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Orlando offseason in review (HW/Slava/cl2117/bondom34/BBallFreak/pacers33granger)

Posted: Thu Aug 17, 2017 4:22 pm
by HartfordWhalers
Orlando Offseason Review

Key Losses:
Rob Hennigan (Front Office)

Losses:
Jeff Green
Jodie Meeks
Damjan Rudez
Stephen Zimmerman
C.J. Watson (stretched)

Draft:
#6 Jonathan Isaacs
#25 Traded
#33 Wesley Iwundu
#35 Traded

Trades:
2018 2nd from Orlando (worst of Orlando and LAL 2nd) for Jeff Weltman (FO)
Anzejs Pasecniks (#25) for '20 OKC 1st (top 20 one shot 2 years after pick to Minnesota) and '20 2nd worst of NYK or NKN
Ivan Rabb (#35th) for '19 BKN 2nd

Free Agency:
Jeff Weltman and John Hammond Front Office
Jonathon Simmons 3/18m (last year 1m gtd, declining deal)
Shelvin Mack 2/12m (last year ungtd)
Jonathan Isaac rookie scale
Wesley Iwundu 3/4m last year TO
Arron Afflalo min
Mo Speights min
Patricio Garino min (275k gtd) {April}
Khem Birch 2 year min (25k gtd)

Current Depth Chart: (taken from bbinsiders)
PG: Elfrid Payton, D.J. Augustin, Shelvin Mack
SG: Evan Fournier, Jonathon Simmons, Arron Afflalo, Marcus Georges-Hunt
SF: Terrence Ross, Mario Hezonja, Patricio Garino, Wesley Iwundu
PF: Aaron Gordon, Jonathan Isaac, Khem Birch
C: Bismack Biyombo, Nikola Vucevic, Marreese Speights


HartfordWhalers wrote:HartfordWhalers Review

Key Losses:
The transition from Hennigan is the real story of the offseason. Hennigan had a fascinating run, with a few moves that even now are difficult to pin down and assess.
At the time, the Dwight deal was generally viewed as a bad deal for Orlando.

When Trade board posters were asked to pick all the winners, the result was everyone but Orlando in general:
Denver 28
LA Lakers 38
Orlando 6
Philadelphia 34

In what followed Redick was flipped for Tobias Harris and suddenly with Dwight and Bynum each flaming out (or in Bynum's case not playing at all) the view on Vucevic/Harkless/Afflalo/and some spare picks that were protected rapidly changed with Orlando the only winner. A team on the rise, with promising youth, future picks, and some cap flexibility. Afflalo for Fournier just added to that.

But what followed was a bunch of high draft picks that failed to develop sufficiently to push the team to the playoffs. Rental vets that never looked good or filled the holes they were supposed to. And suddenly a stagnating rebuild.

Hennigan took his big swings all around Elfrid Payton as the pg that could move Orlando out of that area. First surrendering a future Philly pick (protected 1-8 in 2018 so this year we will see if it would have conveyed), a high 2nd (Willy Hernangomez) and pick 12 (Dario Saric) just to get him back from Philly who took him with no deal in place at 10. Ignoring the pick, I think there is a strong case that Orlando would be better off with Dario and Willy in hindsight.

Trading Oladipo for Ibaka and keeping Payton as the starting pg was an even bigger gamble on Payton, and the reviews at the time were that instead of that going for someone who was clearly available (and cheaper) like Teague 'looks better to me than with Ibaka and still with Payton at pg'. The results bore that out, underperforming even the negative expectations.

To his credit, Hennigan pulled the plug on the Ibaka experience and got back a late first and Ross, thus recouping some value. GM's tend to be see a lot of retreads float back up, and while Hennigan deserved to be fired -- he bet wrong too often by the end -- he had enough intriguing moves that I won't too harshly criticize if he gets a second chance somewhere after being an assistant gm.

Losses:
Stretching CJ Watson seems just boneheaded. Why did Orlando need the extra two thirds of a million this season? No, the 333k each next two seasons shouldn't matter either, but just get it over with during a clearly down year.

Draft:
I wanted Boston to take Isaac at #3. Getting him at #6 was a great get for Orlando, and I couldn't be more supportive of the upside to the pick even with the obvious redundancies with Aaron Gordon. Isaac has the potential to be a defensive game changer, and the sort of sneaky offensive game that suddenly blossoms and everyone wonders how he fell to where he fell to. How did Indiana get Paul George at #8? San Antonio Kawhi at #15? Orlando Issac at #6 could be next in that line. Or he could stay all potential and never turn it into production, the next Aaron Gordon. Speaking of which, I do wonder how Isaac will fit long term with Gordon, when both might be best as pf's. But you don't flail around as a bottom team for as long as Orlando has and draft around guys, you need to reach for the best looking prospect and try to get the guy to build around.

No strong feelings on Wesley Iwundu. On the one hand he is really old already which I like a lot less when you need high upside swings and cornerstone pieces, versus less likely to bust safer potential role players. On the other hand, his scouting profile reads a lot more like one of those high risk high upside picks. i

As for trading #25 and #35, I'm not a fan of dumping both. Now is the time to start bringing in rookies to build off of, and see who sticks. Having 3 rookies would have been something I would have supported -- it is clear you are rebuilding and you run them big minutes, let them struggle and cash a nice pick while hoping some break out. Looking at the guys drafted between #26 and #39, almost any of those choices I would have been happy with at #25 and/or #35 for Orlando.

Trades:
Either 3 2nds or a 21-30 1st and a 2nd for #25 is a fine gamble, and this is the trade of the two I like. The Brooklyn 2nd is just pushing a pick back two years with minimal to no improvement. Giving up a 2nd for a FO hire I'm never a big fan of, especially as it handcuffs future deals for a year there.

