Toronto early offseason in review (HW/bondom34/dbrandon/Slava)

[HartfordWhalers]

Toronto Offseason Review

HartfordWhalers Review

Key Losses:
Bismack Biyombo
Luis Scola

I really like Scola as a crafty vet. Biyombo is a loss, but they literally could not pay him.

Losses:
James Johnson
Jason Thompson

James Johnson is a weird enigma of a guy that keeps hanging around with deals that are above the guys hanging around, but below the guys who make MLE money. There aren't many of those types and they used to really old vets or really young guys, but he broke the mold. Does that matter? Not really, no.

Draft:
#9 Jakob Poeltl
#27 Pascal Siakam

Poetl was a solid pick that was loved by analytics and not hated by scouts. Siakam seems like a big reach, and a questionable selection. The top of the 2nd round had 3 bigs I would have gone for instead in Deyonta Davis, Ivica Zubac and Cheick Diallo. But more than that, I absolutely would have spun the wheel of luck on Skal Labissière. Maybe I'm wrong here, but definitely seems like the latest reach after Bruno.

Trades:

All quiet. No Ross trades.

Free Agency:
Masai Ujiri (President) contract extension
Jeff Weltman promoted to general manager
Dwane Casey (HC) extended 3/18m
DeMar DeRozan 5/$137.5m
Jared Sullinger 1/$5.6m
Jakob Poeltl rookie scale
Pascal Siakam rookie scale
Fred VanVleet 2 year min deal (50k gtd)
Jarrod Uthoff 2 year min deal (last year TO)
Yannick Moreira, Drew Crawford and E.J. Singler 1 year non gtd deals

Masai deserves this raise and helped Toronto to an excellent regular season record last year.
But you have to wonder what happens and if the transition is seamless, or if an organizational directional shift is going to take place. Trades have been where Masai has done his best, while the draft has been hit or miss especially lately.

Casey deserves this raise, and helped Toronto to an excellent regular season record last year.
I don't have any qualms here. He might not be the best coach, but you can easily do worse, and stability can be very important (outside of Indiana where it is a vice that needs correcting every 3 years).

DeRozan deserves this raise, and helped Toronto to an excellent regular season record last year.

Okay, this contract is really going to determine what people think of Toronto's offseason. Is he an

538 has him an average starter. RPM has him 24th among sg's. Worse than Monta and Roberson and Shump, but better than Garrett Temple. BPM has him as the 65th best guy in the league last year looking at 40 games and 20 mpg or more. So, a top notch 3rd best starter. A guy not particularly liked by advanced (and simple) on-offs, and a guy not liked by the models that look for things that in general lead to good on and offs. Paying a guy, even a guy in his prime, this much money to be a 3rd best starter is insane and the type of decision that hobbles a franchise for years.

On the other hand, he is a 2 time all star and was just 9th in the league in ppg. All while still young. That is exactly the type of player you want to have locked up regardless the cost for as many years as you can. Losing that sort of player to free agency is what causes up and coming teams to crater, or good teams to rebuild.

Which is it? I have too much respect for advanced stats to discount the first one, and raw usage along is not a virtue in my book. So, put me skeptical of Derozan as having a top 30 player impact in the league.

However, what could Toronto have done if not DeRozan? The answer is probably uglier than signing him, running back this roster and hoping for some more opportunistic trades and signings. So, I'm skipping the question of is this one of the worst contracts out there and just saying it made sense for Toronto. The same attitude Atlanta had about Bazemore, only bigger stakes. Did I kill Atlanta for that one? Probably. But they were due for a pull back, while Toronto needs to just hang on to a run of decent success here as a franchise goal, and maybe Derozan can be a top 45 guy if not top 30. That wouldn't really be overpaid then, you can have 2 max guys.

That Sullinger contract is genius, but in the short term sense as what does it gain them next year? That said, you take short term smart moves and just appreciate them once in a while, versus worrying about if they could have locked hm up, or Biyombo last year, for more time.

Fred VanVleet was really liked by a bunch of models. The stats types.

