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Smitty731 wrote:

Spoiler:

Updated 6/3

Current Cap Space: None. $23,035,183.00 over
Maximum Cap Space: $25,117,875.00 (if all options/guarantees were not picked up, all FAs renounced, no Draft Picks were to be signed this season, and all Exceptions were renounced)
Projected Cap Space: $35,246.00 over
Luxury Tax Space: $32,372,475.00
Tax Apron Space: $36,372,475.00

How I got there:

Guaranteed Contracts (9): Avery Bradley, Kelly Olynyk, Marcus Smart, Jared Sullinger, Isaiah Thomas, Evan Turner, Gerald Wallace, James Young, Tyler Zeller

Partial/Non-Guaranteed Contracts Kept (2): Chris Babb, Phil Pressey

Restricted FAs given Qualifying Offers (2): Jae Crowder, Luigi Datome

FA Cap Holds (2): Brandon Bass, Jonas Jerebko

FAs Renounced/Players Waived (13): Carlos Arroyo, Dana Barros, P.J. Brown, Mark Bryant, Michael Finley, Nenad Krstic, Grant Long, Stephon Marbury, Roshown McLeod, Michael Olowokandi, Shaquille O’Neal, Scot Pollard, Chris Wilcox

Draft Pick Holds (2): Pick #16, Pick #28

Carried Money (0): None

Expected Exceptions (based on Cap space projection, subject to change): Non-Taxpayer Exception at $5,464,000.00. Bi-Annual at $2,139,000.00. TPEs at $12,909,091.00 (Rajon Rondo), $7,707,865.00 (Tayshaun Prince), $5,000,000.00 (Brandan Wright), $1,336,394.00 (Marcus Thornton), $1,334,092.00 (Kris Humphries), $689,840.00 (Austin Rivers), $625,280.00 (Jameer Nelson), $507,336.00 (Dwight Powell), $285,816.00 (Keith Bogans), $152,757.00 (Joel Anthony)

Line of Thinking:

The Celtics started out the season with hope of possibly being decent if Rajon Rondo bounced back and Jeff Green stepped up. Neither of those things really happened. Both were moved, along with several other players, in a flurry of moves. And then a funny thing happened, the Celtics became a really solid team. They put together one of the better records in the league after the Trade Deadline. And then they unexpectedly made the Playoffs. Danny Ainge openly said it wasn’t how he planned for things to go, but you go with what happens.

Where does this leave the Celtics now? They aren’t a contender. They aren’t a bottom dweller. They are kind of sitting in the middle. That is a dangerous place to be in the NBA.

The Celtics have plenty of options going forward. A ton of Draft picks (as many as 12 over the next two seasons) are coming their way. They also have either some of the largest TPEs in the league or a chance to have Cap space like the franchise hasn’t seen in decades.

In order to maintain the chance to use the TPEs, I think the Celtics operate as an over the Cap team. They have 9 guaranteed contracts. Those are all easy. The two non-guaranteed deals are likely to be kept as well. Either guy can be used in a trade, or waived if the space is needed.

As for the FAs, the Celtics will likely hang on to the rights for Brandon Bass and Jonas Jerebko. Bass has been productive for years on a very good deal. If Boston was to work their way in to contention, he’d be a great guy to have coming off the bench. Jerebko played great for Boston after leaving Detroit. He could be back on a reasonable deal as well.

The RFAs are somewhat cut and dry as well. Crowder is a lock to get a Qualifying Offer. He was terrific for Boston and definitely someone the Celtics would like to keep. They won’t go crazy, but any reasonable offer should be matched. Datome had his moments in green as well. I think he’ll get a QO, but the Celtics won’t rush to bring him back. If the deal is right, and there is roster space, he may have a home in Boston. Otherwise, the Celtics will move on.

All the flexibility is there for Boston. Danny Ainge has repeatedly said it is about putting your team in the position to make a move when it presents itself. Boston will likely inquire about every major FA and some of the rumored trade targets as well. They can put together packages of picks, Cap relief and young assets that most teams can’t match. They promised fireworks last summer. Maybe this summer that comes true.

brackdan70 wrote:
thanks for sharing...didn't the Cs use most of the Brandon Wright TPE to acquire Jerekbo though?

Smitty731 wrote:

brackdan70 wrote:
thanks for sharing...didn't the Cs use most of the Brandon Wright TPE to acquire Jerekbo though?

Good catch! Forgot to update the Rivers and Wright TPEs. They were both partially used to get Datome and Jerebko.

Thanks!