Free Agency:
Everyone else can like the Simmons signing. I see a player who cannot shoot from 3 and is already 28 in a month being added to a rebuild that needs spacing and to bottom out. I guess that he doesn't add spacing might help with the bottoming out, but Simmons is going to be put in a place where he doesn't look his best or help Orlando's youth (Gordon/Isaac/Payton) look their best. Sure, the contract is structured perfectly -- declining, some non gtd money at the end -- and maybe they find a taker that will want Simmons and pay to get him. But I come back to how much more valuable will Simmons be than raw cap space? Given there wasn't a huge free agent demand for him I would have preferred Orlando just take on McRoberts for 5m in cash and a 2nd.

Similarly, what is the goal of Speights and Afflalo? To not be 9 win horrific and instead try for 25 -20 wins? Not that those players can make up that size of a gap, but just in terms of the philosophy. This probably comes down to if you prefer to let rookies thrown into the fire to learn, or have to prove it to eke out minutes from cagey vets that teach them how to be pros. To some extent there is merit to both, and a sense of entitlement has been linked to the development and struggles of MCW and Russell. But Russell was benched during that for instance and MCW had to compete for minutes if not in Philly then certainly afterward; so I'm not convinced that a player isn't who the player is fundamentally in a lot of regards.

So I tend to fall into the throw them into the fire, and if you need them competing for minutes, grab some undrafted 22 year olds and see if those players that are fighting to have an NBA career longer than a week aren't hungrier than Speights, who was known earlier in his career for a lackadaisical attitude and skirmishes with Doug Collins. As such, the free agent signings are a baffling step in the wrong direction, even if a small one.

Mack is the latest non solution at pg for Orlando. He is solid and the contract is nice, but they still have Augustin already behind Payton. A development third pg would have pleased me more, perhaps taken with #35? Either way, I like the Mack signing as backup and the one vet influence on a rebuilding team. It is just that he is not the one vet and rather the whole Orlando roster is a mess and Mack highlights it.

Current Depth Chart: (taken from bbinsiders)
This team needs some trades and to get Isaac as many minutes as possible.

Needs:
To start rebuilding from scratch around Issac and the 2018 pick

Additional Thoughts:
Losing the Lakers 2019 pick really hurt.
This team should be selling off anyone not nailed down as a prime prospect. Which is everyone but Isaac. And yes, I'm including Gordon. What do you do next offseason with Gordon? Match all offers but make him find the market value? I'm not sold that Gordon's development arc is one worth continuing to bet on, versus at least exploring his trade market. Same for Payton, but I think Gordon has a bigger trade market while Payton you probably are better riding him out than cashing in low. Ross for Asik + 2018 1st (lotto protected for 3 years)

Burn it all down and then trade the ashes.

Projected Win/Loss: 27-55

Off-Season Grade: C-
Besides picking Isaac, what was done that was good? Anything? Maybe the #25 for OKC pick trade, but so much mroe was needed, that as much as I love the Isaac pick I'm bringing this all the way down to a C-


Slava wrote:Slava’s Orlando Review

Key Losses:
2019 Lakers 1st
Rob Hennigan

Luck wise, the draft lottery did not go all too well for Orlando as the Lakers benefited from leapfrogging into the top 3, thereby depriving Orlando of an unprotected first in 2019, finally bringing the curtains down on Dwightmare Part 1. As a team that is likely to be cap locked and needs every chance at striking a #1 option at the top of the lottery this is a disappointing loss no matter how the Lakers’ own free agency goes next summer which would determine the quality of that pick.

Not sure if it was owing to ownership pressure or Hennigan being a bad executive but it always felt like Orlando were caught between two roads over the past few seasons. They were making desperate moves to compete, ending up in the lottery while not providing an adequate development environment for the players they draft. The constant coaching changes didn’t help either and probably the wild swing and miss on the Ibaka trade was the final straw to break the camel’s back.

You hope with Hammond and Vogel they finally find stability because they have at least a couple of very intriguing players in Gordon and Issac to move forward with.

Losses:
The constant weird episode of the Orlando summer MLE level contract to a back up PG who invariably disappoints continues with CJ Watson as it did DJ Augustin and the baton is passed to Shelvin Mack.

Zimmerman was a high variance prospect coming into the league and in limited minutes he looked too timid to show a competitive edge against NBA caliber big men. He did reasonably well in G-league but in a center rotation featuring Vucevic and Biyombo who are both likely to stay, there were probably other players notably in the guard rotation that Orlando wanted to take a look with their two way contracts.

Jodie Meeks’ big deal courtesy of one season under D’Antoni finally runs out and everyone’s favorite NBA nomad Jeff Green continues his tour of the land with a fat wallet.

Draft:
To make up for the disappointing result of the lottery, Issac was a solid pick for Orlando as a player with an elite physical profile and defensive potential while being fully versatile on offense. If Vogel is willing to run a high pace, small ball system which utilizes a lot of switching, it would bring the best out of both him and Aaron Gordon.

He might not be the #1 option on offense (20% USG in college) which Orlando desperately lacks but he will be an elite role player who will fill the blanks all over the court and as an immediate need he will help bolster Orlando’s bench unit.

Iwundu is a releatively older prospect with good length and an intriguing offensive game. He might be be buried in the rotation and get a lot of time in the G-league but if he can add polish to his offensive game and develop a consistent 3, he will find his niche as a back up 2/3.

Trades:
I had the 2nd rounder for Weltman as a win for Toronto so I’ll have to mark that as an L here. I’m not sure of the specifics of Weltman’s contract but you’d hope some cash to buy him out of Toronto would have sufficed before surrendering a 2nd rounder which is likely to be 30-40.

