Winner: Caliban! Vegas Team Win Lines (Prediction time!) 2016 Version and Contest! (Entries Locked)

Post #61 » by **HartfordWhalers** » Thu Oct 20, 2016 5:31 pm

bondom34 wrote:Bump for 538:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-nba-predictions/

East:
CLE 57
TOR 51
BOS 47
CHA 45
CHI 45
DET 39
ORL38
WAS 38

ATL 38
IND 37
NYK 35
MIA 33
MKE 32
PHI 29
BKN 23

West:
GSW 68
SAS 53
UTA 51
OKC 50
LAC 48
MIN 46
PDX 46
HOU 45

DEN 40
DAL 37
MEM 35
NOP 35
SAC 34
PHX 31
LAL 25

Added the win totals into your quote.

Post #62 » by **HartfordWhalers** » Sat Oct 22, 2016 11:49 am

Still bumping for final predictions.

giberish · Post #63 » by **giberish** » Mon Oct 24, 2016 5:31 pm

Taking advantage of the extra time and data (esp injuries) since the lines came out to look good.

Code: Select all
Golden State 66
San Antonio 58
Cleveland 55
LA Clippers 51
Boston 53
Toronto 52
Utah 48
Portland 45
OKC 47
Detroit 45
Atlanta 44
Memphis 43
Indiana 44
Washington 39
Houston 43
Minnesota 37
Charlotte 43
Dallas 37
Milwaukee 32
Chicago 39
NYK 36
Miami 28
Orlando 33
New Orleans 36
Denver 40
Sacramento 35
Philly 26
Phoenix 27
Lakers 25
Brooklyn 23

Over picks: Denver, Charlotte. (I've got Toronto, Sac and BK each 2.5 above their lines but that's getting close). I like Denver better than Minny for next year as the young playoff contender in the west and think Charlotte's still a solid playoff team (with some concerns over their perimeter bench and MKG's health).

Under picks: Miami, Mil, Minny, Washington. I see strong 1-year tank potential for Miami though it's possible that Dragic carries them to a much better record. Mil is a bit of a cheat after Middleton's injury. I think Minny's further away than people think, though 80+ games from Rubio could make this look bad.

KqWIN · Post #64 » by **KqWIN** » Mon Oct 24, 2016 6:53 pm

Code: Select all

Golden Sate   70
LA Clippers   55
Cleveland   58
San Antonio   54
Boston   53
Toronto   48
Houston   48
Utah   47
Portland   47
Atlanta   44
Charlotte   43
OKC   45
Washington   43
Detroit   40
Dallas   40
Minnesota   39
Orlando   40
Memphis   37
Indiana   39
Chicago   38
NYK   36
Miami   33
Milwaukee   31
Denver   36
New Orleans   35
Sacramento   31
Brooklyn   23
Phoenix   30
Lakers   25
Philly   22

psman2 · Post #65 » by **psman2** » Mon Oct 24, 2016 6:59 pm

Golden State Warriors 66.5 - Under - 66 wins
Los Angeles Clippers 53.5 - Over - 54 wins
San Antonio Spurs 56.5 - Over - 57 wins
Utah Jazz 47.5 - Over - 48 wins
Memphis Grizzlies 43.5 - Over - 44 wins
Oklahoma City Thunder 45.5 - Under - 43 wins
Portland Trail Blazers 46.5 - Under - 43 wins
Houston Rockets 41.5 - Over - 47 wins
---------------------------
Dallas Mavericks 39.5 - Under - 35 wins
Minnesota Timberwolves 41.5 - Over - 42 wins
New Orleans Pelicans 36.5 - Under - 30 wins
Denver Nuggets 34.5 - Under - 33 wins
Sacramento Kings 32.5 - Over - 35 wins
Phoenix Suns 26.5 - Over - 27 wins
Los Angeles Lakers 24.5 - Under - 23 wins

East:
Cleveland Cavaliers 56.5 - Over - 58 wins
Boston Celtics 51.5 - Over - 52 wins
Toronto Raptors 49.5 - Over - 52 wins
Atlanta Hawks 43.5 - Over - 44 wins
Indiana Pacers 43.5 - Over- 47 wins
Detroit Pistons 45.5 - Under- 40 wins
Charlotte Hornets 39.5 - Over - 43 wins
Chicago Bulls 38.5 - Over - 39 wins
-------------------------
Washington Wizards 42.5 - Under - 38 wins
Milwaukee Bucks 39.5 - Under - 36 wins
New York Knicks 38.5 - Under - 37 wins
Orlando Magic 36.5 - Over - 37 wins
Miami Heat 36.5 - Under - 30 wins
Brooklyn Nets 20.5 - Over 25 wins
Philadelphia 76ers 27.5 - Under - 25 wins

Post #66 » by **HartfordWhalers** » Mon Oct 24, 2016 7:11 pm

Texas Chuck wrote:
HartfordWhalers wrote:
Texas Chuck wrote:West:

