets (a maybe, while Casey's still around), as well as a revitalized top defense, I think Demarre is going to do better in TO than some might think offensively. But time will tell for sure.

That also applies to Cory Joseph, who is coming from a similar system to Demarre. I actually think adding Demarre and Joseph will affect the Raptors more than the Raptors will affect Demarre and Joseph. It's clear we want a better defensive club, and we are going to be getting that ball moving again. I know I'm in the minority here, but I don't think Joseph WAS that much of an overpay. When the cap goes up, and he settles into his role, he'll be a fair value player. He does what he does well and plays within himself. I have zero problems with his deal, though I understand why it seems so atrocious to some.

I think Toronto did have to pay a premium to make sure it landed its guys, and given the VERY clear intentions of these off-season moves, I think that's justified.

I think I settled on a B or B+

[Ponchos]

The Raps will miss Lou and Amir much more than most of the fans here think.

Amir is one of the best screen setters in the league. It doesn't show up on the stat sheet, and it will make getting quality looks much harder without him.

The board has turned against Lou and seem to blame him for everything wrong with the Raps. I find it difficult to believe.

We'll see if Carroll and Scola/Joseph add enough to the team to offset the losses of Amir and Lou, but I doubt it.

C

[JWiLL02]

I think a lot of the guys who think Lou is a huge loss to the team are just looking from the outside in and basing a lot of it off his numbers and 6th man award.

Grevis-Lou was just terrible defensively. Guards waltzed into the paint without any resistance and we frequently had those guys out there with Patterson/Hansbrough/Hayes attempting to protect the basket. The results were as you'd expect and it was tough to watch.

It was also tough to watch Lou in the playoffs attempting to draw fouls on the perimeter. There's a reason his game has never translated well to the playoffs throughout his career.

If Ross can mature and come back with more focus and athleticism after getting those bone spurs removed, he'll do a good enough job replacing some of the outgoing bench scoring, while being far superior on the other end of the floor. He's also a far better corner 3pt shooter and off ball player in general which is vital when you have a penetrating guard like Cojo/Wright on the floor.

I just like the overall balance of this team a lot more than I did last year. I think the ability to get stops will allow the team to actually get out in transition and take advantage of their athleticism.

Lastly, this team only had Lowry and DeMar healthy and playing together for about 15 games to start last year. So long as both of these guys are at 100% they'll be a far better team than they were the 2nd half of last season. This is more important than anything else, really.

[TdotForLife]

C+ seems low.

They had one of the 2-3 best trades of the offseason, got their main target, and added some interesting bench pieces. I think it was one of the better below radar off seasons.

I did state that i loved the Vasquez trade, thought they pulled off a Sam Hinkie-like heist in completing it. There were other reasons into me giving them a C+ though. I don't see an aging Scola and undersized C Biyombo making much of a difference. I think not retaining Lou is going to haunt them. The dude just won 6MOTY and was a productive scorer off the bench that had plenty of clutch moments for them last season. The overpays for Joseph and Carroll turned me off as well.

Wow Lou was a pain in the ass. Have you seen his ISO 3's? That 6MOTY is hiding his true game. The guy gave us nothing in the playoffs. He chucks like crazy and he has taught players on our team to chuck shots as well. On top of that, his defense is ****. I'm happy we didn't retain him. Better ball movement this season will make us better offensively.

[Psubs]

C+ seems low.

They had one of the 2-3 best trades of the offseason, got their main target, and added some interesting bench pieces. I think it was one of the better below radar off seasons.

I did state that i loved the Vasquez trade, thought they pulled off a Sam Hinkie-like heist in completing it. There were other reasons into me giving them a C+ though. I don't see an aging Scola and undersized C Biyombo making much of a difference. I think not retaining Lou is going to haunt them. The dude just won 6MOTY and was a productive scorer off the bench that had plenty of clutch moments for them last season. The overpays for Joseph and Carroll turned me off as well.

Biyombo as a rim-protector and rebounder against backups is a huge upgrade over Hansborough and Hayes.

Scola is aging farely well. He's super durable which Amir wasn't despite his big heart and toughness.

The better defense will create more stops and turnovers that could lead to fastbreaks, so they won't miss Lou Williams as much. Which was the last championship team to have the 6MOTY on their roster? Vinnie Johnson? Also, Cory Joseph shot 50% last season.

[Psubs]

Grevis-Lou was just terrible defensively. Guards waltzed into the paint without any resistance and we frequently had those guys out there with Patterson/Hansbrough/Hayes attempting to protect the basket. The results were as you'd expect and it was tough to watch.

Exactly and when your rim protectors with them were Hansborough and Hayes...

[House12]

The Raps will miss Lou and Amir much more than most of the fans here think.

Amir is one of the best screen setters in the league. It doesn't show up on the stat sheet, and it will make getting quality looks much harder without him.

The board has turned against Lou and seem to blame him for everything wrong with the Raps. I find it difficult to believe.

