Toronto offseason in review (HW/Slava/bondom34/cl2117)

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Grade the offseason

A
0
No votes
A-
3
8%
B+
5
13%
B
6
15%
B-
3
8%
C+
9
23%
C
5
13%
C-
6
15%
D
1
3%
F
1
3%
 
Total votes: 39

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Re: Toronto offseason in review (HW/Slava/bondom34/cl2117) 

Post#21 » by Trader_Joe » Mon Aug 14, 2017 5:32 pm

Rapcity_11 wrote:
Trader_Joe wrote:
Rapcity_11 wrote:
The East is clearly worse. There's like 7 teams that the top teams in the East should beat every time.

Orlando
Brooklyn
Indiana
Chicago
New York
Atlanta
Philly (if and when Embiid misses time)

Also, see my post above.

That doesn't make them better necessarily. It might inflate their win total, but relative to the top teams in the East (CLE, BOS, WAS, MIL), I don't see how they improved. None of those teams you listed were threats to the Raptors last year.


We’re talking things like wins/point margin. So it matters.

Dario's comment, was he doesn''t see them as better than last year.
I agree. Just because their competition regressed and may inflate their win totals, means little when the PO's come and they have to face the teams I mentioned in the East, not to mention the depth of the West in the RS.
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Re: Toronto offseason in review (HW/Slava/bondom34/cl2117) 

Post#22 » by Rapcity_11 » Mon Aug 14, 2017 5:33 pm

Trader_Joe wrote:
Rapcity_11 wrote:
Trader_Joe wrote:That doesn't make them better necessarily. It might inflate their win total, but relative to the top teams in the East (CLE, BOS, WAS, MIL), I don't see how they improved. None of those teams you listed were threats to the Raptors last year.


We’re talking things like wins/point margin. So it matters.

Dario's comment, was he doesn''t see them as better than last year.
I agree. Just because their competition regressed and may inflate their win totals, means little when the PO's come and they have to face the teams I mentioned in the East, not to mention the depth of the West in the RS.


Dario concluded with a win total...
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Re: Toronto offseason in review (HW/Slava/bondom34/cl2117) 

Post#23 » by Mystical Apples » Mon Aug 14, 2017 6:36 pm

Rapcity_11 wrote:
SuperDario wrote:No disrespect to Raptors fans but I don't understand how the team is better than last year in any significant way. 48-34 sounds about right.


The East is clearly worse. There's like 7 teams that the top teams in the East should beat every time.

Orlando
Brooklyn
Indiana
Chicago
New York
Atlanta
Philly (if and when Embiid misses time)



You'd think but that's never the case. Last season Toronto lost 10 times to PHX, SAC, ORL, PHI, CHA, and MIN.
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Re: Toronto offseason in review (HW/Slava/bondom34/cl2117) 

Post#24 » by Rapcity_11 » Mon Aug 14, 2017 6:39 pm

Mystical Apples wrote:
Rapcity_11 wrote:
SuperDario wrote:No disrespect to Raptors fans but I don't understand how the team is better than last year in any significant way. 48-34 sounds about right.


The East is clearly worse. There's like 7 teams that the top teams in the East should beat every time.

Orlando
Brooklyn
Indiana
Chicago
New York
Atlanta
Philly (if and when Embiid misses time)



You'd think but that's never the case. Last season Toronto lost 10 times to PHX, SAC, ORL, PHI, CHA, and MIN.


Yeah, I get that. Wasn't saying they would win all those games or anything. The point is, more games against bad teams = more wins.
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Re: Toronto offseason in review (HW/Slava/bondom34/cl2117) 

Post#25 » by GeorgeMarcus » Mon Aug 14, 2017 6:59 pm

Rapcity_11 wrote:
SuperDario wrote:No disrespect to Raptors fans but I don't understand how the team is better than last year in any significant way. 48-34 sounds about right.


The East is clearly worse. There's like 7 teams that the top teams in the East should beat every time.