I don’t mind them kicking the ball down the road on the rest of the picks as this is already a crowded roster and it would be hard for them to even find playing time for their recent high picks.

The return on #25 does seem a little weak as the OKC pick landing out of the top 20 is very reliant on how the free agency of George and Westbrook goes next summer. I’m not sure if they could have used it on unloading the CJ Watson & Augustin deals instead of using a stretch provision but I’ll leave this to someone else.

Free Agency:

Jonathan Simmons was the kind of signing they did not make before. A capable player signed to a below market deal without tying up future cap flexibility and he will go a long way towards making that second unit more competent.

I like the 3 year contract to the 2nd round pick to get bird rights.

Speights will provide much needed spacing in the front court although I’m not sure where he is going to see his minutes with Vuc, Biyombo taking the lion’s share of minutes at C and Gordon/Issac needing playing time at the 4 but its for the minimum and fills a need.

Afflalo doesn’t really make sense and he did not exactly leave on great terms the last time around either but again can't be critical for finding the NBA’s equivalent of loose change in free agency.

Now to be a a bit more elaborate on the Shelvin Mack signing. Orlando have constantly offered deals to back ups at PG position which kind of makes you wonder how confident they are in their starter.

They have so far been committed to Payton. He is still not remotely close to a reliable floor spacer and on a team like this, that matters. He is a good finisher at the basket but fades pretty badly at anything from mid-range and out. He is due for an extension soon and if Orlando are willing to make the longer term commitment they would have to invest in shooting at other positions to compensate for him rather than adding an additional layer of back up at the same position. I don't think Vogel is certain on what to do here and the arrival of Hammond etc in the new front office could signal a change in loyalties as it often does to players drafted by the previous regime so it will be interesting to see how this unfolds.

Current Depth Chart:
PG: Elfrid Payton, D.J. Augustin, Shelvin Mack
SG: Evan Fournier, Jonathon Simmons, Arron Afflalo, Marcus Georges-Hunt
SF: Terrence Ross, Jonathan Isaac, Mario Hezonja, Patricio Garino, Wesley Iwundu
PF: Aaron Gordon, Marreese Speights, Khem Birch
C: Nikola Vucevic, Bismack Biyombo,

The 2nd unit looks much better than it did last season but the roster still lacks a #1 scoring option. Fournier is not that and neither are Ross or Gordon. I like the idea of Vuc as the 6th man scorer like OKC use Kanter but the lack of scoring in the first unit might prompt them to shift him back into his starting slot.

Needs:
Improvement from the 2nd worst offense of last season
Improvement from 2nd worst 3 pt % from last season
Development from Gordon ahead of his extension time table

Additional Thoughts:
This is still a flawed roster that will struggle to produce offense and suffer from poor spacing. They are coming to extension time for Gordon and Payton and if they choose to go down that route, they would be cap tied for the foreseeable future for a relatively poor team. I think even their defensive rating will take a hit although Vogel is a sound defensive coach.

So at this point you likely have to wonder what other avenues they have to get that quality scorer when they are unlikely to pick high in the lottery and can't be a player in free agency.

Could they have enough to enter the Kyrie sweepstakes with a Gordon + Fournier + future 1sts offer? Would Cleveland even consider that?

If they can get Irving while holding onto Issac they should definitely go for it to avoid the morass of the mid lottery team but I think Cleveland will rightly hold out for an offer that includes both Gordon and Issac.

Projected Win/Loss: 31-51

Off-Season Grade: C


cl2117 wrote:cl2117's Magic Review

Key Losses:
Rob Hennigan (Front Office)

Key in the sense that it represents a big change for the organization, however I think this is a good change. Hennigan was just running out of steam in Orlando. His trades on the whole didn't work out for Orlando, his drafting was mediocre, but the real problem is that they've just been treading water in the bottom half of the league. Bringing in Hammond may give them a jumpstart.

Losses:

They lose nothing with Jeff Green and Damjan Rudez leaving and by stretching CJ Watson. They don't lose much from letting Meeks go, but I think I'd almost prefer him to Mack.

Zimmerman was a bit of a question mark from me. I understand it since he didn't look great, so why waste the money, but I would have given him another year in the G-League before entirely cutting ties.

Draft:

I really liked what they did in the draft. For me Orlando had to nail their first pick and they could have traded the rest for Warriors season tickets and I'd still give them a good draft grade. And boy do I think they nailed their pick.

I'm unsure about Isaac's fit next to Gordon, but he was a guy I could have realistically see going #3 and they had him at #6. His positional flexibility and versatility will work really well on a team without an identity yet. He's got incredible upside and I think it's good that he's in a situation where there won't be pressure for instant production/development.

Iwundu at #33 is a solid pick. Reminds me of the Ojeleye pick I love for the Celtics. Older guy, solid resume, limited upside but seems on track to be at least a competent roleplayer if not more. I think that's a perfect target for the top of the 2nd round.

I'll get more into the trades below, but I don't mind them moving their picks for future assets. From 25 back I think I see a lot of solid guys, but no gems so it's ok by me that they punt. I think they could have benefited from guys like Rabb, Ojeyele, Kuzma, Bolden, but none will be the next Gobert.

Trades:

Always love FO trades just because they're so weird. Hate to be on the side that's shipping out value, but if it brings stability it's worthwhile.

#25 for OKC 2020 (top 20) and NYK/BKN 2020 2nd. That's good value for me. I wasn't crazy on any of the options there at #25. There was plenty of good talent, but no one with a crazy high ceiling. I'm ok with punting that pick down the line with the worst case of it being 3 second round picks.

