[Woj] Draft Reform debate is back UPDATE: now official

[HartfordWhalers]

The NBA is aggressively pursuing draft lottery reform that could be voted into legislation and instituted by the 2019 draft, league sources told ESPN.

Commissioner Adam Silver is a strong advocate to deincentivize tanking by implementing lower odds on the NBA's worst teams to gain the top picks in the draft, league sources said.

Commissioner Adam Silver wants to get rid of teams' tanking to improve their chances in the draft lottery.

The proposed measures would also increase the chances of better teams making a jump into the draft lottery. The NBA's 14 non-playoff teams compromise the league's annual draft lottery system.

The NBA competition committee, comprised of several general managers and coaches, is expected to vote next week on sending a formal recommendation to the board of governors for final passage, league sources said.

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/20621318/reform-nba-draft-lottery-voted-17-18-season

[HartfordWhalers]

the NBA's currently proposed legislation could allow that team to drop from first to fifth in the lottery, league sources said. This would include a domino effect through the lottery, where the second-worst record -- presently dropping no lower than fourth -- could fall to sixth. Then the No. 3 team could drop as far as seven, and on down, league sources said.

Currently, the teams with the three worst records have an ascending chance of winning the No. 1 pick, including (No. 3) 15.6 percent, (No. 2) 19.9 percent and (No. 1) 25 percent.

The NBA's proposal would flatten those odds and give the three teams with the worst record the same percentage of earning the No. 1 overall pick, league sources said. Now, the worst record to the fifth-worst record is a gap of 25 percent to 8.8 percent, but new legislation would tighten that difference significantly, league sources said.

For example, the fifth-worst team would only have a few percentage points less than those teams with newly equal odds among the three worst teams, league sources said.

[HartfordWhalers]

So:
(Completely) flat odds 1-3 {The worst team would be looking at odds cut ~ in half}.
Much smaller drop off after that.
Lotto draw for 1-4 instead of 1-3.

[hoosierdaddy34]

Thank goodness. Nothing worse than tanking.

[clpp01]

This won't solve the tanking problem, as long as there is an incentive to be worse then someone else you will have teams tanking. Teams that are at the bottom of the league will still do what they can to ensure that they end up with the best odds possible even if it is only a minor increase, to them its better to finish top 3 and have a 20% chance of winning the lottery then finish #4 and have a 15% chance or whatever the actual percentages would become.

[Mystical Apples]

Let's just call it what it is.

A. Age rules
B. The existence of a draft itself
C. 4 years of cheap, controlled labor in a salary capped league
D. The oxymoron of "Restricted Free" Agency
E. Revenue sharing
F. Owners hold the appreciating asset, municipalities partially the depreciating.
G. The Player's Union screwing over younger members.

etc...

[hoosierdaddy34]

This won't solve the tanking problem, as long as there is an incentive to be worse then someone else you will have teams tanking. Teams that are at the bottom of the league will still do what they can to ensure that they end up with the best odds possible even if it is only a minor increase, to them its better to finish top 3 and have a 20% chance of winning the lottery then finish #4 and have a 15% chance or whatever the actual percentages would become.

Of course it won't. But anything going in the direction of making it potentially less rewarding is always better.

[Cappy_Smurf]

I'm a fan of a small market team, and am generally against most of the suggestions to change the way the lottery works. Having said that, I support these particular changes. They address the problem somewhat without going too far. I'm looking forward to seeing how it actually works out.

[Daddy 801]

I'd rather see players have to go to the combine and be free to sign with whomever. Let good management pay off. Teams over the cap won't be able to sign good young players. I have a lot more to say about this, but small incremental changes to the percentages aren't going to do a whole lot but make teams rank longer. I guess as a Jazz fan that has a management team that will never rank I should be in favor of this, but I'm not.


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[Texas Chuck]

Here we going fixing a problem that doesn't exist. Here is the list of teams that have won a title by tanking and stacking top picks:



Yep, that's none. And no Cleveland doesn't count despite Kyrie and the trading of 2 others for Love because that title is due to Lebron's return. Even the Thunder who nailed the draft better than any team could ever realistically hope to got no titles out it. And mostly we just see teams staying in the lottery.

The hidden truth in this league is that there are only about a dozen players or so who really matter at all. You have to get one of those guys and tanking to pick high every year is no guarantee plus the 4 year rookie deals mean you are having to pay guys before your team gets good as result of them anyway and its hard to escape the treadmill of mediocrity.

