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PMOTT3 and Chuck Texas Early Off-Season Review: Detroit Pistons

Posted: Tue Aug 11, 2015 1:04 pm
by Texas Chuck
PMOTT3's Review:

Losses:

Greg Monroe
Tayshaun Prince
Tuff Juice
Quincy Miller
Shawne Williams

Monroe is the big one here. Im sure he'll be missed but the Monroe/Drummond pairing just wasn't going to work in the SVG system.

Draft:

Stanley Johnson
Darrun Hilliard

I didnt hate the Johnson pick but i didnt love it with Winslow still on the board at #8. He's looked pretty good in SL though; I'm eager to see how he performs when the season starts.

Trades:

Shawne Williams and Caron Butler for Ilyasova
Quincy Miller for Steve Blake
2020 2nd for Marcus Morris, Granger, Reggie Bullock

Im not sure i trust Illyasova to return to the form he was at a couple years ago and be that stretch 4 big Stan wants but its hard to bash the trade when they gave up basically cap space for him.

Miller for Blake i dont really see making an impact either way you look at it.

I dont really get the Morris trade. Granger is washed up and Bullock is just a guy. So this boils down to Marcus Morris who is a decently useful role player. But why bring in a guy who is still in the process of going through felony charges? He's just not the kind of guy I'd want in my locker room and he doesn't bring enough to the table to justify keeping him in the locker room either.

Free Agency:

Aron Baynes
Reggie Jackson
Joel Anthony

Baynes was a slight overpay but they now have a center who can stay on the court to shoot free throws if the opposing team plays hack-a-shaq.

Jackson had to have been one of the most ugliest contracts given out. Hated it. Its right up there with the Asik contract for me.

Anthony shouldn't be making anything above the minimum.

Current Depth Chart (pretty rough):

PG: Jackson/Jennings/Blake/Dinwiddie
SG: Meeks/KCP/Hillard
SF: Johnson/Martin/Bullock/Granger
PF: Illyasova/Tolliver/Morris
C: Drummond/Baynes/Anthony

Needs:

They need for KCP to take the leap. Jackson needs to take a leap as well. Johnson needs to be able to stay in the rotation for the first season at the very least. Really they just need more talent though. Drummond is their star talent and he can't be your go-to scorer.

Additional Thoughts:

I hate that they got nothing out of Monroe and he just walked. I also dont really see enough talent on the roster to make the playoffs. I think if Detroit isn't in the mix for that 8 seed by the all star break then they really need to shut it down for that high lotto pick next draft.

Win/Loss Prediction: 31-51

Off-Season Grade: F

Would have gone with Winslow or the Boston package before Johnson. Jackson contract was gross. The rest of their FA moves ranged from slight overpay to overpay. Wasn't a fan of bringing in Marcus Morris. I dont trust Illyasova to be that stretch 4. Too many negatives this off-season for me.

Chuck Texas' Review:

Losses:

Greg Monroe
Tayshaun Prince
Tuff Juice
Quincy Miller
Shawne Williams


Monroe is obviously the big one. It will be interesting to see how much they miss him. Obviously he was one of their best players, but the fit might be better now.

Draft:

Stanley Johnson
Darrun Hilliard


I wasn't as high as most on the Johnson pick--particularly with Winslow on the board and Boston apparently offering the moon to get up in this part of the draft. But I know lots of you guys love Johnson so I'm going to conclude this was a good pick.

Trades:

Shawne Williams and Caron Butler for Ilyasova
Quincy Miller for Steve Blake
2020 2nd for Marcus Morris, Granger, Reggie Bullock


I am not a fan of Ilyasova, but I do get his fit here and on a one year trial that cost you nothing but cap space I don't mind it at all. Miller for Blake is kinda fine as a stopgap with Jennings injury, but it tells me that Dinwiddie isn't much in the plans. I didn't really understand the deal for Morris, Granger, Bullock at all. Morris is a semi-useful player at best and he's got felony charges hanging over his head, is a known knucklehead and its gamble if he can really even function without Kieff. And Granger and Bullock are just ballast.

Free Agency:

Reggie Jackson to crazy money
Joel Anthony
Aron Baynes


I hate the Jackson contract. I know the Pistons fans all love the guy, but this guy isn't even an average starting PG at this point and he just got huge money. And I have no idea why Anthony is still in the league much less getting over the vet min. Must be a great guy in the room--nothing else here makes sense as he's been done as a player for years. I like the Baynes signing tho it feels a bit rich. I do think he will help behind Drummond.