Current Depth Chart: (taken from bbinsiders)
PG: Kyle Lowry, Cory Joseph, Fred VanVleet, Delon Wright (injured)
SG: DeMar DeRozan, Norman Powell, Drew Crawford
SF: DeMarre Carroll, Terrence Ross, Bruno Caboclo, E.J. Singler
PF: Patrick Patterson, Jared Sullinger, Pascal Siakam, Jarrod Uthoff
C: Jonas Valanciunas, Jakob Poeltl, Lucas Nogueira, Yanick Moreira

Looks okay, but watch the pf battle, and the backup center battle which I think it is fine to hand to Poetl on day 1.

Needs:
Health. Derozan living up to that contract. Lowry is the engine that runs this ship,so any stumble from him is huge.

Additional Thoughts:
Valanciunas taking a step forward would be huge. Ross trades still make some sense, but probably after figuring out needs further.

At this point, Bruno is just 2 years away.

Projected Win/Loss: 47 - 35

Off-Season Grade: B+ The only thing that kept them from an A- was the Siakam pick. That or the weight of my conscious in giving an A- to a team that just overpaid Derozan by well over a factor of 2x depending on the model you use.

bondom34 Review

Key Losses:
Bismack Biyombo
Luis Scola

Losses:
James Johnson
Jason Thompson

Draft:
#9 Jakob Poeltl
#27 Pascal Siakam

Trades:

Free Agency:
Masai Ujiri (President) contract extension
Jeff Weltman promoted to general manager
Dwane Casey (HC) extended 3/18m
DeMar DeRozan 5/$137.5m
Jared Sullinger 1/$5.6m
Jakob Poeltl rookie scale
Pascal Siakam rookie scale
Fred VanVleet 2 year min deal (50k gtd)
Jarrod Uthoff 2 year min deal (last year TO)
Yannick Moreira, Drew Crawford and E.J. Singler 1 year non gtd deals


The Derozan deal was/is too much money but someone was giving him it and they need him, so I honestly don't have a real issue with it. He wants to be there, they want him. Not a fan of him as a player, but he's one of the best on the team. Sullinger was a great deal in my opinion, and they lost Biz but I honestly don't think its a huge loss. The Casey extension was well deserved.

Current Depth Chart: (taken from bbinsiders)
PG: Kyle Lowry, Cory Joseph, Fred VanVleet, Delon Wright (injured)
SG: DeMar DeRozan, Norman Powell, Drew Crawford
SF: DeMarre Carroll, Terrence Ross, Bruno Caboclo, E.J. Singler
PF: Patrick Patterson, Jared Sullinger, Pascal Siakam, Jarrod Uthoff
C: Jonas Valanciunas, Jakob Poeltl, Lucas Nogueira, Yanick Moreira

Needs:
Maybe an upgrade at PF, otherwise health for Carroll and hoping the team gels a bit more. Also hopefully Poeltl is ready to roll early on.

Additional Thoughts:
Mostly a quiet offseason, no huge losses to me, no huge additions. The Derozan deal I talked about above, a necessary evil to me. I expect they're pretty similar to last season quality wise, but possibly a few less wins.

Projected Win/Loss: 53-29

Off-Season Grade: B-

dbrandon Review

Key Losses:
Bismack Biyombo

Bismack will be missed. He got to the point where he was passable on the offensive end, and he's always been a defensive difference maker. Was a big part of their bench being as good as it was.

Losses:
James Johnson
Jason Thompson
Luis Scola

Johnson and Scola will be missed a little more. I like Johnson, though there's a reason he's a journeyman. Scola's on his last legs but brings a nice vet savvy.

Draft:
#9 Jakob Poeltl
#27 Pascal Siakam

I like Poeltl as probably being BPA, though the fact that he got his tail kicked by Sabonis worries me a little. And going for a center here seems a bit odd for fit.

Trades:

Free Agency:
Masai Ujiri (President) contract extension
Jeff Weltman promoted to general manager
Dwane Casey (HC) extended 3/18m
DeMar DeRozan 5/$137.5m
Jared Sullinger 1/$5.6m
Jakob Poeltl rookie scale
Pascal Siakam rookie scale
Fred VanVleet 2 year min deal (50k gtd)
Jarrod Uthoff 2 year min deal (last year TO)
Yannick Moreira, Drew Crawford and E.J. Singler 1 year non gtd deals

Keeping Masai is a no-brainer.

Casey's a bit more iffy, but he's a pretty solid defensive coach and I didn't see too many better guys available. I'm fine with it.

