The 2017 Free Agency Prediction Contest

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The 2017 Free Agency Prediction Contest 

Post#1 » by caliban » Sat Jun 17, 2017 7:52 pm

The Trades & Transactions Boards Free Agency Contest

Intro:
Spoiler:
The FA-contest strikes right into the heart of one of this board’s main discussion points: How much is a player worth on the market? While we all have our opinions on player valuation (often backed with too many hours watching basketball, good and bad use of statistics & and own personal biases), much? of that won’t matter in the unforeseeable territory that is free agency.

Instead of using your own reason (for better or worse) you have to put yourself in the chair of the decision makers and ask yourself what need the specific teams have, who’d they’re likely to target and how much they are willing to pay for who they want. It's also probable that you'll benefit from awareness of the supply at a certain position or of a skillset: Who will hit the jackpot and will any player fall through the cracks due to a saturated market? Pure guessing might also be a valid strategy towards the bragging rights.

Rules:

1) Guess how much said player will get per year
2) Guess which team said player will end up on (the match if RFA)
3) Get your submission in 24h before the start of free agency
4) Don't forget to have fun

Scoring:

3 point for guessing 1M within the result
2 point for guessing 2M within the result
1 point for guessing 3M within the result
2 point for guessing the right Team

The selected players, 30 in total:

Spoiler:
RFA's

Otto Porter (Team)($)
Mason Plumlee (Team)($)
JaMychal Green (Team)($)
Joe Ingles (Team)($)
Nerlens Noel (Team)($)
Tim Hardaway (Team)($)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Team)($)
Andre Roberson (Team)($)
Kelly Olynyk (Team)($)
Nikola Mirotic (Team)($)
Tony Snell (Team)($)

Free agent PG's:

Kyle Lowry (Team)($)
Jeff Teague (Team)($)
George Hill (Team)($)
Jrue Holiday (Team)($)
Derrick Rose (Team)($)
Patty Mills (Team)($)
Darren Collison (Team)($)

Others:

Gordon Hayward (Team)($)
Blake Griffin (Team)($)
Danilo Gallinari (Team)($)
Andre Iguodala (Team)($)
Paul Millsap (Team)($)
Dewayne Dedmon (Team)($)
Serge Ibaka (Team)($)
James Johnson (Team)($)
J.J. Redick (Team)($)
Taj Gibson (Team)($)
C.J. Miles (Team)($)
Patrick Patterson (Team)($)


Here’s the chart which will be updated as the hats gets thrown into the ring and deals tick in.
Image

Good luck everyone! Image personally I'll have to mull this over a couple of days.
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Re: It's Game Time! - The 2017 Free Agency Contest 

Post#2 » by Texas Chuck » Sat Jun 24, 2017 4:34 am

Question on RFA's. Are we predicting offer sheets or matches? Like if the Nets sign KCP to a max deal that Detroit matches is Detroit or Brooklyn the "correct" answer?

also I'm going to be terrible at this
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Re: It's Game Time! - The 2017 Free Agency Contest 

Post#3 » by caliban » Sat Jun 24, 2017 6:26 am

Texas Chuck wrote:Question on RFA's. Are we predicting offer sheets or matches? Like if the Nets sign KCP to a max deal that Detroit matches is Detroit or Brooklyn the "correct" answer?

also I'm going to be terrible at this

Good question, we'll go with Detroit (the match) in your example for this year.

Yea, after the cap correction and Butler trade, It feels harder than ever to predict what's up. Glad op does mention pure guessing as a valid strategi for success :lol:
(should note that the bookies behind the scenes has you as a top candidate to win)
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Re: It's Game Time! - The 2017 Free Agency Contest 

Post#4 » by HartfordWhalers » Sat Jun 24, 2017 3:42 pm

Okay, I'm getting a partial entry in to get this started. Its a big fun task....


