Vegas Team Win Lines (Prediction time!)

[Prospect Dong]

William Hill finally started accepting season win total bets. here are the lines (left OP/EPSN = right William Hill):

Cleveland Cavaliers 56.5 = 57
Atlanta Hawks 49.5 = 50.5
Chicago Bulls 49.5 = 49.5
Miami Heat 45.5 = 46.5
Toronto Raptors 45.5 = 46.5
Washington Wizards 45.5 = 45.5
Milwaukee Bucks 43.5 = 45
Boston Celtics 42.5 = 42.5
-------------------------
Indiana Pacers 42.5 = 40.5
Detroit Pistons 33.5 = 36.5
Charlotte Hornets 32.5 = 31.5
Orlando Magic 32.5 = 34
New York Knicks 31.5 = 28.5
Brooklyn Nets 28.5 = 29.5
Philadelphia 76ers 21.5 = 21


Golden State Warriors 60.5 = 59.5
San Antonio Spurs 58.5 = 57.5
Oklahoma City Thunder 57.5 = 56.5
Los Angeles Clippers 56.5 = 56.5
Houston Rockets 54.5 = 55.5
Memphis Grizzlies 50.5 = 51
New Orleans Pelicans 47.5 = 48.5
Utah Jazz 40.5 = 42.5
---------------------------
Dallas Mavericks 38.5 = 37
Phoenix Suns 36.5 = 36
Sacramento Kings 30.5 = 36
Los Angeles Lakers 29.5 = 29
Denver Nuggets 26.5 = 26.5
Portland Trail Blazers 26.5 = 26.5
Minnesota Timberwolves 25.5 = 26.5

heavy moves:
Pistons from 33.5 to 36.5
Knicks from 31.5 to 28.5
Kings from 30.5 to 36

a reminder that sports books set the lines based on what the public bets, not what expert analysts project. sports books make their money on the spread. if half the people bet higher and half the people bet lower, then they are guaranteed to make money.

most line moves tended to push teams towards average (high win totals dropped, low win totals raised).

with that in mind, I bet even money across the Timberwolves, Trail Blazers, Nuggets, and Lakers all being under, as I can't imagine a top heavy west having every team with 27 wins. that seems to be a safer bet than picking individual teams to go over/under.

betting the under on the entire southwest division also makes sense, as that division is a gauntlet and each team will have to play 16 in-division games throughout the season - but I'm not confident enough to bet that.

Based on these lines:

I'm going to take the under on the hawks - I just feel like there's a lot of ways that it can go wrong, and only one way it can go right. I'm not that confident, though.

I'm going to take the under on the lakers, even though they're fighting not to give up a pick. There's a lot of weight on Roy Hibbert and Kobe's shoulders, and a lot of ways that can go wrong.

I'm going to take the under on the blazers, just because I think they'll be tanking by the end of the season, maybe even by the start. That can get a team down to the low 20's pretty easily.

I'll take the over on the bucks, since I like their offseason, coach and stars. Over on the cavs, since I think they'll click pretty early this year and just roll over a lot of eastern teams. And, hell, over on the sixers. It's time for them to start putting the pieces together.

[nykballa2k4]

Team I'm taking
WEST

Golden State Warriors 60.5 Over
San Antonio Spurs 58.5 Over
Oklahoma City Thunder 57.5 Under
Los Angeles Clippers 56.5 Under
Houston Rockets 54.5 Even
Memphis Grizzlies 50.5 Over
New Orleans Pelicans 47.5 Under
Utah Jazz 40.5 Even
---------------------------
Dallas Mavericks 38.5 Under
Phoenix Suns 36.5 Over*
Sacramento Kings 30.5 Over
Los Angeles Lakers 29.5 Under
Denver Nuggets 26.5 Over
Portland Trail Blazers 26.5 Even
Minnesota Timberwolves 25.5 Under


EAST

Cleveland Cavaliers 56.5 Over
Atlanta Hawks 49.5 Under
Chicago Bulls 49.5 Under*
Miami Heat 45.5 Even
Toronto Raptors 45.5 Under
Washington Wizards 45.5 Over*
Milwaukee Bucks 43.5 Over
Boston Celtics 42.5 Under
-------------------------
Indiana Pacers 42.5 Over
Detroit Pistons 33.5 Over
Charlotte Hornets 32.5 Under
Orlando Magic 32.5 Under
New York Knicks 31.5 Over*
Brooklyn Nets 28.5 Even
Philadelphia 76ers 21.5 Even




* = my locks
Suns: I know they will do about 5 games better than listed. They have 2 good guards, capable wings, and a good center rotation. They should be in the playoff hunt.

Wizards: Another team that should be in the 50 win talk. Wall and Beal got a year older/better. the PF position is still a weakness, Porter is also a year better. Easily a top 4 in the East.

Bulls: Other teams being better than odds means some teams have to do worse. Bulls age makes them more fragile. It can often be good to follow a specialist coach because a team can keep what it was doing well and add a new dimension. Unfortunately Bulls management does a poor job routinely in getting support players and now with a new coach, new system and the vaunted defense taking a hit from father time, Bulls stand to drop to the bottom of the conference if some of these teams take that next step.

Knicks: Call me what you want, but this team should be 10 wins greater than they are listed here. Not saying world beaters, but with a well constructed club, and a healthy Melo, this team is in the 40 win conversation, not the 30 win. Easily fighting for the playoffs.

[eitanr]

Too Low - (i.e. take over) Phoenix, Boston, Charlotte

Suns added Chandler to a team that saw similar wins last year. Also another year for Len, and Knight full season should help. Celts were a 24-12 team down stretch, they def win at least mid 40s. Charlotte's improvements should at least make them sniff the playoffs.

