ATL Move Up in Draft (with MIN)

shrink · Post #1 » by **shrink** » Wed Jan 17, 2018 6:29 pm

If the season ended today, besides their high lottery pick, ATL would own picks 25 (MIN), 28 (HOU), 31 (ATL 2nd). Like everyone else, I would expect ATL to try to consolidate those three picks to move up, but that's always tough.

MIN has the OKC pick, and with the congestion near the middle, and OKC's feast-or-famine outlook this year, the pick could be anywhere from 12-25. Today it's 20.

I think there are a lot of possibilities for a small deal between MIN and ATL, but let's start with this:

MIN GETS: MIN 1st, ATL 2nd, plus a little value
ATL GETS: OKC 1st, 2019 MIA 2nd

ATL consolidates, and doesn't add too much youth in one season. For MIN, they step back in the draft. I don't think that the difference in 2nd rounders justifies the improvement in first rounders, and the chance the OKC pick is pretty good, so MIN gets a little more value.

Fortunately, there are several little tweaks between the teams to adjust for value. Shabazz for Babbitt for injury insurance to a MIN swingman? Aldrich for Belinelli ($6.6), Ilyasova ($6.0), or perhaps Dedmon ($6.0, $6.3 to). Thibs is never going to get much value from any bench player (so none of these would remove a pick), but moving the $2 mil on Aldrich next season helps with the lux a little (though they'd stretch it to just $0.67). Both? MIN also has their own 2nd (55) if that helps.

How would you set it up?

Post #2 » by **MoneyTalks41890** » Wed Jan 17, 2018 6:47 pm

I think that this is something that should be revisited when the order is known. Looking at the standings it's possible, but not likely, that OKC could close the 4 game gap between them and MIN. But it's more likely that OKC could drop and the pick could end up late teens. I think that's too much uncertainty for now.

shrink · Post #3 » by **shrink** » Wed Jan 17, 2018 7:12 pm

MoneyTalks41890 wrote:I think that this is something that should be revisited when the order is known. Looking at the standings it's possible, but not likely, that OKC could close the 4 game gap between them and MIN. But it's more likely that OKC could drop and the pick could end up late teens. I think that's too much uncertainty for now.

I assume by "revisiting later," you mean the trade deadline and not this summer? I agree. If we go past the trade deadline, all the options disappear with the expiring players.

Mainly, I was curious which team you thought would be more risk-averse on the OKC pick? ATL worrying that they make the trade and the pick gets worse, or MIN worrying that they make the trade and the pick gets better? I also agree with you that this pick could end up anywhere, and there is a lot of uncertainty.

Post #4 » by **MoneyTalks41890** » Wed Jan 17, 2018 7:16 pm

shrink wrote:
MoneyTalks41890 wrote:I think that this is something that should be revisited when the order is known. Looking at the standings it's possible, but not likely, that OKC could close the 4 game gap between them and MIN. But it's more likely that OKC could drop and the pick could end up late teens. I think that's too much uncertainty for now.

I assume by "revisiting later," you mean the trade deadline and not this summer? I agree. If we go past the trade deadline, all the options disappear with the expiring players.

Mainly, I was curious which team you thought would be more risk-averse on the OKC pick? ATL worrying that they make the trade and the pick gets worse, or MIN worrying that they make the trade and the pick gets better? I also agree with you that this pick could end up anywhere, and there is a lot of uncertainty.

I was speaking off-season, but the new CBA allowed for more conditions on draft picks right? Wonder how far that goes and if that could be helpful for a deadline deal here.