Dallas Offseason Review
Key Losses:
Losses:
A.J. Hammons
DeAndre Liggins
Jarrod Uthoff
Nicolas Brussino
Draft:
#9 Dennis Smith Jr.
Trades:
Liggins for 175k
Jarrod Uthoff for cash
Hammons for McRoberts 5.1m cash and a 2nd
Free Agency:
Nerlens Noel 4.1m Q/O
Dirk Nowitzki 2/10 (TO last year)
Dennis Smith Jr. rookie scale
Maxi Kleber 2 year min (first year gtd, 2nd nongtd)
Johnathan Motley two-year two-way contract.
Brandon Ashley, Gian Clavell, P.J. Dozier and Maalik Wayns
Current Depth Chart: (taken from bbinsiders)
(Missing Nerlens Noel as he just signed)
PG: Dennis Smith Jr., J.J Barea, Yogi Ferrell. Maalik Wayns, P.J. Dozier
SG: Seth Curry, Devin Harris, Gian Clavell
SF: Wesley Matthews, Dorian Finney-Smith
PF: Harrison Barnes, Dwight Powell, Josh McRoberts, Maxi Kleber, Brandon Ashley
C: Dirk Nowitzki, Salah Mejri
HartfordWhalers wrote:HartfordWhalers Review (switch to your name here)
Key Losses:
Losses:
Shrug.
Draft:
Loved the pick. The work was done by the teams in front of them, but Dallas finished it off. Granted, I also wouldn't have minded Monk, but DSJ was a better swing for the fences and graded amazingly with analytics.
I would have bought a 2nd rounder, perhaps even #39 back. Just for the story of Isaiah Hartenstein being drafted by Dirk's team. Or Ike Anigbogu would have been an interesting flier. But I wanted Dallas to take a second rounder, they aren't a deep team and they are rebuilding in ernest.
Trades:
5m in cash and a distant 2nd is a great return for an expiring mid level contract. In contrast, the Sixers got 5m in cash for selling #39 and #46 while using more than that cap space on a big one year deal for Amir. Dallas did their trades well, and didn't sacrifice any future flexibility.
Free Agency:
Ugh. Great draft. Very solid trades. And then free agency. With the only plan locking Noel up, Dallas... didn't lock Noel up. There is probably fault on both sides, but as a big fan of Noel I will point out that those questioning how he will do in free agency next year might want to look under the hood further. Most of this has been said elsewhere at times but:
Dallas net rating with Noel on: 1.7
Dallas net rating post trade with Noel off: -8.6
Noel lead Dallas in RPM and BPM.
And while Noel's defense is pretty well established but his swing traits (offense and rebounding) have been blossoming and dramatically so:
'15 16.1 points per 100 possessions, 49.3% TS%, 14.3 TRB%
'16 18.6 points per 100 possessions, 54.4% TS%, 15.0 TRB%
'17 21.3 points per 100 possessions, 62.2% TS%, 15.9 TRB%
Thus you see aggregate stats like BPM (or WS/48) go:
'15 .083 WS/48, 0.8 BPM
'16 .074 WS/48, 0.7 BPM
'17 .181 WS/48, 3.7 BPM
RPM is a little unfair to show the progression, because RPM biases to show progression. Still:
'15 -1.5 RPM (-4.85 Offense)
'16 -1.19 RPM (-3.48 Offense)
'17 1.25 RPM (-1.33 Offense)
Noel clearly isn't a 3 point shooter or a stretch big, what sort of type of player he is is known. But how effective he is has definitely changed dramatically. Part of that might definitely be a reduction in being asked to play out of his position/skill set, but the effect has still been looking like dramatic growth.
So, maybe I'm just a huge Noel fan but I can see him easily getting a 4/70 and picking his team next offseason. And having the chance to get a bunch more. If the Lakers strike out he is ideal, and if not Phx, Atlanta, Brooklyn, Orlando (although they really need to clean their books), Chicago all need young centers. And teams like Boston and Toronto (and Milwaukee) need defensive centers.
Current Depth Chart: (taken from bbinsiders)
Dennis Smith / Seth Curry / Wesley Matthews /Harrison Barnes / Dirk Nowitzki / Nerlens Noel
Only 5 of those 6 can start, and two are upcoming free agents. This will be worth watching.
