Boston early offseason in review (HW/bondom34/dbrandon/Slava/165bows)

[Patsfan1081]

Unless you have evidence that Phoenix, Minnesota, etc. would NOT have selected Brown, you have no way of proving Brown was a reach.

And, really, Westbrook was a reach? I think that proves how tenuous this language is. Drafting a 6'4" athletic freak of a PG 5th is a reach?

Agree to disagree.

No, he was a reach because he was projected well after where he was taken. And its irrelevant who would have taken Brown later in the draft, since Boston reached to pick him by taking him at 3, ahead of where he was projected.

Meh, he was a reach according to the opinions of mock drafters.

He only truly was a reach if the actual GM's behind Ainge had Brown rated that much lower. Because you don't possess that knowledge you're basically guessing (which is what mock drafters are doing, in essence).

Reach = drafting a player well before when he otherwise would've been selected

If Brown would've been drafted 4th or 5th... It's really hard to call him a reach @3.

We don't know where he would've been drafted had Ainge not selected him. You can take the guesses of mock drafters as gospel here... But these guys have been quite wrong before.

Yeah, I'm not buying the"reach" in a general sense either. Fox sports and SB nation(I believe, might have been SI)had Brown at three at draft time. A lot of sites had Brown at three from his high school season till 3/4 of the college season. I mean when you say concensous do we mean website mock drafts? Because they seem to shape all of are opinions on where players should be drafted more so than the eye test. Rumor was Philly was looking to trade into the first half of the lottery for Dunn yet they also brought in Brown for a workout. We don't know we're any of the GM's (except for Ainge) had this kid on their board, and it's somewhat hard to say because team workouts and interviews also play a part in their decisions and word is Brown had very good workouts but was all over the place in interviews.

[Patsfan1081]

There were plenty of "experts "that had Brown at three(not to mention 4/5), so it's kind of difficult to buy into him being a reach. Unless you count somone like Bilas as the end all be all off basketball knowledge.

http://thehoopdoctors.com/2009/02/mock-draft/

[SMTBSI]

At this point I don't trust my memory of pre-draft spacetime well enough to have an opinion about whether it's fair to consider Brown a "reach".

But I will make one argument just for the sake of it. And that is that, in different situations, a guy mocked at #8 and taken at #3 can be considered "reached for" to very different degrees.

Let's pretend we can somehow rank prospects on a 1000 point scale. Imagine that this was the pre-draft consensus:

950: Simmons
900: Ingram
- - -
800: Dunn
780: Murray, Hield, Bender
775: Chriss
750: Brown
- - -
<650: everyone else

Versus:

950: Simmons
900: Ingram
- - -
800: Dunn
780: Murray, Hield, Bender
775: Chriss
- - -
650: Brown
<650: everyone else

Both scenarios have Brown firmly at #8, but scenario 2 has the magnitude of the reach as three times that of scenario 1.

[HartfordWhalers]

At this point I don't trust my memory of pre-draft spacetime well enough to have an opinion about whether it's fair to consider Brown a "reach".

But I will make one argument just for the sake of it. And that is that, in different situations, a guy mocked at #8 and taken at #3 can be considered "reached for" to very different degrees.

Let's pretend we can somehow rank prospects on a 1000 point scale. Imagine that this was the pre-draft consensus:

950: Simmons
900: Ingram
- - -
800: Dunn
780: Murray, Hield, Bender
775: Chriss
750: Brown
- - -
<650: everyone else

Versus:

950: Simmons
900: Ingram
- - -
800: Dunn
780: Murray, Hield, Bender
775: Chriss
- - -
650: Brown
<650: everyone else

Both scenarios have Brown firmly at #8, but scenario 2 has the magnitude of the reach as three times that of scenario 1.

Excellent break down and point. And while some of the stats and analytical based rankings had Brown more like 500 (his profile in that regard is really really awful) there also were some scouts had Brown 5th easy, even if not 3rd. So, as I tried to say earlier, Brown is on that line where depending upon what your expert pool is he might have been a reach or not.