Here are the selected players:

RFA's

Otto Porter -- Max (25m) Washington
Mason Plumlee 17m Denver (and this is a bad deal)
JaMychal Green 14m Memphis
Joe Ingles -- 11m Utah (MLE money)
Nerlens Noel 22m Dallas (I miss him)
Tim Hardaway -- 12m Nets (I must hate the Nets?)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 25m Detroit (and this is a bad deal)
Andre Roberson -- 10m OKC (When he gets 15m, I blame a lack of common sense)
Shabazz Muhammed -- 12m Nets
Kelly Olynyk -- 9m LAC
Ben McLemore -- 8m Dallas (If anyone can fix him, Rick Carlisle is on the short list)
Nikola Mirotic -- 8m Chicago
Tony Snell -- 14m Milwaukee
Bojan Bogdanovic -- 10m Atlanta
Alex Len -- 6.5m Nets
Free agent PG's:

Kyle Lowry -- 30m Toronto
Jeff Teague -- 18m NYK
George Hill -- 22.5 Sac
Jrue Holiday -- 27m NOP
Derrick Rose -- 6m ChA
Patty Mills -- 14m NYK
Darren Collison -- 9m Utah

Others:

Gordon Hayward -- Max Boston
Blake Griffin -- Max Miami
Danilo Gallinari -- Sac 17.5m
Andre Iguodala -- GS 12m
Paul Millsap -- Denver 33m
Dewayne Dedmon - 10m Phx
Serge Ibaka - Tor 25m
James Johnson -- 8m Indy
J.J. Redick -- Sixers 18m =(
Taj Gibson -- ATlanta 11m
C.J. Miles -- NOP 9m (full mle)
Kyle Korver -- 6m SAS
P.J. Tucker -- 10m LAC
Patrick Patterson -- 12m Minn
[/quote]
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Re: It's Game Time! - The 2017 Free Agency Contest 

Post#5 » by caliban » Sat Jun 24, 2017 7:10 pm

HartfordWhalers wrote:Okay, I'm getting a partial entry in to get this started. Its a big fun task....


Here are the selected players:

RFA's

Otto Porter -- Max (25m) Washington
Mason Plumlee 17m Denver (and this is a bad deal)
JaMychal Green 14m Nets (because someone needs to switch teams?)
Joe Ingles -- 9m Utah (MLE money)
Nerlens Noel 22m Dallas (I miss him)
Tim Hardaway (Meh, who cares?)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 25m Detroit (and this is a bad deal)
Andre Roberson -- 10m OKC (When he gets 15m, I blame a lack of common sense)
Shabazz Muhammed -- 12m Nets
Kelly Olynyk (No idea)
Ben McLemore -- 8m Dallas (If anyone can fix him, Rick Carlisle is on the short list)
Nikola Mirotic -- (Someone will get a steal here)
Tony Snell -- 14m Milwaukee
Bojan Bogdanovic -- No idea
Alex Len -- No idea
Spoiler:

Free agent PG's:

Kyle Lowry -- 30m Toronto
Jeff Teague
George Hill
Jrue Holiday -- 27m NOP
Derrick Rose
Patty Mills
Darren Collison

Others:

Gordon Hayward
Blake Griffin
Danilo Gallinari
Andre Iguodala
Paul Millsap
Dewayne Dedmon
Serge Ibaka
James Johnson
J.J. Redick
Taj Gibson
C.J. Miles
Kyle Korver
P.J. Tucker
Patrick Patterson/quote]

Nice, just started to ponder up on some names here myself. Post the rest when you got them and for anyone else as well; changing your entry if trades, significant rumors or just change of mind do occur is well within the rules. No problem for me to make an update up until the deadline.
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Re: It's Game Time! - The 2017 Free Agency Contest 

Post#6 » by gom » Sat Jun 24, 2017 9:42 pm

You should add Dion Waiters. He's a free agent too.
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Re: It's Game Time! - The 2017 Free Agency Contest 

Post#7 » by caliban » Sun Jun 25, 2017 6:33 am

gom wrote:You should add Dion Waiters. He's a free agent too.


Certainly an interesting name, especially to you and me but we had to shorten the list quite a bit and unfortunately some interesting names didn't make it this time.

I hope to see an entry from you gom, think you'd be good at this.
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Re: It's Game Time! - The 2017 Free Agency Contest 

Post#8 » by gom » Sun Jun 25, 2017 7:27 am

caliban wrote:
gom wrote:You should add Dion Waiters. He's a free agent too.