Depth Chart(rough):

Drummond/BaynesAnthony
Ilyasova/Tolliver/Morris
Johnson/Martin/Bullock/Granger
Meeks/KCP/Hillard
Jackson/(Jennings)/Blake/Dinwiddie

I would go ahead and start Johnson from the jump and for balance I would elevate Meeks over KCP.

Needs:

Talent, talent, talent. Drummond is their best player and only even average level starter at this point. Johnson needs to become a highly capable starter and quickly. But they need starters at PF/SG at a minimum.

Additional thoughts:

I just don't feel a lot of hope here. Either Jackson steps up and really becomes a top 12 PG and Johnson is for real or there just isn't much encouraging in Detroit. Too much dead weight on the roster right now and it feels like a long year.

Win-loss Prediction: 28-54

They might can get into the low 30's since its the East, but a lot of teams in the East have been making improvements. It's just hard for me to see any hope at the playoffs and if Johnson isn't ready this could be one of the worst teams in the league.

Off-Season Grade: D

Hate the Jackson money even with cap rising. The trades mainly seem like shuffling bodies with Ilyasova being the most significant addition. Again Johnson was likely a good pick, but that Boston package would have made infinitely more sense for a team that needs so many things. The whole Monroe situation was a loss of value. Just ugh.

Re: PMOTT3 and Chuck Texas Early Off-Season Review: Detroit Pistons

Posted: Tue Aug 11, 2015 2:10 pm
by dVs33
Detroit finished with 32-50 last season despite the josh smith situation that resulted in a 5-23 start and all the different injuries and trades. They should be better next season overall.
Johnson and Morris are upgrades at SF. Ilyasova's health is a question mark, but he makes up for Monroes scoring and is a better fit next to Drummond. Meeks should be healthy. Jennings will be back soon. Losing Monroe sucks, but overall they should improve.

Re: PMOTT3 and Chuck Texas Early Off-Season Review: Detroit Pistons

Posted: Tue Aug 11, 2015 2:57 pm
by The Penguin
I do think the Marcus Morris and Reggie Jackson moves were a bit of panic reactionary moves. Plan A & B in FA was Danny Green & DeMarre Carroll as the team was targeting a wing. When they missed on those, Stan has said it was a bit of a panic on where to go next but Brower talked him into waiting for a trade, when the Morris deal happened, there weren't many other alternatives for wings who can provide minutes. Jackson likely got a couple extra million per year due to the Monroe situation, but given the way contracts are set to explode and it's a 5 year deal, in 2 years it could look like a very favorable contract.

Maybe it's a disconnect between being a fan and an outside POV, but I really don't understand the "Need soo many things" take.

PG - Set for the time being - Jackson with Jennings recovering as a potentially strong 6th man/3rd guard role (Brandon was on board with the Jackson trade) - Dinwiddie/Blake providing depth

SG - KCP is a wildcard who most fans are still pretty high on, he's shown he's a strong defensive player already and was starting to get more comfortable offensively - Meeks is also recovering from injury but should be a solid backup if not push KCP for minutes

SF - Johnson shined in SL granted it was SL, but if he keeps it up he's a legitimate ROTY candidate, Morris provides an upgrade over Prince/Singler from last year.

PF - The one real problem spot with no long term solution, Ilyasova/Morris/Tolliver should at least provide the stretch element Stan wants.

C - Set with Drummond while Baynes complements his weaknesses well.

It's a very young team with guys still learning and new pieces to gel, so there could certainly be growing pains and losses, but the team seems to fit together much more than some of Joe D's mismatched squads and the 28-31 win area was where those teams routinely landed.

Re: PMOTT3 and Chuck Texas Early Off-Season Review: Detroit Pistons

Posted: Tue Aug 11, 2015 4:19 pm
by CBA
The Penguin wrote:Plan A & B in FA was Danny Green & DeMarre Carroll as the team was targeting a wing. When they missed on those, Stan has said it was a bit of a panic


This in an indication of some sort of disconnect from reality by the front office.

Re: PMOTT3 and Chuck Texas Early Off-Season Review: Detroit Pistons

Posted: Tue Aug 11, 2015 4:30 pm
by princeofpalace
When you go onto the Pistons board, most posters think we had a great offseason. A lot of posters think we had a homerun offseason and that we will go onto win 45-50 games. However, nearly everyone who isn't a Pistons fan has Detroit's offseason rated near the bottom and has Detroit as a likely lottery team next season. It will be interesting to see which side is right.

