Atlanta Offseason Review
Key Losses:
Paul Millsap
Dwight Howard
Losses:
Tim Hardaway Jr
Mike Dunleavy
Jamal Crawford
Diamond Stone
Ryan Kelly
Thabo Sefolosha,
Jose Calderon
Kris Humphries.
Draft:
#19 John Collins
#31 traded away
#41 Tyler Dorsey
#60 Alpha Kaba (stashed)
Trades:
Dwight Howard and #31st for Miles Plumlee, Marco Belinelli and #41
Ryan Kelly for $75,000.
Wash '19 2nd for Jamal Crawford, Diamond Stone, $1.3m and '18 Hou 1st (top 3 prot) -- Not a S&T of Milsap
Free Agency:
Dewayne Dedmon 2/14m (last year PO)
Mike Muscala 2/10m (last year PO)
Ersan Ilyasova 1/6m
John Collins rookie scale
Tyler Dorsey 2/2.2m
Luke Babbitt 1/2m (partially gtd)
Claimed Nicolas Brussino off waivers
Current Depth Chart: (taken from bbinsiders)
PG: Dennis Schröder, Malcolm Delaney
SG: Kent Bazemore, Marco Belinelli, Tyler Dorsey
SF: DeAndre’ Bembry, Luke Babbitt, Taurean Prince, Nicolas Brussino
PF: Ersan Ilyasova, Mike Muscala, John Collins
C: Dewayne Dedmon, Miles Plumlee
HartfordWhalers wrote:HartfordWhalers Review
Key Losses:
Milsap is a great player. Given the contract he signed with Denver, I would have kept him on Atlanta, directional needs not withstanding. And then flipped him in December. But it is quite possible it would have taken more to keep him, and Atlanta needed to pull the plug and begin rebuilding seriously and not just retooling around the aging vet core that could sustain playoff appearances (10 in a row) but once there could not get over that hump (only 1 ECF appearance and that was a sweep).
Not trading Milsap last December or January or February was shortsighted. If you are going to cash out of a good player, cashing out with a trade and assets back is definitely preferable to watching him walk after a first round out in the playoffs that fooled no one. Like getting #12 for Teague previously.
Howard is another key loss. He is a starting center in the NBA, and was just dumped for a bad contract with no obvious replacement on the Atlanta roster besides Dedmon.
I have no problem with anyone including Tim Hardaway Jr here, but to me he is a one dimensional shooter that is easily replaced.
Losses:
The sheer number of players who have left the team is as noteworthy as any of them individually. Atlanta is a new team. And for a system team, reliant on Coach Bud to maximize his players this isn't a good sign. Unless you are trying to tank, in which case it makes sense everything they did.
Draft:
Collins became a hype train during summer league. Long term I'm going to be the guy that points out that the whole summer league stats have a low correlation with regular season stats doesn't just apply to your favorite team's underperforming rookie, but a guy like Collins as well. I'm curious to see if Collins can hold onto this hype, or if the flaws hat made him available at #19 emerge in the more structured setting of regular season ball -- questionable defensive ability and an underwhelming wingspan. And to that point, will he become a center or a power forward? Instinctively I'm taking the under and as a pf
Atlanta has gone for draft picks with college production over raw measurables the past several drafts, and Dorsey fits that as well. Here is what I said last draft of Prince/Bembry:
"They probably would have made some people very happy taking Skal and Dejounte Murray types and going for a home run with at least one pick. But they might just get two solid singles." So far it hasn't produced a heck of a lot yet, but this year there will be more evidence to weigh in on, and it is possible that Collins or Dorsey could be more than a single. I'm excited about Alpha Kaba being in the NBA someday.
Trades:
Whats worse than an F? An F-. The Dwight trade was an F-. Worse player. Worse contract. Worse pick. Only reason to make that trade is to be sure you can out tank everyone?
Crawford's buyout made the other trade a slam dunk to me however. Houston first will probably be 27 or so, but the dead money is just (per bb insiders):
Jamal Crawford (waived) $10,942,762 $2,304,226
Diamond Stone (waived) $1,312,611
So, it is almost all this year, and less than 15m to get a late 1st (while surrendering a 50 or so 2nd). I have that trade as one very bottom 8 team should be doing.
75k for Kelly is as negligible of a trade as you can get, without involving two players subsequently waived (Dinwiddie for Bairstow).
Free Agency:
I think Ersan and Dedmon could be useful players. These guys might be flippable, although the player option on Dedmon is something I wouldn't be cray about. Muscala is the classic marginal youth overvalued by his own team. It isn't tragic in any way, and might be quietly nice. But I wish they had gone for more youth or done one more salary dump. Still, if Atlanta were graded just on its free agency this might be a B-.