Golden State Warriors 66.5 - Under - 62 wins
San Antonio Spurs 56.5 - Under - 56 wins
Los Angeles Clippers 53.5 - Over - 64 wins
Utah Jazz 47.5 - Over - 54 wins
Portland Trail Blazers 46.5 - Under - 44 wins
Oklahoma City Thunder 45.5 - Over - 49 wins
Memphis Grizzlies 43.5 - Over - 50 wins
(tied 8th/9th) Houston Rockets 41.5 - Over - 44 wins
(tied 8th/9th) Minnesota Timberwolves 41.5 - Under - 33 wins
---------------------------
Dallas Mavericks 39.5 - Over - 42 wins
New Orleans Pelicans 36.5 - Under - 32 wins
Denver Nuggets 34.5 - Over - 36 wins
Sacramento Kings 32.5 - Under - 23 wins
Phoenix Suns 26.5 - Over - 28 wins
Los Angeles Lakers 24.5 - Under - 18 wins

East:

Cleveland Cavaliers 56.5 - Under - 54 wins
Boston Celtics 51.5 - Over - 54 wins
Toronto Raptors 49.5 - Over - 52 wins
Detroit Pistons 45.5 - Under- 44 wins
Atlanta Hawks 43.5 - Over - 44 wins
Indiana Pacers 43.5 - Under- 42 wins
Washington Wizards 42.5 - Under - 34 wins
(tied 8th/9th) Charlotte Hornets 39.5 - Over - 46 wins
(tied 8th/9th) Milwaukee Bucks 39.5 - Over - 41 wins
-------------------------
Chicago Bulls 38.5 - Under - 30 wins
New York Knicks 38.5 - Under - 35 wins
Miami Heat 36.5 - Under - 27 wins
Orlando Magic 36.5 - Under- 31 wins
Philadelphia 76ers 27.5 - Under - 18 wins
Brooklyn Nets 20.5 - Over 22 wins

I have you at 1209, with 21 more wins to spread around.

I was hoping no one would do that math.

Guess I am too pessimistic about everyone?

Will edit and correct.

Still waiting on your corrections I believe.

Post #67 » by **HartfordWhalers** » Mon Oct 24, 2016 7:31 pm

People I have predictions from in thesheet:
HW
jayjaysee
dalton749
codydaze
bondom34
MotorKeepsGoing
stitches
Smitty731
Texas Chuck
Trader_Joe
giberish
KqWIN
psman2

Would love to see at least 20 sets so we can make winning it a big thing. =D

Also listed is the original westgate lines, 538's, espn's summer forecast, and ESPN's rpm from Pelton (original and now without Middleton etc):

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sc4XDmxUAQX1M2qPYorI_nItdsgMYs-OnnrwvgIDU0E/edit?usp=sharing

Post #68 » by **bondom34** » Mon Oct 24, 2016 7:47 pm

HartfordWhalers wrote:People I have predictions from in thesheet:
HW
jayjaysee
dalton749
codydaze
bondom34
MotorKeepsGoing
stitches
Smitty731
Texas Chuck
Trader_Joe
giberish
KqWIN
psman2

Would love to see at least 20 sets so we can make winning it a big thing. =D

Also listed is the original westgate lines, 538's, espn's summer forecast, and ESPN's rpm from Pelton (original and now without Middleton etc):

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sc4XDmxUAQX1M2qPYorI_nItdsgMYs-OnnrwvgIDU0E/edit?usp=sharing

Could you adjust mine so its saved?

Bump MKE down to 36, add 1 to Washington, 1 to Miami, 2 to Brooklyn.

Post #69 » by **Texas Chuck** » Mon Oct 24, 2016 7:55 pm

HartfordWhalers wrote:Still waiting on your corrections I believe.

Pretty sure I corrected it. If its not a new post, then I must have edited my original.

Post #70 » by **HartfordWhalers** » Mon Oct 24, 2016 8:03 pm

Texas Chuck wrote:
HartfordWhalers wrote:Still waiting on your corrections I believe.

Pretty sure I corrected it. If its not a new post, then I must have edited my original.

Fixed on my end. I checked only the first 2 at the top, saw no change and thought that was somehow enough to make sure. :oops:

Post #71 » by **HartfordWhalers** » Mon Oct 24, 2016 8:03 pm

bondom34 wrote:
HartfordWhalers wrote:People I have predictions from in thesheet:
HW
jayjaysee
dalton749
codydaze
bondom34
MotorKeepsGoing
stitches
Smitty731
Texas Chuck
Trader_Joe
giberish
KqWIN
psman2

Would love to see at least 20 sets so we can make winning it a big thing. =D

Also listed is the original westgate lines, 538's, espn's summer forecast, and ESPN's rpm from Pelton (original and now without Middleton etc):

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sc4XDmxUAQX1M2qPYorI_nItdsgMYs-OnnrwvgIDU0E/edit?usp=sharing

Could you adjust mine so its saved?

Bump MKE down to 36, add 1 to Washington, 1 to Miami, 2 to Brooklyn.

Done.

KqWIN · Post #72 » by **KqWIN** » Mon Oct 24, 2016 11:20 pm

Maybe irrelevant/late, but I made this a year ago. Win projections based on offensive and defensive rank. Might be a useful guide for those making win predictions.

http://imgur.com/a/q6Mt1

blind prophet · Post #73 » by **blind prophet** » Mon Oct 24, 2016 11:24 pm

blind prophet wrote:Happy to see the West 8-10 so close. Really hard to order those spots if you ask me, and They've got it barely at/above 500 at 41.5.

