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bondom34 wrote:bondom34 Review

Key Losses:
Duncan

Losses:
Diaw
Bonner
McCallum
Dre Miller
Martin
Butler
Marjanovic

Draft:
Dejounte Murray

Trades:
Boris Diaw and a 2022 second-rounder to Utah Jazz for the rights to Olivier Hanlan (2015-41st).
Free Agency:
Pau Gasol 2/$31.7 Mil(PO)
Dedmon 2/$5.9 Million (PO)
Manu 1/$14 Million
Davis Bertans $1.4 Million
Livio Jean-Charles 5/$6.1 Million (Rookie Scale)
David Lee 2/$3.1 (PO) estimated
A few minor deals to Arcidiacono, Forbes, maybe others I'm missing


Current Depth Chart: (as usual this is a rough draft taken from bbinsiders)
PG: Tony Parker, Patty Mills, Ryan Arcidiacono
SG: Danny Green, Manu Ginobili, Dejounte Murray, Bryn Forbes
SF: Kawhi Leonard, Jonathon Simmons, Livio Jean-Charles, Davis Bertans
PF: LaMarcus Aldridge, David Lee, Kyle Anderson
C: Pau Gasol, Dewayne Dedmon


Needs:
Not a ton, but they're kind of old at C unless Dedmon is better than I'm giving credit for, and Parker's just not great anymore. That said, the overall roster is really strong, so there's nothing drastically needed.

Additional Thoughts:
No Timmy, I'm sad. It was a Spursy offseason, and I don't know exactly what to expect. Top 3 in the west seems likely, though I doubt 67 wins happens again. Should be a solid playoff contender as usual. Boban was a luxury but not a huge loss (well literally he was). I like the Lee move for them too, but Lee/Pau will be a duo that I assume Pop will try to avoid.

Projected Win/Loss:
58-24
Off-Season Grade:
B+

dbrandon wrote:dbrandon Review

Key Losses:
Tim Duncan

Can't be overstated what this means to the Spurs. The man, the myth, the legend—he's as much a part of the locker room culture in SA as Pop, and his loss will be felt both on and off the court. Even as his statistical production finally tailed off in his last season, he was a factor on the defensive end. Without Duncan, the Spurs are going to have interesting times ahead.

Losses:
Boris Diaw
Matt Bonner
Ray McCallum
Dre Miller
Kevin Martin
Rasaul Butler
Boban Marjanovic

I don't think any of these are a big problem. I'm sure they would have like to keep Boban, but it's not that big of a problem that he walked.

Draft:
Dejounte Murray

I really liked this pick for where it was in the draft. Think he'll do well. Spurs need any infusion of youth they can get.

Trades:
Boris Diaw and a 2022 second-rounder to Utah Jazz for the rights to Olivier Hanlan (2015-41st).

This was to make room for Pau, which is...we'll cover that further down. It's a straight salary dump, and in a vacuum Bobo's probably worth a little more.

Free Agency:
Pau Gasol 2/$31.7 Mil(PO)
Dewayne Dedmon 2/$5.9 Million (PO)
Manu Ginobili 1/$14 Million
Davis Bertans $1.4 Million
Livio Jean-Charles 5/$6.1 Million (Rookie Scale)
David Lee 2/$3.1 (PO) estimated
A few minor deals to Arcidiacono, Forbes, maybe others I'm missing

I really don't know enough about the Euros to comment on them, so I won't. Lee is a decent signing as a Diaw replacement off the bench. Manu was still solid last season, and having him back will help their 2nd unit, even if he doesn't have the same explosion off the bounce that he used to. I like Dedmon a lot as a value signing.

Pau for 15mil a year is not a move I like. Don't get me wrong, I love Pau as a player. But the Spurs are the only Western Conference power that could push Golden State IMO, and even then they struggle with length and athleticism, since their impact players (especially in the backcourt) are aging. So they went out and signed more size in a guy who's really a center at this point in his career, not a great defender, and can't move his feet fast enough to deal with the buzzsaw small lineups that are starting to dominate the league. Maybe I'm wrong and Pop's ahead of the curve again—I've said before that if you want to know what the top teams in the league will look like in 3 years, look at the Spurs and you'll see it in embryo. But I just don't know.

Current Depth Chart: (as usual this is a rough draft taken from bbinsiders)
PG: Tony Parker, Patty Mills, Ryan Arcidiacono
SG: Danny Green, Manu Ginobili, Dejounte Murray, Bryn Forbes
SF: Kawhi Leonard, Jonathon Simmons, Livio Jean-Charles, Davis Bertans
PF: LaMarcus Aldridge, David Lee, Kyle Anderson
C: Pau Gasol, Dewayne Dedmon

I'm expecting Simmons to get a lot more burn, and Anderson is going to have a fair bit more responsibility as a second-unit playmaker.

