Thoughts in General, Random Rumors and Musings, Blah Blah 14.0 Eddie Najera Edicion

[giberish]

Using Beal's recent value as a base...

Bulls get:
Right to Swap 2027 1sts with Detroit (Top 9 Protected)
Right to Swap 2028 1sts with Detroit
2024 Knicks 2nd
2028 Knicks 2nd
2029 Bucks 2nd
2030 Timberwolves 2nd

Pistons get:
Zach LaVine

Is expirings vs. being absorbed into cap space worth a 2nd and 2 swaps? The Wizards got expirings, 5 2nds and 4 swaps for Beal, but the Bulls would be dumping the salary outright here.

Good god. Detroit giving up control of their picks (and a crap-ton of immediate salary relief - not even junk EC's going back) for LaVine?

There should be a forced sale and complete FO cleaning if such a deal is even discussed.

In addition to the horrible direction, I'd say Beal had more value than LaVine and that immediate salary relief is worth the pick swaps from a good team (something Detroit can't offer).

At most, salary relief, perhaps a prospect Detroit has somewhat given up on, and the usual bunch of 2nds that seem to be in every Detroit trade recently.

[NYG]

Using Beal's recent value as a base...

Bulls get:
Right to Swap 2027 1sts with Detroit (Top 9 Protected)
Right to Swap 2028 1sts with Detroit
2024 Knicks 2nd
2028 Knicks 2nd
2029 Bucks 2nd
2030 Timberwolves 2nd

Pistons get:
Zach LaVine

Is expirings vs. being absorbed into cap space worth a 2nd and 2 swaps? The Wizards got expirings, 5 2nds and 4 swaps for Beal, but the Bulls would be dumping the salary outright here.

Good god. Detroit giving up control of their picks (and a crap-ton of immediate salary relief - not even junk EC's going back) for LaVine?

There should be a forced sale and complete FO cleaning if such a deal is even discussed.

In addition to the horrible direction, I'd say Beal had more value than LaVine and that immediate salary relief is worth the pick swaps from a good team (something Detroit can't offer).

At most, salary relief, perhaps a prospect Detroit has somewhat given up on, and the usual bunch of 2nds that seem to be in every Detroit trade recently.

Stewart, Grimes and 2nds?

[chrbal]

I hope to god that we don’t trade forZach

[NYG]

I hope to god that we don’t trade forZach

But in real life, do you think it would/could happen?

[chrbal]

I hope to god that we don’t trade forZach

But in real life, do you think it would/could happen?

I think the window got mostly closed. I feel like Detroit was close to trading for him and then he suddenly elected for surgery. I’m not sure he does that if they are trying to trade him to a better team around the deadline.

I’m not saying it’s impossible, but I don’t think he wants to go to Detroit.

[jayjaysee]

For fun.

Atlanta should embrace the tank and get to 7th, right? Crawling to the play-in vs a 32% chance of a top 4 pick.. or even if you don’t move up, you have the centerpiece for a Lauri or Bridges or whatever star trade.. Becomes more possible to keep Jalen and Murray out of it.

Or you keep the pick and are one prospect closer to retooling without your firsts if Trae does demand out..

[NYG]

I see this draft being similar to 2020...

https://www.nba.com/news/2020-nba-draft-results-picks-1-60

I usually put together a consensus of rankings from ESPN, NBADraft.net, The Ringer, Bleacher Report, and CBS (I find these sites to be most in line with what NBA teams think versus sites that do their rankings based on their scouting) then average them out. The weird thing is... usually, there's a range where different guys are, but literally from 1st on down this year, everyone has pretty different ranges for each prospect.

This is the top 30 from the above-mentioned averaged-out list as of now btw...

1 Alex Sarr
2 Zaccharie Risacher
3 Ja'Kobe Walter
4 Cody Williams
5 Matas Buzelis
6 Nikola Topic
7 Kyle Filipowski
8 Ron Holland
9 Isaiah Collier
10 Robert Dillingham
11 Stephon Castle
12 Reed Sheppard
13 Donovan Clingan
14 Kevin McCullar
15 Bobi Klintman
16 Tidjane Salaun
17 Dalton Knecht
18 Tyler Smith
19 Ryan Dunn
20 Yves Missi
21 Tyrese Proctor
22 Justin Edwards
23 Kel'el Ware
24 Izan Almansa
25 Trevon Brazile
26 D.J. Wagner
27 Zach Edey
28 Jared McCain
29 Kanaan Carlyle
30 Trey Alexander

[SkyHook]

For fun.