I still think 40 gets you in though.

Over Picks
Chicago
B̶u̶c̶k̶s̶
Kings? Need to see Collison suspension length first but as negative as I am don't peg any others over really.

Under
Pelicans
Heat
Charlotte

Big Booooo pick

Anyone going under on Philly should have NBA man card revoked.

Considering Middleton

Removing Bucks,

Taking Clippers over.

Post #74 » by **Mr. E** » Tue Oct 25, 2016 1:18 am

Do I have time to submit this tomorrow morning? It's a busy evening here.

Post #75 » by **HartfordWhalers** » Tue Oct 25, 2016 1:23 am

Mr. E wrote:Do I have time to submit this tomorrow morning? It's a busy evening here.

As long as the games haven't tipped. Looking forward to the entry!

NashtyNas · Post #76 » by **NashtyNas** » Tue Oct 25, 2016 7:22 am

Code: Select all

Golden State 62
San Antonio 57
Cleveland 60
LA Clippers 48
Boston 53
Toronto 49
Utah 45
Portland 47
OKC 43
Detroit 45
Atlanta 39
Memphis 43
Indiana 43
Washington 28
Houston 54
Minnesota 42
Charlotte  41
Dallas 31
Milwaukee 47
Chicago 45
NYK 44
Miami 28
Orlando 40
New Orleans 42
Denver 24
Sacramento 35
Philly 21
Phoenix 29
Lakers 26
Brooklyn 19

I think those putting the W's and Cavs at over 65 wins are being a little too naive. Those teams will not try to go for any regular season records this time around. They knew far too well how important every game will be in the Finals - where both teams plan to be.

Also a couple of the wins totals for a few posters are off... I think mine are okay as I verified but please let me know if they need any correction. Good luck to all!

NBAMythbuster · Post #77 » by **NBAMythbuster** » Tue Oct 25, 2016 8:28 am

I'm game.

MVP: Lebron (R.U Kawhi)
DPOY Kawhi (R.U Gobert)

East:
Cavs- 58 wins
Boston- 53 wins
Hawks- 51 wins
Raptors- 49 wins
Pacers 47 wins
Wizards- 44 wins
Magic- 43 wins
Detroit- 42 wins
--------------------
Hornets- 39 wins
Bucks- 33 wins
Bulls- 32 wins
Heat- 30 wins
Nets- 26 wins
Knicks- 25 wins
76ers- 19 wins

West:
GSW- 70 wins
Spurs- 59 wins
LAC- 55 wins
Utah- 51 wins
Houston- 50 wins
Wolves- 46 wins
OKC- 45 wins
Portland- 43 wins
---------------------
Kings- 37 wins
Denver- 35 wins
Memphis- 34 wins
Mavs- 33 wins
Pelicans- 31 wins
Suns- 24 wins
Lakers- 22 wins

OGSactownballer · Post #78 » by **OGSactownballer** » Tue Oct 25, 2016 10:36 am

Don't really care too much about the other teams nor do I agree with most predictions anyway.

Kings- 46-49 and seed 5-8 in the West.

Going bold.

doomsdayshark · Post #79 » by **doomsdayshark** » Tue Oct 25, 2016 11:32 am

Code: Select all

Golden State  68
San Antonio  54
Cleveland  54
LA Clippers  56
Boston  53
Toronto  48
Utah  53
Portland  44
OKC  46
Detroit  47
Atlanta  43
Memphis  42
Indiana  44
Washington  43
Houston  42
Minnesota  41
Charlotte  44
Dallas  38
Milwaukee  32
Chicago  37
NYK  36
Miami  30
Orlando  35
New Orleans  37
Denver  35
Sacramento  34
Philly  22
Phoenix  23
Lakers  26
Brooklyn  23

Post #80 » by **HartfordWhalers** » Tue Oct 25, 2016 11:52 am

NBAMythbuster wrote:I'm game.

MVP: Lebron (R.U Kawhi)
DPOY Kawhi (R.U Gobert)

East:
Cavs- 58 wins
Boston- 53 wins
Hawks- 51 wins
Raptors- 49 wins
Pacers 47 wins
Wizards- 44 wins
Magic- 43 wins
Detroit- 42 wins
--------------------
Hornets- 39 wins
Bucks- 33 wins
Bulls- 32 wins
Heat- 30 wins
Nets- 26 wins
Knicks- 25 wins
76ers- 19 wins

West:
GSW- 70 wins
Spurs- 59 wins
LAC- 55 wins
Utah- 51 wins
Houston- 50 wins
Wolves- 46 wins
OKC- 45 wins
Portland- 43 wins
---------------------
Kings- 37 wins
Denver- 35 wins
Memphis- 34 wins
Mavs- 33 wins
Pelicans- 31 wins
Suns- 24 wins
Lakers- 22 wins

It might be me making a data input eror, but I have you at 1226 and needing 4 more wins.