Needs:
A long term deal on Noel. Flipping Mathews. Tanking this season and adding a top SG. A nice farewell for Dirk.
Additional Thoughts:
I know he has his fans, but I would flip Curry. I would be upset I missed out on the QPOn dump. I would also do some Kanter for Mathews deal and really try and tank.
Projected Win/Loss: 32-50 I had 34 wins, then said maybe less?
Off-Season Grade: D+Dallas lost a building block in my eyes even as they gained one in Smith. That makes this offseason much more of a staying in place, even if they got a younger and more under team control piece, than I would have liked. I downgraded this further from a C- as what was there besides taking a guy who fell into their lap? Getting some cash and a 2nd is solid but not a big needle move. That said, DSJ is a great fall into the lap.
Slava wrote:Slava’s Dallas Offseason Review
Key Losses:
Losses:
Dallas did bring in a few fringe players to take a closer look but none of them really cracked any significant rotation minutes to consider them a loss. The highest from this group is Brussino who logged about 500+ minutes over the season with no real notoriety.
I still have some hopes for Liggins finding his niche as a defensive minded wing with the Clippers.
Draft:
DSJ at #9 looks increasingly like a steal for the Mavericks. He is an extremely strong and athletic point guard with a lot of bounce and will likely thrive in screen and roll oriented NBA offenses. The prototype for him include ball dominant guards like Rose and Westbrook have had immense success in the league in the recent past. While he did have a very disjointed college season at NC State, he will enter the NBA into one of the most stable organizations which will undoubtedly help him orient himself better than most of his peers.
Trades:
McRoberts, if healthy can add some valuable rotation minutes as a back up center in some small line ups and Miami is paying for a majority of the salary anyways while kicking up a 2023 2nd, so not a bad trade.
Liggins and Uthoff brought in some cash as well to add to Morey’s salary ballast.
Free Agency:
The only major thing worth talking about while reviewing Dallas this summer is the Nerlens Noel situation.
Noel is a game changing player on the defensive end and Dallas pulled a fast one on Colangelo and the rest of the league by getting him for essentially two 2nd round picks. That was the hard part but now they have somehow complicated the easier part by getting him on the qualifying offer and losing his RFA rights.
I haven’t kept up with the negotiation offers and counter offers but if you devote $22M a year to Barnes and see him as a future PF, it makes every sense in the world to pay Noel as much and make him the center alongside him. So drawing the line at $15M/year and offering him a 4 year deal appears like woefully undervaluing the talent on hand.
Being an RFA and a low usage center was a double whammy for Noel so there were no offers for him to take to Dallas which further limited his options towards forcing Dallas’ hand. Other RFA centers, Len, Plumlee etc remain unsigned as well.
Cuban has always played the inefficiencies in the market so looking at it from his point of view, as an unrestricted free agent in a league wide low cap environment, here are Noel’s suitors in 2018:
Chicago: Have Robin Lopez/Felicio at center
Atlanta: A good possibility although Bud likes more on offense from his bigs
Nets, who don’t yet have max cap space to offer unless Lin opts out and the small matter of Mozgov being on the books for another two years in the same position.
Lakers, who will likely chase George (prayers up), LeBron etc and won’t spend much time on Noel unless LeBron and Rich Paul use their leverage to try to get Noel paid
Pacers & Jazz who already have Turner and Gobert/Favors at center
Philly: The wildcard if Embiid misses another season and they find a trade for Okafor but I doubt Noel is willing to sign up for that experience once more
So with bird rights and knowing Noel’s injury concerns, I think Dallas might still be alright and end up re-signing him unless they piss him off enough that he signs elsewhere for lesser money than being offered in Dallas out of spite (not a possibility I’d think).
Other than that, they got Dirk back for cheap. The NBA could use more Dirk.
Current Depth Chart:
PG: Dennis Smith Jr., J.J Barea, Yogi Ferrell. Maalik Wayns
SG: Wes Matthews, Seth Curry, Devin Harris, P.J. Dozier, Gian Clavell
SF: Harrison Barnes, Dorian Finney-Smith
PF: Dirk Nowitzki, Dwight Powell, Maxi Kleber, Brandon Ashley
C: Nerlens Noel, Josh McRoberts, Salah Mejri
They could certainly use some depth at the wing positions.
