Post#36 » by JasonStern » Tue May 29, 2018 5:20 am
finally drunk enough to post my thoughts, so enjoy/avoid.
nobody knows what Portland should do this summer. the team is literally stuck in a treadmill situation.
the obvious casual fan thought is to blow it up - trade Dame and CJ for picks, build around young talent in Nurkic and Collins, and see what happens. but long term fans will realize that the Hinkie model is nothing new. the Sonics/Thunder did it before them. and what came from their Durant/Westbrook/Harden/Ibaka dynasty? one finals appearance. but even before then, the Blazers tanked. took THE KING OF FLAIR, NO ONE CAN COMPARE, TO SEBASTIAN TELFAIR. passed on Chris Paul because they had Telfair. drafted Brandon Roy only to lose him to injuries. acquired LaMarcus Aldridge only to lose him in free agency. passed on Kevin Durant to draft a domestic abusing alcoholic in Greg Oden. and then you have an owner in Paul Allen that has fought cancer and very likely does not want to sit through a long rebuild - in fact, very believable rumors suggest that Rich Cho was fired for wanting to go down that path as opposed to maximizing what opportunity was provided.
so being the "RealGM", our objective is not to win a championship, but rather to provide the most entertaining team to a passive aggressive owner. unfortunately, the team is capped out without much talent, dealing with flaws that have been mitigated so far. they do have a face of the franchise, which is a huge advantage. but he's also entering his prime and lacks a supporting cast. so what do you do?
Olshey - fire his ass. no question there.
Stotts - this is a huge question. the Blazers have maxed out their potential under Stotts. he's a great regular season coach, but given time, opposing coaches can out-scheme him. but he's still an amazing regular season coach. so if you can replace him with a great coach, you take that. but odds are even if you upgrade, you make it harder to make the playoffs due to the lack of talent the team has.
Dame - off limits. it could easily take a decade or three to replace him.
McCollum - should be moved for better fitting pieces, but probably won't. you have to shop him, but I get if you don't make a move to "sell high". but if his value is what the trade board seemingly thinks it is, on occasion...
Nurkic - tell him to find the best contract he can and then match it. he is young enough to be a piece you can rebuild around with Collins. should you? no, but despite the "young team" narrative, this is a team lacking rookie scale talent.
picks - Portland is in a good position pick-wise as they do not owe any, but their late season rally moved them from #14 (no playoffs) to #24. given a lack of overall talent, you can only include a future pick in a trade if it brings back proven talent. imagine if Dame gets injured - how far would Portland fall? that said, #24 isn't as valuable as Blazers fans make it out to be, so if a reasonably priced veteran, salary relief, or an intriguing prospect that a team has buyers' remorse over becomes available, trade the pick.
Collins, #24, Swanigan, etc. - you kind of have to hold onto them unless an opportunity presents itself. what kind of opportunity? let's say LeBron leaves Cleveland. that probably puts Kevin Love on the market. Portland would be stupid to not make an offer to build around Dame at the potential long-term expense (see Butler and Cousins), although other teams likely can out-bid Portland due to a lack of assets. but you still have to ask about a Collins+#24+future 1st style package.
The Luxury Tax Red Flag - Turner, Leonard, Harkless, etc.
Harkless is neutral value, and I imagine a team that strikes out in free agency would't mind absorbing his contract. when he shows up, he's a really good player. unfortunately, he doesn't show up 82 games a year.
Turner is massively overpaid, and the best option Portland likely has is to ride his contract out. but if he can be moved for a similarly overpriced player - Ibaka? - Portland needs to jump at that. unless Stotts is replaced, which is risky, Turner just doesn't fit the style of play the Blazers run, so might as well gamble on a better fit.
Leonard - ideally, you ride out his contract and bash Olshey. but if you were the owner looking at $15+ million a season, the stretch option ($5 million/year for 4 years) looks really good despite its four year consequences.
the one trade I've posted and like for both teams is Harkless (neutral value)+#25 (positive value)+Leonard (negative value) for Carroll (neutral value). saves Portland $5 million this season (plus luxury tax) and gets Portland out of $20 million next season while providing them with a stopgap veteran. meanwhile the Nets get a pick they can hopefully combine to move up in the draft and a young-ish player in Harkless in exchange for spreading Carroll's salary out across two seasons. by no means is it a home run trade for either team, but it remains one of the most realistic moves that I can see. Nets fans hate it because they think they can land a big name free agent with their cap space, but as a fan of a team that has Turner, offered Parsons, offered Monroe, offered Hibbert, offered Turkoglu, etc., I'd be cautious about spending free agency money for the sake of spending free agency moeny.
the rest of the cast - is important for being a high 40s win team versus a low 40s win team. but realistically if your playoff chances stem on retaining (and paying luxury tax for) an Ed Davis or Shabazz Napier, your roster has bigger problems, which goes back to the "fire Olshey" comment earlier. FWIW I've always liked Ed Davis.
"You can't go 0-82 without starting 0-3"
- Chauncey Billups