We'll see if Carroll and Scola/Joseph add enough to the team to offset the losses of Amir and Lou, but I doubt it.

C

I am more optimistic than Ponchos. I think the upgrade in defense will make the Raptors a better team. But their record will be roughly the same.

Amir:
I agree that the team will miss Amir, but his health cannot be relied upon. The Amir that we saw last season was hobbled by injuries. He shot a high percentage, was good in the two man game, and a great screen setter. He always put in an efficient performance in the playoffs. He was also our goto defender for 4s and 5s. Amir was my favourite Raptor and I will miss him.

However, I am okay with not resigning him because of the price of his contract and the fact that his body is in obvious decline. A key detail to note is that Amir only played 26.4min per game while an average starter plays around 32mins. This means that replacing him will be easier. Much of what Amir offered can be replaced by Luis Scola. In fact, last year, Scola had a higher PER and .126 WS/48 (20mins/game) compared to Amir at .124 WS/48(26mins/game).

For tougher defensive matchups, we can sub in Bismack Biyombo. A combination of these two should be able to give us 80% of Amir at half the price. If Amir somehow became healthy and improved his summer threes then he'll obviously be better, but I'm willing to bet that Amir seriously hurt his ankles.

Lou:
Lou is a good player, but as many people mentioned, he skewed the Raptors towards ISO ball. The lack of defense in the guard positions really killed us last year. I think a lot of what Lou gave us will be made up for by giving JV more shots and playing more team ball. Lou sometimes caught fire last year and simply won games for us. However, he could also shoot us out of games. He is a high variance player who was neutralized during the playoffs where his PER went from 19.9 to 11.6.

Lou had 6.6WS last year which is great for a bench player, about 4 wins more than the average bench player. However, I think our starting 5 fits together better due to the increased emphasis on defense. We should be worse in the regular season but better in the playoffs.


Grade: B
Masai's strategy seems to be treadmill as a 46-54 win team and hope to hit a homerun through free agency or have one of our prospects pan out either as a star or trade bait (JV, Bruno). The positive is that we are a high-level treadmill which I prefer to sucking like Philly or New York.

[House12]

I'd also like to point out that PP and JV were a train wreck defensively last year. Hopefully Carrol will have a trickle down effect on the defense and both JV and PP improve. Look for Toronto to have a slow start until they figure this out.

[GoSu]

Great thread OP! Looking forward to the rest!

As a Raptors fan I've voted C+ (could be B- as well).

I love seeing Lou and Vasquez gone, not gonna miss their chucking one bit. Sad to see Amir gone, but Scola is great addition and for 1/4 of Amirs price he's a steal. Bismack is obviously nice and cheap addition. Delon Wright and Normal Powell seem like above average prospects.

So what is missing for the higher grade?
1)New head coach hiring should have been one of the top priorities. Keeping Casey is terrible idea, but no one expects him to still be the HC past the January.
2)Starting PF. While Patterson and Scola both have their perks, none of them are starter caliber.
3)Overpaying. Caroll was good fit in Atlanda, I don't expect him being near close to that in Toronto, so 15mil per year contract disgusts me quite a bit. CoJo signing was more of a marketing stunt, as Masai declared many times that he will get Canadian for the team. Instead of signing with "hometown discount" he got paid extra, I'm not Ok with this.

It's interesting to see that Raptor fans seems to be more pessimistic than general opinion in this thread. Now I can't wait to see how Knicks thread will turn out

[MEDIC]

The 3 biggest things that will make or break the Raptors season:

1. Can Lowry get back to his allstar form (basically the way he played from Jan 2014 to Dec 2014)?

2. Can they get back to being a top 10 defensive team?

3. Can someone pick up the slack defensively now that Amir is gone?

Let's not forget that Casey is a defensive coach. This is the first season that a GM has gone out & specifically targeted defensive players to get the most out of his defensive style.

People keep mentioning the loss of Lou, but this is the same team that had John Salmons taking Lou's spot on the roster the season prior. A season where they had a top 10 defense, won 48 games & had on of the best NBA records post Rudy Gay trade. They also came within one bucket of getting out of the 1st round of the playoffs, going 7 games.

The post Rudy Gay 2013-14 team was better than last years team & that was without Lou Williams.

I also expect JV to improve this season both defensively & offensively.

[Troubadour]

Fire Casey and replace him with a more competent coach.

Trade dd for a PF upgrade.

Sign or trade for sg/sf gunner off the bench that can rain threes.

Do this and it's an easy A++++

What would trading DeRozan accomplish? Sure, you might upgrade the PF position, but you would have a gaping hole in the backcourt.

[IMAN5]

pretty spot on, good job guys.

[ConSarnit]

The 3 biggest things that will make or break the Raptors season:

1. Can Lowry get back to his allstar form (basically the way he played from Jan 2014 to Dec 2014)?

2. Can they get back to being a top 10 defensive team?

3. Can someone pick up the slack defensively now that Amir is gone?

Let's not forget that Casey is a defensive coach. This is the first season that a GM has gone out & specifically targeted defensive players to get the most out of his defensive style.