Needs:
Health
Re-signing Noel
No trades eating into 2018 cap
Find a trade for Powell if possible, preferably with no long term salary in return
Additional Thoughts:
Mavericks of last season were about league average defensively and had a bottom 5 offense. Addition of DSJ and Noel could add some much needed athleticism on offense and a full season with an engaged Noel playing for a contract could boost their defense up a few notches as well. Their record will depend on much the addition of DSJ can boost their offense.
Projected Win/Loss: 37-45
Being a bit conservative here and also taking into account the strength of Western Conference and the Southwest division.
Off-Season Grade: C
They didn’t do much wrong but they didn’t do much either. Its a very much incomplete offseason for a team treading waters.
bondom34 wrote:Bondom34's Dallas Offseason Review
Key Losses:
Losses:
A.J. Hammons
DeAndre Liggins
Jarrod Uthoff
Nicolas Brussino
Draft:
#9 Dennis Smith Jr.
Love this part, there's no real losses here to analyze in all honesty and DSJ looks like a great pick. The character concerns aren't something I'd worry about under RC and with Dirk around and he fits like a glove on a team in real need of a young PG to build around. Great pick, some luck he fell.
Trades:
Liggins for 175k
Jarrod Uthoff for cash
Hammons for McRoberts 5.1m cash and a 2nd
The only one here of any real consequence was McBob and cash for Hammons which I have as a pretty big value win for Dallas based on the amount of cash and sending back a little money to boot. Getting a second is nice value here.
Free Agency:
Nerlens Noel 4.1m Q/O
Dirk Nowitzki 2/10 (TO last year)
Dennis Smith Jr. rookie scale
Maxi Kleber 2 year min (first year gtd, 2nd nongtd)
Johnathan Motley two-year two-way contract.
Brandon Ashley, Gian Clavell, P.J. Dozier and Maalik Wayns
OK, easy stuff first, Dirk is awesome and a national treasure for two countries at once which is an amazing accomplishment. I wish he'd never get older and never retire. A few smaller deals, I like Dozier honestly and don't know about most of the others, I only vaguely know Dozier but remember good things.
Now the tough one to look at in Noel. I don't like the situation for either side here. Dallas really looks to have offered a fair deal at 4/$70, and Noel didn't want much more. But he pushed and they didn't give to their credit which I like. In the end it's a bad situation but I think Noel loses here a lot more than if Dallas caved and gave out bad money to a guy I'm not sure is worth it given his injury history so far and somewhat small sample size with the team. I think he's a solid big man but I've not been a huge fan and think they were in the right here. Next year he's a UFA with Cousins and DJ on the market and only a few teams with any possible need with enough money to make back what he lost this year. It's not good for Dallas but much worse for Noel to me.
Current Depth Chart: (taken from bbinsiders)
(Missing Nerlens Noel as he just signed)
PG: Dennis Smith Jr., J.J Barea, Yogi Ferrell. Maalik Wayns, P.J. Dozier
SG: Wesley Matthews, Seth Curry, Devin Harris, Gian Clavell
SF: Harrison Barnes, Dorian Finney-Smith
PF: Dirk Nowitzki, Dwight Powell, Josh McRoberts, Maxi Kleber, Brandon Ashley
C: Nerlens Noel, Salah Mejri
Needs:
Growth and more of a youth movement. Glad to see them making one and like the progress so far, I think Noel may end up back in a year with a dry market.
Additional Thoughts:
There wasn't much to grade here and I don't blame them a ton for Noel,so overall not much to say.
Projected Win/Loss:
32-50
Off-Season Grade: C+
Mamba4Goat wrote:Mamba4Goat's Dallas Offseason Review
Key Losses:
No key losses, nothing to see here.
Losses:
Still nothing really. I don't think anyone is losing any sleep on any of the guys Dallas let go of this off season.
Draft:
I like picking Smith a lot. Dallas needed a point guard and Smith looks to be a nice piece, especially for the 9th pick, going forward.