Ivan Rabb (#35th) for '19 BKN 2nd. This one stings a little for me because Rabb is one of the guys that I really liked in that range as someone with some sneaky upside. Value is fine, but after cutting all that dead weight I thought they had room for another 2nd round flier.

Free Agency:

They stayed out of it for the most part and I commend them for that. It was a bit of a reset year for them with the FO so it makes sense that they keep the decks relatively clear instead of diving right into major moves.

I think the Simmons deal is good. I think it's team friendly money and like that it's declining, 3 years and has a 1m gtd out in the final year. I think he's good enough to elevate this team a bit, but also has upside of his own.

I'm a big fan of overpaying for 2 year deals with the 2nd year not guaranteed, which is essentially what they Mack deal is, but he got a $1m guarantee for year 2. If you're going to overpay for a guard in this market, then the 2nd year better be completely unguaranteed. It doesn't make it a bad signing, but just less appealing. I also wonder if I'd rather Meeks for what he signed in Washington (although I'd rather the 2nd year out).

The rest is solid depth signing at the min, but I'd like to highlight Afflalo as a great pickup. He's a solid vet for a young team, but I could also see him being turned into 2nd round picks if they showcase him before the deadline. At the vet min, it's a really nice addition.

Current Depth Chart: (taken from bbinsiders)

How are they going to use Isaac and Gordon? I think they've got to try running them out there together just to see what kind of chaos their athleticism being paired together can create. I'm not sure if they have the pieces on the roster to compliment that pairing (or if that would work anyway), but I'm hoping to see a lineup of: Payton/Fornier/Isaac/Gordon/Vucevic. I'd love it if there was a better PG and it could be really ugly in a half-court set, but still I think it'd be entertaining.

Needs:
Direction
Breakout performance(s)
A new starting PG
Shooting

Hopefully the new FO can provide this. The Magic have seemed rudderless during Hennigan's tenure far too often. They're now in an interesting position with a lot of talent on the roster, but they've got to add significantly more, grow what they've already got and not hamstring themselves with any boneheaded THJ-esque signings or trades (good job thus far).

They really do have a lot of talent (Gordon, Isaac, Hezonja, Simmons, Payton). But they need at least 1 of those guys to break out. Mario and Elfrid don't look like likely candidates, but I Gordon and Isaac still have really strong chances and I think Simmons could have a Jae Crowder level impact with more minutes. Just one of those guys breaking out would propel them back into relevance.

I really don't think Elf is going to be the guy to breakout. I like him as a project backup PG for another team, but I don't like him as the starter for a team that needs a whole lot more structure than he provides. Would love to see a young Rondo level performance from him to prove me wrong though.

I think they addressed this to some extent with Afflalo, but every team could always use more shooting. Their best young talent is going to struggle with their shots, putting shooters around them is a logical solution.

Additional Thoughts:

I like that they didn't try to do too much. I didn't see this off-season as a huge opportunity for them to make giant leaps forward. They drafted BPA and didn't waste draft assets. They stayed out of the fray in free agency and a sound investment in Simmons. They haven't made any strides, but they get credit for not going backwards. They need to start making some progress now.

Projected Win/Loss: 32-50

I don't expect much improvement, but given what they lost and what they've added I like them breaking into the low 30s. I think the East getting worse contributes, but another year of development plus Simmons will be worth at least 3 wins.

Off-Season Grade: B

It was a solid off-season. I didn't hate anything they did and I loved a couple moves (Isaac and Simmons). Nothing flashy enough to warrant an A, but if my largest complaint is that Mack got $1m guaranteed on his 2nd deal it's certainly worth a B.


BBallFreak wrote:BBallFreak's
Orlando Offseason Review


Key Losses:
None

Losses:
Jeff Green
Jodie Meeks
Damjan Rudez
Stephen Zimmerman
C.J. Watson (stretched)

So the good news is that they didn't lose anything major, here. Green has been awful for years, and nothing else of consequence was left afloat.

Draft:
#6 Jonathan Isaacs
#25 Traded
#33 Wesley Iwundu
#35 Traded

I love the Isaacs pick. A very nice addition to the team. Should be able to play alongside Gordon immediately. Great value and great fit.

Trades:
2018 2nd from Orlando (worst of Orlando and LAL 2nd) for Jeff Weltman (FO)
Anzejs Pasecniks (#25) for '20 OKC 1st (top 20 one shot 2 years after pick to Minnesota) and '20 2nd worst of NYK or NKN
Ivan Rabb (#35th) for '19 BKN 2nd

Free Agency:
Jeff Weltman and John Hammond Front Office
Jonathon Simmons 3/18m (last year 1m gtd, declining deal)
Shelvin Mack 2/12m (last year ungtd)
Jonathan Isaac rookie scale
Wesley Iwundu 3/4m last year TO
Arron Afflalo min
Mo Speights min
Patricio Garino min (275k gtd) {April}
Khem Birch 2 year min (25k gtd)

These are very solid value signings. They didn't compromise their future with any of these deals. and got some very solid value. Simmons, in particular, was a steal for the contract he got. He's also very low risk. Speights should add a solid veteran with championship experience to help bring the kids along, and Afflalo gets the chance to reinvigorate his career in the city he played his best basketball. Mack is another guy who's been there and done that, but has something to offer on the court. These are very solid improvements.