People keep mentioning the loss of Lou, but this is the same team that had John Salmons taking Lou's spot on the roster the season prior. A season where they had a top 10 defense, won 48 games & had on of the best NBA records post Rudy Gay trade. They also came within one bucket of getting out of the 1st round of the playoffs, going 7 games.

The post Rudy Gay 2013-14 team was better than last years team & that was without Lou Williams.

I also expect JV to improve this season both defensively & offensively.

I think this post sums it up pretty well. Out of the major talking points being mentioned:

Lou: I don't think he will be missed at all

Amir: this loss could hurt. Really need JV to pick up the slack defensively, hopefully he can make that jump.

A lot of this season hinges on JV and if he can become a solid rim protector. If he can do that they should be better than last year. They will almost assuredly get better defense from the perimeter. They overpaid role players (Carroll and Joseph) but that's the Raps M.O. Hopefully it doesn't bite them as it has in the past (Kapono, Turk, Fields). Carroll I can accept but Joseph is an overpay (decent backup pg's are usually available for cheap, plus they drafted Wright. Maybe they think they can move Lowry in the near future, who knows).

[RealityIsDemar]

The Raps will miss Lou and Amir much more than most of the fans here think.

Amir is one of the best screen setters in the league. It doesn't show up on the stat sheet, and it will make getting quality looks much harder without him.

The board has turned against Lou and seem to blame him for everything wrong with the Raps. I find it difficult to believe.

We'll see if Carroll and Scola/Joseph add enough to the team to offset the losses of Amir and Lou, but I doubt it.

C

"Amir is one of the best screen setters in the league. It doesn't show up on the stat sheet"

There's a stat for PnR setters, and screening and Bismack Biyombo is rated higher than Amir. Amir will be missed but he was a liability to get injured. He was a great screen setter, but we're getting just as much of a competent screen setter in Biyombo and there is a stat for that so you're just kinda speaking out of your ass there.

"The board has turned against Lou and seem to blame him for everything wrong with the Raps. I find it difficult to believe."

Lou was fun while he lasted but he isn't someone who can play team basketball. Something we actually want to do. Look at San Antonio or Atlanta they get great shots because they passed the ball. (No wonder Atlanta let Lou go for free). To become a better team we desperately needed a change of scenery from Lou.

"We'll see if Carroll and Scola/Joseph add enough to the team to offset the losses of Amir and Lou, but I doubt it."

You forgot Biyombo who will help ease away the loss of Amir (atleast for the sake of PnR setting). But what you're not stressing is the fact that by adding Carroll it helps everyone.

Old:
Lowry/Vasquez
DD/Lou
Ross/JJ
Amir/PP
Val/?

Adding Carroll lets Ross go to his natural position of SG and replace Lou. It not only helps the Raps but it helps Ross as well. Scola will be able to give some minutes at the 4 and will provide adequate spacing and rebounding next to Val for about 15 MPG, helps the loss of Patterson not being on the bench. Joseph replaces GV easily and Ross helps replace the gap in 3pt shooting from GV -> Joseph. Also, Carroll and JJ will get minutes at the 4, helping the loss of Amir being felt less and less.

Overall the fits are way better and by adding more players, that allows Ross to go back to his natural position. He get miles better defensively and not for that much of a loss on the Offensive end.

Overall, the lineup of:

Lowry/Joseph/Wright
DeRozan/Ross/Powell
Carroll/Johnson/Caboclo
Patterson/Scola/Roberts
Valanciunas/Biyombo/Nogueira

is probably the best Raptor team we've ever had.

[Hawk Eye]

hey raps fans, just wanted to say thanks for all thefeedback. You guys really blew up this tthread. CT and I just finished going over the wizards so feel free to give your input and grades in that review as well.

[Shabazz]

The 3 biggest things that will make or break the Raptors season:

1. Can Lowry get back to his allstar form (basically the way he played from Jan 2014 to Dec 2014)?

2. Can they get back to being a top 10 defensive team?

3. Can someone pick up the slack defensively now that Amir is gone?

Let's not forget that Casey is a defensive coach. This is the first season that a GM has gone out & specifically targeted defensive players to get the most out of his defensive style.

People keep mentioning the loss of Lou, but this is the same team that had John Salmons taking Lou's spot on the roster the season prior. A season where they had a top 10 defense, won 48 games & had on of the best NBA records post Rudy Gay trade. They also came within one bucket of getting out of the 1st round of the playoffs, going 7 games.

The post Rudy Gay 2013-14 team was better than last years team & that was without Lou Williams.

I also expect JV to improve this season both defensively & offensively.

Valanciunas' growth will determine a whole lot this upcoming season. It's a severely overlooked part of the team and these previews. Less offensive perimeter players should mean more touches and plays through JV. Ball movement and shot distribution will be huge in shifting the offensive philosophy away from relentless ISOs. Lowry and DeRozan will both need to improve their shot selection for this to happen.