Needs:
Roster is solid enough, but their backcourt is going to be a problem. Parker just isn't what he used to be, and Ginobili, great as he is for his age, is going to start falling off sooner rather than later. It was already slightly noticeable last year against the Thunder—the Spurs guards just couldn't reliably penetrate the thicket of young guys with long arms to jumpstart their vaunted ball movement. That hasn't changed unless Ginobili's taken Simmons under his wing as a protege.

Additional Thoughts:
Solid playoff team, probably a very good playoff team. Maybe the Euro guys give them a little extra pep, but this team's starting to age, and they desperately need some magic in the backcourt. But the offseason moves are solid with the possible exception of Pau. I've written them off 3 offseasons running as "too old" and they've proven me wrong each time, so maybe they do it again.

Projected Win/Loss:
60 wins
Off-Season Grade:
B-

HartfordWhalers wrote:HartfordWhalers Review

Key Losses:
Tim Duncan

At some point time moves on. But for those feeling nostalgic, the Spurs stretched Duncan. Meaning he will be on their payroll for another 3 years. So, its not like he is totally gone, right?

As a fan of what Duncan has done, I would have loved to see the Spurs able to use Bird rights and give him a sending away 25m in a way similar to Dirk. Or Manu. As a fan of maximum future flexibility, I wish they didn't have to stretch his contract and could have taken it as a 5.5m hit all at once now. Needing the extra 3.7m is something I will address below. As a fan of basketball, I wish Duncan came back one more year and we had Duncan on a Spurs team fighting the GS juggernauts. But it needed to happen at some point, and now was a good time. Asking for more is just being greedy.


Losses:
Matt Bonner
Ray McCallum
Dre Miller
Kevin Martin
Rasaul Butler
Boban Marjanovic

Boban on the Spurs I viewed as the guy likley to suddenly have a full fledged Mark Eaton career. Complete with the one random all star appearance. It is the Spurs, so teachable skills can just be assumed to be learned. Meanwhile, the Physical tools are there (at least in terms of size). The guy is big. Not on the Spurs? Latest big man stiff with some skills and some massive issues, and not a big loss? I dunno. That seems too extreme and I think they dropped the ball letting him go. If it wasn't adding Boban to in a tier of Tim Duncan, I would have this a key loss.

Draft:
Dejounte Murray

When I look at Philly's draft and see picks #24 and #26, I keep thinking they could have been Dejounte Murray and Skal. Too super young super raw kids with some tools that could blossom big time or not. Sometimes those guys work out as Gobert homeruns and sometimes Ricky Ledo happens. But I love the pick, love that the Spurs have the guy who might have needed a shooting coach the most in the draft as their pick, and won't bet against the team.

Trades:
Boris Diaw and a 2022 second-rounder to Utah Jazz for the rights to Olivier Hanlan (2015-41st).

I had Diaw as worth less than this. I had Diaw as more likely to be cut than have his partially guaranteed salary picked up. But everyone did have money. Lots of it. Still, why spend it on Diaw? I didn't like that trade for Utah much at all. For San Antonio? It would be better if it was a closer 2nd, who knows what their record will be then. But I also really like Hanlan as a prospect. I would have been fine with Hanlan for the 2nd -- I would have had that as a win for SAS. So dumping Diaw for free or better? Great trade.

Free Agency:
Pau Gasol 2/$31.7 Mil(PO)
Dewayne Dedmon 2/$5.9 Million (PO)
Manu Ginobili 1/$14 Million
Davis Bertans $1.4 Million
Livio Jean-Charles 5/$6.1 Million (Rookie Scale)
David Lee 2/$3.1 (PO) estimated
A few minor deals to Arcidiacono, Forbes, maybe others I'm missing


Lats things first. Manu gets taken care of, and gets to retire a Spur. And it is done in a way that doesn't hurt the Spurs flexibility going forward. It is the opposite of the Wade situation, where either Miami's future flexibility was foregone, or Wade retires elsewhere. There there was no win-win; someone lost. Here? A clear win win. What do I think about Philly forcing the issue?