But for Brown I will happily step aside of the reach question and just say that I didn't see Brown as a guy that should have gone 3rd or 4th and I'm definitely not alone on that including a number of experts. Whether he can turn his athletic tools into production offensively that is better than his summer league 47.6% TS% (a number bolstered by drawing fouls on guys like Webb that might never make the league) is going to be a big question. I would have gone Murray (or Bender).

[SMTBSI]

But for Brown I will happily step aside of the reach question and just say that I didn't see Brown as a guy that should have gone 3rd or 4th and I'm definitely not alone on that including a number of experts. Whether he can turn his athletic tools into production offensively that is better than his summer league 47.6% TS% (a number bolstered by drawing fouls on guys like Webb that might never make the league) is going to be a big question. I would have gone Murray (or Bender).

For the record, I was less impressed with Brown's summer league than seemingly most C's fans on here. I very much envision him getting no-calls all over the floor on the kinds of moves he was pulling in SL (due both to better defenders and the no-respect-for-rooks factor - I see the combination of those two things hammering him pretty hard at first).

If he does well in the early going, I figure it'll be because he's learning to be an opportunistic pest who slips through the cracks opened by Thomas and Horford (a la how Bradley initially carved out a role), and can then take his time learning to actually assert himself.

[Mystical Apples]

Here's a graph I compiled from 8 different draft models/scouts prior to 2016's draft. Consensus eroded after Simmons and Ingram but there was definitely a 2nd tier ahead of Brown who's ranking varied widely between scouts (6th) and models (28th).

Based upon lack of consensus Brown probably could've been selected in the 6-10 range without being considered a "reach." And ironically, from the scouts-models I used Brown and Zizic were 15 and 16, respectively.

[nowyouknow]

At this point I don't trust my memory of pre-draft spacetime well enough to have an opinion about whether it's fair to consider Brown a "reach".

But I will make one argument just for the sake of it. And that is that, in different situations, a guy mocked at #8 and taken at #3 can be considered "reached for" to very different degrees.

Let's pretend we can somehow rank prospects on a 1000 point scale. Imagine that this was the pre-draft consensus:

950: Simmons
900: Ingram
- - -
800: Dunn
780: Murray, Hield, Bender
775: Chriss
750: Brown
- - -
<650: everyone else

Versus:

950: Simmons
900: Ingram
- - -
800: Dunn
780: Murray, Hield, Bender
775: Chriss
- - -
650: Brown
<650: everyone else

Both scenarios have Brown firmly at #8, but scenario 2 has the magnitude of the reach as three times that of scenario 1.

Excellent break down and point. And while some of the stats and analytical based rankings had Brown more like 500 (his profile in that regard is really really awful) there also were some scouts had Brown 5th easy, even if not 3rd. So, as I tried to say earlier, Brown is on that line where depending upon what your expert pool is he might have been a reach or not.

But for Brown I will happily step aside of the reach question and just say that I didn't see Brown as a guy that should have gone 3rd or 4th and I'm definitely not alone on that including a number of experts. Whether he can turn his athletic tools into production offensively that is better than his summer league 47.6% TS% (a number bolstered by drawing fouls on guys like Webb that might never make the league) is going to be a big question. I would have gone Murray (or Bender).

I respect that take more than hiding behind Brown being a "reach" according to mocks.

Of course, I disagree wholeheartedly. Brown has value first and foremost as a versatile defender where Stevens has already talked about him being able to defend 1 through 4 and 5's when they aren't post oriented.

He also rebounds the ball well and clearly has big time offensive tools.

Murray is a nice looking shooter but is an average athlete. I like Murray, but there is some deal of bust potential based on his lack of size and defensive ability.

Bender looks more like Skita than the Zinger.

I don't think it will take Brown long to dismantle a lot of the negative takes swirling around him. Hard to imagine a better fit for Brown than Brad Stevens' positionless uptempo system.

[HartfordWhalers]

I respect that take more than hiding behind Brown being a "reach" according to mocks..

I've in general ignored your inane comments about mocks not meaning anything and all those experts not knowing anything, and have intentionally not quoted you saying Brown was behind a few guys for #3 less than a month before the draft.

But that comment is absurd and ridiculous even more than your past ones. I dedicated a full paragraph to why I personally thought Brown was a bad pick in my review, and even repeated it again in this thread for those to caught to have seen it Hiding behind Brown being a reach?