Now DDR...that's an interesting one. I think they probably had to max him, just because of they're not getting someone in free agency who'll replace his production. But IDK if he'll be worth max money. HW's probably going to touch on some of the reasons in his review, so I'm not going to rehash it.

Sully's an excellent signing, so long as he can get his weight down.

Current Depth Chart: (taken from bbinsiders)
PG: Kyle Lowry, Cory Joseph, Fred VanVleet, Delon Wright (injured)
SG: DeMar DeRozan, Norman Powell, Drew Crawford
SF: DeMarre Carroll, Terrence Ross, Bruno Caboclo, E.J. Singler
PF: Patrick Patterson, Jared Sullinger, Pascal Siakam, Jarrod Uthoff
C: Jonas Valanciunas, Jakob Poeltl, Lucas Nogueira, Yanick Moreira

This is a solid team.

I don't think it's better than last year, unless you're counting Demarre being healthy. But it's solid.

I don't know that the Raps really had any options this year to make the team better outside of an Ibaka trade—if there was a middle ground they could have found with Presti (Presti's asking price was reportedly Joseph/Powell/Patterson/9, which is probably a little high).

Needs:
Demarre to stay healthy. Could definitely use someone better at PF—2Pat is in that awkward "probably too good to be a bench player but not quite good enough to be a no-questions starter" range.

If Sully can cut weight, he's a great candidate to stay at PF for them going forward. Maybe he and Lowry can share weight loss tips.

Is Powell for real? Needs to prove last year wasn't a flash in the pan.

Poeltl needs to hit the ground running, cause if the Weeknd has to play significant minutes they might be in trouble.

Additional Thoughts:
This team really needs Lowry to stay at the top of his game. The team's offense flows from him, and he's often the most efficient option. He was terrific last year. If he falls off at all, I expect the team as a whole to take a step back.

Projected Win/Loss: 52 wins

Off-Season Grade:C+ I don't think they made any massive missteps, but I don't think they made any great moves. It's an average offseason, though I'll add a little bit for getting Sully.

Slava Review

Key Losses:
Bismack Biyombo

Biyombo's departure could create a void in defensive match ups but he was also a drag on offense and there was no way they were going to offer the kind of money he got from Orlando so letting him go is no surprise.

Losses:
Luis Scola
James Johnson
Jason Thompson

Scola is pretty much done in NBA play so not a major loss here while Jason Thompson with his weird career trajectory hasn't been able to find a niche for himself anywhere. James Johnson and his constant feuding with Casey was another predictable departure in free agency to create an interesting combination of people in Miami.

Draft:
#9 Jakob Poeltl
#27 Pascal Siakam

Poeltl is likely the BPA here so not a lot of qualms about picking him, even if he might be the headliner piece going out in a trade to bring an upgrade at the 4 or a starting 3 if the long term plan is to have Carroll playing full time stretch 4.

Siakam is a potentially interesting prospect as despite being older than your typical rookie, he picked up the game late and has excellent athleticism combined with a high motor to at least be a realiable back up big. He still has ways to go in terms of developing on individual offense or showing if he can develop a jump shot but he is a good player to add into the mix of candidates the Raptors currently have auditioning for PF minutes.

Free Agency:
Masai Ujiri (President) contract extension
Jeff Weltman promoted to general manager
Dwane Casey (HC) extended 3/18m
DeMar DeRozan 5/$137.5m
Jared Sullinger 1/$5.6m
Jakob Poeltl rookie scale
Pascal Siakam rookie scale
Fred VanVleet 2 year min deal (50k gtd)
Jarrod Uthoff 2 year min deal (last year TO)
Yannick Moreira, Drew Crawford and E.J. Singler 1 year non gtd deals

Love the Masai Ujiri extension, this has been the most consistently coherent front office the Raptors have had in years and it pays to keep the continuity by extending him along with Casey.

I'm not the biggest Derozan fan and even though he has shown improvement in shooting efficiency, he is still a very poor defender and the Raptors have still been much better with him off the floor.

