Value: Crowder vs Wilson+Mil 2018 1st

[mademan]

Inspired from a different thread. Who has more value? Jae Crowder or Wilson/Mil 1st package?

[Mykhyn]

Add a poll.

I lean toward Crowder for the Cavs.

[mademan]

Add a poll.

I lean toward Crowder for the Cavs.

Not just for Cavs. Just who has more value around the league

[Mykhyn]

Add a poll.

I lean toward Crowder for the Cavs.

Not just for Cavs. Just who has more value around the league

Cavs are what matters as far as a trade goes.

I suspect Bucks would jump all over this if they traded Parker.

For other teams it's just a question of do they want to win or rebuild?

[bondom34]

I love Crowder but the 2nd package is basically 2 firsts. I think Crowder is worth one.

So the Bucks package for me.

[skones]

Add a poll.

I lean toward Crowder for the Cavs.

Not just for Cavs. Just who has more value around the league

Cavs are what matters as far as a trade goes.

I suspect Bucks would jump all over this if they traded Parker.

For other teams it's just a question of do they want to win or rebuild?

I think it's a question of market value, not whether the Cavs would do the deal. Sometimes teams don't deal players because their value to the team is greater than the "market value." I believe the OP is asking the "market value" question. Thus, the Cavs wouldn't dictate the response here, competitive offers would.

For me, I'd lean Crowder, but I also think Wilson is a bucket of bolts.

[rugbyrugger23]

I love Crowder but the 2nd package is basically 2 firsts. I think Crowder is worth one.

So the Bucks package for me.

Basically? It is exactly 2 1sts. Wilson a recent 17th overall in this 2017 draft. And Bucks 2018 1st, which is fair to say 15-25 is safe landing spot for that pick.

In a value vacuum, 27yo Crowder isn't worth that. To a team going for win-now, Crowder MIGHT fetch a recent 1st/rookie and a future 1st from a playoff team in 25+ range for sure.

And as others have said, Cavs shouldn't be looking to trade him. Too cheap and too great of a fit -- Cavs would want more value vs. his actual value to move the trade-Crowder-needle.

[Ron Swanson]

If there's no protection on the pick then this is easily Wilson + 2018 1st. With lotto protection? Still more valuable to a young or rebuilding team, but Crowder probably has more value to a contender or any team with championship aspirations the next 2 years.

[Soulyss]

Crowder... Milwaukee should be a playoff team in the limp EAST... Crowder from an analytics standpoint might be one of the best contracts in Basketball.

[Jaw]

I mean to the Cavs or any team looking to contend for a championship in next 3 years I think its Crowder. In general however, two essentially mid-round picks is probably more valuable than Crowder who at the end of the day is just a very good role player on a cheap contract for next 3 years. I think Crowder's general value is closer to one mid round pick.

If I were the Bucks I'd highly consider it. If I could dump Henson or Delly as part of it I'd take it pretty quickly.

[jayjaysee]

I think Jae is worth more than a 2nd or a lesser asset with either Wilson or a first... But not worth both... And I think Crowder+2nd would be more valuable to most teams in playoff range.

So Cleveland could easily make up the value gap in a three team trade..

I don't know the context though.. Like I don't think Cleveland should trade Jae for those two even though it's good value and saves a lot of tax.


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[Swoosh_Stripes]

The poll should've been Crowder plus Cedi Osman since that was the package discussed that Cleveland Cleveland would use to replace Wilson and a first.


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[lordjeff05]

Its weird but it seems like the value of players, freshly picked, is way less than the value of the picks themselves.

[Jaw]

Its weird but it seems like the value of players, freshly picked, is way less than the value of the picks themselves.

This is very true and I think it makes sense. There is upside and mystique in the unknown plus if you have the pick you have more flexibility in the player you can pick (not everyone may have taken Wilson with the 17th pick since they may have been higher on another prospect or he doesn't fit their team well) and if you didn't want it its easier to move.

[M-C-G]

Its weird but it seems like the value of players, freshly picked, is way less than the value of the picks themselves.