Seriously hiding? You can make a full army of straw an comments(it is well in progress), ignore all the cited projections and analysis that did have Brown well below a few other guys (see a pretty picture above), but to come out and then accuse someone else of hiding is the height of a general lack of self awareness and commentary that might better be suited to an entirely different board than this one.

[nowyouknow]

I respect that take more than hiding behind Brown being a "reach" according to mocks..

I've in general ignored your inane comments about mocks not meaning anything and all those experts not knowing anything, and have intentionally not quoted you saying Brown was behind a few guys for #3 less than a month before the draft.

But that comment is absurd and ridiculous even more than your past ones. I dedicated a full paragraph to why I personally thought Brown was a bad pick in my review, and even repeated it again in this thread for those to caught to have seen it Hiding behind Brown being a reach?

Seriously hiding? You can make a full army of straw an comments, ignore all the cited projections and analysis that did have Brown well below a few other guys, but to come out and then accuse someone else of hiding is the height of a general lack of self awareness and commentary that might better be suited to an entirely different board than this one.

I wasnt actually referring to you specifically.

Just a general statement on talking about Brown as a reach based on mocks.

The games are coming soon and people who are actually willing to critique Brown the player have my respect. When Brown shows why he was picked third you will be held to account for your erroneous view.

[bwgood77]

I respect that take more than hiding behind Brown being a "reach" according to mocks.

Of course, I disagree wholeheartedly. Brown has value first and foremost as a versatile defender where Stevens has already talked about him being able to defend 1 through 4 and 5's when they aren't post oriented.

He also rebounds the ball well and clearly has big time offensive tools.

Murray is a nice looking shooter but is an average athlete. I like Murray, but there is some deal of bust potential based on his lack of size and defensive ability.

Bender looks more like Skita than the Zinger.

I don't think it will take Brown long to dismantle a lot of the negative takes swirling around him. Hard to imagine a better fit for Brown than Brad Stevens' positionless uptempo system.

Celtics fan I take it?

[nowyouknow]

I respect that take more than hiding behind Brown being a "reach" according to mocks.

Of course, I disagree wholeheartedly. Brown has value first and foremost as a versatile defender where Stevens has already talked about him being able to defend 1 through 4 and 5's when they aren't post oriented.

He also rebounds the ball well and clearly has big time offensive tools.

Murray is a nice looking shooter but is an average athlete. I like Murray, but there is some deal of bust potential based on his lack of size and defensive ability.

Bender looks more like Skita than the Zinger.

I don't think it will take Brown long to dismantle a lot of the negative takes swirling around him. Hard to imagine a better fit for Brown than Brad Stevens' positionless uptempo system.

Celtics fan I take it?

I watch a ton of basketball.

But yes, I am a fan of the best franchise in the NBA.

I am actually a huge fan of Jamal Murray and he was my pick for much of the college season. But when you are drafting that high in the draft you have to look at upside. Brown's upside is that of a player who can defend 4 positions. He also has dominant transition/slashing potential.

He is going to play the 3/4 for Boston and give teams headaches off the bounce.

Bender is 2-4 years away from being relevant. For all the hype I don't think he can rebound/defend a single NBA position right now.

[bwgood77]

I respect that take more than hiding behind Brown being a "reach" according to mocks.

Of course, I disagree wholeheartedly. Brown has value first and foremost as a versatile defender where Stevens has already talked about him being able to defend 1 through 4 and 5's when they aren't post oriented.

He also rebounds the ball well and clearly has big time offensive tools.

Murray is a nice looking shooter but is an average athlete. I like Murray, but there is some deal of bust potential based on his lack of size and defensive ability.

Bender looks more like Skita than the Zinger.

I don't think it will take Brown long to dismantle a lot of the negative takes swirling around him. Hard to imagine a better fit for Brown than Brad Stevens' positionless uptempo system.

Celtics fan I take it?

I watch a ton of basketball.

But yes, I am a fan of the best franchise in the NBA.