Current Depth Chart:
PG: Elfrid Payton, Shelvin Mack, D.J. Augustin
SG: Evan Fournier, Arron Afflalo, Mario Hezonja, Marcus Georges-Hunt
SF: Terrence Ross, Jonathon Simmons, Patricio Garino, Wesley Iwundu
PF: Aaron Gordon, Jonathan Isaac, Marreese Speights, Khem Birch
C: Bismack Biyombo, Nikola Vucevic

I think, looking at their depth chart, that one of Ross, Afflalo, or Simmons will fall out of the rotation, making room for Isaac as the full time small forward (not necessarily the starter right away), and I think Afflalo is the most likely victim. I also think Speights will see regular time in the rotation once that happens.

Needs:

Development. In order for the team to take the next step, one or two of their younger pieces is going to have to step up and turn into a better player than is currently projected. There are nice role players all over the place on this team, but who steps up and becomes more than that?

The biggest need this team has is an on-court leader. A go-to-guy who carries the team and raises the level of play of those around him.

Additional Thoughts:

This is a team that knows how to rebuild. They're acquiring good young assets and some vets looking to show what they've got for minimal contract dollars. They're not breaking the bank on bad players. They're trying to get smart veteran role players who don't make mistakes, in order to show the youth on the team how to do better.

They're trying to be competitive while not compromising their future.

Projected Win/Loss:
38-45

A solid step forward, and they'll be a tough game for anyone.

Off-Season Grade: Solid B+
I love what they did. Good players on the cheap, drafted well, and no huge contracts. Excellent stuff. They still need a star, but that could be Isaac so no complaints...


bondom34 wrote:Bondom34's Orlando Offseason In Review

Key Losses:
Rob Hennigan (Front Office)

Losses:
Jeff Green
Jodie Meeks
Damjan Rudez
Stephen Zimmerman
C.J. Watson (stretched)

Of all of these I don't see a single negative loss or key loss. Hennigan was past his time after last year's disaster and they needed someone new. Green was as bad as advertised and none of the others are terribly impactful contributors in any positive way. Good to let them all go.

Draft:
#6 Jonathan Isaacs
#25 Traded
#33 Wesley Iwundu
#35 Traded

I don't feel overly strong about the top few after Fultz other than liking what I've seen from Smith Jr. Right now I have no real qualms with Isaac though I would have at least considered going with a point guard I don't have any real issues there. I didn't care for the 25 for 33 and the OKC pick, as I think this draft just has potential to be deeper and I like a few guys left after 25 and even 35 which they traded later (Kuzma, Hart, Bolden, Swanigan, Mason, Olyeye). Just seems like kicking the can pick wise, and I think there were guys to be taken in this draft who may not be that high quality in later drafts.

Trades:
2018 2nd from Orlando (worst of Orlando and LAL 2nd) for Jeff Weltman (FO)
Anzejs Pasecniks (#25) for '20 OKC 1st (top 20 one shot 2 years after pick to Minnesota) and '20 2nd worst of NYK or NKN
Ivan Rabb (#35th) for '19 BKN 2nd

I went over the draft trades above, but the Weltman trade was another I don't love but don't totally hate. I'm glad they got a better guy to run the front office but at what point is it worth what looks like a really high 2nd? I get that it's only a 2nd round pick, but it feels like a little bit much for something of this caliber.

Free Agency:
Jeff Weltman and John Hammond Front Office
Jonathon Simmons 3/18m (last year 1m gtd, declining deal)
Shelvin Mack 2/12m (last year ungtd)
Jonathan Isaac rookie scale
Wesley Iwundu 3/4m last year TO
Arron Afflalo min
Mo Speights min
Patricio Garino min (275k gtd) {April}
Khem Birch 2 year min (25k gtd)

OK, to run through these not entirely but hitting key points. I like the Weltman hire but don't totally love Hammond. The Bucks were essentially a treadmill team that hit huge on Giannis and kept pushing win now moves when they weren't ready to win now. This sounds a ton like Hennigan without Giannis which concerns me but if Weltman is really running the show it hopefully won't be an issue.

Mack was the yearly Magic signing of a backup PG for a bit too much money we've come to know and love, and apparently will be splitting time with Augustin. That's a lot of money for not a lot of minutes for not very good players, and I'd rather have seen a vet min guy here instead personally. The 2nd year is non guaranteed though so it's not a huge demerit or anything, just seems excessive. Simmons is a fine player who could bring some value as a defensive wing in spurts as well.

Speights was a good get and Afflalo for the min I can't hate no matter how much I'm not a fan of his. They played it pretty quiet in free agency which I think was mostly the right move given the new front office and current trajectory.

Current Depth Chart: (taken from bbinsiders)
PG: Elfrid Payton, D.J. Augustin, Shelvin Mack
SG: Evan Fournier, Jonathon Simmons, Arron Afflalo, Marcus Georges-Hunt
SF: Terrence Ross, Mario Hezonja, Patricio Garino, Wesley Iwundu
PF: Aaron Gordon, Jonathan Isaac, Khem Birch
C: Nikola Vucevic, Bismack Biyombo, Marreese Speights


Needs:
Figuring out if Payton is the point guard for this team is a key and getting Hezonja literally any experience. Let the youth play and maybe try to move a big (I don't see anyone touching Biyombo's contract but Vuc should be movable at least).

Additional Thoughts:
This offseason was pretty quiet compared to last year which I think is a plus. I didn't honestly love a lot of what was done but considering the quantity and magnitude of the moves there's nothing here saying it was a poor offseason. Was it great? Nope. Was it flashy? Nope. But it might have been about what they needed given where they're at after Hennigan's final moves.
Projected Win/Loss: 34-48

Off-Season Grade: C+



pacers33granger wrote:pacers33granger Review

Key Losses:
It was time for Hennigan to go. That said, it may be an issue with ownership so it remains to be seen what Weltman can do going forward.

Losses:
Orlando had no real losses this offseason imo.