This is very true and I think it makes sense. There is upside and mystique in the unknown plus if you have the pick you have more flexibility in the player you can pick (not everyone may have taken Wilson with the 17th pick since they may have been higher on another prospect or he doesn't fit their team well) and if you didn't want it its easier to move.

Yep, yep, yep. I've made the point before, if the Celtics were trading in 2014 and 2015 prior to the draft it was TWO SHINY FIRST ROUND DRAFT PICKS, the moment those became James Young and RJ Hunter they lost about 80% of their value. It is a testament to how much we overrate draft picks on this board. The reality is the return on them, especially outside the top couple is not very great. We are all guilty of that here.

[jayjaysee]

Its weird but it seems like the value of players, freshly picked, is way less than the value of the picks themselves.

Except if the guy is wearing my team's jersey. Then he is bumped up on average a draft tier....

And if this thread is actually comparing Jae+Cedi to Wilson+2018 first... Then I have Cleveland a good amount higher.


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[FNQ]

I love Crowder but the 2nd package is basically 2 firsts. I think Crowder is worth one.

So the Bucks package for me.

Basically? It is exactly 2 1sts. Wilson a recent 17th overall in this 2017 draft. And Bucks 2018 1st, which is fair to say 15-25 is safe landing spot for that pick.

In a value vacuum, 27yo Crowder isn't worth that. To a team going for win-now, Crowder MIGHT fetch a recent 1st/rookie and a future 1st from a playoff team in 25+ range for sure.

And as others have said, Cavs shouldn't be looking to trade him. Too cheap and too great of a fit -- Cavs would want more value vs. his actual value to move the trade-Crowder-needle.

Thank you for this, because up until this post I had no idea who Wilson was.

I think Crowder has more value as an established 3+D guy vs a pair of mid round 1sts

[rugbyrugger23]

Results of Poll surprises me. Personally I think its is HEAVILY skewed due to Crowder being on a win-now Cavs. And to same degree Bucks being a win-now Team -- both should value more a very useful Crowder vs. 2 unusable in the playoffs rookie/1st.

Let's change the scenario. A three team trade:

Cavs send Crowder to Bucks...

Bucks send Wilson + 2018 top 5 protected to bottom 5 rebuilding third team, who has a win-now player Cavs want instead of Crowder (maybe a player who plays guard or a big, bacially Cavs change it up).

Does the Third Team value Crowder or Wilson + Bucks Top 5 Protected more? What package has more value?

If Cavs add Cedi to Crowder, does that change answer/value proposition?

[Patsfan1081]

First of all I think Wilson was a bit of a reach at 17, putting that aside though people are really underselling the value of an established vet on one of the best contracts in the league. It's also not two firsts, the pick itself losses value after it's made and now you have to evaluate the player. I wasn't high on Wilson to begin with(thought he should have stayed another year) and he def didn't impress this summer. The chances of either Wilson or the pick ever giving you the production of Crowder, who was 20th in rpm last season, are very slim.

[Patsfan1081]

Results of Poll surprises me. Personally I think its is HEAVILY skewed due to Crowder being on a win-now Cavs. And to same degree Bucks being a win-now Team -- both should value more a very useful Crowder vs. 2 unusable in the playoffs rookie/1st.

Let's change the scenario. A three team trade:

Cavs send Crowder to Bucks...

Bucks send Wilson + 2018 top 5 protected to bottom 5 rebuilding third team, who has a win-now player Cavs want instead of Crowder (maybe a player who plays guard or a big, bacially Cavs change it up).

Does the Third Team value Crowder or Wilson + Bucks Top 5 Protected more? What package has more value?

If Cavs add Cedi to Crowder, does that change answer/value proposition?

I'm still not getting why Cleveland wouldn't want Crowder, what exactly would they move him for? I'm sure Boston would have been happy to have swapped out Yabulsele and the Clips pick, which would have been a good comp for the Wilson comp. However I think Cleveland wanted Crowder because of his versatility.