I am actually a huge fan of Jamal Murray and he was my pick for much of the college season. But when you are drafting that high in the draft you have to look at upside. Brown's upside is that of a player who can defend 4 positions. He also has dominant transition/slashing potential.

He is going to play the 3/4 for Boston and give teams headaches off the bounce.

Bender is 2-4 years away from being relevant. For all the hype I don't think he can rebound/defend a single NBA position right now.

Brown has loads of potential but didn't show much when things matter in the tourney when 4 seed Cal played the almighty Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 1-6, 4 pts, 2 rebounds, 0 assists, 0 rebounds, 0 steals, 7 turnovers, and 5 fouls https://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/boxscore?gameId=400871271

Bender is more raw, but he has already shown ball handling, passing, and good perimeter defense in summer league. Summer league isn't the greatest test for future ability but he is one of the youngest guys in the league. Yes, he is at least a couple years away and may be a bust, but Brown is far from a sure thing as well. He can't shoot, and all he did in college was slash and do layups. That's nice, but in today's nba, if you can't shoot, particularly if you are a wing, that's not a good thing.

[nowyouknow]

Celtics fan I take it?

I watch a ton of basketball.

But yes, I am a fan of the best franchise in the NBA.

I am actually a huge fan of Jamal Murray and he was my pick for much of the college season. But when you are drafting that high in the draft you have to look at upside. Brown's upside is that of a player who can defend 4 positions. He also has dominant transition/slashing potential.

He is going to play the 3/4 for Boston and give teams headaches off the bounce.

Bender is 2-4 years away from being relevant. For all the hype I don't think he can rebound/defend a single NBA position right now.

Brown has loads of potential but didn't show much when things matter in the tourney when 4 seed Cal played the almighty Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 1-6, 4 pts, 2 rebounds, 0 assists, 0 rebounds, 0 steals, 7 turnovers, and 5 fouls https://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/boxscore?gameId=400871271

Bender is more raw, but he has already shown ball handling, passing, and good perimeter defense in summer league. Summer league isn't the greatest test for future ability but he is one of the youngest guys in the league. Yes, he is at least a couple years away and may be a bust, but Brown is far from a sure thing as well.

One game sample though?

I just look at skill sets and Bender looks like a role player through and through. His defense got a lot of hype but he is essentially a poor rebounder who will struggle to defend bigs inside and isn't quick enough to defend perimeter players.

Brown on the other hand is quick enough to defend guards and big and strong enough to defend forwards.

Brown is an excellent ball handler in the open court and relentlessly attacks the basket with excellent footwork. His bugaboo is decision making as a primary ball handler/scorer.

That won't be his role early in Boston.

[bwgood77]

One game sample though?

I just look at skill sets and Bender looks like a role player through and through. His defense got a lot of hype but he is essentially a poor rebounder who will struggle to defend bigs inside and isn't quick enough to defend perimeter players.

Brown on the other hand is quick enough to defend guards and big and strong enough to defend forwards.

Brown is an excellent ball handler in the open court and relentlessly attacks the basket with excellent footwork. His bugaboo is decision making as a primary ball handler/scorer.

That won't be his role early in Boston.

No, I studied him well and also watched him being an AZ fan. I was praying the Suns didn't draft him because he was on some draft boards for them and that somehow Bender would drop. He pretty much was terrible like the last six games, but I'm not going to post all the box scores and give you the #s because you've obviously made up your mind. Good luck to the Celtics. Hope he pans out for you . Very glad he's not in Phx.

[Mystical Apples]

I watch a ton of basketball.

But yes, I am a fan of the best franchise in the NBA.

I am actually a huge fan of Jamal Murray and he was my pick for much of the college season. But when you are drafting that high in the draft you have to look at upside. Brown's upside is that of a player who can defend 4 positions. He also has dominant transition/slashing potential.

He is going to play the 3/4 for Boston and give teams headaches off the bounce.

Bender is 2-4 years away from being relevant. For all the hype I don't think he can rebound/defend a single NBA position right now.

