Knicks offseason in review (HW/Slava/bondom34/Mamba4Goat/cl2117/BBallFreak)
Posted: Mon Aug 14, 2017 2:41 pm
Yes, a Melo deal should happen within 24 hours now that this is posted.
New York Knicks Offseason Review
Key Losses:
Phil Jackson
Derrick Rose
Losses:
Justin Holiday
Sasha Vujacic
Maurice Ndour
Marshall Plumlee
Draft:
#8 Frank Ntilikina
#44 Damyean Dotson
Trades:
'19 2nd and $400,000 for Scott Perry (Front Office)
Free Agency:
Tim Hardaway Jr. 4/71m
Frank Ntilikina rookie scale
Ron Baker 2/8.9m
Luke Kornet two way contract
Current Depth Chart: (taken from bbinsiders)
PG: Frank Ntilikina, Chasson Randle
SG: Tim Hardaway Jr., Courtney Lee, Ron Baker
SF: Carmelo Anthony, Lance Thomas
PF: Kristaps Porzingis, Mindaugas Kuzminskas
C: Joakim Noah, Guillermo Hernangomez, Kyle O’Quinn
HartfordWhalers wrote:HartfordWhalers Review
Key Losses:
Phil Jackson
Phil could get an entire topic on himself. His contract got picked up for two more expensive years, he tried to publicly shame Melo into a trade, he upset Porzingis in doing so to the point that Porzingis skipped his exit meeting, Phil responded by firing a warning shot at Porzingis and threatened to trade him and started listening on offers, ran the draft and went for the best fit with Phil's philosophy. And only then, after the draft did Phil finally got dumped and free agency started. Which wasn't even good news as then free agency was blown.
So, Phil's departure was key. As for whether it was good, I think it was. Moves like the drafting of Porzingis feel so out of place in a sea of poor decisions that in the end you wonder if it wasn't just the role of random chance, that the sun shines on even a dog's ass every now and then. But whats replacing him should get replaced also, just based off the Tim Hardaway Jr contract, and the lack of vision to try anything different.
Losses:
List above
and Derek Rose
Bunch of who's. Oh, and Plumlee got 100k for not being dropped at the end of last season may not be paying Phil two more years wasteful, but it is noteworthily inefficient on a small scale. Really this Knicks offseason is just comically absurd even in the small details.
Oh yeah, and Rose. Rose was third on the team in points and minutes per game. He ate up over 2000 minutes and had a TS% (53%) that wasn't far from Melo's (53.5%). He filled up a time, space and newspaper stories -- will Rose get a max deal or maybe he is awol without telling anyone. But was Rose really a key loss? He was league average by BPM, so replacing him with a replacement level player signed to a rookie min deal is a loss. But replacing him with just a generic NBA player and you aren't missing a beat. And RPM is even harsher, finding Rose the 50th best pg last season and ripping his defense which is troubling as this is an area where RPM has more data with the on off splits than BPM. Finally,while Rose had one of the best offensive ratings on the Knicks, looking forward and getting a player who sets his teammates up more is more important for the future development of those players. Altogether, I'm comfortable lumping Rose as just a loss and not a key loss.
Draft:
Put me down as DSJ over Frank and that was before summer league. I would have even gone Monk over Frank. I will eat my words when Frank turns out to tear everything up, but I think you want an explosive driver or pure shooting shooter and focus on the offensive compliment to Porzingis and tighten the defense from top to bottom later. More on this in the additional thoughts.
Trades:
The Knicks should pay a 2nd to be banned from dealing with every front office in the league. Not letting David Griffin pick his staff seemed overly controlling and meddling in all the wrong ways, so Perry has his work cut out dealing with the mess that got worse with the Hardaway signing.
Free Agency:
So much for learning from the past. Joakim Noah redux at least is younger this time. But really this is so awful that no amount of words should accurately capture how tragic that the only post Phil move was one that solidifies the Knicks inability to stop paying for their past and start building a future. Ron Baker allegedly getting a big payday highlights the fact that undrafted free agents should be signed for multiyear deals, even if it costs a small guarantee.
Current Depth Chart: (taken from bbinsiders)
Noah shows as starting which looks nice. Lee should either be starting or traded.
Needs:
What don't they Knicks need?
They have:
PG: Frank Ntilikina
SG: $, Lee
SF: Non trade clause
PF: Kristaps Porzingis
C: Guillermo Hernangomez, $
So, lets go with Ntilikina/Porzingis/Hernangomez developing chemistry together. If that works, they have something to build off of as the other parts get traded away or eventually expire.