Certainly an interesting name, especially to you and me but we had to shorten the list quite a bit and unfortunately some interesting names didn't make it this time.

I hope to see an entry from you gom, think you'd be good at this.


Thanks, but you guys are way ahead of me right now. I'm still going over the CBA changes. I will cheer for you!
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Re: It's Game Time! - The 2017 Free Agency Contest 

Post#9 » by caliban » Sun Jun 25, 2017 7:02 pm

Here's my entry; subject to change some I'm sure. Generally I think I ended up way to low.

RFA's

Otto Porter (WAS)(25)
Mason Plumlee (DEN)(10)
JaMychal Green (MEM)(13,5)
Joe Ingles (UTA)(11)
Nerlens Noel (DAL)(18,5)
Tim Hardaway (BRO)(14)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (DET)(24)
Andre Roberson (OKC)(13,5)
Kelly Olynyk (PHX)(12)
Nikola Mirotic (CHI)(12,5)
Tony Snell (MIL)(10,5)

Free agent PG's:

Kyle Lowry (TOR)(25)
Jeff Teague (IND)(18)
George Hill (DEN)(17)
Jrue Holiday (NOP)(25)
Derrick Rose (NYK)(11)
Patty Mills (SAS)(10)
Darren Collison (SAC)(10)

Others:

Gordon Hayward (BOS)(30)
Blake Griffin (LAC)(32)
Danilo Gallinari (BRO)(18,5)
Andre Iguodala (GSW)(15)
Paul Millsap (HOU)(22)
Dewayne Dedmon (SAS)(10)
Serge Ibaka (TOR)(19)
James Johnson (MIA)(11)
J.J. Redick (PHI)(16)
Taj Gibson (MIN)(10)
C.J. Miles (LAC)(10)
Patrick Patterson (HOU)(11)

OP updated. Scaled it down to 30 names. No need to start sweating over the keyboard.

gom wrote:Thanks, but you guys are way ahead of me right now. I'm still going over the CBA changes.
Pretty sure we're mostly throwing darts here, at least I am Image
Spoiler:
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Re: 4 days to go - The 2017 Free Agency Prediction Contest 

Post#10 » by Trader_Joe » Mon Jun 26, 2017 6:58 pm

Early guesses...

RFA's
Otto Porter - Max - Wiz
Mason Plumlee - 12m - Nugs
JaMychal Green 16m - Grizz
Joe Ingles - 14m - Jazz
Nerlens Noel - 22m - Mavs
Tim Hardaway - 13m Hawks
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - 22m - Pistons
Andre Roberson - 12m - Thunder
Kelly Olynyk - 13m - Nets
Nikola Mirotic - 12m - Hawks
Tony Snell - 13m - Bucks

Free agent PG's:
Kyle Lowry - 30m Raps
Jeff Teague - 22m - Pacers
George Hill - 22m Jazz
Jrue Holiday - 25m Pelicans
Derrick Rose - 12m Knicks
Patty Mills - 18m Spurs
Darren Collison - 12m Kings

Others:
Gordon Hayward - Max - Celtics
Blake Griffin - Max - Clips
Danilo Gallinari - 17m - Wolves
Andre Iguodala - 17m - Heat
Paul Millsap - 28m - Rox
Dewayne Dedmon - 10m - Spurs
Serge Ibaka - 25m - Raps
James Johnson - 12m - Heat
J.J. Redick - 15m - Nets
Taj Gibson - 13m - Thunder
C.J. Miles - 10m - Pacers
Patrick Patterson -
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Re: 2 days to go - The 2017 Free Agency Prediction Contest 

Post#11 » by Mich3006 » Wed Jun 28, 2017 6:53 am

Early entry (maybe there´s an update tomorrow...)