Atlanta should embrace the tank and get to 7th, right? Crawling to the play-in vs a 32% chance of a top 4 pick.. or even if you don’t move up, you have the centerpiece for a Lauri or Bridges or whatever star trade.. Becomes more possible to keep Jalen and Murray out of it.

Or you keep the pick and are one prospect closer to retooling without your firsts if Trae does demand out..

I don’t see the potential for a Hawks acquisition of Lauri, but certainly not without Jalen. I’d be interested to see what you have in mind though.

[MoneyTalks41890]

For fun.

Atlanta should embrace the tank and get to 7th, right? Crawling to the play-in vs a 32% chance of a top 4 pick.. or even if you don’t move up, you have the centerpiece for a Lauri or Bridges or whatever star trade.. Becomes more possible to keep Jalen and Murray out of it.

Or you keep the pick and are one prospect closer to retooling without your firsts if Trae does demand out..

I don’t see the potential for a Hawks acquisition of Lauri, but certainly not without Jalen. I’d be interested to see what you have in mind though.

Lauri is a true expiring now, a top 7 pick and Jalen feels too steep.

[jayjaysee]

For fun.

Atlanta should embrace the tank and get to 7th, right? Crawling to the play-in vs a 32% chance of a top 4 pick.. or even if you don’t move up, you have the centerpiece for a Lauri or Bridges or whatever star trade.. Becomes more possible to keep Jalen and Murray out of it.

Or you keep the pick and are one prospect closer to retooling without your firsts if Trae does demand out..

I don’t see the potential for a Hawks acquisition of Lauri, but certainly not without Jalen. I’d be interested to see what you have in mind though.

If Atlanta gets pick 7? They have a later 2024 first and their own 29/31 firsts, as well as their swaps in 2028/2030. Four firsts and 2 swaps is plenty for an expiring star.

While Atlanta has a TPE (thanks to Utah) that they could do Griffin/Bufkin+4 firsts, they might want to trim some salary by using Capela, Bogdan, or maybe even OO who all have some value to some third team.. I don’t think Lauri is actually worth that offer given his contract status, just my opinion that Atlanta has the ability to overpay for Lauri still.

I don’t understand why Lauri is considered so much more valuable than Pascal was 8 months ago. I feel like I’ve watched both plenty. Lauri’s cheap contract adds some value, but the team receiving him likely can’t even do the renegotiate and extend as they’d have to sit on cap space for 6 months. So the biggest factor of his contract is really only a bonus to Utah since they didn’t trade him before the deadline.

TLDR;
I don’t think 7th and 3 other firsts would be on the table, but do think it’s plenty of value for an expiring star. I do think the offer would be - Griffin/Bufkin, 7th, 22nd, 2027 first. And unless a top tanking team (Detroit) gets desperate - that’s the best offer.

But for Atlanta.. I’d rather trade for Grant and Thybulle. Feels like that duo is what the team could really use and they can keep the lottery pick out of it.

[SkyHook]

I don’t see the potential for a Hawks acquisition of Lauri, but certainly not without Jalen. I’d be interested to see what you have in mind though.

Lauri is a true expiring now, a top 7 pick and Jalen feels too steep.

If that’s too steep, then best to call it an impasse and move on.

[SkyHook]

I don’t see the potential for a Hawks acquisition of Lauri, but certainly not without Jalen. I’d be interested to see what you have in mind though.

If Atlanta gets pick 7? They have a later 2024 first and their own 29/31 firsts, as well as their swaps in 2028/2030. Four firsts and 2 swaps is plenty for an expiring star.

While Atlanta has a TPE (thanks to Utah) that they could do Griffin/Bufkin+4 firsts, they might want to trim some salary by using Capela, Bogdan, or maybe even OO who all have some value to some third team.. I don’t think Lauri is actually worth that offer given his contract status, just my opinion that Atlanta has the ability to overpay for Lauri still.

I don’t understand why Lauri is considered so much more valuable than Pascal was 8 months ago. I feel like I’ve watched both plenty. Lauri’s cheap contract adds some value, but the team receiving him likely can’t even do the renegotiate and extend as they’d have to sit on cap space for 6 months. So the biggest factor of his contract is really only a bonus to Utah since they didn’t trade him before the deadline.