Re: PMOTT3 and Chuck Texas Early Off-Season Review: Detroit Pistons

Posted: Tue Aug 11, 2015 4:52 pm
by The Penguin
CBA wrote:
The Penguin wrote:Plan A & B in FA was Danny Green & DeMarre Carroll as the team was targeting a wing. When they missed on those, Stan has said it was a bit of a panic


This in an indication of some sort of disconnect from reality by the front office.



Carroll was going to Detroit after visiting Toronto while the Pistons were on the phone with Green's agent at midnight on the 1st. I don't think anyone saw Toronto offering Carroll the contract they did, or Green signing for a big discount. The market for SFs was very small.

Re: PMOTT3 and Chuck Texas Early Off-Season Review: Detroit Pistons

Posted: Tue Aug 11, 2015 4:55 pm
by tmorgan
Yeah, it's impossible to make a truly unbiased assessment of one's own team, and I applaud the general effort you're making, but I think you guys are truly, completely off here.

The records you've described are the worse-case scenario for this team (30 wins), and while they're possible, it would require nearly everything to go wrong. Unless there's an injury to Drummond, this team is significantly better than you've described. I guess this explains why I expect to see a bunch of unwarranted "Detroit is the surprise team in the East" articles a few months into the season, but it won't be a surprise to most of us.

1) In this market, Jackson likely wasn't overpaid. His numbers for Detroit are what he's capable of with the ball in his hands as the starter, and they were pretty good numbers. Great chemistry with Drummond on the P&R, great penetration in general, good rebounder, good passer. Needs to improve his defense and outside shot, certainly, but he's already a top 15 PG and could grow into more with this opportunity.

2) If early returns mean anything, Johnson over Winslow was the correct choice. This can't truly be evaluated yet, but Stanimal looks like the secondary ball handler, defender, and scorer we needed at the 3. He'll start this season, maybe immediately, depending on the lesser Morris' ability to pull himself together.

3) Ilyasova will start at the 4, it appears, but that doesn't mean he'll play 30 minutes. All of Baynes, Morris, and Tolliver will see some minutes there. We don't need Ersan of three years ago -- last year's version will be just fine.

4) The only loss of consequence was Monroe. Yes, he's talented, so from that perspective, we took a step back. The thing is, we didn't win more with him on the court, and he played over half of his minutes at the wrong position for us, so the actual loss isn't much. We'll be better defensively at the 4 without him and we don't really need his rebounding. We'll miss the minutes he played center (about 15 a game) and we'll miss his passing down low, but that's it. We'll also have far more minutes a game with a competent shooter at PF, which should make a big difference in the offense.

Overall, the defense will be better AND the offense should be better. The team has young starters at every position except PF, so internal improvement is realistic. The pieces are now in place for SVG to run his style of offense, and the athletes are in place to run an aggressive defense. And, there's SVG, a good coach. My personal prediction for the Pistons is 41-41 and 7th or 8th in the conference. There are optimistic fans that see much more than that, and a few that are closer to your level, but no one is thinking 28 wins this year -- that's just not going to happen barring injury.

Re: PMOTT3 and Chuck Texas Early Off-Season Review: Detroit Pistons

Posted: Tue Aug 11, 2015 5:00 pm
by RealityIsDemar
Don't get me wrong, I didn't like the Jackson contract, but when I looked at his stats while he was a Piston I was extremely impressed.

17.6 PPG, 9.2 APG, 4.7 RPG. He was a triple double machine and seemed like a pretty good fit.

They overpaid, but they overpaid off potential which is the best type of overpaying. If he can always play at that level it won't be as atrocious of a contract as people make it out to be. Not to mention with the cap going up 16 Million a year right now is the equivalent to 12.4 Million (under the current cap) in 2015, and in 2016 that number will be 10.1 Million. So not only will the contract get better (or less worse if you think of it that way) Jackson has a chance to earn the money over time as well.

Re: PMOTT3 and Chuck Texas Early Off-Season Review: Detroit Pistons

Posted: Tue Aug 11, 2015 5:00 pm
by bondom34
Yeah, I agree with not really liking some of the moves they made, and don't know where I grade them (C- feels about right to me). I don't really think any of the additions were huge upgrades, felt like Jackson was an overpay, and they lost Monroe. All that said, I still don't see a way they win under 30. I feel like 35-40 is about right for them most likely, and they're around 10th or so in the East.