Update 1.0

RFA's
Otto Porter - Max - Wizards
Mason Plumlee - 12 - Nuggets
JaMychal Green - 16 - Grizzlies
Joe Ingles - 14 - Jazz
Nerlens Noel - 25 - Mavs
Tim Hardaway - 12- Hawks
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - 22 - Pistons
Andre Roberson - 17 - Thunder
Kelly Olynyk - 12 - Hawks
Nikola Mirotic - 14 - Nets
Tony Snell - 15 - Bucks

Free agent PG's:
Kyle Lowry - Max - Raptors
Jeff Teague - 21 - Pacers
George Hill - 18 - Spurs
Jrue Holiday - 24 - Pelicans
Derrick Rose - 14 - Timberwolves
Patty Mills - 14 - Clippers
Darren Collison - 16 - Kings

Others:
Gordon Hayward - Max - Celtics
Blake Griffin - Max - Clippers
Danilo Gallinari - 24 - Heat
Andre Iguodala - 17 - Magic
Paul Millsap - 33 - Nuggets
Dewayne Dedmon - 16 - Nets
Serge Ibaka - 22 - Raptors
James Johnson - 15 - Heat
J.J. Redick - 16 - Sixers
Taj Gibson - 14 - Sixers
C.J. Miles - MLE - Clippers
Patrick Patterson - 10 - Pelicans
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Re: 2 days to go - The 2017 Free Agency Prediction Contest 

Post#12 » by caliban » Wed Jun 28, 2017 7:47 am

Ayatollah wrote:Early entry (maybe there´s an update tomorrow...)

Spoiler:
RFA's
Otto Porter - Max - Wizards
Mason Plumlee - 12 - Nuggets
JaMychal Green - 16 - Grizzlies
Joe Ingles - 14 - Jazz
Nerlens Noel - 25 - Mavs
Tim Hardaway - 12- Hawks
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - 25 - Pistons
Andre Roberson - 17 - Thunder
Kelly Olynyk - 12 - Hawks
Nikola Mirotic - 14 - Nets
Tony Snell - 15 - Bucks

Free agent PG's:
Kyle Lowry - Max - Raptors
Jeff Teague - 21 - Pacers
George Hill - 18 - Jazz
Jrue Holiday - 24 - Pelicans
Derrick Rose - 14 - Timberwolves
Patty Mills - 18 - Rockets
Darren Collison - 16 - Kings
Chris Paul - 30 - Spurs

Others:
Gordon Hayward - Max - Jazz
Blake Griffin - Max - Celtics
Danilo Gallinari - 24 - Heat
Andre Iguodala - 17 - Magic
Paul Millsap - 33 - Nuggets
Dewayne Dedmon - 16 - Nets
Serge Ibaka - 22 - Raptors
James Johnson - 15 - Heat
J.J. Redick - 16 - Sixers
Taj Gibson - 14 - Sixers
C.J. Miles - MLE - Clippers
Patrick Patterson - 10 - Pelicans


Update at will, glad to have you participating Image
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Re: It's Game Time! - The 2017 Free Agency Contest 

Post#13 » by bondom34 » Wed Jun 28, 2017 7:53 am

Copying this and will try to remember to do it later this week:
RFA's

Otto Porter (WAS)($25)
Mason Plumlee (DEN)($16)
JaMychal Green (MEM)($12)
Joe Ingles (BKN)($14)
Nerlens Noel (DAL)($25)
Tim Hardaway (CHI)($17)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (DET)($23)
Andre Roberson (OKC)($14)
Kelly Olynyk (BOS)($16)
Nikola Mirotic (MIA)($12)
Tony Snell (MKE)($8)

Free agent PG's:

Kyle Lowry (TOR)($36)
Jeff Teague (SAS - edited)($20)
George Hill (UTAH)($22)
Jrue Holiday (NOP)($22)
Derrick Rose (NYK)($15)
Patty Mills (MKE - edited)($17)
Darren Collison (MIN)($12)

Others:

Gordon Hayward (UTAH)($33)
Blake Griffin (LAC)($33)
Danilo Gallinari (MIA)($21)
Andre Iguodala (PHI)($18)
Paul Millsap (DEN)($28)
Dewayne Dedmon (SAS)($9)
Serge Ibaka (TOR)($21)
James Johnson (LAL)($11)
J.J. Redick (BKN)($20)
Taj Gibson (MIN)($14)
C.J. Miles (DET)($10)
Patrick Patterson (BKN)($9)

I have no clue on most of these but it's for fun so why not. And yes I'm calling Ingles as the massive overpay of the summer.
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Re: 2 days to go - The 2017 Free Agency Prediction Contest 

Post#14 » by giberish » Wed Jun 28, 2017 8:01 am

The selected players, 30 in total:

Edit: I guess the OP was right and Paul never became a FA. I'll leave the others (though there's strong chance some other PG signs in SA.