TLDR;
I don’t think 7th and 3 other firsts would be on the table, but do think it’s plenty of value for an expiring star. I do think the offer would be - Griffin/Bufkin, 7th, 22nd, 2027 first. And unless a top tanking team (Detroit) gets desperate - that’s the best offer.

But for Atlanta.. I’d rather trade for Grant and Thybulle. Feels like that duo is what the team could really use and they can keep the lottery pick out of it.

You’re right… they have a deeper war chest than I originally saw. I had it in my head that they could only trade one of the 24 picks, but post-draft they can move both. And I consider swaps only marginal so I typically don’t even think about them.

Other teams may choose to limit their offering for reasons you suggest and that thinking is definitely valid when dealing with a motivated seller; nothing wrong with that. I just don’t think that the Jazz are motivated to move Lauri. I wouldn’t wager that Ainge moves off of the godfather offer requirement. I don’t believe that given their current stock of draft picks that he would be interested in a deal where more of those would be the primary value. I think he would target a young stud like Jalen instead. But who knows at this point.

I have Lauri as a tier or two higher than Siakam. More efficient, better shooter and rebounder throughout their careers, plus he’s three years younger. I thought that Pascal had started to decline earlier this season and that might account for some diminished value, but he’s looked better to me so far in Indiana.

[jayjaysee]

I have Lauri as a tier or two higher than Siakam. More efficient, better shooter and rebounder throughout their careers, plus he’s three years younger. I thought that Pascal had started to decline earlier this season and that might account for some diminished value, but he’s looked better to me so far in Indiana.

The Pascal reference was to last year at the draft, not what he actually got. What he actually got is discounted due to contract status. At least most felt that way.

The age difference between Pascal at the draft (just turned 29) and Lauri at this coming draft (just turned 28) is not a big factor. And the offensive advantage that Lauri has is true but Pascal has an almost equally large advantage on the other side right?

At the draft, it was at least rumored (in some level? Maybe best to call it “floated”) that teams were offering a lottery pick and another pick - and most felt 3rd for Pascal was an overpay on its own.

[SkyHook]

I have Lauri as a tier or two higher than Siakam. More efficient, better shooter and rebounder throughout their careers, plus he’s three years younger. I thought that Pascal had started to decline earlier this season and that might account for some diminished value, but he’s looked better to me so far in Indiana.

The Pascal reference was to last year at the draft, not what he actually got. What he actually got is discounted due to contract status. At least most felt that way.

The age difference between Pascal at the draft (just turned 29) and Lauri at this coming draft (just turned 28) is not a big factor. And the offensive advantage that Lauri has is true but Pascal has an almost equally large advantage on the other side right?

At the draft, it was at least rumored (in some level? Maybe best to call it “floated”) that teams were offering a lottery pick and another pick - and most felt 3rd for Pascal was an overpay on its own.

Lauri is 26, turns 27 just before the draft. There isn’t a perfect comprehensive advanced metric, but I’m partial to EPM. Lauri’s advantage in oEPM is significantly higher than Pascal’s in dEPM.

Again, I don’t think that Ainge is inclined to move Markannen, but, if he does and wants to maximize the return, it would be better to do the reported renegotiation-and-extension in early July and look to move him at the deadline after he becomes trade eligible. What do you think?

[jayjaysee]

I have Lauri as a tier or two higher than Siakam. More efficient, better shooter and rebounder throughout their careers, plus he’s three years younger. I thought that Pascal had started to decline earlier this season and that might account for some diminished value, but he’s looked better to me so far in Indiana.

The Pascal reference was to last year at the draft, not what he actually got. What he actually got is discounted due to contract status. At least most felt that way.

The age difference between Pascal at the draft (just turned 29) and Lauri at this coming draft (just turned 28) is not a big factor. And the offensive advantage that Lauri has is true but Pascal has an almost equally large advantage on the other side right?

At the draft, it was at least rumored (in some level? Maybe best to call it “floated”) that teams were offering a lottery pick and another pick - and most felt 3rd for Pascal was an overpay on its own.

Lauri is 26, turns 27 just before the draft. There isn’t a perfect comprehensive advanced metric, but I’m partial to EPM. Lauri’s advantage in oEPM is significantly higher than Pascal’s in dEPM.

Again, I don’t think that Ainge is inclined to move Markannen, but, if he does and wants to maximize the return, it would be better to do the reported renegotiation-and-extension in early July and look to move him at the deadline after he becomes trade eligible. What do you think?