Re: PMOTT3 and Chuck Texas Early Off-Season Review: Detroit Pistons

Posted: Tue Aug 11, 2015 5:08 pm
by CBA
The Penguin wrote:
CBA wrote:
The Penguin wrote:Plan A & B in FA was Danny Green & DeMarre Carroll as the team was targeting a wing. When they missed on those, Stan has said it was a bit of a panic


This in an indication of some sort of disconnect from reality by the front office.



Carroll was going to Detroit after visiting Toronto while the Pistons were on the phone with Green's agent at midnight on the 1st. I don't think anyone saw Toronto offering Carroll the contract they did, or Green signing for a big discount. The market for SFs was very small.


Expecting those guys to move from 60 win teams to a lottery team isn't smart. Paying those guys the money necessary to make that a possibility really isn't smart.

Re: PMOTT3 and Chuck Texas Early Off-Season Review: Detroit Pistons

Posted: Tue Aug 11, 2015 5:24 pm
by Laimbeer
CBA wrote:
The Penguin wrote:
CBA wrote:
This in an indication of some sort of disconnect from reality by the front office.



Carroll was going to Detroit after visiting Toronto while the Pistons were on the phone with Green's agent at midnight on the 1st. I don't think anyone saw Toronto offering Carroll the contract they did, or Green signing for a big discount. The market for SFs was very small.


Expecting those guys to move from 60 win teams to a lottery team isn't smart. Paying those guys the money necessary to make that a possibility really isn't smart.


Agree. The Carroll deal was plenty rich and upping the ante would have been just crazy.

Re: PMOTT3 and Chuck Texas Early Off-Season Review: Detroit Pistons

Posted: Tue Aug 11, 2015 5:27 pm
by Laimbeer
RealityIsDemar wrote:Don't get me wrong, I didn't like the Jackson contract, but when I looked at his stats while he was a Piston I was extremely impressed.

17.6 PPG, 9.2 APG, 4.7 RPG. He was a triple double machine and seemed like a pretty good fit.

They overpaid, but they overpaid off potential which is the best type of overpaying. If he can always play at that level it won't be as atrocious of a contract as people make it out to be. Not to mention with the cap going up 16 Million a year right now is the equivalent to 12.4 Million (under the current cap) in 2015, and in 2016 that number will be 10.1 Million. So not only will the contract get better (or less worse if you think of it that way) Jackson has a chance to earn the money over time as well.


Well said. And you also have to ask yourself, what does Detroit do with that cap if not sign Jackson? It's been forced in the past and we ended up with guys like Charlie V., Gordon, and Smoove on big deals.

Re: PMOTT3 and Chuck Texas Early Off-Season Review: Detroit Pistons

Posted: Tue Aug 11, 2015 5:37 pm
by winter_mute_13
Whoa, wasn't expecting that. My opinion is closer to bondom's. Maybe I'm just higher on Jackson than most.

Re: PMOTT3 and Chuck Texas Early Off-Season Review: Detroit Pistons

Posted: Tue Aug 11, 2015 6:11 pm
by DanishLakerFan
Not a big fan of the Pistons' offseason. Overpaying for Reggie and watching Monroe leave was inevitable i suppose and i would easily have taken Winslow ahead of Johnson, although Johnson looked awesome in summer league. I do like their role player pickups and i do think that Stanley, Reggie, DeAndre can be a nice young core to build around, but i would have liked to see them do something else.

Re: PMOTT3 and Chuck Texas Early Off-Season Review: Detroit Pistons

Posted: Tue Aug 11, 2015 6:35 pm
by giberish
I'm not a big fan of the Jackson contract - IMO Detroit fans are putting too much faith in a small sample-size run - but it's not that bad either.

Detroit is one of several teams I thought should have taken a run at Jae Crowder. He's a better age fit and likely cheaper than Carroll or Green. Does $10M/yr get him away from Boston? Even if it doesn't they'd just be right where they ended up anyway so there's no harm in trying.

Overall a meh C- type of offseason.