2015-16 Regular Season:

Raptors Net Rating: 4.9

Raptors Net Rating with Derozan ON: 3.3
Raptors Net Rating with Derozan OFF: 8.9

Raptors Net Rating with Lowry ON: 7.1
Raptors Net Rating with Lowry OFF: -0.9

Raptors Net Rating with Lowry ON/Demar OFF: 13.7
Raptors Net Rating with Demar ON/Lowry OFF: -1.9

All numbers from nbawowy.com

One could argue that he is essentially piggy-backing on Lowry to his pay day. Considering the limited options the Raptors have in terms of taking the next step to field a genuinely competitive team against Cleveland, would they not be better served by making a competing bid of 4 years and $80-90 million at someone like Bazemore, who is a better shooter from 3 and a consistently reliable defender? I certainly think they should have explored their options before committing to Derozan to the tune of $29M a year for the next 5 years as I really don't think this is a very tradable contract even if Derozan is technically entering his prime.

Sullinger is a decent buy low move but considering the back up center is a rookie, they could have gone after Ezeli with the kind of 2 year deal the Blazers offered and found themselves a decent Biyombo replacement.

Current Depth Chart: (taken from bbinsiders)
PG: Kyle Lowry, Cory Joseph, Fred VanVleet, Delon Wright (injured)
SG: DeMar DeRozan, Norman Powell, Drew Crawford
SF: DeMarre Carroll, Terrence Ross, Bruno Caboclo, E.J. Singler
PF: Patrick Patterson, Jared Sullinger, Pascal Siakam, Jarrod Uthoff
C: Jonas Valanciunas, Jakob Poeltl, Lucas Nogueira, Yanick Moreira

The back up center spot is pretty weak if Poeltl is not ready to contribute, otherwise this is a balanced roster.

Needs:
1. Good health for Lowry and Carroll.
2. Boston not consolidating their assets into a superstar trade.
3. Some misfortune for Cleveland

Additional Thoughts:
This is a team that is on the precipice of some major luxury tax issues. They currently have $105M in guaranteed money for 2017-18 and this is without factoring in the kind of mega max contract Lowry is likely to receive as he opts out of his player option while their current PFs, Patterson and Sullinger hit free agency as well.

For the current season, their luck essentially relies on the Cavs suffering some misfortune having gutted their depth owing to luxury tax issues and Boston not finding the legit superstar trade they have been preparing towards for a while. If both of those things happen, Raptors won't even have the token ECF appearance that this roster needs to look good.

Projected Win/Loss: 54-28

Off-Season Grade: C

[jonny three time]

Fantastic review by Slava, right on the money with every point.

Hartfordwhalers - how can you give the team a B+ offseason, while also saying they win 9 less games? That doesn't really add up. The loss of Biyombo shouldn't equal 9 more losses, especially with Carroll likely being healthy and the addition of Sully.

[loserX]

Good reviews, as always.

Best move: locking down the front office. This team is currently the best it's ever been and still rising...Casey in particular has his detractors but now is not the time to start screwing with the continuity at the top of the ladder.

Worst move: the Siakam pick. I wish the Raps had traded both picks for more veteran help, but Ujiri had that as his stated goal and obviously couldn't find a deal that worked. Nevertheless, picking Siakam still feels like trying to prove you're the smartest guy in the room and you know something that no one else does.

As for DeRozan, he got a boatload of money. And yes, he's got his warts too. But as I mentioned above, the Raps have something really good going, and DD is a part of it...he's one of the top three players on the team. And with the Raps cresting, you don't let that go unless you can replace him with a *better* option. Wade wasn't coming. It's clear Batum wanted to stay in Charlotte or he could have gotten a max deal elsewhere. That means the Raps got the best SG realistically available to them, so even though it was expensive I count this as a good move. (Also, we Canadians know that one of the top narratives in sports up here is the bromance between Lowry and DD. If DD was allowed to leave, odds are good that Lowry would have followed out the door. Consider this signing a heavy investment.)

The team had a vision for the offseason: keep the core together, on the court and in the FO. They mostly did that; losing Biz was a foregone conclusion (and I wouldn't have maxed him even if I could). Getting Sullinger should help, even if it's just for a year. I would have liked another veteran backup C so I can't grade them perfect, but I think a B+ is fair.

[Texas Chuck]

The DD contract reminds me so much of when my Mavs maxed out Mike Finley. If you just looked at box scores, both players were very productive and put up big numbers and both players capable of the highlight play. But you also kinda knew guy wasn't really as good as his raw numbers suggested and you knew you would probably regret the contract down the road, but you really didn't have any other options. Tho in Dallas it turned out the Finley contract probably weighed on Cuban's mind when it came time for Nash. Hope that doesn't happen with Lowry next year.