Too High - (i.e. take under) Spurs, Nets, Lakers

Spurs usually don't go nutty during regular season, especially now with guys aging. Nets are horrid, no way they crack above 20s with J. Jack/Johnson/and oft injured Lopez trio. Lakers are getting embarrassed while playing NBA rotations in pre-season...easy sign for things to come.

[damecurry]

Golden State Warriors 60.5 - Over, I know it's a lot but I see no reason for a 7 game drop off, I predict 62 or so.
San Antonio Spurs 58.5 - Under, due to resting players.
Oklahoma City Thunder 57.5 - too close to call, if I knew there'd be no serious injuries I'd go over.
Los Angeles Clippers 56.5 - too close, seems like the perfect line for them.
Houston Rockets 54.5 - Over, insanely low line.
Memphis Grizzlies 50.5 - Under, too old and thin to repeat last years good health and consistency.
New Orleans Pelicans 47.5 - Over, I think AD just needed to take that 1st step and is ready to carry this team to 50 wins.
Utah Jazz 40.5 - Over, like way way over, this teams gonna be even better than people think.
---------------------------
Dallas Mavericks 38.5 - Vastly under, have people looked at this roster? Without a 100% wes or parsons you're relying on dwill and dirk, not gonna win 39 games in the west that's just crazy.
Phoenix Suns 36.5 - Too close, mostly cause I have no prediction for this team, they're all over the place and could end anywhere.
Sacramento Kings 30.5 - Over, by a few, not a playoff team but they have a lot of talent.
Los Angeles Lakers 29.5 - Under, they're still really bad.
Denver Nuggets 26.5 - Under, they have better aggregate talent than this but no guy to close out the close games.
Portland Trail Blazers 26.5 - Over, Dame carries us to 30 wins.
Minnesota Timberwolves 25.5 - Over, man the west isn't that deep with playoff contenders this year but there are like four teams in the east worse than any single team in the west imo.

Best bets: HOU/NOP/Utah over; SAS/DAL/LAL under

Cleveland Cavaliers 56.5 - Over, they're that good.
Atlanta Hawks 49.5 - Under, way under, similar to dallas relying a lot on injured wings with limited replacements.
Chicago Bulls 49.5 - Over, no reason they get worse.
Miami Heat 45.5 - Over, injuries make it risky but still the talents way better than this
Toronto Raptors 45.5 - Too close, don't see any reason they won't go over other than the east being better.
Washington Wizards 45.5 - Too close, probably over but I've done a lot of those and with dudley's injury it's porter or bust at the 3 and that's scary.
Milwaukee Bucks 43.5 - Over, way over, I'm insanely high on milwaukee and on record predicting them finishing second in the conference which I stand by for now.
Boston Celtics 42.5 - Over they should be better by more than 3 wins over last year for sure.
-------------------------
Indiana Pacers 42.5 - Under, PG probably isn't 100% yet and what's their identity now?
Detroit Pistons 33.5 - Over, slightly, roster fits really well and I expect Jackson to prove he's at least sort of worth that money.
Charlotte Hornets 32.5 - Under, MKG injury really kills them, when they see playoffs are probably out of reach they might deal Al Jeff and tank.
Orlando Magic 32.5 - Too close, They'll be better but by 8 wins? Maybe, wouldn't bet either way.
New York Knicks 31.5 - Under, obvious, why on earth would they win 32 games? Having seen a lot of AA and rolo last season they are not the kind of guys that add 15 wins (obviously that's not the only factor but still this is a pretty bad roster.)
Brooklyn Nets 28.5 - Under, a brook injury and they're the bottom team in the league. If JJ has something left and lopez stays healthy they could go over 30 but I don't see it likely.
Philadelphia 76ers 21.5 - Probably about right, there aren't many teams they'll have to "out-tank," so they'll try to win and this is about what they're capable of winning imo.

Best Bets: NYK under... the east is a lot trickier, I like Mil over but most wouldn't understandably, Heat over and Pacers under as well I guess?

[DusterBuster]

I'd take the over on Portland pretty easily. I think they break 30 wins.

[bondom34]

I'd take the over on Portland pretty easily. I think they break 30 wins.

Yeah, I don't see them as a bottom feeder team. I think Denver, Minnesota, and the Lakers are all worse in the west alone and then whoever in the east.

[HartfordWhalers]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/deanondraft/status/655797768523522048[/tweet]

[giberish]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/deanondraft/status/655797768523522048[/tweet]

I'd expect that the lines would come in a few wins high. There are always a few teams that get crushed by injuries and end up WAY under, but you don't know who those teams are before the season. In general I'd expect there to be far more big misses under then big misses over, so that even if 15 teams go over and 15 go under their lines the league as a whole could to 20 wins under.

Of course there's also some homer betting involved that likely pushes lines up.

[HartfordWhalers]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/deanondraft/status/655797768523522048[/tweet]

I'd expect that the lines would come in a few wins high. There are always a few teams that get crushed by injuries and end up WAY under, but you don't know who those teams are before the season. In general I'd expect there to be far more big misses under then big misses over, so that even if 15 teams go over and 15 go under their lines the league as a whole could to 20 wins under.

Of course there's also some homer betting involved that likely pushes lines up.

I debated typing something exactly like that up, with 1 OKC type underperformance (or NYK) capable of offsetting a bunch of small overs. You put it better than I would have.

[Knosh]

Yeah the line should be set according to the median of the distribution (50% chance that the team wins more and 50% chance that the team wins less). That can be different from the mean (average wins) if the distribution isn't symmetric. The means add up to 1230, but the medians don't have to.

And I do like giberish's explanation for why the distribution should be asymmetric.