Additional Thoughts:
This is what I wrote last season here:2016 offseason wrote:Porzingis. Porzingis growth is what the team really needs and will rely on going forward.
Where does it come n the offensive side? Last season, 225 of Porzingis 1028 points last season came as a spot up shooter, scoring with the efficiency of just the 25.9 percentile.
164 roll man (64.4 percentile)
138 post up (44.8 percentile)
135 cuts (33.9 percentile)
100 putbacks (83.8 percentile) Maybe this is why they got Rose and Jennings?
76 transition (20.3 percentile)
75 off screens (45.9 percentile)
52 isolation (40.9 percentile)
8 points ballhandler (cannot be significant 18.1 percentile)
The spot up shooting hopefully can improve its efficiency, but the real question I would have is can you get a pg and play the pick and roll like Stockton and Malone with that player and Porzingis for the next decade? I don't think that is Rose at all. If not, can Porzingis develop a post game? It wouldn't be my first choice, and Melo Rose and Noah don't seem like a setup to do so. Porzingis might just spend this season shooting more jumpers, and as a third option behind Melo and Rose (who loves to eat up possessions), which is not what I would have liked ideally. Instead, I would be looking at Porzingis and seeing if there is any way to mold him into a first option that can create versus a complimentary player that just scores off others.
I recapped this previously, but last season saw:1196 total points distributed with:
265 spot up (58.0 percentile)
201 roll man (54.6 percentile)
135 post up (30.5 percentile)
149 cuts (80.0 percentile)
72 put backs (23.4 percentile)
130 transition (50.2 percentile)
103 off screen (67.5 percentile)
67 iso (28.1 percentile)
So, some better spot up shooting and a little more roll man offense, but not enough for what I would be looking for. Here is where I think DSJ driving relentlessly would have made sense, and try to mold Porzingis into one of the best pick and roll partner in the league. Or if not, at least have Monk spotting up and getting Porzingis space (in a triangle like three man game with Melo perhaps?). I'm not sold they have done enough to set up a path to first option for Porzingis, but hopefully I'm just being too low on Frank Ntilikina and his ability to break down a defense.
Trade idea: a Lee + 2nd for Asik + 1st type trade is needed as part of the regrouping of the team.
Projected Win/Loss: 26-56I have them one win worse than the Nets. But it could be two. Last year my forecast was received as too negative, and still predicted too many wins. This year I'm even more willing to consider the trades and injuries that will happen, and incorporate them into lowering my expectations.
Off-Season Grade: F+ Wasted millions. Underperformed in the draft. This might need to be highlighted together. The team that just paid Phil Jackson 24 million to do the 2017 draft did not use the 8m* they had available to buy a single draft pick. Picks sold to other teams include: #38, #39, #46 and #48. Grabbing just two of those picks (although 3 could have been possible) would have been nice and added some marginal youth to bet on.
(*8m because the Sixers decided to circumvent the one year limits on cash and sell picks after July 1st in what appears to be wink wink pre-arranged deals.)
Free agency adds to the clock on waiting out Knicks bad contracts. So much better would have been doing that Carroll deal, or just doing nothing. A net negative here.
Why the plus? They did remove Phil Jackson, and the latest free agent mistake is younger at least.
Slava wrote:Slava’s Knicks Review
Key Losses:
Derrick Rose
Phil Jackson
Yes I have Derrick Rose as a key loss for what they gave up for him and the fact that they do not currently have a starting PG or reliable back up if you think Ntilikina is ready to be the full time starter right now. Rose might not have been worth the contract he was playing at but he still firmly remains in the section of guards who won’t cost you games, which is a valuable niche in the league. Considering he took the minimum in Cleveland, unless you think he was motivated by showcasing himself on a LeBron led team, an MLE level deal to bring him back for 2-3 years might not have been bad when you look at the bare rotation right now.
Phil finally took his money and rode off into the sunset. Not before alienating and almost trading away the one piece which might shed a positive light on his legacy as an executive in NY. Peter Vecsey in a recent podcast revealed that Phil wanted to deal Porzingis to Boston for the #1 pick to select Lonzo Ball. There's a lot to read from that and the possibility of Lonzo making post entries to Kyle O’Quinn and cutting to the corner in the triangle offense would make any basketball aficionado weep so thanks to Boston for sparing us that.
Losses:
I cannot figure out how former two time NBA champion (yes you read it right) Sasha managed to still be on an NBA roster. Next step might be back to Turkey or Russia.