Definitely still feel like they should have taken their assets and gone for another difference making veteran--preferably a forward or defensive center.

[slothrop8]

The DeRozan deal is definitely tradeable - all kinds of front offices around the league with no idea what they are doing still - not an issue to move a guy with gaudy PPG numbers and All-Star and Olympian cred. The harsh truth is there is basically no evidence to support the notion that having Demar DeRozan on the floor is good for your basketball team - and mountains of evidence to suggest that it is bad for your basketball team. That being said - DeRozan's presence was needed to ensure Lowry resigns - and he still has value as an asset himself - so resigning him was the right move - provided Toronto flips him for value after Lowry is resigned. If he stays the whole 5 years - he's an albatross - but I'm cautiously optimistic that won't be case.

Biyombo coming back at 5m would have been fine - at 17m it's an albatross waiting to happen. Just no offensive ability of any kind - needs a very specific offensive context around him not to completely torpedo a team on that end. Orlando will end up regretting that move in my opinion.

Sullinger would be fine as a backup 5 - but as a low efficiency, chucktastic starting 4 he has the potential to be a disaster. He takes tons of bad shots - something this offense needs less of, not more, and it's an open question if he can guard anyone at the 4. Either way, it's a 1 year commitment - and neither knocks the Raps totally out of the playoff picture nor was there anything they could do instead that could have gotten them to the Finals - so while it's a bad move for the present - it ultimately doesn't matter.

Poeltl as BPA was fine. Unlikely there's a long term future for him in Toronto unless they move JV in a bigger deal. Most likely Poeltl gets rolled up in a package with Ross near term - or with DerRozan and/or Lowry long term when Toronto is ready to make a move and try to build a genuine contender.

Siakam is interesting. Unheralded pick - but a guy whose skills - rebounding, running the floor, hustle - are likely to translate to the NBA.

Overall, kept building the asset base - continued to assemble pieces to be a pretty good team with Conference Finals upside in the short term, while having a variety of pieces that can be moved for value long term. Realistically, not much else you can hope for from an Eastern team while LeBron continues to run amok. Play some winning basketball, sell some tickets, build a winning culture and a positive franchise reputation - and be ready to strike when LeBron's decline phase get underway. Toronto has done that - hard to be upset as a Raptors fan about the state of the franchise. Nothing this offseason moves the needle much one direction or another for this coming year - but we're playing the long game anyway.

[HartfordWhalers]

Fantastic review by Slava, right on the money with every point.

Hartfordwhalers - how can you give the team a B+ offseason, while also saying they win 9 less games? That doesn't really add up. The loss of Biyombo shouldn't equal 9 more losses, especially with Carroll likely being healthy and the addition of Sully.

In terms of the win prediction, I think they outperformed last year -- by SRS they were just a 53 win team for instance -- and their schedule looks a lot tougher than it was last year.

I also expect a pull back year from Lowry, as father time is undefeated. On average win shares start declining at 28 for instance:

(http://www.phillymag.com/news/2016/06/03/dissecting-the-jeff-teague-for-nerlens-noel-rumor/)

The switch from Biyombo and Scola to Poetl and Carroll/Sullinger isn't as clear cut of an upgrade to me, as it will really depend on Poetl.

That said, I have Toronto on my fidget their win list to look at adding 1-2 wins when I do my final balance to get to 1230. But yeah, either way I am taking the under on Toronto winning 50 even.


As for my grade, I grade on how well a team manages the situation they are in. Sometimes managing the situation well results in more losses, either as a step back intentionally or a you just couldn't do better than that with the hand you were dealt. I think Toronto managed to keep a good team that will make it into the 2nd round of the playoffs together as best they could, and had no other logical direction. But it doesn't mean I think they will be a 55 win team again.

[Statlanta]

I think this offseason was good for the fans and players with continuity but if their stars in JV, DD and KL continue with not showing up(injuries/production) in the playoffs it won't give them any future hope of getting more success. When you're this successful as an organization without a lot of prior success some may think it is alright to continue the greatness since you've never come here before. This offseason seems like maintaining the good times since many Eastern teams have taken risks and only one(Boston) has tried taking an big offseason step to challenge the top 2 teams.