Orlando
Brooklyn
Indiana
Chicago
New York
Atlanta
Philly (if and when Embiid misses time)

Also, see my post above.


You will remove Philly from that list a week or 2 into the season :nod: Even Vegas pegged them at 45.5 wins this season, and they aren't homers like I am.
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Re: Toronto offseason in review (HW/Slava/bondom34/cl2117) 

Post#26 » by Rapcity_11 » Mon Aug 14, 2017 7:20 pm

SuperDario wrote:
Rapcity_11 wrote:
SuperDario wrote:No disrespect to Raptors fans but I don't understand how the team is better than last year in any significant way. 48-34 sounds about right.


The East is clearly worse. There's like 7 teams that the top teams in the East should beat every time.

Orlando
Brooklyn
Indiana
Chicago
New York
Atlanta
Philly (if and when Embiid misses time)

Also, see my post above.


You will remove Philly from that list a week or 2 into the season :nod: Even Vegas pegged them at 45.5 wins this season, and they aren't homers like I am.


If Embiid is healthy, sure. That seems unlikely though.

Where did you see 45.5? That’s crazy high.
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Re: Toronto offseason in review (HW/Slava/bondom34/cl2117) 

Post#27 » by GeorgeMarcus » Mon Aug 14, 2017 7:45 pm

Rapcity_11 wrote:
SuperDario wrote:
Rapcity_11 wrote:
The East is clearly worse. There's like 7 teams that the top teams in the East should beat every time.

Orlando
Brooklyn
Indiana
Chicago
New York
Atlanta
Philly (if and when Embiid misses time)

Also, see my post above.


You will remove Philly from that list a week or 2 into the season :nod: Even Vegas pegged them at 45.5 wins this season, and they aren't homers like I am.


If Embiid is healthy, sure. That seems unlikely though.

Where did you see 45.5? That’s crazy high.


Sportsbook, although I just checked again and it looks like they took win totals down. They do still have Championship odds, where the Sixers are tied with MIL at #9 (in the NBA, not just the East), but that doesn't directly translate to win totals.

You're right to believe Embiid's health will be a major indicator, but I'm not quite as pessimistic as you. Our FO took an extremely cautious approach last year in what was ultimately the last season of Tankadelphia. In the 31 games he played, we outscored our opponents by 3.3 points per 100 possessions (with a MUCH worse supporting cast,) compared to the putrid -8.2 we put up in the other 51 games. That level of individual impact is unprecedented for anyone let alone a rookie.
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Re: Toronto offseason in review (HW/Slava/bondom34/cl2117) 

Post#28 » by Mystical Apples » Mon Aug 14, 2017 8:16 pm

Rapcity_11 wrote:
Mystical Apples wrote:
Rapcity_11 wrote:
The East is clearly worse. There's like 7 teams that the top teams in the East should beat every time.

Orlando
Brooklyn
Indiana
Chicago
New York
Atlanta
Philly (if and when Embiid misses time)



You'd think but that's never the case. Last season Toronto lost 10 times to PHX, SAC, ORL, PHI, CHA, and MIN.


Yeah, I get that. Wasn't saying they would win all those games or anything. The point is, more games against bad teams = more wins.


Quality players migrated East ---> West but it's impact at the team level is overblown. Wins and losses will be distributed across the entire league, perhaps equating to 1 additional win per Eastern Conference playoff team.

You also have to ask if Toronto is a net debtor or creditor (and by how much). Because from my perspective I see them contributing to the East's win pool compared to last season.
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Re: Toronto offseason in review (HW/Slava/bondom34/cl2117) 

Post#29 » by Rapcity_11 » Mon Aug 14, 2017 8:27 pm

Mystical Apples wrote:
Rapcity_11 wrote:
Mystical Apples wrote:

You'd think but that's never the case. Last season Toronto lost 10 times to PHX, SAC, ORL, PHI, CHA, and MIN.