Draft:
So the draft and scouting was down under Phil’s purview, which apparently lead to them taking Ntilikina over Dennis Smith Jr as he appeared a better fit for the triangle offense but there’s always a fair amount of revisionist history that is appended to these picks with a bit of hindsight, like how Hinkie would have taken KP ahead of Okafor if not for ownership pressure so its hard to read too much into it.
Ntilikina is an intriguing prospect who projects quite well defensively and appeared to be an adequate outside shooter at international level. Still rightly or wrongly he is going to be compared to DSJ, who from evidence of his impressive athleticism in the summer league is much more ready to contribute right now and a few good performances there is going to add fuel to the fire with the NY media criticism and once Melo is gone, KP and the rookie will bear most of the scrutiny for what is shaping up to be another losing season. So you hope he has the right temperament to get through it.
By all accounts he is a low variance prospect who is mature for his age and if he can remain the starter at PG, that’s as much as you can ask while picking outside the top 5.
Trades:
I usually don’t like front office trades yielding picks even in this case when Sacramento were more than generous to let Perry go having just signed him earlier in the summer and that second rounder is likely to be high. In recent years the compensation for buying such a pick has been in the ~ $2M range. Another $400k on top of it? It doesn’t make any dent on the cap so no big deal but that is likely an additional year of Perry’s annual salary being given upfront there, the total compensation feels like they are paying Perry’s salary over a 5 year contract twice over. Once to Sacramento and another to Perry.
Free Agency:
Hardaway is not a bad player and someone other than KP is going to have to score points now that Melo is sure to be jettisoned but $71M over 4 years is a bad deal in last summer’s crazy market, let alone this year. This hamstrings the Knicks’ cap space for next summer when they could have had their pick of SGs in free agency, when people like Bradly and KCP are free agents with not a lot of teams having money to spend. Atlanta probably set a record for the quickest time any team has taken to decline matching an offer sheet on this one.
The Ron Baker deal makes even less sense. Nothing from a 27% 3 pt, 38% FG and -4.4 BPM player sounds like anything more than a two way player, let alone a minimum level NBA caliber rotation guy. Its not like someone else was even willing to pay him when more capable guards were left on the market but the Knicks ended up offering him two guaranteed years at $8.9M net to make him their 3rd string SG.
Current Depth Chart: (taken from bbinsiders)
It is hard to comment on this as this is very unlikely to be the final rotation after the inevitable Melo trade but that PG spot looks absolutely devoid of any NBA ready talent.
Needs:
A resolution to Melodrama
A starting PG
Offensive development from Porzingis
Some semblance of health and fitness from Noah
Additional Thoughts:
This is as much of an incomplete off-season as we are going to see this summer and neither the line up nor the direction of the franchise will become evident until the Carmelo trade happens and who the Knicks get back in return. Otherwise, getting out of Phil is a good start, moving on from Melo would be even better as long as they start empowering a GM to actually make basketball decisions instead of being another suit in the Steve Mills ensemble.
The good news is that they have their picks in hand and could very well shoot for the Luka Doncic - Michael Porter Jr. lottery and with a Porzingis extension in tow, could start to look at a brighter future unless someone swindles them with a pick swap to take on Noah’s contract.
Projected Win/Loss: 26-56
Off-Season Grade: D
bondom34 wrote:Bondom34's Review
Key Losses:
I don't really know what to make of Phil. He certainly was a key loss, but can a key loss be a good thing? Outside of drafting KP, I can't think of many or any truly positive moves made by him, so for the Knicks this is a great loss.
Losses:Another group where I don't feel like much was really lost. Rose wasn't good, and nobody here was really integral to keep. Holiday was OK, but not needed especially with Hardaway now on board.
Draft:
They had one pick and honestly I'm not well informed enough to know if it was the right one. He didn't play in SL, so there's really not much to go off of, but DSJ did look like a top tier rookie PG. I can't really dock them for it at this point though.
Trades/Free Agency:
No major trades as of this writing (just trade Melo already seriously), and I'm not nearly as low on free agency as a lot of others. The further I look into the numbers THJ compares pretty well with guys like KCP, Tobias Harris, and Fournier, none of who I consider to be a bad contract. Was it probably an overpay? Yeah, but not egregious to me given it was for a RFA and they wanted him. Baker was a definite overpay and due to the length of the deal he essentially has a NTC, but it's small. Somehow they totally didn't go for any other PGs though which I'm not a fan of.\
Needs:
I'd like to see them get a PG to mentor and play in front of Frank, and move on from Melo if that relationship can't be repaired (which seems unlikely). Don't take bad money for him, but cut your losses.