[CrookedJ]

The Derozan contract is a real strange place to be. We paid him a ton, we know he's flawed but there were so few alternatives.

Its hard to see the numbers now that everything has been updated, but my recollection is that if we renounced everyone including Derozan we could have had about $18 million in space. We could not have got Sullinger, but could have used the room exception ( 2.89 Million)

Keeping in mind that these are hindsight deals, and the team wouldn't have known what the money would buy them.

Are we better with Derozan + Sullinger or Ryan Anderson + Dion Waters?

The 18 million in cap space could not have replaced his production, nor would it make sense to spend that money on Biyombo who is stuck as the backup centre, there is no way that Biyombo and JV could play together.

The rating could be based on :

1) how well they did in the summer given their situation
or
2) how much this team is better than last season

On managing their situation as it was, I gave them a B+
If you want pure difference in roster, they get a C

[Golabki]

Derozan was overpaid, but they had to do it and you can still hope they swindle someone in a DD trade in the next couple years.

Grabbing Sully for nothing to fill a huge need is a great move.

I liked the draft.

I gave it a B.

[winter_mute_13]

That Derozan deal makes me queasy when I think of it. But, as others have said, if TOR wasn't paying him the money then someone else will. It's not like the Raptors can go out and sign someone better with the money anyway.

I don't get the hate on the Siakam pick. It's not a particularly deep draft, and the guy looks like he has the right tools at least. I think he'll be fine.

Biyombo is an underrated loss IMO, but OTOH he really got paid and I don't think TOR should have matched even if they could. Sully should fill in at backup C, though he's a very different type of player from Biyombo. Maybe they're counting on Poeltl for some minutes too.

I don't love their offseason but they did what they had to, and I think they're still one of the top teams in the East. A solid B for me.

[Mystical Apples]

Toronto's offseason was extreme love-hate. I have them as the NBA's deepest team with quality everywhere but short on elite talent after Lowry.

Absolutely loved their draft and UDFA acquistions. Poeltl probably should've gone 3-4 picks higher and Siakam was justified up to 23-25. Uthoff slipped in part from his stash refusal and I had Van Vleet as a solid mid to late 2nd.

I also like the added C depth with Sullinger @ $5.7m compared to the overrated Biyombo.

Real talk though....I hate Deronzan's contract and would've let him walk. I get their rationale but it doesn't wash. Without DeRozan's contract Toronto deserved an A. Unfortunately it's a really, really bad contract and could haunt them for years. C-.

[Andre Roberstan]

Toronto's offseason was extreme love-hate. I have them as the NBA's deepest team with quality everywhere but short on elite talent after Lowry.

Utah? There's not a single guy on that team with a VORP below average.

[Splinter]

Fantastic review by Slava, right on the money with every point.

Hartfordwhalers - how can you give the team a B+ offseason, while also saying they win 9 less games? That doesn't really add up. The loss of Biyombo shouldn't equal 9 more losses, especially with Carroll likely being healthy and the addition of Sully.

Except for the fact that Slava is exaggerating on the Derozan contract saying it's an average of 29 per. he's getting;
26.4/27.7/27.7/27.7/27.7
so it's max in year 1 with a max raise to year 2, then it flatlines.

[Mystical Apples]

Toronto's offseason was extreme love-hate. I have them as the NBA's deepest team with quality everywhere but short on elite talent after Lowry.

Utah? There's not a single guy on that team with a VORP below average.

Yeah theres definitely a case for Utah. I considered plausible rotations and position overlap without going lower than 12. Both are deep but I have less confidence in Utah realizing their overlapping 4/5 production. JV and Sullinger are hardly ideal but I like Pattterson tying various combinations together.

It's also unclear which Diaw and JJ walks through that door. That said, I prefer Utah's possible playoff rotation by a considerable margin.

[Slava]

Fantastic review by Slava, right on the money with every point.

Hartfordwhalers - how can you give the team a B+ offseason, while also saying they win 9 less games? That doesn't really add up. The loss of Biyombo shouldn't equal 9 more losses, especially with Carroll likely being healthy and the addition of Sully.

Except for the fact that Slava is exaggerating on the Derozan contract saying it's an average of 29 per. he's getting;
26.4/27.7/27.7/27.7/27.7
so it's max in year 1 with a max raise to year 2, then it flatlines.

