[Woj] TJ Warren Contract Extension

[DirtyDez]

12m a year, age 24-28. Let's not overthink this.

[Texas Chuck]

12m a year, age 24-28. Let's not overthink this.

this feels like badly underthinking it.

Right now he's a middling efficiency bench scorer. I get Suns' fans attachment tho I really do. He's got that old 1980's SF kind of game. Doesn't shoot 3's, not interested in guarding anyone, but is really crafty and is super smooth getting buckets.

I love watching him play. But a guy like that can't start on a good team because his scoring isn't good enough to draw doubles and have gravity that creates open shots for teammates, he's not a playmaker, he doesn't do much to help spacing for other players and he's a negative on defense.

So with no growth his current contract is an overpay. Lou Williams costs roughly half as much and is more effective. SuperCoolBeas costs $10M less and is just as effective. Now I get goodwill, and him being a good guy and all that. And I'm okay with the Suns paying something for it. But it doesn't make this deal good today.

[Mystical Apples]

12m a year, age 24-28. Let's not overthink this.

Which is how you get to $50M for TJ Warren.

As an aside the arc of this thread is something.

[DirtyDez]

12m a year, age 24-28. Let's not overthink this.

this feels like badly underthinking it.

Right now he's a middling efficiency bench scorer. I get Suns' fans attachment tho I really do. He's got that old 1980's SF kind of game. Doesn't shoot 3's, not interested in guarding anyone, but is really crafty and is super smooth getting buckets.

I love watching him play. But a guy like that can't start on a good team because his scoring isn't good enough to draw doubles and have gravity that creates open shots for teammates, he's not a playmaker, he doesn't do much to help spacing for other players and he's a negative on defense.

So with no growth his current contract is an overpay. Lou Williams costs roughly half as much and is more effective. SuperCoolBeas costs $10M less and is just as effective. Now I get goodwill, and him being a good guy and all that. And I'm okay with the Suns paying something for it. But it doesn't make this deal good today.

Not arguing his shortcomings on the court. I think the Suns are banking on what they saw post-Tucker trade where he was getting wherever he wanted inside the arc. I just don't think the contract numbers are that significant. If ppl think he's overpaid by a "few mil" that's fair.

[lilfishi22]

12m a year, age 24-28. Let's not overthink this.

this feels like badly underthinking it.

Right now he's a middling efficiency bench scorer. I get Suns' fans attachment tho I really do. He's got that old 1980's SF kind of game. Doesn't shoot 3's, not interested in guarding anyone, but is really crafty and is super smooth getting buckets.

I love watching him play. But a guy like that can't start on a good team because his scoring isn't good enough to draw doubles and have gravity that creates open shots for teammates, he's not a playmaker, he doesn't do much to help spacing for other players and he's a negative on defense.

So with no growth his current contract is an overpay. Lou Williams costs roughly half as much and is more effective. SuperCoolBeas costs $10M less and is just as effective. Now I get goodwill, and him being a good guy and all that. And I'm okay with the Suns paying something for it. But it doesn't make this deal good today.

It's underthinking if we assume zero further development in his game. If we're talking about a 28-29 year old, then it's totally fair to compare him to other scoring options like Beasley(28) or Williams(30) and sure, then it's an overpay. Make no mistake, I fully recognise TJ's weaknesses on the court. But comparing him to players who are past their development prime is disingenuous. But TJ only just turned 24. There's plenty of room to grow.

From a salary standpoint, TJ would be the 19th highest paid SF in the league. The only players close to his age who I would consider to be at a smiliar level if not better than TJ is Giannis (22yo, $22m), Barnes (25yo, $23m), Porter (24yo, $25m), MKG (24yo, $13m), Crabbe (25yo, $19m), Wiggins (22yo, $30m?) and Aaron Gordon (22yo, no extension as yet). Other players who are of a similar age, are still on their rookie deal. $12.5m just isn't a huge leap for player with potential who just turned 24 and has shown he belongs on the court.

[collidingNeurons]

I find it slightly amusing that some people that criticize him also had him in trade proposals and wish lists going to their favorite teams... "yes but not at this price" Suns fans are okay with the deal ,if you are a fan of another team and aren't that's okay with us, we aren't advocating trading him. if he becomes a bad contract or not time will tell, but it's not like there' aren't far worse contracts in the league and most teams have at least one that their fans don't like.