Yeah, I get that. Wasn't saying they would win all those games or anything. The point is, more games against bad teams = more wins.


Quality players migrated East ---> West but it's impact at the team level is overblown. Wins and losses will be distributed across the entire league, perhaps equating to 1 additional win per Eastern Conference playoff team.

You also have to ask if Toronto is a net debtor or creditor (and by how much). Because from my perspective I see them contributing to the East's win pool compared to last season.


Atlanta, Chicago and Indiana are all significantly worse. They could each win 20-30 games. That’s a lot of wins from last year to distribute. Far more than 1 per team. No team other than Philly projects to be much improved (and that’s so dependent on Embiid’s health).

That’s 9-12 games for East teams. That’s not overblown.

I have no idea what your 2nd paragraph is saying.
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Re: Toronto offseason in review (HW/Slava/bondom34/cl2117) 

Post#30 » by Patsfan1081 » Mon Aug 14, 2017 8:32 pm

dalton749 wrote:I'm expecting somewhere in the 52 wins range.

I think many people are forgetting that we have yet to see a healthy Lowry play with ibaka in the lineup, so that should essentially be seen as an offseason addition.

Losing the corpse of Carroll should be seen as a plus, and miles can replace most of what Ross used to provide.

The key thing here is that Powell will finally be getting big minutes, and that's a huge win. A core of Lowry/derozan/Powell/ibaka is good enough to beat up on a weak east.

I also think delon wright will show to be an improvement over Joseph through out the season. Toronto loves the two pg lineups, and wright has the size to effectively defend shooting guards, as well as the play making ability to allow Lowry to play off ball, where he is very effective.

Siakam might be the X factor on this team. If he can replace a decent amount of what Patterson provided, Toronto will battle for the 1 seed again.


I don't see them winning more games than last season, all these scenarios you're stating are on the premise of decent improvement from every player on the roster. You have teams like Washington and Boston with better young talent, I don't see them catching up in that department. Powell for one might have put up better numbers as a starter but overall from his rookie to soph season despite the minutes increase his numbers/efficiency weren't better, especially his outside shooting. We also did see Ibaka and Lowry play togetherer in the playoffs, Lowry worries me the most as he's getting up there in age and Casey plays him so many minutes. His first game back from injury last season he played 42 minutes, trading away Joseph and not brining in a equal replacement doesn't lessen the strain at all. They'll most likely have to remain extremely healthy to keep up with some of the better eastern teams, It's going to be difficult. I'd say 47 wins and 4th or 5th place finish in the east behind Cleveland, Boston, Washington, while in the mix with Milly and Miami.
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Re: Toronto offseason in review (HW/Slava/bondom34/cl2117) 

Post#31 » by Patsfan1081 » Mon Aug 14, 2017 9:14 pm

SuperDario wrote:
Rapcity_11 wrote:
SuperDario wrote:No disrespect to Raptors fans but I don't understand how the team is better than last year in any significant way. 48-34 sounds about right.


The East is clearly worse. There's like 7 teams that the top teams in the East should beat every time.

Orlando
Brooklyn
Indiana
Chicago
New York
Atlanta
Philly (if and when Embiid misses time)

Every Vegas site has Philly at 40.5 wins, it's been that amount for a while now everywhere. What's weird though is both Philly and Toronto have the same odds to win the title.
Also, see my post above.


You will remove Philly from that list a week or 2 into the season :nod: Even Vegas pegged them at 45.5 wins this season, and they aren't homers like I am.
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Post#32 » by GeorgeMarcus » Mon Aug 14, 2017 10:19 pm

Patsfan1081 wrote:
SuperDario wrote:
Rapcity_11 wrote:
The East is clearly worse. There's like 7 teams that the top teams in the East should beat every time.

Orlando
Brooklyn
Indiana
Chicago
New York
Atlanta
Philly (if and when Embiid misses time)


You will remove Philly from that list a week or 2 into the season :nod: Even Vegas pegged them at 45.5 wins this season, and they aren't homers like I am.