You're right, I had the initial reports of $145 mil in mind when I wrote that sentence. A $1.3 mil a year discount doesn't change my opinion of the deal however.

[Splinter]

Fantastic review by Slava, right on the money with every point.

Hartfordwhalers - how can you give the team a B+ offseason, while also saying they win 9 less games? That doesn't really add up. The loss of Biyombo shouldn't equal 9 more losses, especially with Carroll likely being healthy and the addition of Sully.

Except for the fact that Slava is exaggerating on the Derozan contract saying it's an average of 29 per. he's getting;
26.4/27.7/27.7/27.7/27.7
so it's max in year 1 with a max raise to year 2, then it flatlines.

You're right, I had the initial reports of $145 mil in mind when I wrote that sentence. A $1.3 mil a year discount doesn't change my opinion of the deal however.

yeah not the biggest fan of the deal either but like others have stated, it was necessary. happy that Masai didn't give him max raises throughout though

[giberish]

The offseason was baically the DeRozan contract - as everyone says it's an overpay but the did lack options - and replacing their backup PF/C options - which is iffy now at PF as Sully's mostly a center unless he loses weight. Though Carroll staying healthy would largely cover that.

The main reason why they might drop next year is Lowry. He was IMO about the 8th best player in the league last year. That's a huge jump from any previous season at an age where guys often start to decline. If he just reverts to standard Kyle Lowry from before this year Toronto drops 5+ games.

[Woody Allen]

Derozan contract was a big mistake. Given that it's a given that Lowry will receive his max as well, the team has no flexibility, growth or maneuvering ability left for the foreseeable future. Not built to contend and locked into mediocrity.

[jonny three time]

Fantastic review by Slava, right on the money with every point.

Hartfordwhalers - how can you give the team a B+ offseason, while also saying they win 9 less games? That doesn't really add up. The loss of Biyombo shouldn't equal 9 more losses, especially with Carroll likely being healthy and the addition of Sully.

In terms of the win prediction, I think they outperformed last year -- by SRS they were just a 53 win team for instance -- and their schedule looks a lot tougher than it was last year.

I also expect a pull back year from Lowry, as father time is undefeated. On average win shares start declining at 28 for instance:

(http://www.phillymag.com/news/2016/06/03/dissecting-the-jeff-teague-for-nerlens-noel-rumor/)

The switch from Biyombo and Scola to Poetl and Carroll/Sullinger isn't as clear cut of an upgrade to me, as it will really depend on Poetl.

That said, I have Toronto on my fidget their win list to look at adding 1-2 wins when I do my final balance to get to 1230. But yeah, either way I am taking the under on Toronto winning 50 even.


As for my grade, I grade on how well a team manages the situation they are in. Sometimes managing the situation well results in more losses, either as a step back intentionally or a you just couldn't do better than that with the hand you were dealt. I think Toronto managed to keep a good team that will make it into the 2nd round of the playoffs together as best they could, and had no other logical direction. But it doesn't mean I think they will be a 55 win team again.

Fair enough. I still think that a 9 win drop in the East is a little high regardless of what the advanced stats say. If anything they say the opposite to me. If a team won more games than they should have in the regular season, combined with winning two tight playoff series that went 7 games, as well as taking two games from a super-team that cruised past the rest of the East, what that says to me is they have a knack for winning. There's an intrinsic value to that as these are human beings playing the game afterall. If you put too much faith in advanced stats you won't see the grit factor in teams that don't bother padding stats, or pouring it on against lesser opponents. While at the same time you're more likely to overvalue teams that put up glorious stats against garbage teams and have a knack for losing against teams of a similar talent caliber. You've left no room for chemistry, experience and personalities as competitors.

Your point about Lowry would hold more weight to it if he wasn't in a contract year. I'd be shocked if he declined significantly this season. He's almost certain to decline in 17/18 though. His game doesn't rely on pure explosiveness all that much and as long as he stays in shape, he'll be fine for one more year barring an unforeseen injury.

[jonny three time]

Not to mention, on that chart win shares seems pretty level from age 28-32. It declines up to 28, then levels off, then declines past 32. Lowry won't turn 31 until late March, so he shouldn't hit that 33/34 decline for this season anyway.