Current Depth Chart: (taken from bbinsiders)
Looks a huge whole at center with everyone stacked at pf in the bbinsiders depth chart. I would expect some of Muscala/Collins to get center time.
Needs:
The #1 pick in the 2018 draft.
Additional Thoughts:
Conditional draft picks -- The Minnesota pick looks like it will convey this year, while the 2019 Cavs pick is suddenly looking like it might be 1-10 and thus not convey assuming Lebron leaves. It might be time to cash out of that pick, if they can do it right.
Dennis Schröder -- I would flip him for rebuilding value if you can, this Atlanta rebuild will be a long one.
Projected Win/Loss: 22-60
Off-Season Grade: D+ Did get the one salary dump trade I liked, but blew the Dwight trade. Trying to get NYK to bite on a S&T for THjr would have been better for both teams than getting nothing for him and NYK astronomically overpaying. Getting nothing for Milsap, who signed cheap elsewhere looks bad even when the direction is good. If C is average, this is below average. Lets go D+ over C-, keeping in mind I'm not swayed by 5 summer league games of Collins yet and they didn't gain much at all while bleeding talent.
Slava wrote:Slava’s Atlanta Hawks Review
Key Losses:
Millsap somehow becomes a player who left two teams without netting anything in return while being widely acclaimed to be one of the consensus best forwards in the NBA both by eye test and advanced metrics. He led the team in net rating last season amongst players to have received considerable playing time and ranked 14th league wide, 3rd amongst PFs in RPM. His signing in free agency from Utah was instrumental in the turn around for Atlanta alongside hiring of Budenholzer, so his loss firmly turns a chapter for the Hawks.
Its never a good idea to be trading a player a year after signing him in free agency especially to a very expensive contract and the return is almost always poor. So the Howard trade is predictably a bad outcome for the Hawks. Dwight isn’t lose to the same level of offensive player he was in his prime but he is still a solid defender who is aware of offering help in the right situations. However he looked apathetic and to sound cliched, very soft and got benched for a majority of critical 4th quarter minutes in the playoffs after what I assume is disagreements with Budenholzer. So it might have been a situation of cutting off the flesh wound before letting the infection spread to the vital organs here.
Losses:
Hardaway and Sefolosha were 4th and 6th amongst minutes played for the Hawks. Hardaway rehabbed his value quite well in Atlanta and led the team in offensive rating amongst players to have seen considerable minutes but the money he got from NYK makes passing on bringing him back a no-brainer, especially with the money already owed to Bazemore and the franchise clearly opting to go for a bottoming-out approach.
A 32 year old Sefolosha doesn’t fit the direction either.
Kelly could have been a good reclamation project after showing some early promise under D’Antoni as a stretch 4 in his rookie year in LA but he seems to have never recovered from the Byron Scott experience.
Draft:
Collins at #19 was a fantastic outcome for the Hawks to get a player who still has lottery potential in the mid-late first round. His activity, energy level and offensive polish makes him a very good prospect for a coach like Bud to mold into a modern NBA big man and welcome relief after what likely was a year with a stubborn Howard. If he can extend his range, his offensive game would go a long way to elevate what was a bottom 5 offense last season in the long term especially if the front office continues to stick with Schroeder as the PG.
Trades:
Like mentioned before, the year after signing a free agent to a big contract is probably the worst time to find a trade as you will either get bad value in return or more often need to add sweeteners to move the salary owed. The Hawks unfortunately took the struck the double whammy here by getting a worse player with a longer contract in Plumlee and Belinelli while having to add a high second rounder to make it palatable for the Hornets. Unless Howard was truly poisoning the well, this trade makes absolutely zero sense. Even if the idea was to lose as many games as possible they could simply have run pick and rolls around Howard and Schroeder with zero spacing around them or posted up Howard 20 times a game and arrived at the same result.
Free Agency:
Dedmon was a shrewd signing for the price especially if Collins is not ready to shoulder heavy minutes and Muscala should retain some value in trade if they want to go that route so bringing him back is decent business.
Not sure why they would not offer a 3rd year to the late 2nd rounder.
Current Depth Chart:
PG: Dennis Schröder, Malcolm Delaney
SG: Kent Bazemore, Marco Belinelli, Tyler Dorsey
SF: DeAndre’ Bembry, Luke Babbitt, Taurean Prince, Nicolas Brussino
PF: Ersan Ilyasova, Mike Muscala
C: Dewayne Dedmon, John Collins, Miles Plumlee
I think they should go ahead and play Collins at C as much as possible and let him get used to running PnRs with Schroeder right away. Otherwise they could use some depth at PG. I do like the depth of young wings here.