Smitty731 wrote:In order to maintain the chance to use the TPEs, I think the Celtics operate as an over the Cap team. They have 9 guaranteed contracts. Those are all easy. The two non-guaranteed deals are likely to be kept as well. Either guy can be used in a trade, or waived if the space is needed.

HartfordWhalers wrote:

Smitty731 wrote:In order to maintain the chance to use the TPEs, I think the Celtics operate as an over the Cap team. They have 9 guaranteed contracts. Those are all easy. The two non-guaranteed deals are likely to be kept as well. Either guy can be used in a trade, or waived if the space is needed.

Mind working me through how you see that playing out?

I'm lazy eyeballing it right now, but it looks like Boston can use the TPE's and bring on 21m in contracts with the highest salary only 13m and relying on trade or sign and trades that hard cap the team (Using the ~13 and ~8TPE's as the rest don't matter).

In contrast the team could have roughly 20m in open cap space without the TPE restrictions just cutting the cap holds, while keeping the holds of 16, 28 and Crowder.

I get that the bigger MLE is more attractive than getting stuck with the under-over one, but I don't see it playing out that what Boston wants to do fits all into TPE sign and trades and not targeting anyone for more than 13m at all.

My guess is the team tries to use the TPE's until July 1st, and then switches to an under the cap team for the added flexibility.

Smitty731 wrote:

HartfordWhalers wrote:

Smitty731 wrote:In order to maintain the chance to use the TPEs, I think the Celtics operate as an over the Cap team. They have 9 guaranteed contracts. Those are all easy. The two non-guaranteed deals are likely to be kept as well. Either guy can be used in a trade, or waived if the space is needed.

Mind working me through how you see that playing out?

I'm lazy eyeballing it right now, but it looks like Boston can use the TPE's and bring on 21m in contracts with the highest salary only 13m and relying on trade or sign and trades that hard cap the team (Using the ~13 and ~8TPE's as the rest don't matter).

In contrast the team could have roughly 20m in open cap space without the TPE restrictions just cutting the cap holds, while keeping the holds of 16, 28 and Crowder.

I get that the bigger MLE is more attractive than getting stuck with the under-over one, but I don't see it playing out that what Boston wants to do fits all into TPE sign and trades and not targeting anyone for more than 13m at all.

My guess is the team tries to use the TPE's until July 1st, and then switches to an under the cap team for the added flexibility.

We are pretty much on the same page. I think it stretches through the moratorium that they will try to use the TPEs. Then once/if they need Cap space, they will dump the TPEs and Cap Holds. My projection is just where I think they start things off. I don't think they will immediately renounce their FAs and dump their exceptions. I think they will look to use what they can and then dump everything else after.

My main reasoning is that Ainge brings up the TPEs quite a bit in different conversations. And he obviously angled to have them. I think that signals that he intends to use them if he can.

The point about flexibility is the key. The Celtics are in position to go either way. I do think, barring some team hitting him with an offer, Crowder will sit for a while. The Celtics definitely want him back, but he has such a low Cap Hold, there is no rush to sign him. Unless their hand is forced of course.

HartfordWhalers wrote:
We are pretty much on the same page. I think it stretches through the moratorium that they will try to use the TPEs. Then once/if they need Cap space, they will dump the TPEs and Cap Holds. My projection is just where I think they start things off. I don't think they will immediately renounce their FAs and dump their exceptions. I think they will look to use what they can and then dump everything else after.

My main reasoning is that Ainge brings up the TPEs quite a bit in different conversations. And he obviously angled to have them. I think that signals that he intends to use them if he can.

The point about flexibility is the key. The Celtics are in position to go either way. I do think, barring some team hitting him with an offer, Crowder will sit for a while. The Celtics definitely want him back, but he has such a low Cap Hold, there is no rush to sign him. Unless their hand is forced of course.

Only in one specific circumstance -- when they renounce one or more of their players in order to create enough cap room to sign another team's restricted free agent, but the restricted free agent's original team matches the offer sheet and keeps him. If that happens, the team can rescind the renouncement.

However, a team can't rescind a renouncement if doing so takes them from below the salary cap to above it; or if they are already above the cap and rescinding the renouncement takes them farther above the cap than they were before the renouncement. This closes a loophole -- it prevents a team from rescinding a player in order to make an offer, then if the offer isn't accepted using the resulting cap space to sign another free agent, before rescinding the renouncement to get back the renounced player's Bird rights.

Smitty731 wrote:However, a team can't rescind a renouncement if doing so takes them from below the salary cap to above it