RFA's

Otto Porter Washington $25M
Mason Plumlee Denver $12M
JaMychal Green Memphis $13M
Joe Ingles Utah $12M
Nerlens Noel Dallas $20M
Tim Hardaway Atlanta $15M
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Detroit $20M
Andre Roberson Denver (S&T) $11M
Kelly Olynyk Brooklyn $12M
Nikola Mirotic Dallas $10M
Tony Snell Milwaukee $10M

Free agent PG's:

Kyle Lowry Toronto $30M
Jeff Teague Denver $18M
George Hill Utah $20M
Jrue Holiday NO $22M
Derrick Rose NYK $15M
Patty Mills Chicago $12M
Darren Collison Sacramento $12M

Others:

Gordon Hayward Utah 30% max (so I think around $33M average)
Blake Griffin Boston $32M
Danilo Gallinari Miami $15M
Andre Iguodala Golden State $10M
Paul Millsap Houston $30M
Dewayne Dedmon San Antonio $8M
Serge Ibaka Toronto $18M
James Johnson Miami $12M
J.J. Redick Philly $15M
Taj Gibson OKC $10M
C.J. Miles Minnesota $12M
Patrick Patterson Minnesota $10M
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Re: 11h to go - The 2017 Free Agency Prediction Contest 

Post#15 » by caliban » Wed Jun 28, 2017 5:06 pm

Players to HOU before the C. Paul bomb are irreversible.

*lost a day in my countdown :oops: :noway: I blame the summer vacation :lol:
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Re: 11h to go - The 2017 Free Agency Prediction Contest 

Post#16 » by GeorgeMarcus » Wed Jun 28, 2017 8:30 pm

Alright, here goes nothing.

RFA's
Otto Porter Jr. - WAS - 25M
Mason Plumlee - DEN - 14M
JaMychal Green - MEM - 14.5M
Joe Ingles - DEN - 12M
Nerlens Noel - DAL - 25M
Tim Hardaway Jr. - ATL - 16M
Kentavius Caldwell-Pope - DET - 25M
Andre Roberson - OKC - 14M
Kelly Olynyk - BKN - 12M
Nikola Mirotic - SAC - 12M
Tony Snell - MIL - 11.5M

Free Agent PG's
Kyle Lowry - TOR - 30M
Jeff Teague - IND - 20M
George Hill - SAS - 20M
Jrue Holiday - NOP - 22.5M
Derrick Rose - UTA - 14.5M
Patty Mills - MIL - 14M
Darren Collison - SAC - 12.5M

Others
Gordon Hayward - UTA - 33M
Blake Griffin - LAC - 32M
Danilo Gallinari - OKC - 18.5M
Andre Iguodala - PHI - 17M
Paul Millsap - DEN - 24M
Dewayne Dedmon - SAS - 10.5M
Serge Ibaka - TOR - 20M
James Johnson - MIA - 16M
J.J. Redick - PHI - 14.5M
Taj Gibson - MIN - 10M
C.J. Miles - BKN - 13M
Patrick Patterson - NOP - 10M
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Re: 30h to go - The 2017 Free Agency Prediction Contest 

Post#17 » by jayjaysee » Wed Jun 28, 2017 9:59 pm

Cause I like to lose; and edit later.