I was wrong about Lauri’s age. That’s my fault.

But Lauri can’t be renegotiated until August 28th due to 3 year rule (all old CBA stuff so maybe it is dated) - but from my understanding. if Lauri is renegotiated he won’t be trade eligible next season (6 months will almost surely be after the trade deadline)

So if Utah is trading him.. it’s really tough to not value him as an expiring.

And if Utah is renegotiating him, they aren’t trading him until the 2025 draft.

Neither is a bad option. The only bad option is just sitting still with the roster IMHO. Add a star or trade a star.

[SkyHook]

I was wrong about Lauri’s age. That’s my fault.

But Lauri can’t be renegotiated until August 28th due to 3 year rule (all old CBA stuff so maybe it is dated) - but from my understanding. if Lauri is renegotiated he won’t be trade eligible next season (6 months will almost surely be after the trade deadline)

So if Utah is trading him.. it’s really tough to not value him as an expiring.

And if Utah is renegotiating him, they aren’t trading him until the 2025 draft.

Neither is a bad option. The only bad option is just sitting still with the roster IMHO. Add a star or trade a star.

Thanks for the info, I hadn’t looked at his contract signing date. It’s still the 3-year rule in the new CBA. (I hope that Larry Coon updates his FAQ soon; the actual CBA is a clunky read.) I think this makes the already slim possibility of Utah moving Lauri before next summer even tinier.

[jayjaysee]

I was wrong about Lauri’s age. That’s my fault.

But Lauri can’t be renegotiated until August 28th due to 3 year rule (all old CBA stuff so maybe it is dated) - but from my understanding. if Lauri is renegotiated he won’t be trade eligible next season (6 months will almost surely be after the trade deadline)

So if Utah is trading him.. it’s really tough to not value him as an expiring.

And if Utah is renegotiating him, they aren’t trading him until the 2025 draft.

Neither is a bad option. The only bad option is just sitting still with the roster IMHO. Add a star or trade a star.

Thanks for the info, I hadn’t looked at his contract signing date. It’s still the 3-year rule in the new CBA. (I hope that Larry Coon updates his FAQ soon; the actual CBA is a clunky read.) I think this makes the already slim possibility of Utah moving Lauri before next summer even tinier.

Yeah, a cap space team could sit on 20-25 million for Lauri, assuming they trade for him at the draft. Renegotiate date would be early enough in the season that you could bank on using part of the Room exem on buy outs or get lucky with a stashed guy? Something. Detroit very easily could add a really good free agent and have that cap space available.

OKC is already a contender and has 30 million in cap space next summer, they could easily trade Josh, Dieng and a couple firsts for Lauri and sit with the rest of their cap space as the roster is deep enough already. Not sure you really need Lauri with Chet/Jalen/SGA and the rest of that roster, but why not? No idea what Lauri costs to lock up for 3 extra years, but adding 25 million to next season should keep it well below a true 30% max right? No tax issues for two years with that group is pretty unfair.

But.. it seems really unlikely to me that a team takes the risk of letting him play 25-30 games as an expiring and still pays full value.

[SkyHook]

I was wrong about Lauri’s age. That’s my fault.

But Lauri can’t be renegotiated until August 28th due to 3 year rule (all old CBA stuff so maybe it is dated) - but from my understanding. if Lauri is renegotiated he won’t be trade eligible next season (6 months will almost surely be after the trade deadline)

So if Utah is trading him.. it’s really tough to not value him as an expiring.

And if Utah is renegotiating him, they aren’t trading him until the 2025 draft.

Neither is a bad option. The only bad option is just sitting still with the roster IMHO. Add a star or trade a star.

Thanks for the info, I hadn’t looked at his contract signing date. It’s still the 3-year rule in the new CBA. (I hope that Larry Coon updates his FAQ soon; the actual CBA is a clunky read.) I think this makes the already slim possibility of Utah moving Lauri before next summer even tinier.

Yeah, a cap space team could sit on 20-25 million for Lauri, assuming they trade for him at the draft. Renegotiate date would be early enough in the season that you could bank on using part of the Room exem on buy outs or get lucky with a stashed guy? Something. Detroit very easily could add a really good free agent and have that cap space available.