Additional Thoughts:
I'm not really as low on this offseason as a lot I've read publicly. I don't mind THJ, I don't mind the draft, and moving on from Phil was fantastic. I don't think it was amazing or anything but it wasn't awful, and after last year with Rose and Noah that feels like a step forward.
Projected Win/Loss:30-52
Off-Season Grade:C+
Mamba4Goat wrote:Mamba4goat's Review
Key Losses:
I honestly don't view anyone, including Phil and Rose as a key loss. I'll elaborate on the next piece.
Losses:
List above and
Phil Jackson
Derek Rose
So for starters, I think they got better through addition by subtraction by cutting ties with Rose and Jackson. Jackson was a big name, however, he didn't live up to it by any means. Zinger is good, but thats all Phil has brought to the table. A lot of his moves were really mediocre and he was a press nightmare last year with Melo and Zinger. Add in his Noah signing and other misc distractions and Phil being gone should be a pretty good thing going forward.
Which brings me to Rose. The former MVP who wasn't ready to accept his mediocrity. Rose was a slightly smaller disraction but I'm glad the Knicks didn't max him out.
Holiday will be missed and he's one of the random players I often pull for. If they could have signed him to the deal he got it would have been nice. He's a decent wing and the Knicks don't really have much better than him behind Melo, Lee, and Hardaway.
Sasha only gets a mention because I love him, but he probably won't be missed.
Draft:
I like Nitikilina and I don't mind him getting picked at all. Hopefully the Knicks commit to a rebuild and keep him though. However it'd be nice if he had some support at point guard, like a Darren Collison type. But considering what was on the board, I like the pick.
Trades:
I like Perry and I'm excited to see what he brings. I'm also glad this was the only trade.
Free Agency:
So...Tim Hardaway... I've liked the dude but not at that contract. The Knicks are really shooting themselves in the foot with the Hardaway and Noah deals and it'll be something they have to dump or embrace in the future.
I like that they brought Ron Baker back too. He seems like a good kid and a hard worker. If I recall right, he's a fan favorite too. Not goingto complain about that.
Current Depth Chart: (taken from bbinsiders)
Really decent big man depth, but thats about it...
Needs:
First and foremost...direction. are they competing, tanking? What? Personally I vote they rebuild but they keep on giving out there huge contracts to guys who aren't game changers and it's very misleading.
Get rid of Melo. I love Melo but he's the last distraction that they need to do away with. It'll help chemistry and give them more clarity on their lack of direction.
A higher end backup point guard. With Randle being the only other point guard on the roster a lot with be expected out of their rook. I'm not saying he can't do it, but it'd help ease the load if their was a starting level/upper tier back up on the roster.
No more big deals. The only big contract the Knicks should be thinking of giving out in the future is a Zinger extension.
Lastly, get value for anyone you can that isn't on a rookie deal.
Additional Thoughts:
The Knicks still have a while till they're a competitive team, but they really need to figure out what they want to do rather than working against themselves.
Projected Win/Loss: 23-59
Hopefully they get a top 5 pick in the draft, but they should embrace the rebuild.
Off-Season Grade:C-
I wanted to go lower, but decided getting rid of Jackson merited some points.
cl2117 wrote:cl2117 Review
Key Losses:
Phil Jackson
It's not even that I think Phil is a key loss, but it's just that his time there has caused such chaos and now cutting ties with him cements that having all been for naught. I think it's the best thing for the long-term prospects of the organization, but the **** he stirred with Melo and KP may linger.
Losses:
Derrick Rose
Justin Holiday
Neither are major losses, but I think particularly in the context of who they did choose to spend money on (coughTimHardawayJrcough), it makes you wonder why they didn't make more of an effort to bring either back. I know Rose wasn't interested in mentoring Frank, but I thought Holiday signed for a very reasonable deal in Chicago. I would have gone to at least 2/10 for him.
Draft:
They should have taken DSJ. I just don't get drafting a PG who fits the triangle when you're cutting ties with Phil, especially with DSJ still on the board. I just think Dennis has a higher ceiling due to his explosiveness and he's more ready to compete now.
That being said I don't think it was a big reach. I expected Frank to go to Dallas at #9 if DSJ went at #8. Ntilikina has all the tools to be a special player given his size and his shooting potential, but he's still quite raw and I question whether the Knicks are the best incubator for a guy that far away.