I get so tired of all the whining and angst about a system that has nothing to do with the imbalances in the league and never has.

[NYG]

Here we going fixing a problem that doesn't exist. Here is the list of teams that have won a title by tanking and stacking top picks:



Yep, that's none. And no Cleveland doesn't count despite Kyrie and the trading of 2 others for Love because that title is due to Lebron's return. Even the Thunder who nailed the draft better than any team could ever realistically hope to got no titles out it. And mostly we just see teams staying in the lottery.

The hidden truth in this league is that there are only about a dozen players or so who really matter at all. You have to get one of those guys and tanking to pick high every year is no guarantee plus the 4 year rookie deals mean you are having to pay guys before your team gets good as result of them anyway and its hard to escape the treadmill of mediocrity.

I get so tired of all the whining and angst about a system that has nothing to do with the imbalances in the league and never has.

Yeah, a way worse problem the league has is those dozen or so players who really matter coordinating signing together in free agency instead of playing against each other.

[loserX]

Here we going fixing a problem that doesn't exist. Here is the list of teams that have won a title by tanking and stacking top picks:



Yep, that's none. And no Cleveland doesn't count despite Kyrie and the trading of 2 others for Love because that title is due to Lebron's return. Even the Thunder who nailed the draft better than any team could ever realistically hope to got no titles out it. And mostly we just see teams staying in the lottery.

The hidden truth in this league is that there are only about a dozen players or so who really matter at all. You have to get one of those guys and tanking to pick high every year is no guarantee plus the 4 year rookie deals mean you are having to pay guys before your team gets good as result of them anyway and its hard to escape the treadmill of mediocrity.

I get so tired of all the whining and angst about a system that has nothing to do with the imbalances in the league and never has.

While I agree that tanking hasn't ever really led anything, I don't think that's the point. The point is that (a few) teams are still seen to be doing it, and the league has to at least be seen to be trying to discourage it. (Process, not results!)

The league still has to sell a product, and no one wants to be the commissioner who has to say "NBA 2018: almost all our teams give a crap!"

You can't legislate intent, so there is no system that will simultaneously fix tanking *and* allow the worst teams an opportunity to get better. But the league has an image problem, or at least risks acquiring an image problem, that they have to fix. I for one don't mind the fairly moderate measures they're talking about here.

[NYG]

I'd rather see players have to go to the combine and be free to sign with whomever. Let good management pay off. Teams over the cap won't be able to sign good young players. I have a lot more to say about this, but small incremental changes to the percentages aren't going to do a whole lot but make teams rank longer. I guess as a Jazz fan that has a management team that will never rank I should be in favor of this, but I'm not.


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I think a better approach to this concept is by giving a "rookie exception" where you the first year of a rookie salary doesn't count against the cap, but you get a specific dollar amount you're allowed to sign 1 rookie with. The worst team in the league gets a significantly higher exception than the second worst team in the league and so on.

Players can take way less money to sign with the best team or the most money with the worst team.
Teams will get way more punished by poor management when that second year salary counts against the cap and you delegated a lot of money towards a bust.
You can trade exceptions instead of draft picks meaning the Celtics in this case would have owned the Nets exception value in this draft.

[Texas Chuck]

You can't legislate intent, so there is no system that will simultaneously fix tanking *and* allow the worst teams an opportunity to get better. But the league has an image problem, or at least risks acquiring an image problem, that they have to fix. I for one don't mind the fairly moderate measures they're talking about here.

Meh I honestly think the NBA twitterverse has created this image problem. Whether its the guy trying to be the genius who "fixes" the problem or just guys who have never really stopped to think what actually is the problem here. There is so much noise that it makes it seem like the league has a problem that it doesn't have.

As you say, you can't stop the typical end of year tanking unless you are willing to something more radical that what they are talking about, and its not tanking for teams like Chicago or Dallas to just sit on their hands in a summer like this knowing there are no moves that improve them enough for this season so better to just hope for organic growth of some youth and adding another high pick. Team who go the typical Orlando or Phoenix route where they start to get a little hope and rush out and sign the wrong veterans is actually worse for the fans of those teams because it just prolongs the period of irrelevance.