Brown has loads of potential but didn't show much when things matter in the tourney when 4 seed Cal played the almighty Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 1-6, 4 pts, 2 rebounds, 0 assists, 0 rebounds, 0 steals, 7 turnovers, and 5 fouls https://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/boxscore?gameId=400871271

Bender is more raw, but he has already shown ball handling, passing, and good perimeter defense in summer league. Summer league isn't the greatest test for future ability but he is one of the youngest guys in the league. Yes, he is at least a couple years away and may be a bust, but Brown is far from a sure thing as well.

One game sample though?

Since you asked.

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/california/2016.html

[nowyouknow]

One game sample though?

I just look at skill sets and Bender looks like a role player through and through. His defense got a lot of hype but he is essentially a poor rebounder who will struggle to defend bigs inside and isn't quick enough to defend perimeter players.

Brown on the other hand is quick enough to defend guards and big and strong enough to defend forwards.

Brown is an excellent ball handler in the open court and relentlessly attacks the basket with excellent footwork. His bugaboo is decision making as a primary ball handler/scorer.

That won't be his role early in Boston.

No, I studied him well and also watched him being an AZ fan. I was praying the Suns didn't draft him because he was on some draft boards for them and that somehow Bender would drop. He pretty much was terrible like the last six games, but I'm not going to post all the box scores and give you the #s because you've obviously made up your mind. Good luck to the Celtics. Hope he pans out for you . Very glad he's not in Phx.

Ive reviewed all of Jaylen's stats and he was actually really solid overall in his 18 conference games.

More importantly, Ive watched a lot of game film on him and its pretty apparent that he has the physical tools to be a dominant two way player.

19 year old kids with 30 usage rates are generally going to struggle with efficiency, especially when they aren't pure shooters.

I wish Phoenix the best but I think Chriss looks like the best PF prospect they drafted. Bender has a long ways to go. But then again Phoenix has more time to wait on that development.

I don't think its an accident that Ainge drafted Zizic after having scouting Croatian bigs. I don't think Bender impressed in workouts (and his game tape in Israel was very underwhelming). I didn't see much from Bender in SL either. He is going to have difficulty with NBA athletes.

[bwgood77]

One game sample though?

I just look at skill sets and Bender looks like a role player through and through. His defense got a lot of hype but he is essentially a poor rebounder who will struggle to defend bigs inside and isn't quick enough to defend perimeter players.

Brown on the other hand is quick enough to defend guards and big and strong enough to defend forwards.

Brown is an excellent ball handler in the open court and relentlessly attacks the basket with excellent footwork. His bugaboo is decision making as a primary ball handler/scorer.

That won't be his role early in Boston.

No, I studied him well and also watched him being an AZ fan. I was praying the Suns didn't draft him because he was on some draft boards for them and that somehow Bender would drop. He pretty much was terrible like the last six games, but I'm not going to post all the box scores and give you the #s because you've obviously made up your mind. Good luck to the Celtics. Hope he pans out for you . Very glad he's not in Phx.

Ive reviewed all of Jaylen's stats and he was actually really solid overall in his 18 conference games.

More importantly, Ive watched a lot of game film on him and its pretty apparent that he has the physical tools to be a dominant two way player.

19 year old kids with 30 usage rates are generally going to struggle with efficiency, especially when they aren't pure shooters.

I wish Phoenix the best but I think Chriss looks like the best PF prospect they drafted. Bender has a long ways to go. But then again Phoenix has more time to wait on that development.

I don't think its an accident that Ainge drafted Zizic after having scouting Croatian bigs. I don't think Bender impressed in workouts (and his game tape in Israel was very underwhelming). I didn't see much from Bender in SL either. He is going to have difficulty with NBA athletes.

No offense, but I'll take your scouting with a grain of salt. Bender is certainly going to struggle with adapting to the nba playing against top tier competition to start. Chriss probably moreso. Each can do some unique things, but not enough to get into the lineup and seriously contribute to a good game of nba basketball.

Same with Jaylen. Overall Jaylen played well in the PAC 12, but it was almost all based on pure power and driving. He fouls out, drives without a good handle and turns it over more than he assists (like 1.5 to 1) and shoots sub 30% from 3. He is a super athlete and can make layups and dunk, so those are pluses. Hopefully for your sake he can develop some more skills that help teams in the NBA.

[Kolkmania]

I watch a ton of basketball.