OKC is already a contender and has 30 million in cap space next summer, they could easily trade Josh, Dieng and a couple firsts for Lauri and sit with the rest of their cap space as the roster is deep enough already. Not sure you really need Lauri with Chet/Jalen/SGA and the rest of that roster, but why not? No idea what Lauri costs to lock up for 3 extra years, but adding 25 million to next season should keep it well below a true 30% max right? No tax issues for two years with that group is pretty unfair.

But.. it seems really unlikely to me that a team takes the risk of letting him play 25-30 games as an expiring and still pays full value.

And I get all of that, but since I can’t picture a scenario where Ainge moves Lauri for less than full value—there’s just no reason to do so—it’s further solidifying my assumption that there’s unlikely a deal to be made.

[Scoot McGroot]

I was wrong about Lauri’s age. That’s my fault.

But Lauri can’t be renegotiated until August 28th due to 3 year rule (all old CBA stuff so maybe it is dated) - but from my understanding. if Lauri is renegotiated he won’t be trade eligible next season (6 months will almost surely be after the trade deadline)

So if Utah is trading him.. it’s really tough to not value him as an expiring.

And if Utah is renegotiating him, they aren’t trading him until the 2025 draft.

Neither is a bad option. The only bad option is just sitting still with the roster IMHO. Add a star or trade a star.

Thanks for the info, I hadn’t looked at his contract signing date. It’s still the 3-year rule in the new CBA. (I hope that Larry Coon updates his FAQ soon; the actual CBA is a clunky read.) I think this makes the already slim possibility of Utah moving Lauri before next summer even tinier.

Yeah, a cap space team could sit on 20-25 million for Lauri, assuming they trade for him at the draft. Renegotiate date would be early enough in the season that you could bank on using part of the Room exem on buy outs or get lucky with a stashed guy? Something. Detroit very easily could add a really good free agent and have that cap space available.

OKC is already a contender and has 30 million in cap space next summer, they could easily trade Josh, Dieng and a couple firsts for Lauri and sit with the rest of their cap space as the roster is deep enough already. Not sure you really need Lauri with Chet/Jalen/SGA and the rest of that roster, but why not? No idea what Lauri costs to lock up for 3 extra years, but adding 25 million to next season should keep it well below a true 30% max right? No tax issues for two years with that group is pretty unfair.

But.. it seems really unlikely to me that a team takes the risk of letting him play 25-30 games as an expiring and still pays full value.

Have to hit the salary cap floor by opening night or it’s penalized and the difference of how far under you are is added to the books. In theory, a team cannot take more than $14m in cap space into the season.

[jayjaysee]

Thanks for the info, I hadn’t looked at his contract signing date. It’s still the 3-year rule in the new CBA. (I hope that Larry Coon updates his FAQ soon; the actual CBA is a clunky read.) I think this makes the already slim possibility of Utah moving Lauri before next summer even tinier.

Yeah, a cap space team could sit on 20-25 million for Lauri, assuming they trade for him at the draft. Renegotiate date would be early enough in the season that you could bank on using part of the Room exem on buy outs or get lucky with a stashed guy? Something. Detroit very easily could add a really good free agent and have that cap space available.

OKC is already a contender and has 30 million in cap space next summer, they could easily trade Josh, Dieng and a couple firsts for Lauri and sit with the rest of their cap space as the roster is deep enough already. Not sure you really need Lauri with Chet/Jalen/SGA and the rest of that roster, but why not? No idea what Lauri costs to lock up for 3 extra years, but adding 25 million to next season should keep it well below a true 30% max right? No tax issues for two years with that group is pretty unfair.

But.. it seems really unlikely to me that a team takes the risk of letting him play 25-30 games as an expiring and still pays full value.

Have to hit the salary cap floor by opening night or it’s penalized and the difference of how far under you are is added to the books. In theory, a team cannot take more than $14m in cap space into the season.

Just for fun again..

Say you wanted to loophole that, since they did such a good job blocking my aggregating loop holes…

Sit on the 14 million and give the other 16-20 million to reunite Muscala with a January 7th guarantee date? Would leave you with the cap space if you waive him end of November/beginning of December when you renegotiate Lauri?

Or you just pay to dump an 8-10 million dollar contract when it’s time?

I tried to look it up myself, but only find the same wording you used “90% on opening night” not “90% at any time”…

I don’t love that rule as much as most seemed to, I think rebuilding teams should be allowed to Hinkie or whatever strategy they want to use in order to collect assets and get back to being a competitive team. They’re still technically allowed, but lose a lot of money in doing so..