Really the only problem is Philadelphia just openly admitted what they were doing which got "purists" all worked up into a frenzy and then again the basketball twitterverse is so much more interested in impressing each other than actually getting things right or in proper perspective.

[Daddy 801]

Here we going fixing a problem that doesn't exist. Here is the list of teams that have won a title by tanking and stacking top picks:



Yep, that's none. And no Cleveland doesn't count despite Kyrie and the trading of 2 others for Love because that title is due to Lebron's return. Even the Thunder who nailed the draft better than any team could ever realistically hope to got no titles out it. And mostly we just see teams staying in the lottery.

The hidden truth in this league is that there are only about a dozen players or so who really matter at all. You have to get one of those guys and tanking to pick high every year is no guarantee plus the 4 year rookie deals mean you are having to pay guys before your team gets good as result of them anyway and its hard to escape the treadmill of mediocrity.

I get so tired of all the whining and angst about a system that has nothing to do with the imbalances in the league and never has.

Yeah, a way worse problem the league has is those dozen or so players who really matter coordinating signing together in free agency instead of playing against each other.

Ding, ding, ding. We have a winner. What's the real issue? Tanking to get a young guy who might help win in a few years, or the elite players banding together and colluding behind the scenes.

You know it's not an issue the league is going to do anything about because the fix is so easy, yet they don't do a damn thing.


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[bondom34]

I get so tired of all the whining and angst about a system that has nothing to do with the imbalances in the league and never has.

[stitches]

I'm a fan of a small market team, and am generally against most of the suggestions to change the way the lottery works. Having said that, I support these particular changes. They address the problem somewhat without going too far. I'm looking forward to seeing how it actually works out.

I don't think small market teams will agree to huge changes so probably small ones like those are good. IMO this is ripe for unintended consequences. For example... if the cut off is at 3, you might eliminate tanking for the no. 1 spot by a few teams, but you might create tanking for 3 spots by many more teams.

[LordCovington33]

Thank goodness. Nothing worse than tanking.

You know that Hinkie was an advocate of tanking, right? So, why do you have his avatar?

[trwi7]

The point is that (a few) teams are still seen to be doing it, and the league has to at least be seen to be trying to discourage it. (Process, not results!)

But why? Obviously getting a star player matters the most in the NBA but there was no uproar when teams were tanking for Andrew Luck. There was no uproar when teams were tanking for Connor McDavid. Why does the NBA feel like they need to do anything about this?

Teams can be run however they want to be by the owners and general managers. Why is the NBA trying to change this? Would the Sixers be better off today had they not tanked for several years and instead signed a bunch of mediocre free agents to get them between 35 and 40 wins? Would their attendance be better? Would they have upward mobility in the league?

If they're going to do this, come up with an actual solution. Don't half ass it and say we've done what we could. That's exactly what this is.

[loserX]

You can't legislate intent, so there is no system that will simultaneously fix tanking *and* allow the worst teams an opportunity to get better. But the league has an image problem, or at least risks acquiring an image problem, that they have to fix. I for one don't mind the fairly moderate measures they're talking about here.

Meh I honestly think the NBA twitterverse has created this image problem. Whether its the guy trying to be the genius who "fixes" the problem or just guys who have never really stopped to think what actually is the problem here. There is so much noise that it makes it seem like the league has a problem that it doesn't have.

As you say, you can't stop the typical end of year tanking unless you are willing to something more radical that what they are talking about, and its not tanking for teams like Chicago or Dallas to just sit on their hands in a summer like this knowing there are no moves that improve them enough for this season so better to just hope for organic growth of some youth and adding another high pick. Team who go the typical Orlando or Phoenix route where they start to get a little hope and rush out and sign the wrong veterans is actually worse for the fans of those teams because it just prolongs the period of irrelevance.

Really the only problem is Philadelphia just openly admitted what they were doing which got "purists" all worked up into a frenzy and then again the basketball twitterverse is so much more interested in impressing each other than actually getting things right or in proper perspective.

I don't think "end of the year tanking" is the problem though. There's a big difference between giving up on a season in February, and giving up on it the previous June. Yes, Philadelphia deliberately tanking three straight seasons is precisely the impetus for the change, there's no secret to that.

Silver can't have teams going into a season deliberately trying not to be competitive. Again he has to market the NBA season to fans around the world, and it doesn't look good to have one or more teams punting on the season before Game 1. So he's trying to reduce the benefit to doing that.