[Mystical Apples]

Yeah this arc is amazing. Because in the end, there's no arguing with not the worst and just watch eye test.

[bondom34]

Career numbers:

11/4/1 on .544 TS

Or

10/3/1 on .553 TS

Both poor defenders. Both lower than 48 in RPM among SFs.

The first got 12 mil a year, the second is Shabazz Mohammed.

[Slava]

Negative defenders who cannot shoot the 3 can't be making that much. Its okay to fall in love with your prospects but an entirely different thing to pay them before the market sets their rate.

This will be a Jordan Clarkson deal, which isn't necessarily bad for Phoenix because they don't have any clunker deals or a near term need for immediate cap space in free agency.

[Saberestar]

I love watching him play.

This...this is the most important thing IMO.

I prefer to watch 1000 times more a player as Warren rather than the typical 3&D guy who is like a robot waiting in the corner.

So I am really pleased with his contract extension, because my team is better and more fun to watch with him on the roster. Plain and simple.

[Qwigglez]

Check out this article on TJ's Mid-Range game.
https://www.brightsideofthesun.com/2017/10/5/16429216/tj-warren-mid-range-game

[HartfordWhalers]

Check out this article on TJ's Mid-Range game.
https://www.brightsideofthesun.com/2017/10/5/16429216/tj-warren-mid-range-game

I'm not really a believer that every fan post is an article.

That fan post is basically all about this chart:



We have three obvious zones:
3 point -- well below average.
Mid range - At (or somewhat above) average)
At the rim -- above league average

Which isn't much of a basis for analysis, but imo the poster still does a pretty solid job mucking it up badly.

3 point is ignored entirely, but that has been discussed elsewhere.

The crux of the fan post is that this mid range is good because it is somewhat above league average. But being somewhat above league average on a skill is different from that skill being good; at the extreme you don;t want someone taking full court shots just because they are above average from there.

The utterly simplistic 45.6% is higher than 41.8% fails to note that shooting a mid range jumper and hitting 45% of the time is a highly inefficient offensive possession, and a clear net negative for the team. The article manages to take possessions where Warren hurts the Phoenix offense and view them as a positive.

And he is taking them a lot, over 55% of his shots:



As for the at the rim stats, the fan poster takes the high percentage and reaches conclusions such as:

Now, let’s look at Tyson Chandler’s shot chart. Chandler is the Phoenix Suns’ center. Chandler and Warren shoot just about the same percentage around the rim, despite Warren being 6’8″ and Chandler being a 7-footer.

But wait! Look at LA Clipper’s center DeAndre Jordan’s shot chart. Jordan, perhaps the most athletic big man in the game, made 74.3% of his shots around the rim – just 4.4% more than Warren!

Which again would benefit from context. In contrast to the mid range shooting, these are clearly all possessions that are more efficient than the average offensive possession.

So, the obvious questions to ask are: How many do the players get, how do the players get them and can they get more?

Per 36 Restricted area shots:
Warren: 4.0
Chandler: 5.7
Jordan: 6.7

So, Warren is coming up with considerably less of these highly efficient shots than the two guys he is being compared to. And they aren't taking the inefficient shots Warren is taking.

As to how Warren is getting these in the restricted area shots, it is also entirely different than the two centers. Warren had a full 27.5% of his made field goals in transition. Warren is clearly a talented player in the open court in a way very different than Chandler (10 transition field goal made on the season), that the comparison just based off where the shot ends up being taken from seems a bad comparison. Which circles back to the third question, how scalable is this offense? Unlike something like isolation plays (where Warren's stats are awful -- 20 field goal made on the season shooting at a 35% clip), it is not reasonable to expect Phoenix could considerably increase Warren's transition offense further, although if anyone wants to make the case they by all means should.


The overall chart shows Warren very good at something that doesn't look scalable and taking a ton of shots he shouldn't -- but the extent to which he shouldn't is less than it might be for some other players.

[Mykhyn]

I dont mind this at all. Locking up a decent wing through his prime costs this much now a days. Much rather have Warren at this than Turner, Crabbe, Gallinari,Parsons, Hardaway, James Johnson, Solomon Hill, etc