It is kinda crazy that it would take a 10 win team to make San Antonio do right by its old stars, right? I have seen someone put out the theory (believe it was on a Lowe podcast?) that if you were going to collude with Manu to lower his cap hit for 1 year, add LMA, then yoyo it back up a ton that the way to do it and make it appear legit would be to fake an offer from Philly. I'm not saying that SAS did that, but I kinda like it better as a theory than they weren't willing to pay Manu a good wage until forced to.

Dedmon is a quality signing at that price, but the depth chart still feels light at center until you remember the pf's will play a bunch of center.

Pau? Okay I will bite. I think this is a dumb signing. I think it is dumb, that Pau has very little left, that going the PO on year 2 is a bad long term play, and that they really mismanaged the offseason grabbing him. Want to know how much I dislike it? I would have liked better a Jeff Green 15m 1 year deal here. And that cap difference of a slightly cheaper whoever could have allowed re-signing Boban without waiving Manu's cap hit. (Not that I think Jeff Green does much for anyone ever.) I could grab another 15 names here for signings I would like more. Ezeli? At his Portland contract would have been great. I think I can talk myself into a 15m a year Biyombo on the Spurs and the team molding him going forward. Pau just doesn't have enough left to be worth that player option, and isn't good enough to justify. Offensively it might be pretty but I have concerns on defense. And transition.

Current Depth Chart: (as usual this is a rough draft taken from bbinsiders)
PG: Tony Parker, Patty Mills, Ryan Arcidiacono
SG: Danny Green, Manu Ginobili, Dejounte Murray, Bryn Forbes
SF: Kawhi Leonard, Jonathon Simmons, Livio Jean-Charles, Davis Bertans
PF: LaMarcus Aldridge, David Lee, Kyle Anderson
C: Pau Gasol, Dewayne Dedmon

Feels thin everywhere but SG, and there they have big question marks

Needs:
Kawhi to hit the god mode button. If he does, the rest doesn't matter. A top 3 NBA player can singlehandedly win a title. And the supporting cast is good enough that he can get that opportunity

Additional Thoughts:
Should have traded Danny Green. Sell high. I've said more before on it, but he is at the age of decline, and his shooting went last year. And he still has value. It was the perfect time to cash out.

What happens with Tony Parker is also going to be very interesting.

Projected Win/Loss: 54

Off-Season Grade: C- Good draft, good trade, good minor signings. Bad Pau move. I started with a C+ when I wrote this, but then talked myself into lowering it two notches. Maybe thats too tough, but I just think Pau doesn't have enough left and thats the big move that the grade depends upon.

Chinook wrote:They are a better match-up with Golden State than they were

dbrandon wrote:

Chinook wrote:They are a better match-up with Golden State than they were

How? Genuinely asking. I don't know how you look at that roster and say "we got slower and bigger, now we're a better matchup with GSW".

bondom34 wrote:Even if you want to say Tim got slower, Pau's not speeding things up.

Chinook wrote:They didn't get slower? I don't know how much non-Spurs fans watched the team last year, but Tim was straight-done after about March. Hell, mobility-wise Duncan hasn't even been below-average for years now. The only reason why that might not have been obvious is because the Spurs' perimeter defenders do a good job of funneling their men to Duncan, so he didn't have to move. Pau can do that same thing. His ability to block shots was never his issue.

Chinook wrote:And obviously adding Dedmon isn't getting slower. Lee, if he ends up being a rotation player, isn't a good defender, but neither was West by the end of it -- and Lee is at least a good rebounder. And Diaw was so shaky that you couldn't count on him.

Chinook wrote:As far as Golden State goes, the goal was never to beat them by doing the same thing as them. The Spurs' advantage was always going to be their perimeter defenders against the Warriors' perimeter-oriented offense. Well, that didn't change. And their complete 180 from pace-and-space to post-city showed they were counting on being bigger and stronger than the Warriors down low. Going from a player who was really struggling to score at the end (except that last half) to probably the most polished true seven-footer in the league offensively seems just to add to that. And of course, Lee's rim-rolling is a better fit to challenge defenses than West popping out for long-twos with mediocre efficiency.

Chinook wrote:It's possible that the team doesn't gel in time to take advantage of their talent. Obviously, corporate knowledge has been key to their success. But they are younger and less one-dimensional than they have been for a while. Considering that their franchise just walked out the door, I don't see what anyone could have reasonably expected them to do differently.

Chinook wrote:

bondom34 wrote:Even if you want to say Tim got slower, Pau's not speeding things up.

He got slower than Pau, and that was bad since he couldn't score anymore. But even so, Tim was so bad that he was marginalized against GS since 2013. He was never part of the equation to beat the Warriors, which I'm not sure most people on this board appreciate.

bondom34 wrote:Even if you want to say Tim got slower, Pau's not speeding things up.