Needs:
Lottery luck
Development from their young wings and Collins
Additional Thoughts:
After choosing to stay competitive and not missing the playoffs since 06-07, this will finally be the season the Hawks will bottom out and draft in the high end of the lottery.
Long term they should critically evaluate if Schroeder is their long term answer at PG because an offense run by him in his first year as a starter ended up 27th in the league, a full 4 points per 100 possessions worse than league average.
Projected Win/Loss:23-59
Off-Season Grade:D
bondom34 wrote:Bondom34's Atlanta Offseason Review
Key Losses:
Losses:
Well this is pretty much the whole team now isn't it. I don't mind the idea of blowing it up and rebuilding, but man the way they did it. We'll get to more of it later, but there was a lot to get into here.
Draft:
I don't love Collins, but don't overly hate the pick either. I think I'd take a risk with Giles first or even OG or a wing. They needed pretty much anything and I'd have taken a swing at 19 with a guy with more upside.
Trades:
OK, here's where it started to go wrong. The Howard trade was just a disaster. I can't say anything good about it, they took back more money and worse players and gave up a better pick. It was the antithesis of what you'd like to do in a trade. I get wanting to move on but taking back Plumlee wasn't the way to do it. As for the not sign and trade of Milsap it's not awful but then is still taking a bad contract with a pick and a little cash, less than what Dallas got for McBob who I think is a better contract.
Free Agency:
I like the Dedmon deal, he looked solid for the Spurs and Bud could probably help with the system there, and Muscala's deal is a steal if a bit short. Ersan is a fine placeholder, and there's nothing else of much note here.
Current Depth Chart: (taken from bbinsiders)
PG: Dennis Schröder, Malcolm Delaney
SG: Kent Bazemore, Marco Belinelli, Tyler Dorsey
SF: DeAndre’ Bembry, Luke Babbitt, Taurean Prince, Nicolas Brussino
PF: Ersan Ilyasova, Mike Muscala, John Collins
C: Dewayne Dedmon, Miles Plumlee
Needs:
Literally everything. I'm not high on Schroeder, Bazemore's overpaid and had a bad year, Prince is probably the most promising young wing, and if the BBI depth chart is correct the frontcourt is awful.
Additional Thoughts:
I said it all above, but in general I have no problem with blowing it up, it just didn't feel like it was done right here.
Projected Win/Loss: 24-58
Off-Season Grade: D+
Mamba4Goat wrote: Mamba4Goat Atlanta Offseason Review
Key Losses:
I think the biggest loss here is holding on to Millsap too long and not trading him. The Hawks were treadmilling, let Horford walk, traded Korver away, and have a small plethora of youngsters. It makes sense to start a rebuilding with the minimal growth potential they had and the age of Millsap/Horford/Howard. They could have easily got a decent first or a good youngster if they traded Millsap last year. I think the opportunity cost there hurt and it showed why Bud needed to step down as GM.
Howard needed to be move with Millsap gone because keeping an aging star like him on a rebuilding team wouldn't make sense and he would be very vocal on his will to leave and a locker room distraction. Better to hit that before it became an issue. I'll talk about his trade later on.
Losses:
I don't blame them for not matching Hardaway, waiving Crawford, or letting Thabo walk. Hardaway, though he had a nice season, got paid way too much. It was a good move not matching. Crawford was just in a move to get a 1st. The Hawks aren't competing this year, may as well get a 1st for eating a little salary. Lastly Thabo is a personal favorite but his age didn't make sense for a rebuilding team. The rest were replaceable or irrelevant.
Draft:
Collins was a good grab, and could be a steal. I really like that pick. I don't agree with the 31st getting traded and I don't know much on Dorsey or Kaba so I'll leave it at that.
Trades:
Man, the Dwight trade was rough. I don't know who he pissed off but uffda. They moved down 10 spots to take on a bad contract and Belinelli. Howard will be huge for Charlotte this year and it's crazy that they didn't even include a first in this deal.
I'm glad they were able to help in Morey's crazy scheming and offered up Laker legend Ryan Kelly. It was good easy cash at least.
Getting a pick and wasting salary to waive Jamal Crawford was a good move too imo. I would rather do that than overpay in FA and there were plenty of teams in the salary dump for a pick market too.