But yes, I am a fan of the best franchise in the NBA.

I am actually a huge fan of Jamal Murray and he was my pick for much of the college season. But when you are drafting that high in the draft you have to look at upside. Brown's upside is that of a player who can defend 4 positions. He also has dominant transition/slashing potential.

He is going to play the 3/4 for Boston and give teams headaches off the bounce.

Bender is 2-4 years away from being relevant. For all the hype I don't think he can rebound/defend a single NBA position right now.

Brown has loads of potential but didn't show much when things matter in the tourney when 4 seed Cal played the almighty Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 1-6, 4 pts, 2 rebounds, 0 assists, 0 rebounds, 0 steals, 7 turnovers, and 5 fouls https://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/boxscore?gameId=400871271

Bender is more raw, but he has already shown ball handling, passing, and good perimeter defense in summer league. Summer league isn't the greatest test for future ability but he is one of the youngest guys in the league. Yes, he is at least a couple years away and may be a bust, but Brown is far from a sure thing as well.

One game sample though?

I just look at skill sets and Bender looks like a role player through and through. His defense got a lot of hype but he is essentially a poor rebounder who will struggle to defend bigs inside and isn't quick enough to defend perimeter players.


Brown on the other hand is quick enough to defend guards and big and strong enough to defend forwards.

Brown is an excellent ball handler in the open court and relentlessly attacks the basket with excellent footwork. His bugaboo is decision making as a primary ball handler/scorer.

That won't be his role early in Boston.

I think the truth is somewhere in between, perhaps Brown is stronger at this moment and thus a better defender right now (form physical standpoint). But in my opinion that's due to a different approach in development between the US and Europe. If Bender is able to add some muscle to his body, he's capable to defend stretch bigs and 4's, plus the ability to switch on P&R's. That's very valuable.

You're mentioning that Brown has the offensive tools, but personally I had a hard time seeing those in Cali. However, he is a great athlete, perhaps the tools will develop in the next year. That will make him a high potential two way player, where Bender has the potential to be the ultimate team player. Switching on defense, space the floor and make the right decision with the ball (maybe even some playmaking).

Back to topic. I think everybody is underestimating the value of Sullinger's rebounding and Turner's presence with the bench unit. Horford is a great addition and gives them an extra option on the offensive end, but he's steadily declining with his rebounding. Also curious who will replace Turner as the playmaker of the second unit. Will Rozier get the keys? That's a huge responsibility for an inexperienced player. Might work for the Celtics in the long term, but it will probably hurt short term. I'll expect them to finish around a similar win total as last year.

[Drax]

Since this thread has evolved into a Jaylen Brown discussion, i wanna ask one thing.

What is more valuable on the open market right now in the NBA and to clarify i'm not talking starplayer. A roleplaying wing or a roleplaying guard? If you had to choose between two players both six years (25years old) in the NBA, earn $11 million a year and average 25 minutes a game, what do you pick wing or guard?

To me this is a potentially huge factor when you evaluate Brown, he plays a position that is much harder to fill with the potential to be really good. Maybe Dunn, Murray or Hield will be better, but what if all four players top out as roleplayers who do you choose? Good wings are hard to find and if you can trade them usually they have pretty good trade value.

[SMTBSI]

Since this thread has evolved into a Jaylen Brown discussion, i wanna ask one thing.

What is more valuable on the open market right now in the NBA and to clarify i'm not talking starplayer. A roleplaying wing or a roleplaying guard? If you had to choose between two players both six years (25years old) in the NBA, earn $11 million a year and average 25 minutes a game, what do you pick wing or guard?

To me this is a potentially huge factor when you evaluate Brown, he plays a position that is much harder to fill with the potential to be really good. Maybe Dunn, Murray or Hield will be better, but what if all four players top out as roleplayers who do you choose? Good wings are hard to find and if you can trade them usually they have pretty good trade value.

That's an interesting argument. Given equivalently talented and compensated players at each position, conventional wisdom seems to be to upsize.

But I'm not sure how you'd measure how important of a factor that should be - just how much of a disparity in talent/potential it could offset. My intuition would be not really that much. Like, blind to team needs, the principle could function as a tie-breaker, but not much more.