Spoiler:
HartfordWhalers wrote:Okay, so here goes my longer Philly take.
Philadelphia 76ers
The Plan
Get the assets that can lead to sustained success in the future (consistent 50+ win championship contender status)
The Grade
Incomplete/Unknown?
I'm a massive advocate of you cannot pass the buck and then go back and judge a trade after the fact, its about the value at the time. And so I should have a grade at the time.
But the team has 2 giant questions:
1) Who stays/goes of Okafor/Noel/Embiid
2) Who is in charge of deciding 1.
And it is not fully clear on either. Which for the second is bad news, and for the first makes it hard to judge the biggest offseason move -- picking Okafor.
So, last things first.
Front Office
Both Colangelo and Hinkie have in essence given public statements that they are the ones with final decision making and in charge. Not good. Colangelo has threatened to hire a replacement front office person to take over all the things that aren't the things that Hinkie does well. Hinkie has made a crack about Colangelo still being awake at night because he's so old he should be asleep.
It seems... untenable. Along the way Woj has weighed in and called Colangelo usurping Hinkie and taunted Brett Brown to public out Hinkie as lying on his Kendall Marshall comments to Lowe. And Brett Brown has refused to answer in a way that implicates the lying, but has also made a bunch of comments that side with Colangelo versus Hinkie on things like using a 15th man on Brand.
If I had to guess who the people that sometimes know stuff think is in control, its still Hinkie. Otherwise COlangelo would have hired Colangelo by now and pushed Hinkie out. But you also have Hinkie when asked if he would do the Saric trade and get a 1st a high 2nd and a guy viewed as equal prospect but 2 years away from coming again as he would 'vote yes' implying he doesn't get to just pick.
At the end of the day, an ownership group has final say. And thats true everywhere. But in a strong great franchise, that ownership group empowers a GM/president to be in charge and then steps back. Right now its not clear if Philly has that guy, if so who it is, or if they are entering the precipice of a poorly managed franchise where at any moment ownership could side with a different faction. Needless to say, I'm worried. Also, worried. And worried. Besides that? Worried. But...
Maybe Hinkie is still in charge (trade deadline sounded like it) and Colangelo is the public face and the detergent that makes everything look clean after the tanking. And appeases a minority owner. Maybe Colangelo is in charge fully and is just playfully referring to Saric as "that Euro guy' and really knows who the roster is and didn't just have to goggle them like he said. Maybe he is a great exec who does things for team USA and will bring the franchise to greatness and is already empowered.
Did I mention I'm worried?
Front Office stability -- F-/inc/????/ WTF/ help me/ this is all Okafor's fault.
Okafor:
This is probably the basis of everyone else's grades. Okafor's been incredibly gifted as a scorer. Help defense started horrible, but its been improving. Man defense is actually very good, which is why he has such good synergy stats. There is a lot of hate on Okafor for the on offs andthen the on off derived stats, but its mostly ignorant to be blunt. The Sixers defense gives up a similar fg% in comparable situations with Oakfor on and off, with the actual difference that the team gives up a metric ton more turnovers when Okafor plays as the guards are overmatched for playing a feed the post offense and the result is a bunch of easy baskets going back the other way.
So, on talent it seems a pretty good pick. And the upside is tantalizing as heck -- 17.5 points per game on a 53.6% TS% on the Sixers is amazing, least of all for a rookie. But the question is fit. Between Noel, Okafor, and Embiid seems hard to see that a trade doesn't happen. So, who goes? And is {Return for Okafor} + Noel better than guy other than Okafor + Noel? Is Okafor and {Return for Noel} better than other guy and Noel?
That is really hard to answer, and the ultimate question is not has Okafor looked like a good 3rd pick (imo he has, although obviously Porzingis has been intriguing). But its also worth mentioning, his drunken fisticuffs lead to the front office debacle explained above. So thats not good.
The Draft in general
The Sixers went into the draft with #3, #35, #37, #47, #58 and #60.
The end result:
Okafor at #3,
Holmes at #37,
JP Tokoto at #58 (cut).
1.5m cash, 2 future Knicks 2nd round picks (from 35).
#47 and #60 filler in Sac trade.
Holmes has been a revelation. He's been really really great and high energy, amazing on the offensive glass and then equally horrific on the defense glass. Definitely not 20 players showing more, so a nice steal.
Hard to argue the value of the #35 for 2 2nds and cash, and you can only bring in so many rookies. Granted, without the cash I dislike it, and cash never plays.
Free Agency
McConnell has flirted with being on and off the rookie ladder as a top 10 performer, which isn't so bad for an undrafted 21st invite to a 20 man camp. Was pretty torn up when the team cut Wood, but he is back. Marshall was signed to be the 'starting' pg, and he looks like a bad contract. Thankfully its all unguaranteed, and supposedly Milwaukee offered Ennis for him and Philly said no (i'm skeptical unless they wanted to salary dump Ennis).
Oh, and the team signed a 99 year old Brand.
Trades
-- The Sacramento trade was perfect for Philly, and enough ink has been spread on it. But it alone powers a solid grade.
-- The GS trade was solid. Moved JT 3.65m next year into this year and grabbed cash too.
-- The Ish Smith trade was a panic move as a result of the above mentioned front office debacles, and poor value. Ish had a 44% TS%, was an expiring min contract guy and was waived and Philly didn't claim him. 2 high 2nds is an overpay by more than double. The good news? Noel recovered and became a monster after it. And Okafor's efficiency took off as well. The bad news? Ish doesn't have a positive impact on team play, eats way too many possessions and is an expiring aging vet that relies on natural quickness who's contribution to winning this year is moving a 7 team win to 8 wins? =/ But ut did help the team's spirits recover short term.
-- The Joel Anthony trade that wasn't. This was picture perfect Hinkie. Hit the floor, save 15m, get a high 2nd, but for not now when you don't need it. And then it wasn't.
-- The nets pick trade that wasn't with Boston for Okafor? Talk about interesting non trade rumors, this one gets up there. And the best thing? Its uncertain even if it should or should not have happened.
The Review
Besides the front office uncertainty, the which big stays uncertainty and the what you get for which big that goes out uncertainty Philly has 2 big open questions:
Where does Philly pick after finally hopefully slating as the worst team
Does the Lakers pick convey at 4/5 or get rolled over.
Perhaps more than anything Philly did, the lotto ball odds will determine what most think of if the year was a success. But the front office questions are a dark cloud.
The bright side is how well Noel and Okafor have played, which I entirely skipped with Noel until here but still is important.
Solid write-up. I was hoping you would go more into Embiid though. What's the latest news with his injury/recovery? Is he expected to play next season? I heard he grew another couple inches as well. I've been searching YouTube to see if I can find like a 5 vs 5 practice type of video just so I can see how he is coming along but I can't find anything on the guy