Re: PMOTT3 and Chuck Texas Early Off-Season Review: Detroit Pistons

Posted: Tue Aug 11, 2015 7:01 pm
by loserX
The Jackson contract looks especially odd IMHO because they got him so cheaply (a couple of role players and a 2nd rounder). Yes, he was expiring, and yes OKC was desperate to get rid of him, but it just looks funny to get a guy for so little (no other teams offered more?) and then to unflinchingly offer him $80M. Part of the problem for me is that they were bidding against...who, exactly? The market had dried up to the point that only Philly (tanking) and Portland (already have Lillard) could pay him even the 4-year max, and they weren't going to. I just don't see why the Pistons decided to pay him *that* much. "The cap is going up" is not an excuse.

If the plan is to build around Drummond, I actually don't mind it. They added shooting at the 4, scoring at the 1, and I've started to come around on Stanley at the 3. The concept isn't bad if you think Drummond is the future.

The problem is the value. I'm okay with the Stanley pick and the Ilyasova trade. Other than that:
- they didn't get enough value in absorbing all the Suns' contracts in the Morris trade, and took on some character risk besides. Do Marcus and Reggie violate the "two knuckleheads" rule? Hopefully Reggie at least is happy enough to behave...
- they didn't get enough value in the Steve Blake trade, although that was very minor.
- they overpaid on every single one of their FAs.

So I find the theory acceptable but the value in execution has been mostly bad.

Re: PMOTT3 and Chuck Texas Early Off-Season Review: Detroit Pistons

Posted: Tue Aug 11, 2015 7:18 pm
by tiderulz
I like Detroit's pick of Stanley Johnson over Winslow. Winslow is going to be stuck playing mostly SG and his offense is still questionable. He made the big name for himself in the tournament, otherwise no one was really talking him up all year. SJ was someone that was being talked about, but had a bad tournament. I think there is a reason Winslow slid all the way to #10.

I thought Jackson's contract was overpay, especially with Jennings looking like he did pre-injury. but if they really believe in him, he is still young enough to play it out in his prime. Monroe didnt seem to be working with Drummond, so not to hard on them letting him walk. Would have liked to see them trade him though. that is twice now that SVG hasnt gotten anything for a player that he eventually got rid of. There were offers for Josh, and maybe or maybe not for Monroe. I think this is part of SVG never having been a GM and not seeing the whole picture.

But keeping their core intact, while adding SJ, a servicable backup C in Baynes, and a stretch in Ilyasova who should bounce back under SVG, i cant give them worse than a C-.

Re: PMOTT3 and Chuck Texas Early Off-Season Review: Detroit Pistons

Posted: Tue Aug 11, 2015 7:42 pm
by tmorgan
I think the consensus is wrong here, but I really can't argue a mediocre to bad off-season grade, as there are decisions that are definitely questionable. What I'm arguing about is the makeup of the team and the team's record for the upcoming season. This is a solid squad, with upside for more than that because it's so young and yet still experienced (except Stanley). We'll just have to wait for that part to play out, but if anyone wants to wager a RealGM friendly bet (sig, whatever) on the Pistons win total coming in under 36, I'm ready and waiting.

Re: PMOTT3 and Chuck Texas Early Off-Season Review: Detroit Pistons

Posted: Tue Aug 11, 2015 7:51 pm
by tmorgan
tiderulz wrote: I think this is part of SVG never having been a GM and not seeing the whole picture.


Worth a note here: SVG isn't the GM, he's the HC and the President of Basketball Operations. Jeff Bower is the GM and does most of the work in that area. The final decisions lie with SVG, of course, but he defers to Bower's advice in most situations.

At the time he was released, there were no takers for Smith that resulted in a better situation than cutting and stretching him. A year earlier, perhaps, but we tried to make it work. Remember, this was a Dumars signing.

As for Monroe, that's a complicated situation. He wanted out, he wanted to play center, and he wouldn't sign an offer sheet last off-season because he didn't want Detroit to match it (which they would have). Once he was on the QO, he had the power to reject any trade, and clearly the offers/OK from Monroe wasn't there or he would have been dealt, because everyone knew he had one foot out the door. Other than not drafting Drummond (who Monroe advocated for, apparently), there was very little to be done here. He's a loss in terms of talent-for-nothing, but shouldn't really be a loss in terms of team success for various reasons discussed earlier.

Re: PMOTT3 and Chuck Texas Early Off-Season Review: Detroit Pistons

Posted: Tue Aug 11, 2015 8:16 pm
by Kings2013
big year for Drummond. I think this will be the year we see the direction of that career