DetroitSho wrote:Scoot McGroot wrote:DetroitSho wrote:Because you're ignoring context and you're answering your own question but somehow ignoring the answer you're providing. You're right, if Duncan Robinson is guaranteed $20 million in any given season, it makes no sense for him to opt out of it. You, I, and everyone agree to that.
What you keep glossing over is why would he opt out of $20 million. At this point, you would have to use logic based off years of being a basketball fan and make the educated assumption that Miami was going to waive him, which is backed up by Miami fans' accounts. So, $20 million for one year of basketball doesn't exist for him under his Miami contract.
If Miami comes to him and tells him we are going to waive you but there's a way to still (VERY LIKELY) get your $20 million for one year of basketball (and a rotation spot with alot of shots you wouldn't get here), exactly what money is he giving back?
The mistake you're making is you're assigning him value in the open market that he doesn't have. You think he could've just went and gotten $15 million next year to add to his $10 million in dead money, and that's not true. Hell, if it wasn't for the "creative financing" Miami and Detroit worked out, Detroit themselves wouldn't have given Duncan $15 million on the open market. Being able to dump an $8 million contract in the process makes paying him $15 million way more palatable. The difference between those numbers, $7 million, is probably more in line of what he may have gotten out there in the open market.
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If Miami had waived him, he was to be paid $10m to walk away from Miami. And then he could’ve signed a new contract elsewhere immediately. What are we disregarding he would’ve had a chance for both? He clearly had value int his market. He signed for $15m. He could have had $10m from Miami, too, in theory.
You first argued him opting out from $20 million meant he walked away from money, when that $20 million option wasn't even going to be an option (no pun intended) for him, by accounts.
I believe I covered multiple bases, including that he could have been waived, but still gotten his $10m payout, and also then a new contract, which when combined, likely could have been more than just the $15m payout he’s getting instead by opting out?
Now you're trying to argue that he walked away from money because his cumulative earnings between his $10 million buyout and what he would've gotten on the open market for salary this year could've been in the $25 million range. That's beyond absurd.
Yeah, I think you completely misunderstood. Which is understandable, because I sometimes ramble when I type. Because I think it’s understandable that if he had been waived by Miami, he would’ve gotten his $10m payout AND THEN also gotten to sign a new deal to play elsewhere this season. He got nearly $15m from Detroit for this year. I would assume a similar offer, or at least $10m would have been attainable if he was waived closer to his July 7 guarantee date?
It's all speculation but the general leap in logic is that between his guaranteed salary this upcoming season with the Pistons plus his buyout for the following season AT LEAST totals the $20 million he had remaining on the Miami contract and likely even exceeds it, even if by just 1 million.
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Miami buyout path:
$10m + new contract for 2025/26 and then 2026/27 years
This path could have allowed for a similar contract among from Detroit that he got anyway.
Miami keeping plan:
Rather than commit $10m in dead money to their books, Miami may have kept him at $20m
Current path opting out of Miami:
$15m from Detroit for 25/26
Some partial guarantee amount from Detroit plus new contract signed elsewhere for 26/27 and going forward
The opting out plan requires 2 years to make as much money as he would’ve made in one year in getting waived by Miami. And we have to see what his 26/27 partial guarantee is before we can determine if opting out made him as much money as opting into Miami and hoping to have been kept.
I apologize for any feeling of frustration toward me, but I’m truly not trying to pick a fight. I just see the opt out and signing in Detroit as fiscally the option that may have made him the least money. And that’s ok. No harm to Detroit (they get their guy!). And no harm to Miami (they save their money!). And no harm to Robinson (he got to where he apparently wants to be!).