Every Vegas site has Philly at 40.5 wins, it's been that amount for a while now everywhere. What's weird though is both Philly and Toronto have the same odds to win the title.
Also, see my post above.


You're right- it was 40.5, not 45.5. My mistake. Still a .500 team with the widest range of possible outcomes, not a team you can preemptively chalk up W's against.
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Re: Toronto offseason in review (HW/Slava/bondom34/cl2117) 

Post#33 » by Mystical Apples » Mon Aug 14, 2017 10:21 pm

Rapcity_11 wrote:
Mystical Apples wrote:
Rapcity_11 wrote:
Yeah, I get that. Wasn't saying they would win all those games or anything. The point is, more games against bad teams = more wins.


Quality players migrated East ---> West but it's impact at the team level is overblown. Wins and losses will be distributed across the entire league, perhaps equating to 1 additional win per Eastern Conference playoff team.

You also have to ask if Toronto is a net debtor or creditor (and by how much). Because from my perspective I see them contributing to the East's win pool compared to last season.


Atlanta, Chicago and Indiana are all significantly worse. They could each win 20-30 games. That’s a lot of wins from last year to distribute. Far more than 1 per team. No team other than Philly projects to be much improved (and that’s so dependent on Embiid’s health).


37% of games are against the opposing conference so a significant portion of those Wins will migrate West. And if we're saying the West got better, then go ahead and reduce Toronto's expected win total against the West too.

And being fair, several EC teams should raise their win totals by 3+.


I have no idea what your 2nd paragraph is saying.


It says I expect Toronto to win 6 fewer games and those 6 games are up for grabs.
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Post#34 » by Rapcity_11 » Mon Aug 14, 2017 10:23 pm

SuperDario wrote:
Patsfan1081 wrote:
SuperDario wrote:
You will remove Philly from that list a week or 2 into the season :nod: Even Vegas pegged them at 45.5 wins this season, and they aren't homers like I am.

Every Vegas site has Philly at 40.5 wins, it's been that amount for a while now everywhere. What's weird though is both Philly and Toronto have the same odds to win the title.
Also, see my post above.


You're right- it was 40.5, not 45.5. My mistake. Still a .500 team with the widest range of possible outcomes, not a team you can preemptively chalk up W's against.


(if and when Embiid gets injured)....like I said above.
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Re: Toronto offseason in review (HW/Slava/bondom34/cl2117) 

Post#35 » by Rapcity_11 » Mon Aug 14, 2017 10:29 pm

Mystical Apples wrote:
Rapcity_11 wrote:
Mystical Apples wrote:
Quality players migrated East ---> West but it's impact at the team level is overblown. Wins and losses will be distributed across the entire league, perhaps equating to 1 additional win per Eastern Conference playoff team.

You also have to ask if Toronto is a net debtor or creditor (and by how much). Because from my perspective I see them contributing to the East's win pool compared to last season.


Atlanta, Chicago and Indiana are all significantly worse. They could each win 20-30 games. That’s a lot of wins from last year to distribute. Far more than 1 per team. No team other than Philly projects to be much improved (and that’s so dependent on Embiid’s health).


37% of games are against the opposing conference so a significant portion of those Wins will migrate West. And if we're saying the West got better, then go ahead and reduce Toronto's expected win total against the West too.

And being fair, several EC teams should raise their win totals by 3+.


I have no idea what your 2nd paragraph is saying.


It says I expect Toronto to win 6 fewer games and those 6 games are up for grabs.


Yes, some of those wins will go West. More will stay East. There's a ton to go around. East team win totals might go up, but nobody is much improved.