Otto Porter Jr. - WAS - 25M
Mason Plumlee - DEN - 13M
JaMychal Green - BKN - 15M
Joe Ingles - UTA - 12M
Nerlens Noel - DAL - 22M
Tim Hardaway Jr. - ATL - 14M
Kentavius Caldwell-Pope - DET - 25M
Andre Roberson - OKC - 11M
Kelly Olynyk - ATL - 11M
Nikola Mirotic - CHI - 14M
Tony Snell - MIL - 11M

Free Agent PG's
Kyle Lowry - TOR - 30M
Jeff Teague - SAS - 20M
George Hill - UTA - 22M
Jrue Holiday - NOP - 25M
Derrick Rose - CHA - 9M MLE?
Patty Mills - PHI - 13M
Darren Collison - SAC - 14M

Others
Gordon Hayward - UTA - Max?
Blake Griffin - LAC - max?
Danilo Gallinari - Den - 20M
Andre Iguodala - Gsw - 15M
Paul Millsap - HOU - 29M
Dewayne Dedmon - SAS - 14M
Serge Ibaka - TOR - 25M
James Johnson - MIA - 14M
J.J. Redick - PHI - 18M
Taj Gibson - MIN - 15M
C.J. Miles - Indy - 15M
Patrick Patterson - TOR - 14M
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Re: 30h to go - The 2017 Free Agency Prediction Contest 

Post#18 » by MrIrrelevant » Wed Jun 28, 2017 10:54 pm

RFA's
Otto Porter Jr. - WAS - 26M
Mason Plumlee - DEN - 16M
JaMychal Green - MEM - 12M
Joe Ingles - UTA - 10M
Nerlens Noel - DAL - 26M
Tim Hardaway Jr. - ATL - 12M
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - BRO - 26M
Andre Roberson - OKC - 14M
Kelly Olynyk - SAC - 12M
Nikola Mirotic - UTA - 12M
Tony Snell - MIL - 16M

Free Agent PG's
Kyle Lowry - TOR - 32M
Jeff Teague - NYK - 25M
George Hill - UTA - 25M
Jrue Holiday - NOP - 28M
Derrick Rose - NYK - 8M
Patty Mills - SAS - 14M
Darren Collison - PHI - 10M

Others
Gordon Hayward - BOS - 33M
Blake Griffin - LAC - 33M
Danilo Gallinari - PHX - 26M
Andre Iguodala - LAC - 18M
Paul Millsap - DEN - 32M
Dewayne Dedmon - BKN - 10M
Serge Ibaka - ATL - 25M
James Johnson - MIA - 14M
J.J. Redick - DAL - 22M
Taj Gibson - OKC - 12M
C.J. Miles - CHI - 13M
Patrick Patterson - TOR - 10M
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Re: 30h to go - The 2017 Free Agency Prediction Contest 

Post#19 » by Takingbaconback » Thu Jun 29, 2017 6:01 am

I haven't watched a lot of teams enough to predict all this but I'm going to say Wolves trade Rubio and sign Patty Mills and Joe Ingles. 15.5 million a year for Mills and 9.5 million a year for Ingles.
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Re: 18h to go - The 2017 Free Agency Prediction Contest 

Post#20 » by wildvikeswolves » Thu Jun 29, 2017 12:43 pm

RFA's

Otto Porter (Wizards)(25)
Mason Plumlee (Nuggets)(14)
JaMychal Green (Grizzlies)(16)
Joe Ingles (Jazz)(15)
Nerlens Noel (Mavs)(20)
Tim Hardaway (Hawks)(15)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (Nets)(22)
Andre Roberson (Thunder)(13)
Kelly Olynyk (Celtics)(11)
Nikola Mirotic (Bulls)(14)
Tony Snell (Bucks)(12)

Free agent PG's:

Kyle Lowry (Timberwolves)(25)
Jeff Teague (Knicks)(15)
George Hill (Spurs)(16)
Jrue Holiday (Pelicans)(22)
Derrick Rose (Clippers)(11)
Patty Mills (76ers)(14)
Darren Collison (Kings)(13)

Others:

Gordon Hayward (Celtics)(Max)
Blake Griffin (Clippers)(Max)
Danilo Gallinari (Clippers)(16)
Andre Iguodala (Warriors)(12)
Paul Millsap (Nuggets)(22)
Dewayne Dedmon (Spurs)(11)
Serge Ibaka (Raptors)(18)
James Johnson (Heat)(13)
J.J. Redick (76ers)(15)
Taj Gibson (Thunder)(12)
C.J. Miles (Pistons)(11)
Patrick Patterson (Timberwolves)(10)

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