Draft:
Isaac has the potential to be a special player. Orlando needed to swing for the fences at 6 and they did. Iwundu is nice value where he was picked. I was not a fan of the trade for the OKC first or trading 35 for a 2019 2nd.

Trades:
Again, not a fan of the draft day trades. They both seem slightly light on value given the price teams were willing to pay for picks in that range. I never like the idea of trading picks for GMs and this has the potential to be a high 2nd.

Free Agency:
Even with Hennigan, Orlando continues to perplex with some of their signings. I really like the signing of Gibson. He's older, but could still improve given more experience and may end up being a steal on that contract. Worst case scenario, the last year is only guaranteed for $1 mil. I like Mack as a steady backup vet, but hate that they still have Augustin and just stretched CJ Watson. Afflalo and Speights are fine value for the minimum, but both neither seem like the type of vets you'd really want around for a variety of reasons.

Current Depth Chart: (taken from bbinsiders)
PG: Elfrid Payton, D.J. Augustin, Shelvin Mack
SG: Evan Fournier, Jonathon Simmons, Arron Afflalo, Marcus Georges-Hunt
SF: Terrence Ross, Mario Hezonja, Patricio Garino, Wesley Iwundu
PF: Aaron Gordon, Jonathan Isaac, Khem Birch
C: Bismack Biyombo, Nikola Vucevic, Marreese Speights

Needs:
A direction. I still don't understand signing limited upside vets seemingly every year. Simmons offers some possible upside, but even then it is still limited and somewhat outside of Orlando's timeframe (still really like this signing though). They should be signing cheap young talent to try out.

Additional Thoughts:
I just did not like this offseason. I know they were putting together a new FO and didn't have a ton to work with. That said, Orlando sorely needs one or more of Payton, Gordon, Isaac, or Hezonja to really break out. The problem is that time is running out on Payton and Gordon as they need to make decisions on their longterm future since both are up for new deals. I'm not sure what this team is, but it's looking like it may end up in that dreaded late lotto spot for a few years if things don't fall perfectly.

Projected Win/Loss: 28-54

Off-Season Grade: C-

Re: Orlando offseason in review (HW/Slava/cl2117/bondom34/BBallFreak/pacers33granger)

Posted: Thu Aug 17, 2017 4:33 pm
by loserX
Great reads as always, guys. Seems like a general lack of being impressed with their offseason, and I agree.

Best move: drafting Isaac. I'm not as convinced as some that he's the best player in the draft, but he was ahead of the guys drafted after him. So some credit at least for taking BPA and not getting cute. (Possible alternate answer: firing Rob Hennigan. Very poor roster construction and decision-making led the team to getting stuck where they are. Getting rid of him was the right move.)

Worst move: the draft day trades. This team needs young talent...why are they deferring picks?

The free agency was also curious: as I said at the time, signing Mack was a fine move...if they needed him. But they don't, so it isn't. It's clear DeVos wants to win, but the organization is making some of the same mistakes they made under Hennigan, inexplicably signing low-grade veterans that won't help much. At least they're not wildly overpaying the way Hennigan often did.

I'm going with a C-/D+. Hard to give a great grade when their good moves consisted of "not screwing up your first pick" and firing a bad GM.

Re: Orlando offseason in review (HW/Slava/cl2117/bondom34/BBallFreak/pacers33granger)

Posted: Thu Aug 17, 2017 5:21 pm
by giberish
I agree with the other posters that their #25-35 part of the draft was poor. They didn't even get good value deferring picks (usually you can get a better future pick from an impatient GM in those sorts of moves.

Why not just keep Pasecniks at #25 - you wouldn't need the roster spot anyway.
Why not draft Jawun Evans at #35 - you don't need to sign Mack.

Perhaps the most extreme example of short-term thinking from a lotto team was stretch-waiving Watson. Why??? Now you've got Watson on the books for extra years into the future.

Re: Orlando offseason in review (HW/Slava/cl2117/bondom34/BBallFreak/pacers33granger)

Posted: Thu Aug 17, 2017 5:23 pm
by Statlanta
RE: last season's offseason thread
After last season I believe the fanbase hit a turn of hard reality of not expecting immediate improvement after a retool(with a clear defensive turn in acquiring Vogel, Ibaka, Gordon, Biyombo)

Win totals before last season
20
23
25
35

I think that win total growth lead to improved expectations across the whole fanbase over last season's big offseason which ultimately lead to the disappointing 29 win season.

RE: this off season
Personally I think it's a C off-season
Upgrading the bench and waiting to check what you want to keep from the old regime doesn't seem like it set the team back in what it wants to do nor does it seem like we went a clear-cut direction.

Re: Orlando offseason in review (HW/Slava/cl2117/bondom34/BBallFreak/pacers33granger)

Posted: Thu Aug 17, 2017 5:39 pm
by Mystical Apples
What HW said with a diiffering conclusion. Swapping Hennigan was a clear victory. Isaac should've gone top 4 to Boston or Phoenix. Subtracting Jeff Green is never a bad thing but then......

Orlando turned around and signed Afflalo who is Jeff Green-lite. Simmons lacks anything resembling an above average halfcourt offensive skill -- I absolutely hate his fit. Mack was a head scratcher too.

A few weeks ago I was prepared to hammer Orlando's offseason but with hindsight have softened my stance. For the *Isaac and Hennigan transactions alone they deserve an A, factoring the subsequent nonsense a B- overall. Going with 31 wins and an outside crack at the 8th seed.

* Love the possibilities of Isaac and Gordon together.

Re: Orlando offseason in review (HW/Slava/cl2117/bondom34/BBallFreak/pacers33granger)

Posted: Thu Aug 17, 2017 5:41 pm
by dakomish23
Did they need to stretch Watson to make room for Simmons?