6 wins less? That's basically more like 8 when you consider the weaker conference. That makes zero sense considering the Raptors current roster is better than their roster for all but the last 4 games of last season.
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Re: Toronto offseason in review (HW/Slava/bondom34/cl2117) 

Post#36 » by Mystical Apples » Mon Aug 14, 2017 10:44 pm

Rapcity_11 wrote:
Mystical Apples wrote:
Rapcity_11 wrote:
Atlanta, Chicago and Indiana are all significantly worse. They could each win 20-30 games. That’s a lot of wins from last year to distribute. Far more than 1 per team. No team other than Philly projects to be much improved (and that’s so dependent on Embiid’s health).


37% of games are against the opposing conference so a significant portion of those Wins will migrate West. And if we're saying the West got better, then go ahead and reduce Toronto's expected win total against the West too.

And being fair, several EC teams should raise their win totals by 3+.


I have no idea what your 2nd paragraph is saying.


It says I expect Toronto to win 6 fewer games and those 6 games are up for grabs.


Yes, some of those wins will go West. More will stay East. There's a ton to go around. East team win totals might go up, but nobody is much improved.

6 wins less? That's basically more like 8 when you consider the weaker conference. That makes zero sense considering the Raptors current roster is better than their roster for all but the last 4 games of last season.


About ~ 7 fewer but yeah Toronto's roster is weaker. Specifically, a marginally lower ceiling with a far lower Regular Season floor (depth took a hit, age, fit issues from lack of positional flexibility).
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Re: Toronto offseason in review (HW/Slava/bondom34/cl2117) 

Post#37 » by Rapcity_11 » Mon Aug 14, 2017 10:48 pm

Mystical Apples wrote:
Rapcity_11 wrote:
Mystical Apples wrote:
37% of games are against the opposing conference so a significant portion of those Wins will migrate West. And if we're saying the West got better, then go ahead and reduce Toronto's expected win total against the West too.

And being fair, several EC teams should raise their win totals by 3+.




It says I expect Toronto to win 6 fewer games and those 6 games are up for grabs.


Yes, some of those wins will go West. More will stay East. There's a ton to go around. East team win totals might go up, but nobody is much improved.

6 wins less? That's basically more like 8 when you consider the weaker conference. That makes zero sense considering the Raptors current roster is better than their roster for all but the last 4 games of last season.


About ~ 7 fewer but yeah Toronto's roster is weaker. Specifically, a marginally lower ceiling with a far lower Regular Season floor (depth took a hit, age, fit issues from lack of positional flexibility).


How are they worse than the roster last year before the all-star break?

Miles for Carroll
Ibaka for Patterson
Wright for Joseph
Powell (more PT) for Ross

That's not a downgrade.

And after the break Lowry was out, so they're obviously better with him healthy.
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Re: Toronto offseason in review (HW/Slava/bondom34/cl2117) 

Post#38 » by HartfordWhalers » Mon Aug 14, 2017 10:53 pm

Rapcity_11 wrote:
Mystical Apples wrote:
Rapcity_11 wrote:
Yes, some of those wins will go West. More will stay East. There's a ton to go around. East team win totals might go up, but nobody is much improved.

6 wins less? That's basically more like 8 when you consider the weaker conference. That makes zero sense considering the Raptors current roster is better than their roster for all but the last 4 games of last season.


About ~ 7 fewer but yeah Toronto's roster is weaker. Specifically, a marginally lower ceiling with a far lower Regular Season floor (depth took a hit, age, fit issues from lack of positional flexibility).


How are they worse than the roster last year before the all-star break?

Miles for Carroll
Ibaka for Patterson
Wright for Joseph
Powell (more PT) for Ross

That's not a downgrade.

And after the break Lowry was out, so they're obviously better with him healthy.


I noted this above a few times, but Carroll was better than Miles last year.
Ross + Powell would seem better than just Powell to most people.
And I think the expectations for Wright are pretty lofty, but we will see.
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Re: Toronto offseason in review (HW/Slava/bondom34/cl2117) 

Post#39 » by Mystical Apples » Mon Aug 14, 2017 11:13 pm

Rapcity_11 wrote:
Mystical Apples wrote:
Rapcity_11 wrote:
Yes, some of those wins will go West. More will stay East. There's a ton to go around. East team win totals might go up, but nobody is much improved.