Free Agency:
I like the signings of Ersan and Dedmon. They are good place holders and easy future tradable deals for contenders or trials for the team. I think they'll have good seasons though. No big deals or risky deals either, just nice small, short term deals. Don't mind this at all.
Current Depth Chart: (taken from bbinsiders)
I'm intrigued by this team, and they seem like sellers at the trade deadline. I think Atlanta will truly start a rebuild next year and play up values this year and get a few future assets.]
Needs:
A back up point guard, flipping a few guys for future assets, and to restart.
Additional Thoughts:
Call me crazy but I've got a few tangents to go off on here. First off, I think Atlanta will be in the playoffs this year. Bud is really good and gets the best out of his guys. I think they could rebuild the value of a few players and trade them mid season, or keep them and take 7 seed. They're my weird dark horse for the playoffs team.
Secondly, I think it's time to replace Bud. Let him do his thing this year, and at the years end trade him away to a team that could use his brilliance and get a coach to rebuild around. He's too good and will make the team too competitive unless you absolutely bottom out.
Lastly, I think they should bring in Hinkie. Even if they keep Bud, I think they'd benefit a lot from Hinkie and they don't need to rebuild or go nuclear with him, but he'll shake things up and set them up for success.
Projected Win/Loss: 41-41 Seventh/Eighth seed. They're going to be under the radar, weirdly good. I could be wrong but they're the Spurs east. I have learned not to doubt them.
Off-Season Grade: C The Dwight trade was awful, letting Millsap walk for nothing was also a bad move. There was some good, but I don't like their off season. It could've been better.
pacers33granger wrote:pacers33granger Review
Key Losses:
Losing Millsap was the final nail for this Hawks roster. It was inevitable so hard to fault them. Dumping Dwight was sensible if they knew Millsap was gone. I have THJ as a key loss here too. No way they could/should have matched that contract, but he was looking like a nice wing for Bud going forward.
Losses:
A lot more inconsequential losses here. Most of these aren't even NBA players at this point, as evidenced by the fact that most have not signed anywhere yet and the ones who have are end of the bench insurance guys.
Draft:
Scooping up Collins at 19 was a good upside pick. Lucky for Atlanta he shares agents with PG, otherwise I feel Indy may have grabbed him. Dorsey seems like decent value at 41.
Trades:
I'm fine with trading Dwight. I'm not fine with moving back in the 2nd and taking on Miles Plumlee. At the least I feel they should have gotten a contract that expires when Dwight's does. Odds are Plumlee gets a lot of minutes so it will be interesting to see if he can regain any semblance of form from Phoenix.
Eating Crawford's money was expensive, but is something Atlanta should be doing to get picks, so I liked that trade.
Free Agency:
I don't understand a single signing Atlanta made. Dedmon and Ilyasova were nice value signings, but I'd prefer to see that money go to someone who could possibly develop into a longterm piece later on. Same for Babbitt. Muscala's deal seems fine, but I can't see any other team offering the same deal.
Current Depth Chart: (taken from bbinsiders)
Needs:
Young talent. Schroder, Collins, Bembery, and Prince are nice, but none have super high upside. The rest of the roster is largely forgettable outside of a couple of decent role players.
Additional Thoughts:
I don't understand the Hawks offseason. Trading Dwight was fine if they felt the need just to get rid of him even if they had to pay to do so. Losing Millsap seemed inevitable so it's hard to dock them there. But I don't understand signing Ilyasova and Dedmon for this roster. The only thing I liked about the Hawks offseason was getting Collins at their pick and getting the Houston pick. I have Atlanta as one of the worst teams in the East this year and that's a good thing for them going forward.
Projected Win/Loss: 26-56
Off-Season Grade: D
Jamaaliver wrote:Jamaaliver's Review
Key Losses:
Paul Millsap
Tim Hardaway Jr.
Thabo Sefolosha
Losses:
Draft:
Trades:
Free Agency:
Role players and projects like
-Dwayne Dedmon
-Luke Babbitt
-Nic Brussino
-Quinn Cook
-Josh Magette (2 way deal)
Resigned
-Mike Muscala
-Ersan Ilyasova
Current Depth Chart: (taken from bbinsiders)
PG: D Schroder/ M Delaney/ Q Cook
SG: Bazemore/ M Belinelli/ D Bembry/ T Dorsey
SF: T Prince/ Nic Brussino/ L Babbitt
PF: Ilyasova/ Muscala/ J Collins
C: Dedmon/ Plumlee/
Needs:
Veteran leadership
Proven scorers
Patience
Additional Thoughts:
While Philly has 'The Process', ATL now has 'Investing in our future' as the rallying cry for the years long rebuild that awaits. Bembry and Prince will get plenty of opportunities to prove themselves. Collins will eventually play his way into the rotation.