Looking forward to watching a Simmons Gordon Isaac lineup at some point.

Re: Orlando offseason in review (HW/Slava/cl2117/bondom34/BBallFreak/pacers33granger)

Posted: Thu Aug 17, 2017 8:05 pm
by jbent87
I just don't know why this team seems so content in keeping this Elf/Aaron Gordon duo together. Both are tremendously flawed players being passed off as cornerstones. Sell high on the AG upside while you still can and hit reset already.

Re: Orlando offseason in review (HW/Slava/cl2117/bondom34/BBallFreak/pacers33granger)

Posted: Thu Aug 17, 2017 8:23 pm
by pennypennypenny
Quiet off-season I kinda like it. But they need a specific direction and with the additions of Simmons and Speights, Vucevic and one between Fournier/Ross become expendable. Try to move them at the right price and receive some youngs/picks and roll with the youth. Maybe Vucevic for Joe Johnson, '18 1st and Fournier for Asik, Diallo, '19 1st ? I'll be quite satisfied

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Orlando offseason in review (HW/Slava/cl2117/bondom34/BBallFreak/pacers33granger)

Posted: Thu Aug 17, 2017 8:49 pm
by jayjaysee
I think I get deferring the picks to avoid wasting cheap labor on years it doesn't matter? They could still have drafted stash guys.. But if they didn't like any of them, delaying the cheap contracts a couple years when money could be tight is not a bad idea.. Not that it will be tight in 3 years, but it could be..

I think it's a B-...

I like Isaac and the team could have passed on him for fit issues.. So I credit them for getting him instead of forgetting where they are at this season and going for DSj/Frank or trading back... I like moving on from Henne, clearly his plan/vision had not worked out for the team..

So those are two things that should impact the team a great deal more than trading out of later picks or small money free agents.

I do want to dock them a bit for not trading Vooch.. Or one of Ross/Evan. Or Mario if they weren't going to trade one of Ross/Evan.. I feel like one of those 3 wings should have been traded as at least one will lose value throughout the season IMO. Either Mario won't play and that last bit of mystique will be gone and he'll be salary filler next season.. Or JI/Mario will take Ross' minutes and Ross will go back to the eh overpaid 8th man we all view(ed) him as..

Vooch, maybe not fair to suggest since there isn't an example of a decent center being valued this offseason.. But his value isn't going to go up either, I'd like to have at least heard a rumor..

So I dock them a bit for being inactive there.. Same as I dock my Mavs, except at least Dallas didn't sit on players with value.. We don't have any of those /

The free agent adds.. I don't like or hate. They're very average. Which is what makes it a B- instead of better based on JI and Henne. I'd rather have 2 D-league / undrafted guys and 2 of the 4 (Mack/AAA/Simmons/Mo).. I don't care which two, just not four meh veterans. Not needed. There's value in keeping roster spots for Yogi or Rocco. Clearly it usually doesn't work out, but if you're rebuilding it doesn't matter.

I don't dock their offseason for the Lakers tanking...

The first 25 games will tell if it's chasing 8 or trading Evan + Vuc and tanking. Which might be why they sat on them thus far


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Re: Orlando offseason in review (HW/Slava/cl2117/bondom34/BBallFreak/pacers33granger)

Posted: Thu Aug 17, 2017 9:04 pm
by Slava
jbent87 wrote:I just don't know why this team seems so content in keeping this Elf/Aaron Gordon duo together. Both are tremendously flawed players being passed off as cornerstones. Sell high on the AG upside while you still can and hit reset already.


I think Gordon in the right team could be a great player. I'd love him on the Lakers running in an uptempo system with Ball and switching 1-5 on defense. He's not going to handle the ball or make plays but he is an extremely versatile player if developed correctly and not dicked around at SF.

Re: Orlando offseason in review (HW/Slava/cl2117/bondom34/BBallFreak/pacers33granger)

Posted: Thu Aug 17, 2017 9:22 pm
by j-ragg
Only thing I really hated about our offseason was trading 25/35. 25 especially, for a 33% chance at a first round pick in a few years woohoo.

Surprised more don't think DSJ should've been the pick. I'm fine with Isaac, but this team needs a young go-to guy in the worst way and he would've fit the bill.

Re: Orlando offseason in review (HW/Slava/cl2117/bondom34/BBallFreak/pacers33granger)

Posted: Thu Aug 17, 2017 10:29 pm
by BBallFreak
A bunch of very quality reviews up there, and though or opinions differ on several points, really good reads. Nice work everyone!

Re: Orlando offseason in review (HW/Slava/cl2117/bondom34/BBallFreak/pacers33granger)

Posted: Fri Aug 18, 2017 1:37 am
by Texas Chuck
j-ragg wrote:

Surprised more don't think DSJ should've been the pick. I'm fine with Isaac, but this team needs a young go-to guy in the worst way and he would've fit the bill.


Agree the team desperately needs a go-to guy, but I'd rather take the potentially elite glue guy than take a go-to guy that I'm not sold on. Worse case scenario Jared Dudley is a useful piece. Brandon Knight isn't.

Obviously I hope Junior is better than Knight and I feel certain Isaac is going to be really good --my 2nd favorite player in the entire draft after Fultz, but speaking more to the larger point. If you take a guy who projects to only really help you as a primary option guy, then he needs to have the potential to be special at that. I'm not convinced Smith is that guy so I would have gone Isaac 100% especially knowing the Magic are going to be right back at the top of the draft next year as well.