6 wins less? That's basically more like 8 when you consider the weaker conference. That makes zero sense considering the Raptors current roster is better than their roster for all but the last 4 games of last season.


About ~ 7 fewer but yeah Toronto's roster is weaker. Specifically, a marginally lower ceiling with a far lower Regular Season floor (depth took a hit, age, fit issues from lack of positional flexibility).


How are they worse than the roster last year before the all-star break?

Miles for Carroll
Ibaka for Patterson
Wright for Joseph
Powell (more PT) for Ross

That's not a downgrade.

And after the break Lowry was out, so they're obviously better with him healthy.


Pretty clear collective downgrade, IMO, but that's not the entire issue. During the offseason Toronto preached a modern offensive philosophy so I assumed their glaring lack of additive playmakers would be addressed.

Yet Toronto went the other direction by retaining weak positional playmakers, dropped neutral/above average passers, and added Miles who shoots but is a severely limited playmaker.....like JV and Ibaka weak.


I suspect Toronto will accumulate early-season wins and then struggle as opposing defenses become connected.
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Re: Toronto offseason in review (HW/Slava/bondom34/cl2117) 

Post#40 » by dalton749 » Mon Aug 14, 2017 11:48 pm

Patsfan1081 wrote:
dalton749 wrote:I'm expecting somewhere in the 52 wins range.

I think many people are forgetting that we have yet to see a healthy Lowry play with ibaka in the lineup, so that should essentially be seen as an offseason addition.

Losing the corpse of Carroll should be seen as a plus, and miles can replace most of what Ross used to provide.

The key thing here is that Powell will finally be getting big minutes, and that's a huge win. A core of Lowry/derozan/Powell/ibaka is good enough to beat up on a weak east.

I also think delon wright will show to be an improvement over Joseph through out the season. Toronto loves the two pg lineups, and wright has the size to effectively defend shooting guards, as well as the play making ability to allow Lowry to play off ball, where he is very effective.

Siakam might be the X factor on this team. If he can replace a decent amount of what Patterson provided, Toronto will battle for the 1 seed again.


I don't see them winning more games than last season, all these scenarios you're stating are on the premise of decent improvement from every player on the roster. You have teams like Washington and Boston with better young talent, I don't see them catching up in that department. Powell for one might have put up better numbers as a starter but overall from his rookie to soph season despite the minutes increase his numbers/efficiency weren't better, especially his outside shooting. We also did see Ibaka and Lowry play togetherer in the playoffs, Lowry worries me the most as he's getting up there in age and Casey plays him so many minutes. His first game back from injury last season he played 42 minutes, trading away Joseph and not brining in a equal replacement doesn't lessen the strain at all. They'll most likely have to remain extremely healthy to keep up with some of the better eastern teams, It's going to be difficult. I'd say 47 wins and 4th or 5th place finish in the east behind Cleveland, Boston, Washington, while in the mix with Milly and Miami.


I don't think we need to see improvement from anyone but the young guys who are stepping in. Around the same level as last year from Lowry,derozan,Powell,ibaka,Jv, and miles should be good for 50 wins in the weak east

Powell had a slump mid year when he was asked to become the main shot creator off the bench after the ross trade, otherwise he was very solid.

Playoffs isn't exactly the time for two key players to get comfortable playing together, that **** happens in the regular season which they didn't have.

Delon wrights career numbers thus far are better than what Joseph provided last year, but he started the year with shoulder surgery and wasn't going to steal the spot from the hometown kid. Jospeh was moved because wright is fully capable of doing the job, and in my opinion will do it better.

Siakam is the only one who concerns me in filling the role that's there, but he has certainly improved from last year when he started half of the season and then went and dominated the dleague enroute to a championship down there. Surely he can do something decent against bench players.

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