I'd grade it a B. Fits a need, not a reach, good potential, but just not exciting and disappointing given who went with the next pick.
Trades:
The Perry trade is weird. If he can bring some semblance of organization back to the Knicks it'll be worth it.
Free Agency:
The definition of Knicks gonna Knick.
They get an F- on their free agency moves. This was the most concerning part of their offseason because it can't be blamed on Phil.
The Hawks were trying to move THJ for 2nd round picks before the deadline because they didn't want to pay him and then NYK come in and make THJ an offer that is only too easy for Atlanta to refuse.
I'm struggling to think of a team that so woefully overestimated the market for a guy (maybe Mozgov with LAL). Who was going to offer him $70m? That's got to be at least $20m more than Atlanta would have offered AND the contract came with all the trimmings (15% kicker and a pointless player option). Easily the worst deal of the off-season.
In comparison the Ron Baker deal, which is also a pointless overpay, seems incredibly reasonable.
Current Depth Chart: (taken from bbinsiders)
THJ better be starting with all that money they're paying him. It makes me physically feel ill considering how much they've got tied up between THJ, Melo and Noah. Thank god they own all their own picks.
Needs:
A time machine to go back and not offer THJ anything
And end to the Melo drama melodrama
Flowers and candy for KP
Frank not to be outplayed by DSJ
Them signing THJ to what is instantly one of the worst contracts in the league puts even more pressure on them to resolve the Melo situation in my opinion. And they need to bring some normalcy back to Madison Square Garden. It's even more important to get that normalcy given the strained relationship with KP, who is basically their only hope for salvation. I think Frank is going to be good, but I worry that he's going to get outshined based on his rawness and that comparison hanging over his head in a market as vicious as New York could be troublesome.
Additional Thoughts:
Knicks gonna Knick
Projected Win/Loss: 29-53
I'm assuming Melo is dealt, but not before the season starts. I think I'd drop them another win or two if it was before.
Off-Season Grade: D
The only thing keeping it above an F is that, despite thinking they should have taken DSJ, I think Frank is actually a good prospect for them. But that THJ deal combined with the Phil drama, further alienating Melo and somehow pissing off KP all combine for a terrible off-season.
BBallFreak wrote:New York Knicks Offseason Review
by BBallFreak
Key Losses:
Derrick Rose
Say what you want about Rose, but they didn't replace him, and as bad as he is, he can at least still create off the dribble.
Losses:
Justin Holiday
Sasha Vujacic
Maurice Ndour
Marshall Plumlee
Phil Jackson
Draft:
#8 Frank Ntilikina
A Phil Jackson pick, the jury is out. High hopes for him, as Jackson was a fairly decent with the draft.
Trades:
'19 2nd and $400,000 for Scott Perry (Front Office)
Free Agency:
Tim Hardaway Jr. 4/71m
Frank Ntilikina rookie scale
Ron Baker 2/8.9m
Luke Kornet two way contract
Current Depth Chart: (taken from bbinsiders)
PG: Frank Ntilikina, Chasson Randle
SG: Tim Hardaway Jr., Courtney Lee, Ron Baker
SF: Carmelo Anthony, Lance Thomas
PF: Kristaps Porzingis, Mindaugas Kuzminskas
C: Joakim Noah, Guillermo Hernangomez, Kyle O’Quinn
Needs:
The first thing they need is a direction. You would think, with the ousting of Phil Jackson (long overdue) that a change in philosophy would have been the first order of business. Instead, they throw a ton of money at Tim Hardaway Jr., a player I personally like but not at the price tag he's on. I don't get it. He's a nice player, but why would a rebuilding team hamper their efforts like this?
The second thing they are in desperate need of is a resolution to the Carmelo Anthony situation. Phil wanted him gone, the new regime came in, tried to repair the relationship to no avail, and now they want him gone. Make a move, and get him out of there. He's a distraction to a team that doesn't need it.
Additional Thoughts:
Getting rid of Phil is a tremendous first step, but I question what they're doing with Anthony, and have serious reservations with the Hardaway signing, though as a long time Heat fan, I recognize the irony of Tim Hardaway (Jr.) playing for the Knicks.
They really need a serious plan and a way to build.
Projected Win/Loss:
If they trade Melo, 25-57
If they keep Melo, 32-50
Off-Season Grade:C-
Sorry, but as great as getting rid of Phil was, the Hardaway signing and their indecisiveness with Carmelo Anthony drive this down. The only thing that keeps them from getting an F is the removal of Phil Jackson...