Re: Orlando offseason in review (HW/Slava/cl2117/bondom34/BBallFreak/pacers33granger)

Posted: Fri Aug 18, 2017 1:56 am
by Mystical Apples
As a general rule always draft the player who most resembles Andrei Kirilenko, no matter how unrealistic that may be. I had Isaac and Smith 3/4 but you gotta grab Isaac.

Re: Orlando offseason in review (HW/Slava/cl2117/bondom34/BBallFreak/pacers33granger)

Posted: Fri Aug 18, 2017 1:57 am
by Trader_Joe
I like Isaac, but also would have been more excited with JJ or JT if they fell or were reasonable. They need Gordon to be their PF or they are in even worse shape. Isaac will be a PF as all 6"10/11 players are, and the league is shrinking so there is overlap. If their SF pick is the real deal and AG breaks out they are a P.O. team.
But it might not have been an option.

Overall, I expected more shake up.

Re: Orlando offseason in review (HW/Slava/cl2117/bondom34/BBallFreak/pacers33granger)

Posted: Fri Aug 18, 2017 9:58 am
by drsd
Magic fan here: the consensus is that Orlando is a better team than last year. That means a B-grade. Ranking in at C makes no sense. C-means the team is the same as it was. (D and F means the team is worse: the Knicks, Pacers, Hawks: for example).

For me the depth chart is:
Payton/Mack/Augustin
Fournier/Ross/Afflalo
Simmons/Isaac/Iwundu
Gordon/Speights/Hezonja
Vučević/Biyombo/Birch


A couple notes: when Ross and Fournier play together, Fournier is the SF. I really do not understand why all media lists Ross as a SF, as he did not play SF last year; Fournier did.

Coach Vogel is widely quoted that Hezonja's best chance for the Magic (last chance?) is at PF. Looking at the wing depth, it is the only place he will log any minutes.

Vučević will start. For me it is madness for me to read posts of Biyombo starting.

Iwundu will spend most of the season in Lakeland and Birch's guarantee is below the threshold allowing the Magic to 2-way him. (In other words, the Magic will have a 14-man roster with only 13 players typically in Orlando).


..

Re: Orlando offseason in review (HW/Slava/cl2117/bondom34/BBallFreak/pacers33granger)

Posted: Fri Aug 18, 2017 10:33 am
by Skybox
drsd wrote:Magic fan here: the consensus is that Orlando is a better team than last year. That means a B-grade. Ranking in at C makes no sense. C-means the team is the same as it was. (D and F means the team is worse: the Knicks, Pacers, Hawks: for example).

For me the depth chart is:
Payton/Mack/Augustin
Fournier/Ross/Afflalo
Simmons/Isaac/Iwundu
Gordon/Speights/Hezonja
Vučević/Biyombo/Birch


A couple notes: when Ross and Fournier play together, Fournier is the SF. I really do not understand why all media lists Ross as a SF, as he did not play SF last year; Fournier did.

Coach Vogel is widely quoted that Hezonja's best chance for the Magic (last chance?) is at PF. Looking at the wing depth, it is the only place he will log any minutes.

Vučević will start. For me it is madness for me to read posts of Biyombo starting.

Iwundu will spend most of the season in Lakeland and Birch's guarantee is below the threshold allowing the Magic to 2-way him. (In other words, the Magic will have a 14-man roster with only 13 players typically in Orlando).


..

I agree with all of this...Nothing went well last year, no core player had their best year...Chemistry and team personality alone can make a huge difference with this team. They added unspectacular players who, collectively, should help some with those intangibles. They were way better on paper than hardwood last year...Things could click with some continuity and culture change.

Having said that, B is fair for steady, non-splashy improvements without digging any financial holes. Could end up being much higher if 2 or 3 show marked improvement (plenty of room for that if Vogel is Coach of the Year instead of a big question mark again) due to an offseason of "enhancing" not destroying.

Re: Orlando offseason in review (HW/Slava/cl2117/bondom34/BBallFreak/pacers33granger)

Posted: Fri Aug 18, 2017 2:21 pm
by jbent87
Slava wrote:
jbent87 wrote:I just don't know why this team seems so content in keeping this Elf/Aaron Gordon duo together. Both are tremendously flawed players being passed off as cornerstones. Sell high on the AG upside while you still can and hit reset already.


I think Gordon in the right team could be a great player. I'd love him on the Lakers running in an uptempo system with Ball and switching 1-5 on defense. He's not going to handle the ball or make plays but he is an extremely versatile player if developed correctly and not dicked around at SF.


sure, so send him to LA where there are some nice young pieces where he can slide in and not have to have the pressure of being something he's not. Keeping him on this ORL team waiting for him to become Blake Griffin and then building around that isn't ever going to happen. Give the keys to the car to Jonathan Isaac and hit reset. Like for real though.

Re: Orlando offseason in review (HW/Slava/cl2117/bondom34/BBallFreak/pacers33granger)

Posted: Fri Aug 18, 2017 2:24 pm
by Woody Allen
I don't think you can "sell high" on Aaron Gordon. He's just a very low ceiling player and that's obvious to everyone. I don't think anyone is offering anything significant for him.

Re: Orlando offseason in review (HW/Slava/cl2117/bondom34/BBallFreak/pacers33granger)

Posted: Fri Aug 18, 2017 2:55 pm
by tiderulz
Trader_Joe wrote:I like Isaac, but also would have been more excited with JJ or JT if they fell or were reasonable. They need Gordon to be their PF or they are in even worse shape. Isaac will be a PF as all 6"10/11 players are, and the league is shrinking so there is overlap. If their SF pick is the real deal and AG breaks out they are a P.O. team.
But it might not have been an option.

Overall, I expected more shake up.


why cant he be a center at 6'10/6'11?