Chinook wrote:

bondom34 wrote:Even if you want to say Tim got slower, Pau's not speeding things up.

He got slower than Pau, and that was bad since he couldn't score anymore. But even so, Tim was so bad that he was marginalized against GS since 2013. He was never part of the equation to beat the Warriors, which I'm not sure most people on this board appreciate.

bondom34 wrote:

Chinook wrote:

bondom34 wrote:Even if you want to say Tim got slower, Pau's not speeding things up.

He got slower than Pau, and that was bad since he couldn't score anymore. But even so, Tim was so bad that he was marginalized against GS since 2013. He was never part of the equation to beat the Warriors, which I'm not sure most people on this board appreciate.

Barely slower, and Pau is a lesser part of the equation against the Spurs. Parker's older and slower. Pau's old and slow still. Lee just stinks at defense, its Kevin Love X 1000. I have every expectation they're a top 3 seed, but they match up really poorly vs. GSW.

Slava wrote:

bondom34 wrote:

Chinook wrote:
He got slower than Pau, and that was bad since he couldn't score anymore. But even so, Tim was so bad that he was marginalized against GS since 2013. He was never part of the equation to beat the Warriors, which I'm not sure most people on this board appreciate.

Barely slower, and Pau is a lesser part of the equation against the Spurs. Parker's older and slower. Pau's old and slow still. Lee just stinks at defense, its Kevin Love X 1000. I have every expectation they're a top 3 seed, but they match up really poorly vs. GSW.

I fully expect their most used 5 man unit to be Mills - Ginobili - Green - Leonard - Aldridge. Parker and Gasol might start but not see more than 10-15 minutes on the floor together.

dbrandon wrote:Well aware of that. But even funneling guys to Pau, he's nowhere close to the stratosphere of defensive IQ that Duncan has. Pau's not exactly a speed demon.

Again, same thing as Pau. West may not be a good defender at this point in his career but he and Lee are worlds apart on that end. I like Dedmon. Diaw forgot how to shoot, so fair enough.

My caveat with that, particularly with Lee, is that you're going to have to get funky to not have spacing issues since his shot's basically disappeared. And West is actually a terrific midrange shooter, which opens the floor at least a little.

Younger, yes. Younger where it counts? I'm not convinced of that.

I don't know that anyone can pound the ball into the post hard enough to hurt the Warriors unless you're going with a 1-big lineup and speed at all other positions.

bondom34 wrote:

Chinook wrote:

bondom34 wrote:Even if you want to say Tim got slower, Pau's not speeding things up.

He got slower than Pau, and that was bad since he couldn't score anymore. But even so, Tim was so bad that he was marginalized against GS since 2013. He was never part of the equation to beat the Warriors, which I'm not sure most people on this board appreciate.

Barely slower, and Pau is a lesser part of the equation against the Spurs. Parker's older and slower. Pau's old and slow still. Lee just stinks at defense, its Kevin Love X 1000. I have every expectation they're a top 3 seed, but they match up really poorly vs. GSW.

Chinook wrote:

bondom34 wrote:

Chinook wrote:
He got slower than Pau, and that was bad since he couldn't score anymore. But even so, Tim was so bad that he was marginalized against GS since 2013. He was never part of the equation to beat the Warriors, which I'm not sure most people on this board appreciate.

Barely slower, and Pau is a lesser part of the equation against the Spurs. Parker's older and slower. Pau's old and slow still. Lee just stinks at defense, its Kevin Love X 1000. I have every expectation they're a top 3 seed, but they match up really poorly vs. GSW.

I think the key here is the bolded. He's not. He's obviously a huge part of the equation, hence them moving/letting go of rotation players and dropping a fair bit of coin on him. I don't see him getting fewer than 30mpg against them. The Warriors aren't going to go with small-ball against the Gasol/LMA unless Pau loses his ability to score. And if it's going to be a Curry, Klay, Durant, Green, Zaza lineup primarily, the Spurs can handle that. The biggest mismatches are Dray taking LMA off the dribble and Klay posting up Parker, neither of those being what the Warriors want to get out of their offense.

Texas Chuck wrote:

bondom34 wrote:Even if you want to say Tim got slower, Pau's not speeding things up.

I mean I get people are irrational when it comes to their own team, but anyone suggesting replacing Tim Duncan with Pau Gasol isn't a defensive issue is flat lying to themselves.

I mean the disrespect to Tim Duncan should shock me. But sadly here it doesn't.