Trades:
Cuban is getting paid this off season! Nothing really notable here though.
Free Agency:
Man, Dirk is really something else. I love that he keeps giving crazy discounts to the team. Really a true testament of how truly great of a person he is. Noel taking the QO puts them in a weird place but I'll expand on that later.
Current Depth Chart: (taken from bbinsiders)
(Missing Nerlens Noel as he just signed)
PG: Dennis Smith Jr., J.J Barea, Yogi Ferrell. Maalik Wayns, P.J. Dozier
SG: Seth Curry, Devin Harris, Gian Clavell
SF: Wesley Matthews, Dorian Finney-Smith
PF: Harrison Barnes, Dwight Powell, Josh McRoberts, Maxi Kleber, Brandon Ashley
C: Dirk Nowitzki, Salah Mejri
Man, I remember looking at Dallas and thinking they need youth in the worst way, and now they're slowly resembling a young rebuilding team.
Needs:
They need a young guy with all star potential. A legit pillar in their rebuild to work around. Smith+who? being complimented by Barnes/Noel/Etc. going forward. They also need to resolve the Noel situation, especially if he causes chemistry/lockerroom issues.
Additional Thoughts:
I honestly don't think Noel taking the QO is a loss for Dallas. Loss for him, but not for Dallas. I honestly don't think Noel has the market he think he does. He's losing a decent amount of money by taking the QO to the point of if he took a 4/80 deal elsewhere next year, he'd still lose money as opposed to taking a 4/70 deal now. (Opportunity cost and such) I don't think he'll see a better market next year though. The center market is very diluted and unless he has a crazy breakout season, I foresee him being at a loss.
Projected Win/Loss: 33-49 Ergg...33-49. I see them being too good to be the worst team around, but too bad to actually do something. Carlisle is just too good.
Off-Season Grade:B They had a good draft and a really quiet off season. Not giving Noel a crazy contract and having him accept the QO cancel each other out imo. And Dennis Smith just makes this above average.
Texas Chuck wrote:Texas Chuck Review
Key Losses:
Losses:
Nicolas Brussino -- this one disappoints me a bit.
Draft:
Trades:
I'm okay with these trades. Don't care about any of the players we sent out and so getting a future 2nd and Cuban some cash is okay with me. Plus I called the McBob deal which always makes me happy.
Free Agency:
The Noel situation is horrible. This was all they had to get done this summer and they failed to do so. Most of the blame appears to be on Noel and unrealistic expectations, but bottom line is a guy the Mavs needed to be a cornerstone is not under team control past this year and the relationship is obviously not in a great place for him to move this quickly to sign the QO. Dirk for cheap is fine I guess tho might as well have paid him at this point. I expect nothing out of the minor signings.
Current Depth Chart: (taken from bbinsiders)
PG: Dennis Smith Jr., J.J Barea, Yogi Ferrell. Maalik Wayns, P.J. Dozier
SG: Wes Matthews /Seth Curry, Devin Harris, Gian Clavell
SF: Harrison Barnes/ Dorian Finney-Smith
PF: Dirk Nowitski/ Josh McRoberts, Maxi Kleber, Brandon Ashley
C: Nerlens Noel/ Salah Mejri / Dwight Powell/ Jeff Withey
Needs:
A cornerstone player. Long-term answers at every spot but PG and whichever forward spot Barnes plays. Decision made on both Noel and Curry futures with the team. More wings with size.
Additional Thoughts:
The Noel contract casts a pall over everything. We had two key pieces in place and maybe a 3rd with Barnes and maybe a 4th with Seth. Now we have all our hopes on Junior. Yikes. Future still seems uncertain and the present is meh.
Projected Win/Loss: 36-46 Rick Carlisle is still coaching and if Noel can play 65+ games that's going to help. But they aren't really as good as 36 wins so when others project fewer wins I get it.
Off-Season Grade: F It's an F. I had them at a B+ with a shot at an A if Noel came in at the right price. But Dallas can't afford to be losing talented young potential defensive cornerstones like this. Whoever's fault it is, some of it has to fall on the Mavs FO for not getting him locked up.