The Hawks made the postseason every year for the last decade, but little hardware or tangible accomplishments beyond that. As such, the new ownership (in their second offseason in charge) made massive front office changes and brought in Travis Schlenk from Golden State to oversee the rebuild. This team should be scrappy and play fast. But for the upcoming season, they are likely an afterthought in an underwhelming Eastern Conference.
Keep an eye out for any signs of dissension between Current head of Basketball Ops Schlenk and former Pres of Basketball Ops Mike Budenholzer, who is still the head coach
Projected Win/Loss: 26-56
The GM seems okay with missing the playoffs. The coach, notoriously, is as competitive as they come. This feels like a 26 win season. Don't be surprised if the front office ships out some of the more proven players mid season for future assets...as further investment in the future.
Off-Season Grade: C
The new GM made the necessary, though admittedly painful, decision to let Paul Millsap go without an offer in Free Agency. No matter what we call it, this is the first step in a rebuild that he hopes only takes 2 or 3 years. Collins looks like a steal from the draft. Value signings of Muscala, Dedmon and Ilyasova provide some on court stability.
Millsap's production can be replaced, but the leadership void in the locker room has not. It could be a rocky year in the locker room and the front office.
Geaux_Hawks wrote:Geaux_Hawks' review
Key Losses:
Losing our best player to Free agency will leave a bit of a sting to the organization as a whole. The fans will miss him for sure. With that said, most, if not all have come to the realization that Sap was just simply too old, and we needed a youth movement.
Losing Howard won't be as big of an impact as Sap, but losing a starter period isn't a good thing. Like Sap though, we're not worried, as we needed a youth movement.
In my eyes, losing Tim Hardaway Jr. was a key loss. He was a young scorer, who had finally seemed to turn a corner. Whether or not that corner was worth the contract he got, I'm not sure of. We will have to wait and see if he can live up to that contract, but I think the Knicks won't be as disappointed as other seem to think they will.
Our key losses aren't that devastating as it seems. Once again, we needed a youth movement, and essentially we are in tank mode now. THJ was the only young guy lost worthwhile, but a huge overpay justify letting him go despite his RFA status.
Key additions:
Travis Schlenk. Taking Bud's GM powers away and allowing him to focus on coaching was probably the biggest addition by subtract and Schlenk seems to have an idea of what we need to do to become a relevant name around the league. This move seems to have at least given us better structure in the Front office.
John Collins has been out making a name for himself since being drafted. As of now, I don't see him as a piece that will carry us on his own, but I do see him as a guy sticking around for many years in Atlanta.
Drafting Tyler Dorsey was a solid move as well. A nice addition as a combo guard off the bench. I think he will thrive in that role, and be a key piece moving forward also. Dewayne Dedmon could generate some value for the team as either a long term fixture, or a decent trade chip.
Often overlooked as an addition, I see the salary benefits of breaking Howard's contract down into 2 cheaper, and easier to move guys as an addition. Marco Belinelli is more likely a piece to be moved than Miles Plumlee, but at the very least, we turn one big contract into 2 smaller ones. That opens up flexibility.
The rest are just filler. Once again, we're in rebuild/tank mode, and these moves seemed to reflect that. No long term money spent, flexibility gained, a few young additions, and a squad built to possibly land in the top 5 of the lottery.
Needs & Additional thoughts:
We need a lot of everything with PG being excluded. Dennis should hopefully take a big step next year. A wildcard could be Taurean Prince. He could end up taking a big leap and becoming something better than what we expected, or at the very least step up and be a good glue guy.
I think we need a higher upside guy on the wings anyway. As I alluded to with Collins, I don't think we have an answer in the Front-court. Fortunately, I do believe we are in position to add a premium talent next year in the draft.
Wins/Losses: 30-52I think we win no more than 30 games next year.
Conclusion: B+
From the perspective of what we want to do, I think we can say this off-season is a B+. We didn't get a young super stud, but we got some quality youth pieces, and didn't spend a ton of money. Ultimately letting our potential high salary guys walk, or traded them for lesser contracts. It's probably going to be a rough one, but the future looks bright.
+ 
= 
). Could they have traded him last year? Sure, but the Hawks were in the playoffs come deadline day (just like Utah those years ago). I don't know how many times teams in the playoffs have traded their best player in a rebuilding move, but it can't be many. 